[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

[maty]

It is not official, but it seems that in large Spanish companies where workers have been tested, 5% of those who tested positive did not have any symptoms. The reliability of the tests is very important. I do not know if they are PCR or fast (much less reliable).

Suppose it is really only 1%. Given the high contagiousness of the virus, closed rooms and air conditioning may be enough for a big outbreak to occur quickly, I think. Except that everyone wears masks and disinfects their hands before entering and more times during the working day, as they do. Keeping at least two meters away -> new "normal".

 

[Dave Zan]

I miss whole conversations while we sleep in this hemisphere.

Why we've been moderately successful in New Zealand:...

You are too modest, New Zealand has been extraordinarily successful.

Unfortunately a pretty unique situation so maybe not one that we can look to as an example to follow - very very few places can control and monitor entry as well as NZ

I don't think NZ was "lucky" because of unique factors.
The UK is also a small island which could have controlled it's borders, now one of the worst hit countries.
Ditto Ireland.
Whereas Hong Kong shares NZ's extraordinary success despite extremely dense population and not an island- in fact the riskiest position possible, part of China.
Australia has done well despite most of the population in cities with similar population density to the USA.
(The whole Sydney conurbation is very similar to San Francisco not just in density but urban layout, transport systems and so on.
My home of Canberra is likewise remarkably similar to Sacramento, to mention just 4 places I know personally)
Australia also has (had) a lot of Chinese tourists and students.
So there must be some other factors, I suspect leadership is important.
I know the political leadership in NZ has been exemplary.
Australia's took a little while to realise the seriousness of the problem but since then has been effective, bipartisan and consistent with the science.

I doubt the accuracy...

Data is always inaccurate, you have repeatedly emphasised that we don't know the true number of cases- but we never do for any disease.
We always have to use the reported number of cases and try to make reasonable assumptions.
The numbers for Australia are probably the best statistical reliability in the world at the moment.
(This is not just some Aussie parochial boast but the independent assessment of overseas experts)
We probably have very few unreported cases, we now do around 1000 tests per confirmed case.
(And if there were many undetected carriers then there would be cases with no known source, this is now practically eliminated in Australia)
The case fatality rate in Australia, as I write, is 83 deaths in 6720 confirmed cases = ~1.25%
That is with one of the best health systems in the world and never overwhelmed.
New Zealand's rate is similar.
So that's a number that's pretty much best case.
Any number much less is probably a consequence of unreported deaths, which the data shows are common, or false positives in the antibody test.
The ~10% in Spain and Italy no doubt reflect an overwhelmed health system as well as unreported cases.

...let the chips fall where they may...

I have to say I find this attitude hard to comprehend.
The numbers above imply the likelihood of enormous loss of life.
The world was horrified when 3,000 people were killed in 9/11 but you are OK to throw the dice on maybe 100,000 to 1,000,000s of your fellow citizens?
I too worry about the economy but it's hard to believe that fatalities on a mass scale will help.

Just 9 new cases for Australia today.
I am scared that we could blow it, so close to extermination, but try to remain positive.

Best wishes
David

Added small clarifications in Times New Roman.

 

[maty]

By the way, today was the first day, in Spain, that children under the age of fourteen (not included) could go for an hour's walk accompanied by an adult. After 43 days at home.

https://www.lainformacion.com/asunt...-espana-polemica-redes-confinamiento/6562359/

Given what has been seen in some big many Spanish cities and towns, a spike in infections is expected within two weeks . What has been said, mediocre societies elect also mediocre representatives.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1254364098005028864

645 denuncias en Barcelona por incumplir el confinamiento con los niños
[Spanish] https://www.elperiodico.com/es/soci...umplir-el-confinamiento-con-los-ninos-7941888

645 complaints in Barcelona for breach of confinement with children
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200427/645-denuncias-en-barcelona-por-incumplir-el-confinamiento-con-los-ninos-7941888

[ The Barcelona Urban Guard and the Mossos d'Esquadra filed 645 complaints to people in Barcelona and 1,900 across Catalonia for breaching confinement on Sunday, the first day that children were allowed to leave the street and the framework of the alarm status by the coronavirus.

The first deputy mayor of Barcelona, Jaume Collboni, has detailed that the allegations were made "especially in the afternoon" and that 1,644 notices were made to people alone in the city... ]


They reacted in the afternoon after the complaints on social networks because in the morning the police did nothing. The logical thing was to have started on a Monday and not a Sunday. I am afraid the Spanish government will make the same mistake next week, when older people will be allowed to go outside and the runners. The logical thing is to start on Monday and set shifts to avoid everyone being on the street at the same hours, children included.

