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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

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Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections, experts say

”South Korea’s infectious disease experts said Thursday that dead virus fragments were the likely cause of over 260 people here testing positive again for the novel coronavirus days and even weeks after marking full recoveries.

Oh Myoung-don, who leads the central clinical committee for emerging disease control, said the committee members found little reason to believe that those cases could be COVID-19 reinfections or reactivations, which would have made global efforts to contain the virus much more daunting.

“The tests detected the ribonucleic acid of the dead virus,” said Oh, a Seoul National University hospital doctor, at a press conference Thursday held at the National Medical Center.”

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200429000724
 
No , I was possibly but it got given to alower bid ... Fair enough however the projects ate up all the plasterboard in the supply chain and in doing so killed a bunch of projects that might of earned folks money .
Ain't it great that our leaders have perfect knowledge of the supply chain and can determine with perfect accuracy what is "essential" and what is not.
 
BTW, that link doesn't bring up any content, at least on my computer.

As I said, that is the Chinese study that was discontinued due to a lack of patients. And, pardon me for being quite skeptical of anything coming out of China right now, even if it is published in Lancet.

Can't disagree with that one...

Found this.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...esivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19

Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059).
 
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Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections, experts say

”South Korea’s infectious disease experts said Thursday that dead virus fragments were the likely cause of over 260 people here testing positive again for the novel coronavirus days and even weeks after marking full recoveries.

Oh Myoung-don, who leads the central clinical committee for emerging disease control, said the committee members found little reason to believe that those cases could be COVID-19 reinfections or reactivations, which would have made global efforts to contain the virus much more daunting.

“The tests detected the ribonucleic acid of the dead virus,” said Oh, a Seoul National University hospital doctor, at a press conference Thursday held at the National Medical Center.”

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200429000724
Hmm, well then what does that say about the accuracy of tests now being used? Are those tests that gave the false positive results in South Korea still in use, and if so, where?
 
About testing - this paper

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/2/03-0731_article

is a bit old but it is an interesting read anyway where the practical constraints, the specific issues those tests may have, the calibration vs reference and the 4 essential (parameters sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive - more about those here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_and_specificity#Confusion_matrix).

We are very far away from a simple yes/no test that is in the minds of many people especially if we don't know the exact prevalence. Redo the Wikipedia example with different prevalence percentages if you want. If you don't have well-defined idea of the prevalence, this turns in a nice Bayesian exercise where you update your prior estimation as you go.
 
Lemme check on my stimulus money:

View attachment 58917

Oh well...


I will get a payment (though I don't need it).

I wonder if it is "taxable income" or not?

1588199333642.png


I'll wait for the check.

Obama sent me a check, for being a "First Time Homebuyer" - well, I qualified under the rules, though I wasn't.

He was more generous:

1588199711385.png
 
Hmm, well then what does that say about the accuracy of tests now being used? Are those tests that gave the false positive results in South Korea still in use, and if so, where?

Well, RT-PCR amplifies the RNA of the virus to make it easier to detect. The obvious drawback is that it also amplifies the fragments of non functional virus fragments. The phenomenon is described in the 2004 SARS paper above.
 
I will get a payment (though I don't need it).

I wonder if it is "taxable income" or not?

View attachment 61028

I'll wait for the check.

Obama sent me a check, for being a "First Time Homebuyer" - well, I qualified under the rules, though I wasn't.

He was more generous:

View attachment 61031
My current understanding is that is is NOT taxable income, although I was pretty sure that it would be taxable.
 
The problem in Spain is that the Spanish government, chaired by Pedro Sánchez, preferred to do nothing, not even the purchase of protective material. When he fulfilled the political agenda it was too late because the contagion had run wild and there was nothing left but strict confinement, there was no other alternative.

You can have different strategies in the face of the pandemic, with its pros and cons, but none can go through without protecting the lives of the most vulnerable citizens, be they children or grandparents. People's lives are important and we cannot say for them, let alone enter into considerations about their greater or lesser utility except when the health system is collapsed but not before.

The next thing will be to apply euthanasia to those who are not productive for society, which ended up leading to what we all know.


Stop writing nonsense. Your obsessions, conspiracies, and paranoia should be discussed with a professional; not here. You are exhausting.
 
