[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

[Xulonn]

The part about stock market is unnecessary. The graph is pretty good.

Thanks for the feedback, John. I deleted that paragraph, and will discuss that aspect in my old Coronavirus & Global Business thread

 

[RickSanchez]

That looks like a specialized front end for the Johns Hopkins page

It's using the same data visualization tool as Johns Hopkins, ArcGIS by Esri. (I built a few dashboards using ArcGIS a few years ago.) These types of tools are fairly easy to use for non-technical folks -- at lot of drag and drop, very little if any actual coding -- and can run off of simple backend data stores such as Excel. As such it wouldn't surprise me if Panama's Ministry of Health built this on their own, but certainly possible it's somehow connected to Johns Hopkins.

 

[PierreV]

France has shockingly high morbidity (14.7%) but perhaps is because they are counting cases differently or deaths differently? NY has had a huge jump in residential deaths, but since they're not tested nor frequently not autopsied, they aren't included in the official morbidity rate (4.8%).

France:
View attachment 58374

It's a bit less than 14.7% (around 11% at the moment). No idea of the current French requirements to be counted as a COVID death, but in some European countries, including mine, deaths with compatible symptoms in retirement homes (and assimilated) are counted as COVID deaths without a confirmatory test.

 

[Doodski]

Of my many "internet friends" here at ASR, Thomas Savage, Doodski and possibly more would have a difficult time weathering the quarantine here in Panama... (Google translation of an article from "La Prensa" - Panama's biggest newspaper.)

View attachment 58370

The HoRRoR!!!

 

[Doodski]

Very possible, because we have a Johns Hopkins affiliated hospital in our capital, Panama City.



View attachment 58372

Wowowowow. Fancy looking hospital. They don't look like that in Canada.

 

[stunta]

Belgian-Dutch Study: Why in times of COVID-19 you should not walk/run/bike close to each other.

This is terrifying. I've had a couple of runners (not wearing masks) go right past me from behind with less than 2 feet between us. They come out of nowhere so its hard to get out of the way. I wear a mask outside, but still. Can't even take walks around the neighborhood, I guess.

 

[JohnYang1997]

Make sure to dispose the mask right when you are at home. Slowly and gently take the mask off. Change the mask every 3-4 hours when you are outside. Bring some alcohol soaked tissue with you when you are outside and hold one in your hand it will work for a quite long time and change it when it's dry.

 

[PierreV]

This is terrifying. I've had a couple of runners (not wearing masks) go right past me from behind with less than 2 feet between us. They come out of nowhere so its hard to get out of the way. I wear a mask outside, but still. Can't even take walks around the neighborhood, I guess.

Maybe this will reassure you somewhat

https://www.bicycling.com/news/a32097735/coronavirus-viral-simulation/

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/open-letter-cfd-community-can-we-please-stop-sneezing-ferguson/

 

[RayDunzl]

This is a factual post

Devoid of politics, but not devoid of opinion, I think...

Look how bad the US is!

https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/

Yup, maybe middle of the pack when you compare with something besides "total cases".

We'll see where it goes...

 

[gikigill]

https://ncov2019.live/data

Pretty comprehensive and up to date. Pulls data from multiple sources every minute.

Built by a 17 year old from Seattle.

 

[RayDunzl]

Data site with some sortable columns:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

 

[Wes]

Thanks, that's interesting info.
1. So, if Ro = 5, 1 - 1/5 = 80%. And the estimates of Ro for Covid19 is...., around 5.7, so 82.5% as a rough guess. In any case,

2. do you agree with the general point that the fast route to so-called Herd Immunity (short of a vaccine) would involve a dramatic increase in fatalities?

1. Ro is not a constant even in the same popn. and for the same disease; so it just can't be well estimated that way

2. well, it is true that if the host popn. goes extinct then so will the pathogen

There is an old SciFi novel where a detective goes to investigate a murder on a planet. In that society each person has their own planet (with robot servants). That would keep the infections down...

 

[Xulonn]

Devoid of politics, but not devoid of opinion, I think...

Yup, maybe middle of the pack when you compare with something besides "total cases".

We'll see where it goes...

You missed my point entirely, Ray - which surprises me. It wasn't about "total cases." (Although I wouldn't call being 7th highest of the 210 nations affected by the virus "middle of the pack".)

To understand the point I was making, look at the curve and it's slope - no sign of flattening. Plus, U.S. authorities are apparently not counting those who die at home and in nursing homes and prisons because they are not hospitalized, tested and diagnosed. Then there are the vast, sparsely populated rural regions of the U.S. where "social distancing" is an inherent part of lifestyles, which slows down the spread of the disease. This combination of factors leads me to believe that the U.S. will continue to move up in percentage as well as total numbers in spite of the under-counting.

I am an American with deep roots in that country and fond memories of the seven decades I lived in the Midwest and then California. My pessimism is not because of a dislike for the U.S. or a hope that Americans will suffer more, but rather a fear that the effort to deal with the pandemic is tragically flawed and inadequate.

