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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]
- Thread starter andymok
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Deleted member 65
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At the bus stop in Stockholm this morning ... ;-)
Yes. Getting the economy back on track will demand social discipline. Freedom to hurt others is not real freedom. I can only say that here too in the Netherlands where we have a somewhat hybrid Covid19 regime people are by and large very disciplined.
maty
Major Contributor
-> So You’re Going Outside: A Physics-Based Coronavirus Infection Risk Estimator for Leaving the House
https://medium.com/swlh/so-youre-go...-estimator-for-leaving-the-house-d7dcae2746c0
[ Conclusions
After all this math, my biggest impression is a hopeful one. The virus may be scary, but our quotidian safeguards of masks, sanitizing, and social distancing can protect us in meaningful and understandable ways.
The numbers show that we should take these defenses seriously. Stay six feet apart (not four!), wear masks, sanitize religiously — and don’t touch your face! ]
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maty
Major Contributor
Alemania compra millones de dosis contra la gripe para evitar su interacción con el Covid-19 en otoño
[Spanish] https://www.elcomercio.es/internaci...29225622-ntrc.html?ref=https://www.google.es/
Germany Buys Millions of Flu Shots to Avoid Interaction with Covid-19 in Fall
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=&sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elcomercio.es/internacional/union-europea/alemania-compra-millones-dosis-gripe-lucha-coronavirus-20200429225622-ntrc.html?ref=https://www.google.es/
[ The German government has ordered 4.5 million supplementary doses of common flu vaccines for inoculation in the coming autumn and winter. The federal Minister of Health, Jens Spahn, affirms that this measure is intended to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed by the simultaneous care of patients with the common flu and infected with the coronavirus.
Spahn stressed this Wednesday to the newspaper 'Neuen Osnabrücker Zeitung' that the Covid-19 pandemic is more than likely to continue after the summer. These vaccines must be ordered well in advance, as manufacturers are currently planning their capacities and the distribution of doses in different countries according to demand. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), responsible for coordinating the fight against Sars-Covid-19 in Germany, already warned at the beginning of the pandemic that a possible simultaneous infection with the common flu is extremely dangerous, given that the immune system the patient would be overwhelmed when it comes to fighting both diseases at the same time. ]
In Spain, Andalusia will make vaccination compulsory for certain groups. Last week, it ordered an additional amount for the following flu season. I have no news that other Autonomous Communities have decided the same.
[Spanish] https://www.elcomercio.es/internaci...29225622-ntrc.html?ref=https://www.google.es/
Germany Buys Millions of Flu Shots to Avoid Interaction with Covid-19 in Fall
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=&sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elcomercio.es/internacional/union-europea/alemania-compra-millones-dosis-gripe-lucha-coronavirus-20200429225622-ntrc.html?ref=https://www.google.es/
[ The German government has ordered 4.5 million supplementary doses of common flu vaccines for inoculation in the coming autumn and winter. The federal Minister of Health, Jens Spahn, affirms that this measure is intended to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed by the simultaneous care of patients with the common flu and infected with the coronavirus.
Spahn stressed this Wednesday to the newspaper 'Neuen Osnabrücker Zeitung' that the Covid-19 pandemic is more than likely to continue after the summer. These vaccines must be ordered well in advance, as manufacturers are currently planning their capacities and the distribution of doses in different countries according to demand. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), responsible for coordinating the fight against Sars-Covid-19 in Germany, already warned at the beginning of the pandemic that a possible simultaneous infection with the common flu is extremely dangerous, given that the immune system the patient would be overwhelmed when it comes to fighting both diseases at the same time. ]
In Spain, Andalusia will make vaccination compulsory for certain groups. Last week, it ordered an additional amount for the following flu season. I have no news that other Autonomous Communities have decided the same.
maty
Major Contributor
Coronavirus may lurk deep in lungs after patients recover, study suggests
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...-lurk-deep-lungs-after-patients-recover-study
However, the researchers found complete strains of the virus in tissue deep in her lungs. They put tissue samples under an electron microscope to confirm the existence of the intact coronavirus enveloped in a crown-like shell.
The hidden strains had not been causing any obvious symptoms. The lung tissue featured the damage typically caused by a viral infection, but the absence of the virus in the rest of the body made detection difficult because the testing methods in mass use do not retrieve samples from deep in the lungs.
Bian’s team suggested flushing the lungs of patients before they are discharged from hospital, for more accurate detection of hidden strains.
