[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

[MediumRare]

US perspective of case rate by State, about six just as bad as Italy, or worse. I’d rather he normalized these to the day they hit 10/million. Maybe it’s fair to read lines starting to the right are worse? In that case 11 are equal/worse than Italy. Fascinating to look for trends in States with no or less strict lockdowns, will be a week or two to show up.

 

[PierreV]

Some positive indicators in Europe but hard to see much good news here, IMO. Folks are anxious to see light at the end of the tunnel but I am pessimistic. Can you convince me to feel better about this? http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#deathrates-eu
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Nope...

The bad news is that, short term, science won. Epidemiology trounced wishful thinking and posturing.

The good news should be that science will also win against the disease. But it sure doesn't seem to be in a hurry.

I was reading all papers showing up on medrxiv until last week. Not much good news there and lots of trash papers by people jumping on the bandwagon to inflate their publication numbers IMHO.

At least, that implies that they are thinking long term....

 

[Thomas savage]

Some positive indicators in Europe but hard to see much good news here, IMO. Folks are anxious to see light at the end of the tunnel but I am pessimistic. Can you convince me to feel better about this? http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#deathrates-eu
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What I fail to understand is, the countries that have kept infection rate down are just delaying the inevitable. This will pass through the majority of people on earth as I understand it.

Sure we might have a vaccine in what 6? 12 ? 18 ? Months .It would be revealing to know just how much immunity we have after catching this and recovering.

Having your population exposed sooner rather than later might not be as terrible as it seems.

 

[BDWoody]

Having your population exposed sooner rather than later might not be as terrible as it seems.

As long as you are within the limits of your health system...doesn't seem irrational to me.

 

[MediumRare]

What I fail to understand is, the countries that have kept infection rate down are just delaying the inevitable. This will pass through the majority of people on earth as I understand it.

Sure we might have a vaccine in what 6? 12 ? 18 ? Months .It would be revealing to know just how much immunity we have after catching this and recovering.

Having your population exposed sooner rather than later might not be as terrible as it seems.

Let’s stipulate that 70% will be infected. Advantages to a shallow curve:
- Health care system not overwhelmed.
- Covid patients can get treated, not triaged because too weak, old, etc.
- Other patients (70% of health care system) less disrupted.
- Later patients benefit from learned best practices.
- Net, if 3% mortality instead of 5%, saves 2% x 70% x 330 million = 4.6 million lives in US alone. :O

Disadvantage:
- Economic disruption also extended.

 

[MediumRare]

Global picture of daily new cases:

 

[BDWoody]

US perspective of case rate by State, about six just as bad as Italy, or worse. I’d rather he normalized these to the day they hit 10/million. Maybe it’s fair to read lines starting to the right are worse? In that case 11 are equal/worse than Italy. Fascinating to look for trends in States with no or less strict lockdowns, will be a week or two to show up.
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It will be very interesting to see how different states end up. I hope that given the ramping up of testing all over the country, particularly focused on areas of outbreak, the NY magnitude spike won't be repeated elsewhere.

Several states have their own contact tracing programs as well, so they aren't just waiting and hoping...

https://politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

As you say, following the individual states will be interesting. CA and Washington State, where it started, never had to deal with the overflow NY did.

States without more aggressive 'lockdown' orders aren't giving any particular reason for extra concern so far.

 

[SIY]

Belgian-Dutch Study: Why in times of COVID-19 you should not walk/run/bike close to each other.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...spreading-coronavirus-is-not-actually-a-study

I've gone from "50% of what I read from 'news' sources is bullshit" to "90% of what I read from news sources is bullshit."

 

[andymok]

One of the biggest questions to be answered is how many are asymptomatic. Until widespread testing is taking place, it is so much guesswork.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/

My humble opinion is, there's always a risk the virus spread faster than the testings done, and it could take days to show positive after infection, so the test could still miss it.

 

[andymok]

In case you or your loved one's a health worker, and need to reuse mask

Coronavirus can stay on face masks for up to a week, study finds
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...avirus-can-remain-face-masks-week-study-finds

The researchers said that “strikingly” there was still a detectable level of infection on the outer layer of a surgical face mask after seven days.

“This is exactly why it is very important if you are wearing a surgical mask you don’t touch the outside of the mask,” Peiris said.

“Because you can contaminate your hands and if you touch your eyes you could be transferring the virus to your eyes.”

Full research paper
Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30003-3/fulltext

 

[BDWoody]

My humble opinion is, there's always a risk the virus spread faster than the testings done, and it could take days to show positive after infection, so the test could still miss it.

Absolutely. Hopefully they tested the guy he got it from!

I don't think it's as much about catching every one, or assuming you can prevent any new cases...its about containing outbreaks as quickly as possible so as not to overload the medical system. With the upcoming immunity tests, combined with real time testing for active virus for symptomatic and contacts of those tested positive...the ability to keep the little fires to turn into big ones is all they are hoping for until either herd immunity has been reached (not a stretch if 50%+ or more are/were asymptomatic), or a vaccine is found.

 

[andymok]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...navirus-comes-three-variants-researchers-find

Deadly coronavirus comes in three variants, researchers find

• Types A, B and C are all derived from the pathogen first found in bats but have evolved in different ways, according to a report by British and German geneticists
• Findings show the virus has become well adapted to human transmission and mutates as it spreads, Chinese epidemiologist says

Can anyone help locate the original studies?

