Well, we lost 61,000 to the flu in the 2017/2018 flu season, and didn't bat an eye. No economic shut down, no masks, no panic. At least here in the US, certain people see blood in the water, and are making the most of it.
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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]
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I didn't publish a rebuttal to the Pons and Fleischman paper (which was in my field) to know that it was sketchy.
Maybe this is right, maybe it isn't, but appearance in a highly politicized medical (not scientific!) journal is no indication of correctness.
BTW, that link doesn't bring up any content, at least on my computer.
As I said, that is the Chinese study that was discontinued due to a lack of patients. And, pardon me for being quite skeptical of anything coming out of China right now, even if it is published in Lancet.
I will leave this here , make of it what you will.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-first-wold-war-was-a-war-of-choice/
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-first-wold-war-was-a-war-of-choice/
This is an interesting point. What all the concern shows is that our cultural tolerance for 'unplanned' death has declined. Compare the willingness by which soldiers in the First World War accepted to be sent into machine gun fire and the resulting pointless death toll, with the far lower numbers in the second world war, and the lower numbers in every subsequent war. Life has become too valuable to lose. Or, as the economist in me says: the net present value of income lost has become so much greater thanks to our increased standard of living. Hence we are prepared to pay a much greater price for not losing our lives.
I have published research on past epidemics, and there is no doubt this is a very mild one compared to many others. People compare it to the Spanish flue, but that was not only far more lethal, but also killed the young rather than the (very) old. As a result the loss of years in good health that were lost was far far greater than what is being lost now. If we go back in time further, we have the Black Death of the fourteenth century that killed between a third and half of the European population. Estimates for the earlier Justinianic Plague of the sixth century are less secure, and so are estimates for the Antonine Plague (probably smallpox) of the second century AD, but even so we are talking about something like a quarter or a third of the population. The economic upheaval that followed these epidemics was enormous, with the beginning of the end for the Roman Empire, the beginning of the end for the Byzantine Empire as a major power, and the erosion of the feudal order, and the restucturing of the European economy towards one where labour was scarce and hence had to be used more efficiently. So compared to those, what we are experiencing is nothing major. As an another historian put it to me: this is a useful dress rehearsal for what may happen with a more dangerous outbreak in the future.
On the other hand, if we had not taken measures in the Netherlands our health care system would have been overwhelmed like it was in some Mediteranean countries, or in parts of the USA. So we had a lockdown, but a so called intelligent lockdown, i.e. limited to those situations where risk was greatest. The policy was based on the best possible scientific advice, and is widely supported in the country. Those who can work at home work at home, and so my wife and I are teaching online, but those who cannot work from home still go to work under conditions of social distancing where possible. Shops are still open, but bars are closed. Hotels are open, but their restaurants only for hotel guests, and with tables spaced out. Public transport is still running with a reduced timetable, and primarily for those in essential occupations. I can still go on a bicycle ride and since some camp sites are open again I can soon even go on a weekend bike tour with a little tent. If I look at the statistics, however problematic, the numbers are clearly declining, so it looks as if we got it more or less right. We did at least as good as countries under complete lockdown, and our lives and our economy were less affected. Maybe we should have been stricter, or maybe less, we may never know. There is no doubt that the economic damage is enormous, and in hindsight that may well have been a price too high to pay. So we should all be interested in the Swedish case. My own view is that it is pointless denying that this is a big and potentially very bad epidemic, but the economist in me wonders if the price that we and particularly the young pay may be too high for saving the lives of mostly very old people who would mostly have died a few months later anyway. It is a nasty dilemma, but it does not help to deny that there is a nasty epidemic going on, whatever the precise numbers, nor does it help to claim that cures are just around the corner.
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Not much I can do there: I get the full text. As for the publication in the Lancet, you are being paranoid. I fear this is precisely the problem with current public discourse in the USA: everything gets politicised. Even in China, some real and proper research is still going on, although I know the state has begun to clamp down on publication of such research on Covid19. So let us trust in the scientists and not in the politicians, whether in the USA or in China.
maty
Major Contributor
40,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
Well that's progress but it might just undo us all.
Too easy too long ?
Unfortunately if the world economy collapses it won't make much difference if Sweden did well or not. We will all end up , up shit creek.
maty
Major Contributor
The problem in Spain is that the Spanish government, chaired by Pedro Sánchez, preferred to do nothing, not even the purchase of protective material. When he fulfilled the political agenda it was too late because the contagion had run wild and there was nothing left but strict confinement, there was no other alternative.
