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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

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Alice of Old Vincennes said:
Draconian measures will drag out infection until herd immunity occurs. Summer will be safe but will roar back this fall.
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Herd immunity to Covid 19 has not been established as a given. Working toward eradication is a safer path at present whilst vaccines and other medical treatments are investigated.
 
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No we need more certainty. Every living person must take the test for having COVID19 all in one day, and then not get close to anyone until the results are in. Quarantine all those with it. Then it will be eradicated. Will have to mutate into existing all over again on its own. This whole thing could be over in 3 weeks.
1588042302654.png









Of course I'm not serious.
 
Wombat said:
Herd immunity to Covid 19 has not been established as a given. Working toward eradication is a safer path at present whilst vaccines and other medical treatments are investigated.
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Yeah. Total eradication. This is not a sci-fi movie. Why don't we close down the economy until the fountain of youth vaccine is invented. If you are scared, stay home while the rest of us get on with our lives.
 
Don't ignore the denominator statistics relentlessly percolating. I can hardly wait until anti-body tests become readily available. Morbidity rate will drop like a rock. This scam would make Bernie Madoff blush.
 
Alice of Old Vincennes said:
Don't ignore the denominator statistics relentlessly percolating. I can hardly wait until anti-body tests become readily available. Morbidity rate will drop like a rock. This scam would make Bernie Madoff blush.
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Not sure that will be the result. There is some reason to think that maybe only about 15% of the population get it or near that number. Which puts all these models on a whole different level. Until the data is in however, it leaves us all in the dark.
 
Blumlein 88 said:
Not sure that will be the result. There is some reason to think that maybe only about 15% of the population get it or near that number. Which puts all these models on a whole different level. Until the data is in however, it leaves us all in the dark.
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It will be much higher. In my town, I am convinced we caught the first wave in December. I can hardly wait for anti-body. My entire family will test positive.
 
Alice of Old Vincennes said:
Self employed of all party persuasions will run to the polls white hot and vote against govenors who kneecapped them.
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Let's keep to the thread title and leave out politics, please?
 
Don’t judge Sweden’s light touch on Covid-19 yet, says minister

” Many Swedes support and are complying with the policy, which contrasts with the strict mandatory lockdowns imposed in many EU countries and has been heavily criticised by some scientists. The country’s death toll per million, while far lower than Italy’s and Spain’s, is also many times higher than those of its Nordic neighbours.

Linde told the Guardian in an interview that Sweden’s aims were to “save lives, stop the virus from spreading, ensure the healthcare system can cope and mitigate the consequences for business and jobs”.
It must also be sustainable for the long term, she said: “This is a marathon, not a sprint.” ”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ens-light-touch-on-covid-19-yet-says-minister
 
Epidemic is like weather, you can forecast but you never predict. There will never be enough data. In that sense probably can never prove GW either. It's just a theory, and a theory is not a law, it is always refutable
 
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Wombat said:
See #2 here:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/just-a-theory-7-misused-science-words/

The rest of the article is also informative for those unfamiliar with science.
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I know what they mean, what I'm trying to say is what makes a theory a theory, is that they must be logically refutable, but it hasn't been. That's why I brought in the law. The theory and conclusions can be limited by knowledge at the time, or even by time itself. So yes in long run, it's just a theory.

Meaning if we're to put things into that perspective / time span, nothing is really conclusive and definite, ie we can do nothing / nothing we can do, except waiting for the most definite things that happens to everyone in the end, just for more data, to prove and confirm the hypothesis
 
andymok said:
I know what they mean, what I'm trying to say is what makes a theory a theory, is that they must be logically refutable, but it hasn't been. That's why I brought in the law. The theory and conclusions can be limited by knowledge at the time, or even by time itself. So yes in long run, it's just a theory.

Meaning if we're to put things into that perspective / time span, nothing is really conclusive and definite, ie we can do nothing / nothing we can do, except waiting for the most definite things that happens to everyone in the end, just for more data, to prove and confirm the hypothesis
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In more detail - scientific theory and scientific law:

https://www.livescience.com/21457-what-is-a-law-in-science-definition-of-scientific-law.html

Perfection is not always required for successful practical application of science. If we waited to achieve ultimate knowledge nothing would be done.
 
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Alice of Old Vincennes said:
Yeah. Total eradication. This is not a sci-fi movie... If you are scared, stay home....
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I could make a tedious response to correct some of the misconceptions in your posts but what's the point?
No doubt you would continue to believe the misconceptions are mine, and I already posted a serious analysis.
So instead I propose a more fun option! "put your money where your mouth is" bet!
Your first post was in response to eradication in New Zealand.
What odds will you offer on this and for how much?
If it's "sci-fi" then it must be very implausible, will you take a bet at 1000-1 say or 100-1?
What amount are you prepared to bet at 10-1?
The bet will be that New Zealand achieves eradication by the end of June.
No new cases within NZ for 2 weeks.
Cases from people infected overseas that are detected at the border don't count unless they spread the disease in NZ.
(Can't blame NZ for infections by other countries)
I will take side bets from others too!
Amir or Thomas to act as referees, unless it breaks a law in the US or UK.
In which case I expect that someone else can be found.

Maybe I can do this and make money from audiophile believers too.
Why try to educate people when you can exploit them?
Oh wait, that's what the tweek cable salesmen do!
Somehow a bet feels more honest.

Best wishes
David
 
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PierreV said:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20024901v2.full.pdf

Batista was one of the first on the ball of data modeling through logistic regression. You should be aware that if those charts look "nice" it is because they are constantly updated and the prediction is readjusted. It's a bit different if you stick to the data that was available 15 days ago and check what it predicted for today.

The code is available here btw
https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74411-fitvirus

So, those type of predictions, as presented, always look very convincing. Read the fine print and caveats in Batista's paper.

Likewise, the IHME model (the one that predicted "only" 61000 deaths for the US at one point and was very "hot" a few weeks ago, much less so today, looked very convincing visually. The issues with that model are different (at least as you can guess from the outside). Some conversation I had around a month ago, slightly edited for privacy, italics are my words...

29 MAR 2020, 23:59

something that doesn't "feel" right about the IHME model is that the predicted deaths peaks (and the whole death line) don't seem to trail peak infection rates by much, if at all.

Exactly
Look at some of the states
Deaths go to zero in June
I think Birx hates models and picked the low one
Look how the deaths just stop
There is no tail in some of the states
The overall is going since some states start very late

Reverts to baseline. Approved for one month only. XXXXXXXX will license it to you for a small fee

But I don’t get how individual stares have zero deaths past May
Yes homeostatic

I knew the word!
raw data is a bit all over the place right now, was trying (roughly) to normalize confirmed and death, then find best correlated shifts on normalized curve yesterday, but data on smaller euro countries isn't reliable (lulls then sudden bulk reporting), Germany is a clear outlier, etc...

So, bottom line, those observational predictive models with nice visualizations but very little connexion with the actual underlying process will always appear to be convincing. Batista is very well aware of that and notes the limitations in his paper, but yeah, (almost) no one reads the paper these days...
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We have to look a little further. The graphs indicate, roughly, where in the pandemic each country is.

The graph of Singapore is interesting. It is necessary to avoid a general outbreak, for which reason it is necessary to be unconfined by areas within each state, region, province or health zones to avoid putting the entire country back into quarantine. And those areas have to be guarded so that people do not cross their limits.

You have to follow the Chinese model if you did not act well at first -> disconcert by areas and not by economic sectors as Italy and others plan to do.
 
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