 

[Frank Dernie]

What I fail to understand is, the countries that have kept infection rate down are just delaying the inevitable. This will pass through the majority of people on earth as I understand it.

Sure we might have a vaccine in what 6? 12 ? 18 ? Months .It would be revealing to know just how much immunity we have after catching this and recovering.

Having your population exposed sooner rather than later might not be as terrible as it seems.

That was the original premise of the UK government until a study showed the number of people who would die due to not enough hospital capacity.
Even with lockdown it is a struggle since we started later than most because of that and personally it does seem likely there will be a second peak as soon as restrictions are relaxed leading to further restriction and so forth.
Being retired and antisocial I am tempted to stay in lockdown personally until after I have been immunised some time in 2021

 

[MediumRare]

That was the original premise of the UK government until a study showed the number of people who would die due to not enough hospital capacity.
Even with lockdown it is a struggle since we started later than most because of that and personally it does seem likely there will be a second peak as soon as restrictions are relaxed leading to further restriction and so forth.
Being retired and antisocial I am tempted to stay in lockdown personally until after I have been immunised some time in 2021

True, and so-called herd immunity requires 90% inoculated. Even 80% has resulted in fatal measles outbreaks.

 

[BDWoody]

True, and so-called herd immunity requires 90% inoculated. Even 80% has resulted in fatal measles outbreaks.

And, given that we were all told in those foggy early days that the R0 was @1.3, when it turns out it is more like @5.7, those differences change the entire discussion.

 

[maty]

https://twitter.com/mlalanda

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-> https://twitter.com/bmj_latest

Face masks for the public during the covid-19 crisis

[PDF] https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1435.full.pdf

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200407/coronavirus-vueltas-con-las-mascarillas-7921125

 

[maty]

Mask 3M 8320 FFP2

https://www.3m.com.es/3M/es_ES/empresa-es/todos-productos-3m/~/3M-8320-Mascarilla-desechable-para-partículas-autofiltrante-FFP2-NR-D-sin-válvula-10-mascarillas-caja-/?N=5002385+8709322+8711017+8711405+8720539+8720542+8720774+8738266+3292822212&preselect=3293786499&rt=rud

https://www.3m.com.au/3M/en_AU/comp...-8320-P2/?N=5002385+8711017+3293219352&rt=rud

[PDF] https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media...eet-3m-8300-series-disposable-respirators.pdf

Mask Climax 1720 FFP2

https://www.productosclimax.com/producto/1720/

[PDF] https://www.productosclimax.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/2016_MASCARILLA-1720.pdf

 

[RickSanchez]

Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

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[ The recent numbers are most likely an undercount. Even in normal times, death certificates take time to be processed and collected, and complete death tallies can take weeks to become final. This is especially true for cases involving coronavirus. “Covid deaths all have to be manually coded,” said Bob Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the C.D.C.’s National Center for Health Statistics, adding that death counts from New York City typically lag actual deaths by 10 or 11 days.

But even if the current count is perfect, roughly 9,780 people have died of all causes over the past month in New York City, about 5,000 more than is typical.

The numbers for the last two weeks of the period are even more stark: nearly 7,000 dead, more than three times as many deaths as would normally be expected this time of year... ]

Also worth noting the numbers for COVID-19 deaths in NYC are based on confirmed cases (i.e., positive tests), which are almost exclusively limited to deaths in hospitals. This is contributing (perhaps significantly) to under reporting. COVID-19 at-home deaths are not added to the COVID-19 tally -- unless that person had previously been tested and confirmed, which is likely a very small % -- although down the road that may change. I would expect this type of under-reporting is prevalent throughout the U.S.


At-Home COVID-19 Deaths May Be Significantly Undercounted in New York City
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/07/us/07reuters-health-coronavirus-fdny.html

"A spokesman for the city Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, which certifies findings on causes of death, said the official death count only includes those who had a test confirming they were infected with the virus.

The spokesman did not know what portion of people who died at home had been tested but said the department and the city Office of Chief Medical Examiner are working on counting the cases in which the deceased did not have a test."

 

[Prana Ferox]

What I fail to understand is, the countries that have kept infection rate down are just delaying the inevitable. This will pass through the majority of people on earth as I understand it.

Literally every day we figure out new ways to minimize the effects of the virus, increase chances of survival and reduce recovery time & impact. It's not just that stretching this out improves timesharing of ICU resources and doctor and nurse-hours, it's that the per-case impact is greatly reduced.

I've gone from "50% of what I read from 'news' sources is bullshit" to "90% of what I read from news sources is bullshit."

This is recognition of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect, keep it with you, it will serve you well

 

[Frank Dernie]

Also worth noting the numbers for COVID-19 deaths in NYC are based on confirmed cases (i.e., positive tests), which are almost exclusively limited to deaths in hospitals. This is contributing (perhaps significantly) to under reporting. COVID-19 at-home deaths are not added to the COVID-19 tally -- unless that person had previously been tested and confirmed, which is likely a very small % -- although down the road that may change. I would expect this type of under-reporting is prevalent throughout the U.S.

Certainly here in the UK it is no secret the reported Covid-19 deaths are only deaths in hospital.
This is not least since patients who die elsewhere won't have been tested so it isn't known if they had Covid-19 or not.