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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

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The density comparison is unfair. The US density is low too if you include the farmland and the mountains and deserts. Aukland's density of 3,400 per sq mile is the same as where I live in Chicago, but our rate of infection is over 10 times higher. Manhattan is, of course, one of the densest cities in the developed world.

I think you're getting hung up on density when that's not really the salient detail. IMHO the NZ response was successful in large part because they controlled entry. They're already a pretty isolated island, but very early on they routed all ingress traffic through Aukland (although most of it already ran through there), and started quarantining and monitoring everyone entering. This allowed them to clamp down on the initial infection, which meant that the high compliance with distancing/stay-at-home was highly effective.

Plus, it's really a pretty small country - it's pretty comparable to Colorado in both population and area, but even then Aukland metro is noticeably smaller than Denver metro - roughly half the size. This means that overall they are pretty spread out even if there are small-ish pockets of higher density. Controlling entry + engaged populace + relatively low density = pretty good recipe for control. Unfortunately a pretty unique situation so maybe not one that we can look to as an example to follow - very very few places can control and monitor entry as well as NZ
 
Is NY following the same pattern as elsewhere, where a vast majority of deaths were at nursing homes and similar facilities?
Here in the UK (or to be precise England and Wales, Scotland has an independant NHS which reports via its devolved government separately) the figures only include those dying in hospital with Covid-19.
Deaths in nursing homes and in the community are not included, seem to be higher than average but so far much fewer than half the total apparently. The daily official count depends on when it is weekend so the figures per week are probably OK but the daily less so.
The only way to have a bit of an idea of the reality is the published figures of excess mortality compared to yearly data. Again not super accurate but another data point, and probably the best we can get at the moment IMO.
I am pessimistic by nature, according to my wife, but my approach is definitely caution. It is better to over estimate than under estimate the problem when looking for a solution, particularly since the optimistic view is mainly being touted by people obsessed by money. We will have to realise that everybodies economy, national or personal, will be badly affected. We can't wish it away. I have lost about ⅓, only Amazon shareholders and the like will gain...
There is also a vast gulf between one bit of data imlying a lot of people have had the virus and no symptoms and others where there are things like people having early heart attacks or strokes and then being found to have the virus but not had fever or other expected symptoms, ie it could be much better or much worse than we know just now.

https://science.sciencemag.org/cont...4NvzDZfPBnR0Ke8_r_0DtCQRPoRsMhnaH3U2ehojL_gwA
 
The density comparison is unfair.
I wasn't trying pass blame or take credit away from NZs effort to curb the spread.
The numbers are interesting though. Total US pop density is 94 /sq mile. or 4 times more than NZ.
As for Auckland specifically, 1210 people per square kilometer , still a far cry from New York.
Although I don't claim any sort familiarity with that part of the planet, I intuitively expect NZ to get a lo less traffic than any of our major cities . From a quick search it looks like Auckland receives about 21 million passengers a year, and Chicago between O'Hare and Midway see about 105 million passengers a year.
That's a lot of millions.
 
For those of you who live in the EU, what are your thoughts on this proposal from Spain?

https://elpais.com/espana/2020-04-1...uropeo-de-15-billones-con-deuda-perpetua.html

Spain's proposal - which is already circulating in Brussels - does not focus on the immediate crisis,that each country is assuming with its own resources and getting into debt at reasonable prices thanks to the ECB. The Government is proposing a large fund - 1.5 trillion is practically the size of the Italian economy, and triple the amount agreed in the Eurogroup - to inject money into the most affected economies. This Recovery Fund would avoid the massive indebtedness of the countries of the south and would help to recover their economies. It would not lend money to countries, as in the bailouts of the Great Recession, but would make direct transfers limited to the duration of the crisis. The amount of these transfers - not reimbursable - is not linked to the income of the countries but to how the coronavirus affects them (in relation to criteria such as percentage of affected population, fall in GDP or increase in unemployment).

Obviously Germany, as the powerhouse economy of Europe would need to heavily underwrite this.

Annual GDP:
Capture+_2020-04-27-05-05-41.png
 
USA has almost 330 million inhabitants. The infection is estimated to affect 60% of the population in any country. Let us put 50%, 165 million.

10% will require hospital admission. Of them 50%, that is to say 5% of the total, ICU bed with respirator. In other words, some 16 million people will require income. If measures were not taken in a few months, that number would have been reached. ICU admissions are being reduced through better oxygen treatment, medication and medical care in hospitals.

Until new patients are successfully treated before widespread inflammation occurs, many of them will have extensive damage to the internal organs, not just the lungs, generating a huge number of new chronic patients.