Also known as bronchoalveolar lavage, this involves inserting a tube containing a washing fluid into the lungs via a patient’s mouth... ]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronchoalveolar_lavage
[ Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) (also known as bronchoalveolar washing) is a diagnostic method of the lower respiratory system in which a bronchoscope is passed through the mouth or nose into an appropriate airway in the lungs, with a measured amount of fluid introduced and then collected for examination. This method is typically performed to diagnose pathogenic infections of the lower respiratory airways[1][2][3] (leading to, for example pneumonia[4][5][6] and COVID-19[7][8]), though it also has been shown to have utility in diagnosing interstitial lung disease.[9]
In particular, bronchoalveolar lavage is commonly used to diagnose infections in people with immune system problems[10], pneumonia in people on ventilators[5][6], and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).[3][11] It is the most common method used to sample the epithelial lining fluid (ELF) and to determine the protein composition of the pulmonary airways.[3][11] BAL has even been used therapeutically to remove mucus, improve airway ventilation, and reduce airway inflammation in conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (PAP).[12][13][14][15][16] ... ]
https://clairesplacefoundation.org/cfuniversity/term/bronchoalveolar-lavage-bal/
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...-lurk-deep-lungs-after-patients-recover-study
- Postmortem of woman finds she had undetected traces in lungs after testing negative three times and being discharged from hospital
- As WHO investigates why some recovered patients test positive again, the medical community works to assess any lasting effect on the body
However, the researchers found complete strains of the virus in tissue deep in her lungs. They put tissue samples under an electron microscope to confirm the existence of the intact coronavirus enveloped in a crown-like shell.
The hidden strains had not been causing any obvious symptoms. The lung tissue featured the damage typically caused by a viral infection, but the absence of the virus in the rest of the body made detection difficult because the testing methods in mass use do not retrieve samples from deep in the lungs.
Bian’s team suggested flushing the lungs of patients before they are discharged from hospital, for more accurate detection of hidden strains.
Also known as bronchoalveolar lavage, this involves inserting a tube containing a washing fluid into the lungs via a patient’s mouth... ]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronchoalveolar_lavage
[ Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) (also known as bronchoalveolar washing) is a diagnostic method of the lower respiratory system in which a bronchoscope is passed through the mouth or nose into an appropriate airway in the lungs, with a measured amount of fluid introduced and then collected for examination. This method is typically performed to diagnose pathogenic infections of the lower respiratory airways[1][2][3] (leading to, for example pneumonia[4][5][6] and COVID-19[7][8]), though it also has been shown to have utility in diagnosing interstitial lung disease.[9]
In particular, bronchoalveolar lavage is commonly used to diagnose infections in people with immune system problems[10], pneumonia in people on ventilators[5][6], and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).[3][11] It is the most common method used to sample the epithelial lining fluid (ELF) and to determine the protein composition of the pulmonary airways.[3][11] BAL has even been used therapeutically to remove mucus, improve airway ventilation, and reduce airway inflammation in conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (PAP).[12][13][14][15][16] ... ]
https://clairesplacefoundation.org/cfuniversity/term/bronchoalveolar-lavage-bal/
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maty
Major Contributor
¿Es la elevada mortalidad en Europa consecuencia de una mutación letal del coronavirus?
[Spanish] https://www.abc.es/ciencia/abci-ele...n-letal-coronavirus-202004291359_noticia.html
Is high mortality in Europe the consequence of a lethal coronavirus mutation?
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.abc.es/ciencia/abci-elevada-mortalidad-europa-consecuencia-mutacion-letal-coronavirus-202004291359_noticia.html
[ A team of researchers from the Chinese University of Zhejlang believe they have found the answer. And, in his opinion, we could have underestimated the ability of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus to mutate into more dangerous and deadly variants.
Every time they replicate, all viruses undergo random genetic modifications that affect part of their genome. Most of these mutations are minor and do not alter the capabilities and functions of the virus too much. And until now it was thought that this was also the case of the coronarivus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.
But according to a preliminary study published just a few days ago on the medRxiv server that's a misconception. Indeed, Chinese researchers believe that SARS-Cov-2 has already acquired "mutations capable of substantially modifying its pathogenicity." And they have found that some strains become up to 270 times more virulent than others.