 

[maty]

The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemicin New York City
[PDF] http://web.mit.edu/jeffrey/harris/HarrisJE_WP2_COVID19_NYC_24-Apr-2020.pdf

[ Abstract. New York City’s multipronged subway system was a major disseminator –if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan –down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Subway lines with the largest drop in ridership during the second and thirdweeks of March had the lowest subsequent rates of infection in the zip codes traversed by their routes. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed uponzip code-level maps ofreported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan... ]

 

[maty]

Exclusive: National alert as ‘coronavirus-related condition may be emerging in children’
https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/ex...n-may-be-emerging-in-children/7027496.article

[ An alert to GPs and seen by HSJ says that in the “last three weeks, there has been an apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multisystem inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also in other regions of the UK”.

It adds: “There is a growing concern that a [covid-19] related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK, or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases.”

Little is known so far about the issue, nor how widespread it has been, but the absolute number of children affected is thought to be very small, according to paediatrics sources. The syndrome has the characteristics of serious covid-19, but there have otherwise been relatively few cases of serious effects or deaths from coronavirus in children. Some of the children have tested positive for covid-19, and some appear to have had the virus in the past, but some have not... ]

 

[andymok]

Numbers are delayed and post anyways
Here we treat numbers as results of our efforts, for us to examine ourselves, rather than as indicators revealing the scene, directing us what and how much we should do.

Be always ahead of numbers.


Moms in Hong Kong rally to donate vital breastmilk during Covid-19
by AFP
27TH APRIL 2020

https://hongkongfp.com/2020/04/27/m...ital-breastmilk-in-hong-kong-during-covid-19/

Whisked out of her Hong Kong home by medics in protective gear, Catherine Kosasih didn’t know if or when she would see her children — aged just four months and 21 months — again.

Once in hospital, her COVID-19 diagnosis was confirmed, she was kept in isolation and her husband and children quarantined. Worse still, they discovered that because her youngest was allergic to formula, there was no way to feed her.

“I left the house suddenly and I didn’t know how long I would be in the hospital. I had so many worries but one of the biggest ones was for the baby, who is breastfed, especially after she had such a bad reaction to formula that my husband was close to calling an ambulance,” explains the 33-year-old.

In this picture taken on April 1, 2020, French mother Aude Senelar pours freshly expressed milk into a storage bag in Hong Kong after an emergency callout by the founder of social media support group Hong Kong Breastfeeding for breast milk donations for the youngest daughter of a then-hospitalised COVID-19 coronavirus patient. Photo: Anthony Wallace/A


https://hongkongfp.com/2020/04/27/m...ital-breastmilk-in-hong-kong-during-covid-19/

 

[Deleted member 65]

Recent analysis/statistics from Sweden on all deaths in covid-19:

90% was over 70 yo.
50% was over 85 yo.
1% was under 50 yo.
79% had high blood pressure.
48% had heart, cardiovascular problems.
29% had diabetes.

 

[Frank Dernie]

I too worry about the economy but it's hard to believe that fatalities on a mass scale will help.

Spot on.
Sensible post altogether :thumbsup:

 

[maty]

Aerodynamic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in two Wuhan hospitals
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2271-3

[ Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has spread rapidly on a global scale. While the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via human respiratory droplets and direct contact is clear, the potential for aerosol transmission is poorly understood1–3. This study investigated the aerodynamic nature of SARS-CoV-2 by measuring viral RNA in aerosols in different areas of two Wuhan hospitals during the COVID-19 outbreak in February and March 2020.

The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in aerosols detected in isolation wards and ventilated patient rooms was very low, but it was elevated in the patients’ sanitary areas. Levels of airborne SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the majority of public areas was undetectable except in two areas prone to crowding, possibly due to infected carriers in the crowd. We found that some medical staff areas initially had high concentrations of viral RNA with aerosol size distributions showing peaks in submicrometre and/or supermicrometre regions, but these levels were reduced to undetectable levels after implementation of rigorous sanitization procedures.