We do not know what percentage will be chronic but the few autopsies performed indicate an incredible destruction in many organs, so the percentage of chronic compared to those who recover after admission will be high.

Everything indicates that the immunity will be of limited duration, so if they fall ill again they will almost certainly die, at least today.

The future of those 16 million Americans would be very problematic. Either they die or they will generate considerable expense that will cause millions of families to go bankrupt.

Therefore, today, the logic dictates avoiding a massive contagion until there is a better medication. Vaccines, if any, will take longer than that new treatments. Meanwhile the outlook is very black, at the health and economic level, worldwide.
 
Spain and Italy will inevitably need a bailout. That it will be conditioned and will force numerous budget cuts. Salaries and pensions will have very large drops.

The logical thing is a new government, of national unity, with the best experts and managers that can be found, whether they are Spaniard or not. The current Spanish political class must leave in its entirety. As the above will hardly happen in a short time, the best heads will continue to go out, so that the prevailing mediocrity will increase.

- End of topic -
 
For those of you who live in the EU, what are your thoughts on this proposal from Spain?
https://elpais.com/espana/2020-04-1...uropeo-de-15-billones-con-deuda-perpetua.html
Obviously Germany, as the powerhouse economy of Europe would need to heavily underwrite this.

I think something needs to be done, but I have doubts this is going to be a smooth ride.

Two things crossed my minds those last few weeks.

1) so-called essential workers are what make our societies resilient. That should be recognized as more valuable going forward.

2) giveaways are likely to lead to all kinds of abuse, I'd personally subscribe to negative yield euro level corona bonds used for free long term loans. But as I understand, euro level corona bonds aren't going to fly either...
 
For those of you who live in the EU, what are your thoughts on this proposal from Spain?

https://elpais.com/espana/2020-04-1...uropeo-de-15-billones-con-deuda-perpetua.html



Obviously Germany, as the powerhouse economy of Europe would need to heavily underwrite this.

Annual GDP:
View attachment 60655
Well the UK is (sadly IMO) leaving the EU but this may well be a major problem for the its survival anyway.
Nationalists already are getting upset about the idea rightly or wrongly. One Dutch correspondent said "if my neighbour's house is on fire I will help put it out but don't want to take over the mortgage" a point of view which will be widely shared.
Equally countries that dealt efficiently with the crisis won't want to bank roll those that did not.
I don't see it ending well since our world has been used to money based targets and will go back to that as soon as it can, probably forgetting/ignoring how badly paid those who turned out to be critical were/are and forgetting how totally unimportant celebrities have turned out to be :)
 
Well the UK is (sadly IMO) leaving the EU but this may well be a major problem for the its survival anyway.
Nationalists already are getting upset about the idea rightly or wrongly. One Dutch correspondent said "if my neighbour's house is on fire I will help put it out but don't want to take over the mortgage" a point of view which will be widely shared.
Equally countries that dealt efficiently with the crisis won't want to bank roll those that did not.
I don't see it ending well since our world has been used to money based targets and will go back to that as soon as it can, probably forgetting/ignoring how badly paid those who turned out to be critical were/are and forgetting how totally unimportant celebrities have turned out to be :)
We could not even stand the idea of signing up to joint procurement of PPE with Europe, even though it would of likely saved life's .

It was too politically toxic .

Umm.
 
Más de 114.000 personas han sido hospitalizadas en España por el coronavirus
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04...pitalizadas-en-espana-por-el-coronavirus.html

More than 114,000 people have been hospitalized in Spain for the coronavirus
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04-27/mas-de-114000-personas-han-sido-hospitalizadas-en-espana-por-el-coronavirus.html

[ It took 43 days of alarm for all communities to report the epidemic data homogeneously to the Ministry of Health. Madrid, the most affected, did not contribute the accumulated hospital income, so the total figure was unknown until now. This Monday he did it for the first time: in total 114,081 people have required hospitalization in Spain for coronavirus... ]

And other communities continue to hide data from the Ministry, such as Catalonia.

The State of Exception (30 days) should have been declared and not the State of Alarm. It was not done by putting ideology before practicality. The logical thing was, after declaring the first State of Alarm (15 days), to ask Parliament's permission for that of Exception (30 days), which would have allowed to take full control of the autonomous administration. It would also have allowed to compulsorily accommodate at hotels all those who tested positive. It is clear that many of the infections are occurring at home during confinement.
 
USA has almost 330 million inhabitants. The infection is estimated to affect 60% of the population in any country. Let us put 50%, 165 million.