Hangpin Yao, the paper's first signatory, and his team came to this conclusion after isolating eleven different strains of the virus in Chinese patients, in which they managed to identify up to 33 different mutations. The effects of 19 of those mutations are still unknown, but some of them directly affect the virus's surface protein that serves to couple and infect patients' cells. To verify the effect of these mutations, the researchers infected cells with different variants of the virus and found that certain strains produce 270 times more viral load than others, killing the cell much faster.
The next step was to trace different strains of the virus in different areas of the world to find those that corresponded to the analyzed sequences. And the most virulent turned out to be, precisely, those that are affecting some countries in Europe and New York, the city where the virus probably came from Italy, according to a previous study by Northeastern University, and in which the highest death rates for the entire United States... ]
[ The conclusions, however, not yet reviewed by peers, should be taken with caution, although the findings seem to coincide with those of other investigations carried out in other countries of the world. ]
[Spanish] https://www.abc.es/ciencia/abci-ele...n-letal-coronavirus-202004291359_noticia.html
Is high mortality in Europe the consequence of a lethal coronavirus mutation?
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.abc.es/ciencia/abci-elevada-mortalidad-europa-consecuencia-mutacion-letal-coronavirus-202004291359_noticia.html
[ A team of researchers from the Chinese University of Zhejlang believe they have found the answer. And, in his opinion, we could have underestimated the ability of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus to mutate into more dangerous and deadly variants.
Every time they replicate, all viruses undergo random genetic modifications that affect part of their genome. Most of these mutations are minor and do not alter the capabilities and functions of the virus too much. And until now it was thought that this was also the case of the coronarivus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.
But according to a preliminary study published just a few days ago on the medRxiv server that's a misconception. Indeed, Chinese researchers believe that SARS-Cov-2 has already acquired "mutations capable of substantially modifying its pathogenicity." And they have found that some strains become up to 270 times more virulent than others.
Hangpin Yao, the paper's first signatory, and his team came to this conclusion after isolating eleven different strains of the virus in Chinese patients, in which they managed to identify up to 33 different mutations. The effects of 19 of those mutations are still unknown, but some of them directly affect the virus's surface protein that serves to couple and infect patients' cells. To verify the effect of these mutations, the researchers infected cells with different variants of the virus and found that certain strains produce 270 times more viral load than others, killing the cell much faster.
The next step was to trace different strains of the virus in different areas of the world to find those that corresponded to the analyzed sequences. And the most virulent turned out to be, precisely, those that are affecting some countries in Europe and New York, the city where the virus probably came from Italy, according to a previous study by Northeastern University, and in which the highest death rates for the entire United States... ]
[ The conclusions, however, not yet reviewed by peers, should be taken with caution, although the findings seem to coincide with those of other investigations carried out in other countries of the world. ]
I suppose you goto the waca and moan on day 2 of the test match that's there's no rugby on too lolOh, for some real experts on the topic.
Find a specialist forum mate , this is a audio forum.
Oh for some more audio specialists. Just kidding.
Experts on other forums do not inform members, here.
P.S. Re cricket, if I want to see the grass grow I have a lawn at home. Also, not interested in men with short necks trying to further compress them. Or Caber tossers and other sweaty grunting tossers.
Lockdown does provide some benefits.
Shame about motor sport shutdown, though.
Oh for the days of amateur high-level sport that was basically self-sufficient and didn't need billions to keep it going and didn't have those overly verbose celebrity commentators and other hangers-on.
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Dave Zan
Active Member
You certainly didn't provide any evidence that Maty's model produced incorrect results.
Nor evidence of incorrect inputs.
Just made some dismissive statement that he wrote "If" and had assumptions and calculations.
Well, Shock Horror.
So it looks like you want to discard mathematical models for other reasons.
Rather than discard models and end up in a world of "We don't have a model so my preconceived idea is as valid as any" the sensible approach would be to fix them when they produce incorrect results and enter the correct inputs.
All models are incorrect of course, merely a question of how much.
Many are sufficiently correct to be useful.
Which ones inspired your comment that we should discard them?
Same as every other disease...ever - we always only know detected cases.
@PierreV posted an informative link on how this is dealt with by statisticians.
https://www.audiosciencereview.com/...9-by-sars-cov-2-no-politics.12515/post-386116
"fantastically dishonest" is more than a bit hyped. Since we only ever do know "detected cases" it's merely convenient shorthand to say "cases".
I would say a detected infection is a "case", an undetected infection is just an "infection" no case has been raised.
