[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

[maty]

Ministry of Health (Spain)

Directrices de buenas prácticas en los centros de trabajo
Good practice guidelines in the workplace
[PDF, Spanish] https://d500.epimg.net/descargables/2020/04/11/19c6da467095ac70311b9cd6a5391e4d.pdf

 

[maty]

Dos metros de distancia y lavar la ropa a 60 grados, la guía del Gobierno para los que vuelvan al trabajo
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/economia/2020-04...a-del-gobierno-para-la-vuelta-al-trabajo.html

Two meters away and washing clothes at 60 degrees, the government guide for those returning to work
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://elpais.com/economia/2020-04-11/dos-metros-de-distancia-y-lavar-la-ropa-a-60-grados-la-guia-del-gobierno-para-la-vuelta-al-trabajo.html

Now you can read the PDF content thanks to the translator.

We return to the same confinement conditions of two weeks ago. Strict but not as much as now. Well, it is to be feared that these conditions will continue for many months until there is an effective treatment and / or vaccine. This will be the new normal.

Ready to confine themselves to neighborhoods, cities, regions... where necessary if there is a foreseeable rebound of the pandemic.


Update

In Spain, some nonessential employees can go back to work starting Monday
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/world/coronavirus-news.html#link-4bcadaba

 

[Putter]

What I fail to understand is, the countries that have kept infection rate down are just delaying the inevitable. This will pass through the majority of people on earth as I understand it.

Sure we might have a vaccine in what 6? 12 ? 18 ? Months .It would be revealing to know just how much immunity we have after catching this and recovering.

Having your population exposed sooner rather than later might not be as terrible as it seems.

The slower spread of this means medical science has a better chance to catch up on treatments. Chloroquine and Z pack may well have a role to play in treatments. The problem is what is the effective dosage to avoid toxicity? When should it be given, when the patient starts showing symptons, after they been intubated, .......? How effective is it? These kind of questions can only be resolved with good clinical studies. Cloroquine is just an example. There are several other anntivirals being tested. My guess is that no matter what they come up with, some people are going to die in spite of the best treatment options.

On other topics, here's a video from Chris Cuomo on CNN where he basically describes how he was told he needed to fight the virus from a Pulmonary Doctor and that included breathing exercises and staying active as much as possible vs. just staying in bed. It sound reasonable, but I'm not a Doctor. I just play one in this thread. This might well go back to what I mentioned earlier about improved treatment options.

Finally, on what was apparently considered a political note to the point where the previous thread was shut down, was a post which seemed to indicate that countries headed by women were having better success combating the virus. It didn't seem political, maybe sexist but in good way.

 

[Wes]

Anybody who thinks the response to Covid 19 can be separated from politics is delusional. View attachment 58217

politics as in different parties or factions, or politics as in efficient and competent action of administrative agencies?

 

[JIW]

Map over German ICU and Hospital occupation.

 

[Wes]

True, and so-called herd immunity requires 90% inoculated. Even 80% has resulted in fatal measles outbreaks.

This is an over-simplification. So-called "herd immunity" is just a common or lay term for the likelihood that the pathogen will become extinct within a given host popn. or (earlier) only infect immune members of the host popn. Worse, there are a number of "definitions" of it floating around. The best ones are a particular threshold proportion of immune individuals that should lead to a decline in incidence of infection or a pattern of immunity that should protect a population from invasion of a new infection.

A very simple model is that incidence will decline at a transition point given by 1 –1/Ro - or maybe better, Rt. A simple analogy is to the critical point at which a nuclear chain reaction becomes self sustaining. Pathogen growth is almost exactly that: a chain reaction in an Island Biology context (hosts are the islands, and the pathogen will destroy the island and become extinct itself unless it can disperse to a new island, another host before then).

The critical thing to realize is that R is not a constant but is a function of may other factors, e.g.
- nature of the immunity induced by the vaccine (not just the strength)
- mixing patterns in host popns.
- infection transmission in host popns.
- distribution of the vaccine and immunity in host popns.

The problem of 'freeloaders' can be a big one - Anti-Vaxers are one such group.

One of the biggest modelling problems is that host popns. are heterogeneous, so have to be divided into sub-groups with a complex of infection interactions among them. Once you have that sort of model, you then have to populate it with hard to gather and and ever-changing data...