 

[Wes]

 

[StevenEleven]

The U.S. is the third most populous nation in the world. I don’t know how that affects the math and the modeling but I think it’s important to keep in mind, a big factor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population

 

[RayDunzl]

He should glue down the mousetraps.

 

[Prana Ferox]

You missed my point entirely, Ray - which surprises me. It wasn't about "total cases." (Although I wouldn't call being 7th highest of the 210 nations affected by the virus "middle of the pack".)

To understand the point I was making, look at the curve and it's slope - no sign of flattening. Plus, U.S. authorities are apparently not counting those who die at home and in nursing homes and prisons because they are not hospitalized, tested and diagnosed. Then there are the vast, sparsely populated rural regions of the U.S. where "social distancing" is an inherent part of lifestyles, which slows down the spread of the disease. This combination of factors leads me to believe that the U.S. will continue to move up in percentage as well as total numbers in spite of the under-counting.

I am an American with deep roots in that country and fond memories of the seven decades I lived in the Midwest and then California. My pessimism is not because of a dislike for the U.S. or a hope that Americans will suffer more, but rather a fear that the effort to deal with the pandemic is tragically flawed and inadequate.

You can't see anything at those scales, though, and Ray is right, comparing the US to individual Euro countries without correcting for population size won't tell you anything. Try the graphs at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries for a better view.

The only way to lower total cases is through recovery or fatality. What you want to see are lowering counts on the new cases per day, with rising test rates. Basically this, from Italian data:

Everything else is a lagging indicator.

 

[andymok]

Coronavirus: New Facts about Infection Mechanisms - NHK Documentary

 

[Thomas savage]

The figures used for these graphs are not representative of what's really happening imo , at best you can report on how many are dying in hospitals . There's no chance of calculating a mortality rate over all as we don't have a clue how many people have had this and not reported it.

Making meaningful comparisons between countries is even more erroneous and misleading, one wonders why anyone is bothering to do that . Beyond comparing reported deaths from hospital admissions it's utterly useless. Even then the data could be misleading and no firm conclusions should be drawn .

When all is said and done ( 24 months ) we won't be seeing many countries coming out smelling of roses in terms of how well they dealt with it. The world at large was unprepared, the nature of a pandemic requires a global effort.

what I'm seeing is a lot of clutching at straws and bravado. We are in uncharted territory to a large degree and no one's got a clue about how all this is going to shake out .

The best thing that could happen right now would be all the global leaders and central banks getting together and agreeing to a massive write down of losses that have occurred due to this pandemic . Allow states to support vital businesses we all rely on and support their citizens so no one suffers significant financial losses. Just chalk it off and press delete on the debt this creates and focus on people's health and our preparedness for this in the future.

That won't happen, what will happen is a ton of squabbling, politicizing , profiteering and finger pointing that will lead us all into further trouble that might well drag on for a decade or two. The loss of faith in governments across the world is a larger danger than this virus. You crack the fragile veneer that binds a coordinated and civilised society, there's no containing the consequences.

 

[gikigill]

The figures used for these graphs are not representative of what's really happening imo , at best you can report on how many are dying in hospitals . There's no chance of calculating a mortality rate over all as we don't have a clue how many people have had this and not reported it.

Making meaningful comparisons between countries is even more erroneous and misleading, one wonders why anyone is bothering to do that . Beyond comparing reported deaths from hospital admissions it's utterly useless. Even then the data could be misleading and no firm conclusions should be drawn .

When all is said and done ( 24 months ) we won't be seeing many countries coming out smelling of roses in terms of how well they dealt with it. The world at large was unprepared, the nature of a pandemic requires a global effort.

what I'm seeing is a lot of clutching at straws and bravado. We are in uncharted territory to a large degree and no one's got a clue about how all this is going to shake out .

The best thing that could happen right now would be all the global leaders and central banks getting together and agreeing to a massive write down of losses that have occurred due to this pandemic . Allow states to support vital businesses we all rely on and support their citizens so no one suffers significant financial losses. Just chalk it off and press delete on the debt this creates and focus on people's health and our preparedness for this in the future.

That won't happen, what will happen is a ton of squabbling, politicizing , profiteering and finger pointing that will lead us all into further trouble that might well drag on for a decade or two. The loss of faith in governments across the world is a larger danger than this virus. You crack the fragile veneer that binds a coordinated and civilised society, there's no containing the consequences.

"The best thing that could happen right now would be all the global leaders and central banks getting together and agreeing to a massive write down of losses that have occurred due to this pandemic . Allow states to support vital businesses we all rely on and support their citizens so no one suffers significant financial losses. Just chalk it off and press delete on the debt this creates and focus on people's health and our preparedness for this in the future"

Worst unemployment since 1929, hundreds of millions worldwide unemployed, stock markets reaching highs not seen in decades.

I was reading the recent analysis of a historian who suggested that the best case outcome we can hope for COVID-19 is a world war, worst case would be social destruction to a level not since Genghis Khan.

For those interested:

https://warontherocks.com/2020/04/aftershocks-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-the-new-world-disorder/

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061322

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/covid-19-and-iranian-shadows-war#

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/26/the-coronavirus-war-economy-will-change-the-world/