maty
Major Contributor
So I have put the data table to verify within about 10-14 days.
Is there a map with the data by county or city in California?
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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]
- Thread starter andymok
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So I have put the data table to verify within about 10-14 days.
Is there a map with the data by county or city in California?
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UV will not reach into nooks, crannies, or undersides of objects.
NZ is in some ways similar to the US PNW in terms of rural areas with some cities, and compliance of the popn. with govt. advice and orders. Maybe related to educational level...
calling results garbage or meaningless simply because there may be confounding factors (which may or may not affect results) is premature and unhelpful
NZ is in some ways similar to the US PNW in terms of rural areas with some cities, and compliance of the popn. with govt. advice and orders. Maybe related to educational level...
calling results garbage or meaningless simply because there may be confounding factors (which may or may not affect results) is premature and unhelpful
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Since so many (the vast majority if you believe the news and charts) who get the virus have minimal symptoms and recover with little fuss, the total case count is likely to remain unknown unless you test the entire population (unlikely). Thus estimates of death and recovery rates based upon tested cases are meaningless; the tested cases are usually the more severe cases. That is changing as testing is expanded, but I suspect the total case count will always be significantly undercounted, leading to death rates being significantly overstated.
Unfortunately " we just don't know " dose not fill the information vacuum.
maty
Major Contributor
Thank you very much!
maty
Major Contributor
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04...onavirus-en-espana-y-el-mundo-en-directo.html
[ Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte explains that Italy will implement an escalating reopening plan:
[ Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte explains that Italy will implement an escalating reopening plan:
- May 4 will begin construction and manufacturing activity. Also the locals with takeaways
- May 18 museums, exhibitions and libraries open
- June 1 bars, hairdressers, barbers, massage centers and other restaurants will reopen ]
Oh, look...the actual temperatures along the beach today:
Oceanside -- current temp of 76/forecast high of 75.
Laguna Beach -- 70/71
Newport Beach -- 69/72
Huntington Beach -- 71/73
Long Beach -- 73/74
San Clemente -- 75/79
Solana Beach -- 71/72
Ocean Beach -- 73/74
So, not so hot at the beach, as I suspected:
"But I doubt it's that hot right now on the beaches in Southern California."
You can't go by the overall weather forecast with regard to the temps at the beach.
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Dimitri
Senior Member
A captive population makes for an interesting subset. I'd like to see (eventually) the rates of asymptomatic infections by age...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i...avirus-96percent-without-symptoms/ar-BB13c1sD
maty
Major Contributor
Miles de italianos piden justicia por la muerte de sus familiares y se abre una investigación por «epidemia culposa»
[Spanish] https://www.abc.es/internacional/ab...al-epidemia-culposa-202004251800_noticia.html
Thousands of Italians ask for justice for the death of their relatives and an investigation is opened for "faulty epidemic"
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-miles-italianos-piden-justicia-muerte-familiares-abre-investigacion-judicial-epidemia-culposa-202004251800_noticia.html
[ "We want justice". This is the cry that thousands of Italians express today with infinite rage at the coronavirus tragedy. The pandemic spread curve falls , but the anger of the relatives of the dead grows. Official figures indicate that there are more than 26,000 deaths, but another 10,000 should be added, according to an interdisciplinary study of scientists released this week. Family members want to know the truth: Why there have been so many mistakes in managing the Covid-19 and which ones could have been avoided... ]
[ The machine has already been started by the Bergamo prosecutor's office (Lombardy). Magistrate María Cristina Rota has opened an investigation for "faulty epidemic", that is, for considering that acts or omissions may have been made due to recklessness or negligence. Other prosecutors are investigating what could happen in some nursing homes where there were deaths from coronavirus, in which there were errors and complaints from family members... ]
[ Judicial investigation
The action of the Bergamo prosecution comes after the group “We will denounce” (“Noi denounceremo”) was created on Facebook, which already has almost 50,000 people. Dramatic testimonies are collected from family members who lost their loved ones in silence and today they call out for justice. They just want there to be light on eventual responsibilities. There is rage, but they do not seek revenge or financial compensation. The group created it, along with his son Stefano, Luca Fusco from Bergamo, 60 years old, after his father and an aunt died of coronavirus... ]
[Spanish] https://www.abc.es/internacional/ab...al-epidemia-culposa-202004251800_noticia.html
Thousands of Italians ask for justice for the death of their relatives and an investigation is opened for "faulty epidemic"
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-miles-italianos-piden-justicia-muerte-familiares-abre-investigacion-judicial-epidemia-culposa-202004251800_noticia.html
[ "We want justice". This is the cry that thousands of Italians express today with infinite rage at the coronavirus tragedy. The pandemic spread curve falls , but the anger of the relatives of the dead grows. Official figures indicate that there are more than 26,000 deaths, but another 10,000 should be added, according to an interdisciplinary study of scientists released this week. Family members want to know the truth: Why there have been so many mistakes in managing the Covid-19 and which ones could have been avoided... ]
[ The machine has already been started by the Bergamo prosecutor's office (Lombardy). Magistrate María Cristina Rota has opened an investigation for "faulty epidemic", that is, for considering that acts or omissions may have been made due to recklessness or negligence. Other prosecutors are investigating what could happen in some nursing homes where there were deaths from coronavirus, in which there were errors and complaints from family members... ]
[ Judicial investigation
The action of the Bergamo prosecution comes after the group “We will denounce” (“Noi denounceremo”) was created on Facebook, which already has almost 50,000 people. Dramatic testimonies are collected from family members who lost their loved ones in silence and today they call out for justice. They just want there to be light on eventual responsibilities. There is rage, but they do not seek revenge or financial compensation. The group created it, along with his son Stefano, Luca Fusco from Bergamo, 60 years old, after his father and an aunt died of coronavirus... ]
Dimitri
Senior Member
Since the beggining of the shutdown all I wanted to know about the deaths was the age and if there were underlying conditions.