Third of UK Covid-19 patients taken to hospital die, study finds
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...covid-19-patients-taken-to-hospital-are-dying

[ The study tracked the outcomes of nearly 17,000 patients – around one-third of all those admitted to hospital in the UK – and found that 33% had died, 49% were discharged and 17% were still receiving treatment after two weeks... ]

[ “ICU is not something where the sickest patients all come to die,” said Dr Annemarie Docherty, a consultant in critical care and researcher at the University of Edinburgh. “We have specific tools like ventilation, renal support for kidneys, that we can deliver while people get better. For Covid, all we can offer is organ support while people are getting better. For a large number of people in hospital this is just not appropriate and people are unlikely to improve with these interventions.” ]

[ The most significant health risk factor was obesity, increasing risk of death by 37% – a greater amount than heart disease (31%), lung disease (19%) or kidney disease (25%)... ]

[ Semple said that crucial lessons could be learnt from how the Ebola epidemic was brought under control. “Key to eradicating Ebola was the provision of same-day or next-morning reporting of test results which allowed proper isolation of cases and rapid release from confinement for suspected cases,” he said. “It will be the same for Covid-19. We need widespread rapid access to same-day or next-morning test results to keep Covid-19 at bay which in turn will allow our society and economy to regain function.” ]

I talked recently to my friend in London who got out of the hospital after being treated for COVID (he's 56, otherwise good health).
He said 1/2 way through his stay, while on the oxygen mask, he was told if he doesn't improve ICU and intubation was the next step.
Talk about frightening. Fortunately his health took a turn for the better and he was released a couple days later.
 
I only have a couple of basic law subjects under my belt so I cannot delve deeply into legal definitions and their application. My view of speculation relates particularly to the scientific and engineering definitions.

I know that witnesses cannot acceptably speculate in most legal litigation because they are constrained to experienced( often unreliable) facts but circumstantial evidence needs inference and speculation to be to be assessed by others, as to its worth. A different jury can and does give a different result - jury selection and trial location is a game regularly played out.

The legal process can be enhanced by science but science is seldom enhanced by law.

On ASR re this Covid-19 thread I will mainly lean toward a science/engineering view.

Should you wish to take it into the legal realm you will need to explain your posits for this forum.
I give up.
 
View attachment 60958

What practical relevance has the attack of this virus to legal thinking practises - 40 years of practise or otherwise? There is no legal manual on how to fix it, and law is about precedent in the main. No conclusive precedent yet.

When the dust has settled the lawyers will be all over it. They may just kick-start economic recovery. :facepalm:
You are correct. Your politically correct "scientific" 21st century approach will save the day. I suppose we need to shut down again this fall just to be safe. The advertising lawyers will be all over it. Anybody with the virus will sue every deep pocket in the country. At least we won't be subjected to the Roundup cancer commercials anymore. The covid commercials and billboards will be mind numbing. I started to dry cough today after purchasing essential junk food at Walmart today. I need to sue.
 
This is offensive rhetoric and a very inappropriate parallel.

Maybe we can settle for a Logan's Run sort of world. Life's a dream until the age of thirty then you are ejected.

Throw in some Soylent Green for efficiency.

;)
 
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More positive news regarding remdesivir. And again, as with HCQ, it appears that treatment earlier in the course of infection is more effective. The US market opened ~2% higher on the news.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-says-remdesivir-shows-improvement-130650230.html

I've mentioned this before and likely a certain public official has discredited it with some bizarre thinking, but Vitamin D levels which are increased by UV exposure (on the skin NOT inside the body). It is also available in gelcap form for those afraid of solar overexposure.

https://hospitalhealthcare.com/covi...t-biomarker-for-symptom-severity-in-covid-19/ Vitamin D has been shown to not only reduce the production of these pro-inflammatory cytokines but to increase the expression of anti-inflammatory cytokines by macrophages. This may be of value given the proinflammatory cytokine milieu observed in those infected with COVID-194 and how this “cytokine storm” leads to acute respiratory distress syndrome.

In light of the possible immune-enhancing effects, a recent retrospective analysis was undertaken of vitamin D status in patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection.3 Using a database from three hospitals in Southern Asian countries, the author categorised 212 cases of COVID-19 infections as mild, ordinary, severe and critical and matched these to 25(OH)D status. Normal was defined as 25(OH)D > 30ng/ml, insufficient, 21–29ng/ml and deficient as <20ng/ml. The analysis revealed that for those with mild infection, mean 25(OH)D levels were 31.2ng/ml, ordinary, 27.4 ng/ml, severe, 21.2ng/ml and critical the lowest at 17.1ng/ml. These differences were found to be statistically significant and hint at the possibly that patients with higher levels of 25(OH)D have less severe symptoms

In summary, while vitamin D is known to have immune-enhancing properties, in the absence of clinical studies, the value of either supplementing or maintaining adequate vitamin D levels to reduce the symptom burden in those with COVID-19 infection remain unclear. Nevertheless, based on the latest analysis,3 it would seem eminently sensible for clinicians to ensure that those infected with COVID-19 have adequate vitamin D levels because this may lessen the effects of the virus and possibly save more lives.