Although we have not established the infectivity of the virus detected in these hospital areas, we propose that SARS-CoV-2 may have the potential to be transmitted via aerosols. Our results indicate that room ventilation, open space, sanitization of protective apparel, and proper use and disinfection of sanitary areas can effectively limit the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in aerosols. Future work should explore the infectivity of aerosolized virus. ]

 

[maty]

Informe situación mundial COVID-19 (27A). España supera los 500 fallecidos por millón de habitantes
[Spanish] https://electomania.es/informe-situacion-mundial-covid-19-27a/

CoVID-19 World Situation Report (27A). Spain exceeds 500 deaths per million inhabitants
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://electomania.es/informe-situacion-mundial-covid-19-27a/

COVID-19. Last week deaths per million inhabitants

 

[maty]

When Will COVID-19 End
Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (updated on April 27)
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/

 

[Xulonn]

Regarding the difficulty of finding science-based information relating to "end the shutdown and return to normal" plans, information and misinformation...

On April 22, a video by two doctors who own a for-profit urgent care business in very conservative Bakersfield, California was posted on YouTube, and it now has about 1.5 million views. The doctors portray themselves as experts on the subject. The video [LINK] has gone viral in the conservative "you cannot deny us our freedom" community. Although they include the statement: "Do we need to test them and get them back to work? Absolutely.", the two statements preceding that one which deny the necessity of sheltering in place and shutting down businesses override the first statement's usefulness.

The two frontline physicians, Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi, are the owners of Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield, California. The doctors are presenting medical advice about the coronavirus that is far different than what health officials have been saying over the past weeks.

Last week, the doctors gave a news conference to deliver their COVID-19 findings.

"Do we need to still shelter in place? Our answer is emphatically no," Erickson said. "Do we need businesses to be shut down? Emphatically no. Do we need to test them and get them back to work? Absolutely."

Accelerated Urgent Care has tested 5,213 patients within the county, which makes up half of all testing done in Kern County. "Now that we have the facts, it's time to get back to work," Erickson said.

Erickson noted that the coronavirus and seasonal flu are "similar in their prevalence and death rates."

Even my liberal neighbors passed this video on to our little community. Aside from a scathing rebuttal on DailyKOS, a very leftist-oriented blog, I could not find anything via a Google search to counter it in a non-political science-oriented style.

I know that Covid-19, unlike the flu, can cause devastating and lingering problems to our human bodies and physiologies, is more contagious, and has the potential to overwhelm health-care systems.

Does anyone reading this have a link to a rational, science-based webpage or article from a non-political website where the pros and cons of shutdown/lockdown levels and elimination or reduction of social distancing are discussed? I've spent a lot of time searching and could not find a good source of information.

OTOH, there are a number of restriction reductions and removals occurring around the USA and the world this week, so in 2-3 weeks we will have some real-world answers to the debate. Quite frankly, I fear that although the world may be able to start getting back to work soon, some limitations and restrictions to personal proximity and interactions may be necessary for far longer then many expect.

 

[Xulonn]

When Will COVID-19 End

There are still unanswered questions about immunity, reinfection and mutation rates - and how ending restrictions too quickly might cause secondary peaks. There's definitely a lot of uncertainty around this pandemic.

And yes, I do worry about the psychological, societal and economic effects of prolonged isolation and restrictions. Unless Covid-19 magically disappears, there are no really good outcomes regarding human civilization over the next couple of years.

Major negative global events often have lingering negative effects that last a decade or more.

 

[BDWoody]

Major negative global events often have lingering negative effects that last a decade or more.

And I hope we are all still here thrashing it out, with our varied perspectives, in 2030. I look forward to hear what you, @Frank Dernie and @RayDunzl and all of our wisdom bank will have to say about it!

 

[PierreV]

When Will COVID-19 End
Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (updated on April 27)
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/

View attachment 60762

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20024901v2.full.pdf

Batista was one of the first on the ball of data modeling through logistic regression. You should be aware that if those charts look "nice" it is because they are constantly updated and the prediction is readjusted. It's a bit different if you stick to the data that was available 15 days ago and check what it predicted for today.

The code is available here btw
https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74411-fitvirus

So, those type of predictions, as presented, always look very convincing. Read the fine print and caveats in Batista's paper.

Likewise, the IHME model (the one that predicted "only" 61000 deaths for the US at one point and was very "hot" a few weeks ago, much less so today, looked very convincing visually. The issues with that model are different (at least as you can guess from the outside). Some conversation I had around a month ago, slightly edited for privacy, italics are my words...

29 MAR 2020, 23:59

something that doesn't "feel" right about the IHME model is that the predicted deaths peaks (and the whole death line) don't seem to trail peak infection rates by much, if at all.