You can have different strategies in the face of the pandemic, with its pros and cons, but none can go through without protecting the lives of the most vulnerable citizens, be they children or grandparents. People's lives are important and we cannot say for them, let alone enter into considerations about their greater or lesser utility except when the health system is collapsed but not before.
The next thing will be to apply euthanasia to those who are not productive for society, which ended up leading to what we all know.
You can have different strategies in the face of the pandemic, with its pros and cons, but none can go through without protecting the lives of the most vulnerable citizens, be they children or grandparents. People's lives are important and we cannot say for them, let alone enter into considerations about their greater or lesser utility except when the health system is collapsed but not before.
The next thing will be to apply euthanasia to those who are not productive for society, which ended up leading to what we all know.
Yes Thomas it is indeed the corollary of increased prosperity. I am not sure the workl economy will collapse, even though it is taking a very hard hit. There are two interesting examples of the benefits of such crises. The Black Death of the fourteenth century changed the relative scarcity of land and labour. Land had become quite plenty, so landowners suffered much lower rents. Labour on the other hand had become scarcer, and henc emore expesnive. This not only changed social relations, but also provided an incentive for labour saving innovation and for more market like rather than feudal social relations. For some historians this inaugurated the route to modern prosperity.
The second example is the crisis of the nineteen thirties. That crisis did not affect the long term growth trend on the twentieth century economy. Yes, the misery was horrible, but inefficient companies were succeeded by more efficient ones and growth soon picked up. It was a human and social disaster, but economically there was little long term negative effect. It is what Schumpeter called a wave of creative destruction
The challenge will be to turn the present destruction into something new and better, by, for example, opting for greener technologies, or better public health care, to name two things that are dear to my heart (others may have different preferences). Suddenly we are far less path dependent than we were.
The second example is the crisis of the nineteen thirties. That crisis did not affect the long term growth trend on the twentieth century economy. Yes, the misery was horrible, but inefficient companies were succeeded by more efficient ones and growth soon picked up. It was a human and social disaster, but economically there was little long term negative effect. It is what Schumpeter called a wave of creative destruction
The challenge will be to turn the present destruction into something new and better, by, for example, opting for greener technologies, or better public health care, to name two things that are dear to my heart (others may have different preferences). Suddenly we are far less path dependent than we were.
This is offensive rhetoric and a very inappropriate parallel.
Yes, this.
The disease is very serious, and I think some sort of shutdown in Western countries should have been put in place much earlier, perhaps in February, when the spread of this disease in the West was first detected. But whatever we call what most Western countries are doing--a quarantine, a shutdown, a lockdown--has gone too far and too long.
Having been misled by the PRC and the WHO, Western political leaders took little action in response to COVID-19 in January, spread a lot of "evidence-based" misinformation (e.g., "masks don't help") in late February and early March, and then panicked in middle to late March, when the severity of the disease (and the extent to which they had already shat the bed) became apparent. Our leaders' panic continues to be evident in their decision that the economy and civil society must be sacrificed to avoid a few triage deaths, in the unlikely event that hospitals somewhere other than Italy are overwhelmed. So far hospitals have not been overwhelmed anywhere in the United States, and the fixation on "flattening the curve" has not been reversed even in light of the emptiness of hospitals and the low effectiveness of ventilator treatment. (I criticize ventilator treatment even as I personally know someone in the estimated 12% of ventilated New Yorkers with COVID-19 who survived the disease. If 88% of those patients still die, the ventilator treatment probably ain't helping.)
The economy in the United States is collapsing. Store shelves in the New York City area are getting emptier. I haven't been able to find eggs in a month. Toilet paper for residential use is essentially impossible to find here. I recently witnessed a pathetic and stupid fight over toilet paper break out at Target when a hapless shelf stocker attempted to unload a pallet full of it.
In the United States, essentially all of our political executives--and all of them here in the New York City area--bear some responsibility for this disastrous state of affairs. I think they should all resign. All of them.
I am willing to take my chances with COVID-19. I'll keep my distance from my elderly relatives and friends who are in at-risk groups, and I'm sure no one's feelings will be hurt.
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Well we in the UK have ICU capacity to burn and are apparently over the peak however we continue to build nightingale hospitals.
Why ? One has to ask why.
I hope you're getting some business out of the construction activity.