Ideally what these underlying conditions were.
But I'm not holding my breath.
maty
Major Contributor
NEW: a lot of data on reported Covid deaths is highly suspect, so we’ve been looking into excess mortality — how many more people than usual have been dying around the world in recent weeks?
[ So far we’ve analysed data from 14 countries, finding 122,000 more deaths in recent weeks than the usual average for those same places and same weeks. This is an increase of 52%. Crucially, that’s also 45,000 more deaths than accounted for in reported Covid deaths... ]
Update
Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported
https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
[ The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.
Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.
If the same level of underreporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.
To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019.
The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.
In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease... ]
[ Experts have warned of serious under-reporting of Covid-19 cases in residential facilities for the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to the virus. “Very few countries appear to be testing people in care homes, staff and residents, systematically,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, Research Fellow at the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre of the London School of Economics.
Even the much higher numbers of deaths in the pandemic suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as lockdowns mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational injuries possibly went down,” said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague. ]
[ So far we’ve analysed data from 14 countries, finding 122,000 more deaths in recent weeks than the usual average for those same places and same weeks. This is an increase of 52%. Crucially, that’s also 45,000 more deaths than accounted for in reported Covid deaths... ]
Update
Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported
https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
[ The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.
Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.
If the same level of underreporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.
To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019.
The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.
In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease... ]
[ Experts have warned of serious under-reporting of Covid-19 cases in residential facilities for the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to the virus. “Very few countries appear to be testing people in care homes, staff and residents, systematically,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, Research Fellow at the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre of the London School of Economics.
Even the much higher numbers of deaths in the pandemic suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as lockdowns mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational injuries possibly went down,” said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague. ]
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Overview
- According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.4% and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO.
If the actual infection rate among the entire population is similar to the early sample infection rate they found of 13.9%, it would change the death rate of the state, Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said.
2. A study in Nature Medicine comes to a similar conclusion even for the Chinese city of Wuhan. The initially significantly higher values for Wuhan were obtained because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not recorded.
Yes the death rate is not as high as originally reported. However I would like to see them show the actual nunbers.
The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious previous illnesses. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality. Up to 60% of all Covid19-related deaths have occurred in particularly vulnerable nursing homes.
Let's see if I understand this. If you're not in the best of the health (diabetic, kidney issues, heart disease, etc.), you're less likely to survive. Well duhh! The fact that it corresponds to normal mortality is especially sneaky because it seems to indicate that there's no difference in survival when what it really means is that the less healthy are more likely to die from the virus.
Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 have proven to be false upon closer inspection. Many of these people either did not die from Covid19 or they in fact had serious preconditions (such as undiagnosed leukaemia).
A single person from Spain, a 21 yr old soccer coach, who died from Corona had leukemia. Remember that leukemia is one of the more curable cancers so there's the possibility it would have been detected and treated if not for the virus. The other reference is to a Connecticut infant who died and tested positive for the Corona virus. While the governor said the death was due to Corona virus, the coroner had not determined cause of death at that point. I haven't found a followup and a quick search showed that there may have been other infant deaths. In any case, using isolated examples to prove a general statement is misleading.
Normal overall mortality in the US is about 8000 people per day, in Germany about 2600 people and in Italy about 1800 people per day. Influenza mortality in the US is up to 80,000, in Germany and Italy up to 25,000, and in Switzerland up to 1500 people per winter.
The first statement is meaningless. Yes people die! It's only useful as to whether there are excess deaths from the virus which it doesn't address.
A piece of data I found.
From a NY Times Article on excess mortality
Switzerland Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 21% 1,000−712=300
Spain Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 66% 19,700−12,401=7,300
NYC Mar. 11 - Apr. 22 300% 19,200−15,411=3,800
The 80,000 got revised down to 61,000 (do your research!) and the average for 2010-2019 is around 37,000. It also avoids an important point. There is a vaccine for flu.
CDC Data Vaccination coverage varied by state, ranging from 46.0%–81.1% among children and from 33.9%–56.3% among adults, and of the ten states with the lowest coverage for children eight were also among the ten states with the lowest coverage for adults. Sep 26, 2019
Death rates would likely be lower if everyone got vaccinated. Also flu deaths are for an entire year, Corona is for a few months.
I could go on and on, but it does get tedious. They make a lot of general statements that are either vaguely true or over-generalizations or that people who die already had other conditions or are minority opinions.
The general impression I get is their name is unintentionally correct, Swiss Propaganda Research. They (or at least this article ) try to find the best facts and generalizations to mislead their readers, i.e. propaganda.
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https://time.com/5825860/coronavirus-robot/
More UV-C robots
More UV-C robots
Sure, we don't know it with certainty. But we know a lot. Especially comparing case rates by states where there is far more in common than, say, comparing the US with China. All measurements are wrong - at some level. If scientists said they could only go by what they measured precisely there would be no science at all. So you look for confirming data and conflicting data. Any you try to explain what you see. Then you try to get better over time. You don't just throw up your hands and say "I dunno".
In this case, we truly don't know it at all. It isn't like, "Oh, we may be off by 3 or 4%." We have absolutely no idea because there's a known systematic bias and almost no actual randomized test data. Get THAT data and there's something to talk about.
Referring to "detections" as "cases" is absolutely wrong and yet it keeps being repeated again and again.
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