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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

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krabapple

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He is just saying that a decreasing mortality rate is a win. No need to be so abrasive.


Actual phrasing:
"If the mortality rate is going down, they we are winning. "

'we are winning, not 'that's a win'. [posted amidst posts imputing political motives to others]

Where cases and hospitalizations are increasing, as in Texas, I doubt epidemiologists/public health officials would agree 'we are winning' against a pandemic whose negative health and economic outcomes are not confined to *death*.
 

LeftCoastTim

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Dallas ICU running out of room:
Screen Shot 2020-06-22 at 4.05.18 PM.png
 

Racheski

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https://www.newsweek.com/houston-pr...ronavirus-after-marching-george-floyd-1511066

Read it and weep. This is from mainstream Newsweek, not Fox or whatever. It's not political, just the facts and what most expected to happen.
Unfortunately the woman they interviewed said she felt sick the day after the march, and since the incubation period is at least a couple days after exposure, it is more likely she had contracted the virus prior to the march. This assumes she was feeling sick due to COVID19 and not some other illness the day after the march, and the timeline she reported was accurate, so who knows for sure.
 

Ron Texas

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Unfortunately the woman they interviewed said she felt sick the day after the march, and since the incubation period is at least a couple days after exposure, it is more likely she had contracted the virus prior to the march. This assumes she was feeling sick due to COVID19 and not some other illness the day after the march, and the timeline she reported was accurate, so who knows for sure.
What about the 23 policemen? As an aside we have been fortunate in Houston to have experienced only minor property damage especially because Floyd is from here and was buried here. Not all of our local officials are my idols, but at least they didn't screw it up, and my fellow citizens kept their cool.
 
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krabapple

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You completely missed the point of my post. I’m not comparing my credentials to Fauci’s - he clearly has an impressive CV; I was defending myself because you made a personal attack. And questioning the mask decision and comments is not a referendum on his entire career.

You clearly have some personal bias in favor of Dr. Fauci that is clouding your judgment. If you agree with him on how the mask issue was handled that’s fine, but maybe try to present some empirical evidence to enrich this thread instead of touting his credentials, otherwise you are subject to the authority fallacy.

I looked at your posts on this thread since joining ASR in late April. Your beef with Fauci re: masks is the common one found on highly 'political' outlets e.g., National Review: namely, that Fauci disrecommended mask wearing by the public early in the Covid pandemic, for *political* reasons. Where 'political' is meant as 'nefariously dishonest'. As exhibit A they point to the fact that Fauci , while certainly not declaring masks useless, said on March 8 that there was 'no reason' for the average person to be wearing one. Also that they would provide imperfect protection, especially if misused (which is of course true). It is clear in context, that his overwhelming concern at that time of limited PPE availability and many unknowns about the virus (including its airborne characteristics), was that front liners/trained professionals closely and the highly symptomatic population they are exposed to, would form a disastrous nexus of infection, without masks to prevent it. The disaster would be decimation of the responder community (healthcare workers primarily) in places where the infrastructure was under massive stress. This in turn would lead to and overwhelmed system and more deaths from inadequate healthcare response. (Secondarily, infected responders could become major spreaders themselves in the community at large as well as within hospitals). He was strongly and consistently stressing social distancing then, and afterwards, as the key PP measure for the average person -- a measure obviously not available to front line responders and their patients.

These circumstances circa March-April have to be kept in mind when we visit your other point, which seems to be that Fauci, and the CDC* should have known before early April (perhaps as early as March 8?) that presymptomatic/asymptomatic (P/A) carriers are infective , and thus it would benefit the public by being masked. The CDS's own literature review (which you linked to, only recently published) was undertaken in early April, thus including the surge of papers produced in March. It found about a dozen (not 'dozens') of papers, typically case studies, that were, if not dispositive, at least suggestive of transmission from P/A people. But certainly there was no consensus until then about how much of a threat they constituted -- *how* infective they were, it was an evolving story; and even today the issue is not settled, particularly for truly asymptomatic individuals. Also, a study since March 8 quantified how much simply speaking could release virus, another evolving story. So by April 3 Fauci acknowledging new data , is talking about when and why masks could, in fact, be recommended for the general public. (While still stressing the primary importance of distance).

To you and 'certain' groups who choose to see this as 'political' rather than sensible given the circumstances , to the point of advocating *dismissing* his advice, I'd ask: what political constituency was he serving?