Here in Westchester County, we need to get the exterior of our house fixed to avoid water damage, but, according to the contractors I have attempted to retain, these repairs are "nonessential" economic activity, per the order of Governor Cuomo.
I'm sorry, but this is a horrible analogy. It's a completely different dynamic, and presenting it with a straight face is disingenuous at best.
An external military threat is first of all one that is largely understood- the virus is not. It is also a threat not only of violence, but also of authority - resistence is not solely or even primarily motivated by fear of violence, but also of refusal to accept denial of independence. THAT is the fundamental foundation of our society that we protect, and SARS-CoV-19 is not threatening that in any way. You absolutely demean the sacrifice of past military servicemen by making this comparison. (and my grandfather is among those - Captain of the first Canadian ship to hit the beach on D-Day)
Once again, off the mark. Sacrificing yourself to stop a military threat does actually mean that others are freed from that responsibility - their life becomes safer as a result of your actions. 'Sacrificing' myself to the virus by "shopping for Freedom!!" or other 'open things up' economic activities does not make others any safer - in fact it does exactly the opposite by increasing the opportunities for subsequent infection by enabling the spread. If you were calling for everyone to abandon their cushy lifestyles to dedicate themselves to helping medical research, or offloading work from front-line medical staff, then it would have more credibility. Or heck, calling for economic sacrifice of those still working by higher taxes or direct donations to strengthen the support network for those who are economically impacted - that would make sense. Asking me to risk the health and possibly life of my family so that business owners feel less pain is just not going to fly.
No , I was possibly but it got given to a lower bid ... Fair enough however the projects ate up all the plasterboard in the supply chain and in doing so killed a bunch of projects that might of earned folks money .
It's not, simply how much collateral damage are we prepared to tolerate to maintain current privileges.
It's no different, if you read the political history before the second world war the similarities are striking.
Your free to disagree but please don't call me disingenuous.
maty
Major Contributor
Third of UK Covid-19 patients taken to hospital die, study finds
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...covid-19-patients-taken-to-hospital-are-dying
[ The study tracked the outcomes of nearly 17,000 patients – around one-third of all those admitted to hospital in the UK – and found that 33% had died, 49% were discharged and 17% were still receiving treatment after two weeks... ]
[ “ICU is not something where the sickest patients all come to die,” said Dr Annemarie Docherty, a consultant in critical care and researcher at the University of Edinburgh. “We have specific tools like ventilation, renal support for kidneys, that we can deliver while people get better. For Covid, all we can offer is organ support while people are getting better. For a large number of people in hospital this is just not appropriate and people are unlikely to improve with these interventions.” ]
[ The most significant health risk factor was obesity, increasing risk of death by 37% – a greater amount than heart disease (31%), lung disease (19%) or kidney disease (25%)... ]
[ Semple said that crucial lessons could be learnt from how the Ebola epidemic was brought under control. “Key to eradicating Ebola was the provision of same-day or next-morning reporting of test results which allowed proper isolation of cases and rapid release from confinement for suspected cases,” he said. “It will be the same for Covid-19. We need widespread rapid access to same-day or next-morning test results to keep Covid-19 at bay which in turn will allow our society and economy to regain function.” ]
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...covid-19-patients-taken-to-hospital-are-dying
[ The study tracked the outcomes of nearly 17,000 patients – around one-third of all those admitted to hospital in the UK – and found that 33% had died, 49% were discharged and 17% were still receiving treatment after two weeks... ]
[ “ICU is not something where the sickest patients all come to die,” said Dr Annemarie Docherty, a consultant in critical care and researcher at the University of Edinburgh. “We have specific tools like ventilation, renal support for kidneys, that we can deliver while people get better. For Covid, all we can offer is organ support while people are getting better. For a large number of people in hospital this is just not appropriate and people are unlikely to improve with these interventions.” ]
[ The most significant health risk factor was obesity, increasing risk of death by 37% – a greater amount than heart disease (31%), lung disease (19%) or kidney disease (25%)... ]
[ Semple said that crucial lessons could be learnt from how the Ebola epidemic was brought under control. “Key to eradicating Ebola was the provision of same-day or next-morning reporting of test results which allowed proper isolation of cases and rapid release from confinement for suspected cases,” he said. “It will be the same for Covid-19. We need widespread rapid access to same-day or next-morning test results to keep Covid-19 at bay which in turn will allow our society and economy to regain function.” ]
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