I dunno if that made much sense, as it isn't too close to the education of the EE popn. but suffice it to say that you can't just grab a %Vaccination rate for one disease and use it for another, not can you do the same thing for one country or culture and apply it to another.

 

[maty]

La gesta contrarreloj de dos pymes españolas para fabricar 5.000 respiradores y salvar vidas
[Spanish] https://www.eldiario.es/economia/familiar-acabo-salvando-vidas-respirador_0_1014548609.html

The feat against the clock of two Spanish SMEs to manufacture 5,000 respirators and save lives
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.eldiario.es/economia/familiar-acabo-salvando-vidas-respirador_0_1014548609.html

[ A company in Móstoles had the technology of a portable respirator. Another from Alcalá has stopped its production of infrared cameras to assemble them. Industry mediated for the international purchase of thousands of critical components ]

[ Unlike the respirator that Seat is manufacturing, which is compassionate and helps to keep the patient until there is a free respirator, the one from Hersill is more similar to that of the Intensive Care Units. It is called "Vitae 40", it was manufactured in 2013 and it obtained CE certification in February 2019, so few units have been sold so far and almost all have been exported, as explained by the president of the company, Benjamín Herranz , who has granted a single interview with Efe... ]

[ "In the end, with everyone's work, about 16 hours a day, we have managed to make what is done in half a year or a year be done in two weeks", summarizes a source from Industria, the department that has finally been able to coordinate both production as the obtaining of components. There are other companies, such as Premo or the association of technological companies Ametic, that have helped in what they have been able with planes, tracks and suppliers to buy in international markets, even chartering private flights, they point out from Escribano, to carry out the project of the respirators that have finally been built between these two SMEs...

The respirators cost 5,000 euros each unit, they are all destined for the Ministry of Health and are being distributed among the autonomous communities, where more than 200 have already arrived and another 4,800 will be added for several weeks to complete the 5,000 units committed. "Now we already have almost all the components purchased for some 4,000 respirators," says relieved Escribano, who is proud of how his staff has turned to this project: "It is a good story of collaboration." Now, it remains to learn the lesson: "Hersill exports 70% of what it produces. We, in many products export 90%. The best lesson to be drawn from this is that we must ensure that Spain has production capacities, trust them and protect them," he concludes... ]


https://www.hersill.com/en/producto/vitae-40/

[PDF] https://www.hersill.com/wp-content/...Emergency_Ventilator_technical_dasheet_en.pdf

 

[maty]

What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks?
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/

 

[maty]

España despide el confinamiento total con el coronavirus en caída acelerada
[Spanish] https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sani...baja-al-acabar-el-confinamiento-total-7925013

Spain bids farewell to total confinement with fast-falling coronavirus
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?re...baja-al-acabar-el-confinamiento-total-7925013

[ Deserted roads

The Executive's objective of lowering the mobility of working days to the same level at which the holiday had been reduced has been achieved. An overall drop in car and van traffic of 85% was due and 83% was achieved last Monday. And on Thursday, almost 89%. Public transport has seen such ridiculous records as the 1,111 travellers who transported AVE trains last Thursday, in the midst of the 'no-exit operation' of Easter.

Citymapper's ranking of mobility placed Barcelona last Friday at the top of the world's most disciplined cities, with only 2% of the movement recorded on the same date last year. Madrid (3%) and Milan (3%), they followed him on the podium. Cities that have already passed the epidemic, such as Seoul (41%) or Hong Kong (38%) or who have decided not to fully confine, like Stockholm (25%), occupy the last places... ]

 

[raistlin65]

Here's one as well

Coughing in supermarket

I had seen that model. I've been using grocery store pickup services, and I don't want them loading the groceries in the back of my crossover for me, even though they do that for practically everyone else. A little breathing of coronavirus into the car from the grocery employee, and how am I not going to breathe it in? I guess I could ride with the windows down for the first few minutes on the way home.

Instead, I ask them to leave the card and I load it myself.

 

[Xulonn]

Of my many "internet friends" here at ASR, Thomas Savage, Doodski and possibly more would have a difficult time weathering the quarantine here in Panama... (Google translation of an article from "La Prensa" - Panama's biggest newspaper.)

 

[Soniclife]

Of my many "internet friends" here at ASR, Thomas Savage, Doodski and possibly more would have a difficult time weathering the quarantine here in Panama... (Google translation of an article from "La Prensa" - Panama's biggest newspaper.)