*which, unlike Fauci/NIAID, is responsible for developing guidelines, though as we have seen, these can be and have been suppressed/altered for what seem to be quite 'political' reasons by Executive branch actors
 

Don Hills

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A data point for the influenza topic from the weekend:
Recorded influenza-like illness symptoms in NZ.
14/3: Borders closed.
26/3: Lockdown begins.
28/4: Lockdown partially lifted.
14/5: Further reduction in restrictions.
9/6: Most restrictions lifted.


1592873004100.png
 

Racheski

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I looked at your posts on this thread since joining ASR in late April. Your beef with Fauci re: masks is the common one found on highly 'political' outlets e.g., National Review: namely, that Fauci disrecommended mask wearing by the public early in the Covid pandemic, for *political* reasons. Where 'political' is meant as 'nefariously dishonest'. As exhibit A they point to the fact that Fauci , while certainly not declaring masks useless, said on March 8 that there was 'no reason' for the average person to be wearing one. Also that they would provide imperfect protection, especially if misused (which is of course true). It is clear in context, that his overwhelming concern at that time of limited PPE availability and many unknowns about the virus (including its airborne characteristics), was that front liners/trained professionals closely and the highly symptomatic population they are exposed to, would form a disastrous nexus of infection, without masks to prevent it. The disaster would be decimation of the responder community (healthcare workers primarily) in places where the infrastructure was under massive stress. This in turn would lead to and overwhelmed system and more deaths from inadequate healthcare response. (Secondarily, infected responders could become major spreaders themselves in the community at large as well as within hospitals). He was strongly and consistently stressing social distancing then, and afterwards, as the key PP measure for the average person -- a measure obviously not available to front line responders and their patients.

These circumstances circa March-April have to be kept in mind when we visit your other point, which seems to be that Fauci, and the CDC* should have known before early April (perhaps as early as March 8?) that presymptomatic/asymptomatic (P/A) carriers are infective , and thus it would benefit the public by being masked. The CDS's own literature review (which you linked to, only recently published) was undertaken in early April, thus including the surge of papers produced in March. It found about a dozen (not 'dozens') of papers, typically case studies, that were, if not dispositive, at least suggestive of transmission from P/A people. But certainly there was no consensus until then about how much of a threat they constituted -- *how* infective they were, it was an evolving story; and even today the issue is not settled, particularly for truly asymptomatic individuals. Also, a study since March 8 quantified how much simply speaking could release virus, another evolving story. So by April 3 Fauci acknowledging new data , is talking about when and why masks could, in fact, be recommended for the general public. (While still stressing the primary importance of distance).

To you and 'certain' groups who choose to see this as 'political' rather than sensible given the circumstances , to the point of advocating *dismissing* his advice, I'd ask: what political constituency was he serving?


*which, unlike Fauci/NIAID, is responsible for developing guidelines, though as we have seen, these can be and have been suppressed/altered for what seem to be quite 'political' reasons by Executive branch actors
-The review had 40 citations, and I said dozens of studies AND reports , “We included original articles, brief reports, and correspondences.”
-I’m not going to answer your question out of respect for the title of the thread.
-I didn’t even know what the “National Review” is until you mentioned it (conservative online magazine apparently?). I’m a leftist democratic - I sometimes read Fox News headlines for LOLs, but I can’t stand the articles.
-The mask recommendation topic is beating a dead horse at this point, so let’s move on.
 

BsdKurt

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The US accounts for 20% of new cases globally, even though we have only 4.3% of the world’s population. Go ‘Murica!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
This is the kind of reporting I find highly suspect and would not trust without digging deeper. I’m not criticizing your post, but rather when I read an article like this I question if the authors are selectively grabbing numbers and quotes to make a case that aligns with their political beliefs. For this one I didn’t dig deeper so I don't know.

To be honest TL;DR it all, but I scanned it and it goes on on with lots of selective quotes and statistics. While personally I’m slightly left of center, I still question reporting like this and wonder if I’m reading a piece where the authors bias is driving the story or if the facts do.
 

Racheski

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This is the kind of reporting I find highly suspect and would not trust without digging deeper. I’m not criticizing your post, but rather when I read an article like this I question if the authors are selectively grabbing numbers and quotes to make a case that aligns with their political beliefs. For this one I didn’t dig deeper so I don't know.

To be honest TL;DR it all, but I scanned it and it goes on on with lots of selective quotes and statistics. While personally I’m slightly left of center, I still question reporting like this and wonder if I’m reading a piece where the authors bias is driving the story or if the facts do.
I didn’t realize that I linked to the N.Y. Times COVID news feed which may or may not have had the original article appear when you used the link. I’m really just reacting to the stat - I cross referenced with the JHU Coronavirus Resource Center and the numbers align.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
 

Thomas savage

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