10% will require hospital admission. Of them 50%, that is to say 5% of the total, ICU bed with respirator. In other words, some 16 million people will require income. If measures were not taken in a few months, that number would have been reached. ICU admissions are being reduced through better oxygen treatment, medication and medical care in hospitals.

Until new patients are successfully treated before widespread inflammation occurs, many of them will have extensive damage to the internal organs, not just the lungs, generating a huge number of new chronic patients.

We do not know what percentage will be chronic but the few autopsies performed indicate an incredible destruction in many organs, so the percentage of chronic compared to those who recover after admission will be high.

Everything indicates that the immunity will be of limited duration, so if they fall ill again they will almost certainly die, at least today.

The future of those 16 million Americans would be very problematic. Either they die or they will generate considerable expense that will cause millions of families to go bankrupt.

Therefore, today, the logic dictates avoiding a massive contagion until there is a better medication. Vaccines, if any, will take longer than that new treatments. Meanwhile the outlook is very black, at the health and economic level, worldwide.
I doubt the accuracy of everything in your post after the US population. So far there is simply not enough information to know how it could go. It could be something like you posit, but right now that is looking unlikely. At some point the economy must restart and let the chips fall where they may. You'll reach a point where there's no choice on that. Hopefully by then enough will have been learned to mitigate the worst effects.
 
I doubt the accuracy of everything in your post after the US population. So far there is simply not enough information to know how it could go. It could be something like you posit, but right now that is looking unlikely. At some point the economy must restart and let the chips fall where they may. You'll reach a point where there's no choice on that. Hopefully by then enough will have been learned to mitigate the worst effects.
I am afraid that at the moment I don't care much about what may or may not happen in the USA (or Spain) I'm only concerned about here - that is the way humans tend to be in a crisis - tribal, family first then local area - and that is me at the moment.
Some other country's leaders seem like buffoons and others wise but it is only ours which are going to effect my life for a while and they seem to have been on the buffoonish side of the median to me.
 
The result of the few autopsies carried out outside Spain indicated a great affectation to a multitude of organs, with very extensive damage. It is assumed that it was triggered by the immune system itself as an exaggerated response to the virus. Since the latter occurs when massive inflammation, it is what is sought to avoid. For this, the patient must be detected quickly and treatment must be started to avoid said inflammation.

In time, more will be known about the health of those recovering who were in very poor condition, especially those elderly patients who die within a period of time and may undergo autopsies.

When people have been admitted to the hospital they were very bad, at least in Spain, because of saturation.

It is clear that economic activity must be resumed, but because of not having acted before the exponential / explosive contagious some countries will take longer than others, as Spain. There are areas where there will be a complete lack of cleanliness in the next days because they have been days without new infections. The problem is big cities. And plans must be drawn up for fast confinement in areas where regrowth is detected.
 
Más de 114.000 personas han sido hospitalizadas en España por el coronavirus
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04...pitalizadas-en-espana-por-el-coronavirus.html

More than 114,000 people have been hospitalized in Spain for the coronavirus
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04-27/mas-de-114000-personas-han-sido-hospitalizadas-en-espana-por-el-coronavirus.html

[ It took 43 days of alarm for all communities to report the epidemic data homogeneously to the Ministry of Health. Madrid, the most affected, did not contribute the accumulated hospital income, so the total figure was unknown until now. This Monday he did it for the first time: in total 114,081 people have required hospitalization in Spain for coronavirus... ]

And other communities continue to hide data from the Ministry, such as Catalonia.

The State of Exception (30 days) should have been declared and not the State of Alarm. It was not done by putting ideology before practicality. The logical thing was, after declaring the first State of Alarm (15 days), to ask Parliament's permission for that of Exception (30 days), which would have allowed to take full control of the autonomous administration. It would also have allowed to compulsorily accommodate at hotels all those who tested positive. It is clear that many of the infections are occurring at home during confinement.

I suppose that is good news: If 5% of the population is infected (as your earlier post indicated), that's 2.3 million actual infections so far. That implies, in turn, a 5.0% hospitalization rate and 1.0% mortality-to-infection rate.

Now for the bad news:
For any one country, I suppose the age distribution would have an impact. Looking at the US without that adjustment, 330 million * 60% = 198 million cases, 9.9 million hospitalizations and 2 million deaths.

So I am hoping that 5% infection rate estimate is very low. In New York the recent study indicated 14%.
 
We need to keep strong partisan political feels to ourselves.

At some point they will provide ammunition for someone to drag the thread off course and or give me a heap of grief.

Trust me this threads already given me more grief than the rest of the forum combined.

Cheers
 
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