View attachment 58370

It's nice that they before they handcuffed them they let them have one last piss.

 

[Xulonn]

Panama's Ministry of Health (Ministerio de Salud or "Minsa") now has has an excellent interactive graphics page online to keep us informed. Below is a Windows graphic snip of it.

 

[Wes]

That looks like a specialized front end for the Johns Hopkins page

 

[Xulonn]

That looks like a specialized front end for the Johns Hopkins page

Very possible, because we have a Johns Hopkins affiliated hospital in our capital, Panama City.

Pacifica Salud is the first in Latin America and the Caribbean to be affiliated with Johns Hopkins Medicine International. Doctors, surgeons and other collaborators are leaders in their respective specialties, the facilities are world class and they provide medical solutions at affordable prices, compared to what a patient would receive in the United States or Europe.

 

[MediumRare]

This is an over-simplification. So-called "herd immunity" is just a common or lay term for the likelihood that the pathogen will become extinct within a given host popn. or (earlier) only infect immune members of the host popn. Worse, there are a number of "definitions" of it floating around. The best ones are a particular threshold proportion of immune individuals that should lead to a decline in incidence of infection or a pattern of immunity that should protect a population from invasion of a new infection.

A very simple model is that incidence will decline at a transition point given by 1 –1/Ro - or maybe better, Rt. A simple analogy is to the critical point at which a nuclear chain reaction becomes self sustaining. Pathogen growth is almost exactly that: a chain reaction in an Island Biology context ...

I dunno if that made much sense, as it isn't too close to the education of the EE popn. but suffice it to say that you can't just grab a %Vaccination rate for one disease and use it for another, not can you do the same thing for one country or culture and apply it to another.

Thanks, that's interesting info. So, if Ro = 5, 1 - 1/5 = 80%. And the estimates of Ro for Covid19 is...., around 5.7, so 82.5% as a rough guess. In any case, do you agree with the general point that the fast route to so-called Herd Immunity (short of a vaccine) would involve a dramatic increase in fatalities?

 

[MediumRare]

Illinois case rate growth holding pretty steady around 1,400 per day while mortality rate tops 3.5%. Worse, new deaths/new cases 6 days prior = 8%.

 

[MediumRare]

France has shockingly high morbidity (14.7%) but perhaps is because they are counting cases differently or deaths differently? NY has had a huge jump in residential deaths, but since they're not tested nor frequently not autopsied, they aren't included in the official morbidity rate (4.8%).

France:

 

[Xulonn]

This is a factual post devoid of politics, but if others wish, I will delete it. If anyone knows of how we can discuss these pandemic facts and problems without devolving into contentious political arguments, please post your ideas.

The light blue (I'm a little color-blind - looks blue to me) curve in the below graphic boggles my mind. It is not only a reality, but exceptional as all other nations appear to be approaching or experiencing a flattening of their respective curves. In fact, because of insufficient levels of testing, the US curve may be an underestimate! And yet tomorrow there may be a number of large gatherings of Christian worshippers in the US for Easter Sunday worship services. One can only hope and pray (and I am not religious) that those events don't make the situation worse.

(The below graph is hot-linked to its source - click on it to go there.)

 

[JohnYang1997]

This is a factual post devoid of politics, but if others wish, I will delete it. If anyone knows of how we can discuss these pandemic facts and problems without devolving into contentious political arguments, please post your ideas.

The light blue (I'm a little color-blind - looks blue to me) curve in the below graphic boggles my mind. It is not only a reality, but exceptional as all other nations appear to be approaching or experiencing a flattening of their respective curves. In fact, because of insufficient levels of testing, the US curve may be an underestimate! And yet tomorrow there may be a number of large gatherings of Christian worshippers in the US for Easter Sunday worship services. One can only hope and pray (and I am not religious) that those events don't make the situation worse.

Another thing that puzzles me is why the U.S. stock market (DJIA) continued to "recover" significantly all this past week based on an anticipated but irrational hope that "sooner rather than later" there will be a relaxation on social distancing and other pandemic-fighting restrictions. I sometimes think that we are not living in an age of reason.

(The below graph is hot-linked to its source - click on it to go there.)

View attachment 58377

The part about stock market is unnecessary. The graph is pretty good.