Exactly
Look at some of the states
Deaths go to zero in June
I think Birx hates models and picked the low one
Look how the deaths just stop
There is no tail in some of the states
The overall is going since some states start very late

Reverts to baseline. Approved for one month only. XXXXXXXX will license it to you for a small fee

But I don’t get how individual stares have zero deaths past May
Yes homeostatic

I knew the word!
raw data is a bit all over the place right now, was trying (roughly) to normalize confirmed and death, then find best correlated shifts on normalized curve yesterday, but data on smaller euro countries isn't reliable (lulls then sudden bulk reporting), Germany is a clear outlier, etc...

So, bottom line, those observational predictive models with nice visualizations but very little connexion with the actual underlying process will always appear to be convincing. Batista is very well aware of that and notes the limitations in his paper, but yeah, (almost) no one reads the paper these days...

 

[Wes]

The US CDC has a rational, science-based webpage

 

[Putter]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20024901v2.full.pdf

Batista was one of the first on the ball of data modeling through logistic regression. You should be aware that if those charts look "nice" it is because they are constantly updated and the prediction is readjusted. It's a bit different if you stick to the data that was available 15 days ago and check what it predicted for today.

The code is available here btw
https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74411-fitvirus

So, those type of predictions, as presented, always look very convincing. Read the fine print and caveats in Batista's paper.

Likewise, the IHME model (the one that predicted "only" 61000 deaths for the US at one point and was very "hot" a few weeks ago, much less so today, looked very convincing visually. The issues with that model are different (at least as you can guess from the outside). Some conversation I had around a month ago, slightly edited for privacy, italics are my words...

29 MAR 2020, 23:59

something that doesn't "feel" right about the IHME model is that the predicted deaths peaks (and the whole death line) don't seem to trail peak infection rates by much, if at all.

Exactly
Look at some of the states
Deaths go to zero in June
I think Birx hates models and picked the low one
Look how the deaths just stop
There is no tail in some of the states
The overall is going since some states start very late

Reverts to baseline. Approved for one month only. XXXXXXXX will license it to you for a small fee

But I don’t get how individual stares have zero deaths past May
Yes homeostatic

I knew the word!
raw data is a bit all over the place right now, was trying (roughly) to normalize confirmed and death, then find best correlated shifts on normalized curve yesterday, but data on smaller euro countries isn't reliable (lulls then sudden bulk reporting), Germany is a clear outlier, etc...

So, bottom line, those observational predictive models with nice visualizations but very little connexion with the actual underlying process will always appear to be convincing. Batista is very well aware of that and notes the limitations in his paper, but yeah, (almost) no one reads the paper these days...

Thank you for the analysis. It seems unrealistic to me, that given even in places like NYC around 75% are still uninfected, that cases will drop to zero in June and if the CoVid committee picked a model that give an unrealistically low numbers whether because they hate models or (more likely IMO) to please their boss doesn't help us deal with the epidemic and will undermine trust in expert authorities

 

[MarcT]

Social distancing in air travel may be a big issue as people start wanting to fly again. I don't think airlines can survive with 50% loads. I suspect the airlines will just cut the number of flights so much that they will be flying full loads, which means no social distancing. I've also read that they are combining canceled flights with current flights, which causes them to be filled up. This lady is canceling her return flight and driving back home.

https://www.wbtv.com/2020/04/26/pas...ssible-aboard-full-flight-new-york-charlotte/

 

[Alice of Old Vincennes]

Why we've been moderately successful in New Zealand:
- Early closing of the borders to other than returning citizens.
- Mandatory isolation of all arrivals for 14 days (originally self isolation at home, later in government provided hotels).
- Test all arrivals and mandatory quarantine of confirmed and probable cases until free of virus.
- Strict lockdown, stay at home. Keep to your "bubble".
- All businesses requiring "onsite" workers (except essential services) closed.

We've been at this level for a little over a month and are about to relax things a little, but only slightly.
We've massively ramped up our testing capability (over 2% of the population tested so far) and our contract tracing system. The plan is to aggressively trace cases as they occur and identify the source. If there's any sign of community transmission taking off, reintroduce strict lockdown.

Here's a link to a site that publishes comprehensive figures daily:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/03/27/1101216/covid-19-in-nz-the-numbers
(Link says March, but is updated daily)

Link to a local forum where daily results are presented and discussed:
https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=268639

Draconian measures will drag out infection until herd immunity occurs. Summer will be safe but will roar back this fall.

 

[Wombat]

A new representation of the Covid 19 mortality progression:

https://theconversation.com/three-c...-the-coronavirus-death-rate-is-heading-137103