  1. McCartney DM, Byrne DG. Optimisation of Vitamin D status for enhanced immune-protection against Covid-19. Ir Med J 2020;113(4):58.
  2. Alipio M. Vitamin D supplementation could possibly improve clinical outcomes of patients infected with Coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) (April 8, 2020). https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571484 (accessed April 2020).
  3. Huang C et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 2020;395(10223):497–506.
  4. Xu Z, Shi L, Wang Y et al. Pathological findings of COVID-19 associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Lancet Resp Med 2020;8(4):420–22.
https://www.nutraingredients.com/Ar...-and-severity-of-coronavirus-says-researchers

Clear link between vitamin D deficiency and severity of coronavirus, says researchers
By Nikki Hancocks
28-Apr-2020 - Last updated on 29-Apr-2020 at 08:21 GMT

Getty | AntonioGuillem Getty | AntonioGuillem
Related tags: Vitamin d, coronavirus

Vitamin D deficiency may play an important role in the severity of COVID-19 infections so supplementation should be strongly advised at this time, according to researchers after studying the mortality rates across the globe.

Researchers from Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland, studied the high prevalence of Vitamin D deficiency in Northern Hemisphere countries and the possible role of vitamin D in suppressing the severe inflammatory responses seen in very ill COVID-19 patients and in COVID-19 deaths.
The work was undertaken by Dr Eamon Laird, from the School of Medicine at Trinity College Dublin, and Professor Rose Anne Kenny, Principal Investigator and founder of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), in collaboration with Professor Jon Rhodes and Dr Sree Subramanian at the University of Liverpool.
Published as an editorial in the Journal of Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics, the authors point out that it is becoming clear that countries in the Southern Hemisphere such as Australia are seeing relatively low mortality due to COVID-19, which can no longer feasibly be related to the later appearance and spread of the virus.
The study states that all countries that lie below a latitude of 35 degrees North have relatively low mortality from COVID-19, whereas people in countries that lie thirty-five degrees North and above receive insufficient sunlight for adequate vitamin D levels in winter and spring. These include Italy and Spain, which have low population levels of vitamin D.
Mortality rates from COVID-19 are higher at these latitudes, with the exception of Nordic countries, where vitamin D supplementation is widespread and deficiency much less common.
Vitamin D is important in regulation and suppression of the inflammatory cytokine response, which plays a role in the severe consequences of COVID-19 and ‘acute respiratory distress syndrome’ associated with ventilation and mortality in COVID-19.
The report argues that further research is 'urgently needed' to assess whether there may be a correlation between vitamin D status and severity of COVID-19 but says that, in the meantime, governments should be advocating supplementation of the vitamin.
It states: "A substantial proportion of the population in the Northern Hemisphere will currently be vitamin D deficient, and supplements eg. 1000 units per day are very safe. It is time for governments to strengthen recommendations for vitamin D intake and supplementation, particularly when under lock-down Vitamin D deficiency correlates with poor sunlight exposure, age, hypertension, diabetes, obesity and ethnicity—all features associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19."
Public Health England, and the Scottish and Welsh governments have issued recommendations for supplements for all adults from October to March, and supplementation all year round for adults living in care homes or nursing homes, required to wear clothes that cover most of the skin when outdoors, or with dark skin.
The National Health Service has also recommended everyone consider taking 10 micrograms of vitamin D a day during lockdown as they may not be getting enough vitamin D from sunlight if they’re indoors most of the day.
Professor Kenny says: “Similar public health recommendations are called for in Ireland. This advice is of importance given high mortality rates for SARS-CoV-2 infection in our nursing home sector. We are recommending that all nursing home residents take vitamin D.”
Dr Laird adds that whilst vitamin D can be consumed through the diet, supplementation can help ensure sufficient levels in the bloodstream.
He says: “In addition to metabolism in the skin, which is due to sun exposure, Vitamin D is present in foods such as oily fish (salmon, tuna, sardines), cheese, egg yolks and beef liver. However, supplementation is the best means of ensuring sufficient Vitamin D blood levels. As the effects of coronavirus continue, many of us are limited in the time we can spend outdoors, so extra care is required to keep vitamin D levels healthy.”


Source: Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics
Rhodes. J. M. et al
"Editorial: low population mortality from COVID‐19 in countries south of latitude 35 degrees North – supports vitamin D as a factor determining severity"

I would suspect that Vitamin D supplementation would blow Remsedevir out of the water. Probably an exaggeration, but certainly easier than intravenous infusion (and cheaper.) They could be used together. Final comment, the references may not be conclusive but if I was a physician dealing with Covid cases, I would check Vitamin D levels and supplement as needed to bring it up to normal levels.
 
Other forums ban assholes, why not this one?
Scott this is not appreciated, this can be a emotive subject so we need to try and approach it with a good degree of tolerance and build in room for the effects of diverging opinions and personalities.

We are all arseholes at some point in time.
 
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