But I wouldn't quibble about it.
Oh, for some real experts on the topic.
Experts are kind of busy at the moment, but on this forum @CtheArgie and @PierreV know their stuff.
Excellent news about HK.
In my home, the Capital Territory (like District of Columbia in the US) no new cases reported for days either.
Even better - no known cases at all. The last case has left hospital, and now no one in quarantine.
Thousands of tests done with no positives.
No evidence of undetected carriers.
We continue to mop up clusters in some states, others have no new cases reported for days.
It looks like we can win this war to extermination.
Best wishes
David
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If there's a model that's given correct results, let's see it. Burden of proof and all that.
As for inputs, here's a very basic one: what's the number of infections? Nobody knows. Nobody.
And that's like trying to solve for an electron energy in an atom without knowing the value of the e/m ratio of an electron.
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Dave Zan
Active Member
Simplest model of infection is exponential increase, the US numbers were almost text book.
I posted a link to the pic. look it up at Worldometer if you want.
Eventually some action started to be taken - then the situation was different so different exponents and possibly different model is required.
But very accurate prediction within the domain of validity.
The simplest models predicted that the outbreak would be serious, were dismissed in Australia by Fox News, presumably in the US too.
Now we have 3 million cases, 250 thousand deaths.
So even the simplest models were sufficiently accurate to be "useful"
Best wishes
David
If you watch what has unfolded in NYC, it's almost as if they have been actively trying to do the exact opposite, sadly. There was a video report last night of a lady there who was crying because she could not get anyone to do anything with her dead husband's body, which she had been keeping for three days on ice in her bath tub. As far as I can tell, there has been little attempt to check on people, as you suggested. The news also showed video of the subway train cars filled with homeless people sleeping in them. It's a complete disaster there.
South Korea is a interesting one , I'm not sure citizens of the UK EU or US would tolerate the methods they used to trace people's movements and associations.
maty
Major Contributor
I think the predictions in the UK have been reasonably close, certainly as good as one may hope from the small amount of data.
The predictions were to come up with a solution that did not overwhelm the health service, though we did start a bit late because the powers that be originally had a plan that the model showed would not achieve that.
This has subsequently been fairly successful since the hospital limit has been approached but not overwhelmed so far only some areas have been in trouble. The care industry (the old and palliative), however, had been even more run down and they have been scandalously neglected IMO, but that is political so I'll stop there.
I think the building of emergency hospitals was at least partly a PR stunt since the health service has been run down over the last 10 years or so and is very short staffed anyway, so short of the Armed services manning then (which would have happened) they were never going to have an adequate staff for the number of beds.
The financial hit from a pandemic was always going to be MASSIVE. Imagining that there was any political solution that could avoid that is stupid, at best.
How bad it is going to be is impossible to predict but very bad indeed, unavoidably.
There is an indication from 1918 that areas that put in rigid controls had the fewest deaths, the quickest recovery and took the least financial hit.
It may or may not be like that again but the probability is perhaps that it will. Not too good for us, then.
Maybe it is just nature culling the plague of humans
The predictions were to come up with a solution that did not overwhelm the health service, though we did start a bit late because the powers that be originally had a plan that the model showed would not achieve that.
This has subsequently been fairly successful since the hospital limit has been approached but not overwhelmed so far only some areas have been in trouble. The care industry (the old and palliative), however, had been even more run down and they have been scandalously neglected IMO, but that is political so I'll stop there.
I think the building of emergency hospitals was at least partly a PR stunt since the health service has been run down over the last 10 years or so and is very short staffed anyway, so short of the Armed services manning then (which would have happened) they were never going to have an adequate staff for the number of beds.
The financial hit from a pandemic was always going to be MASSIVE. Imagining that there was any political solution that could avoid that is stupid, at best.
How bad it is going to be is impossible to predict but very bad indeed, unavoidably.
There is an indication from 1918 that areas that put in rigid controls had the fewest deaths, the quickest recovery and took the least financial hit.
It may or may not be like that again but the probability is perhaps that it will. Not too good for us, then.
Maybe it is just nature culling the plague of humans
Seems nobody dies due to old age anymore.
I was thinking the same thing. Are doctors just checking the COVID box for all elderly deaths these days? When this is over, I look forward to seeing the cause of death statistics, especially for older people. During the pandemic, did any elderly people actually (officially) die of the typical causes, cancer, heart disease, pneumonia, etc. ?
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