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Belief vs Science

Blumlein 88

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This is bad news good news kind of a thing. It means no more alcohol in our gasoline. Yeah! Why yeah!? Environmentally alcohol from corn in our gasoline is somewhere between break even or most likely a negative in terms of energy. So it worsens carbon emissions. So no more corn, no more corn based ethanol. It also is good news because ethanol in our gasoline is bad for our gasoline powered machinery.

Of course the bad news is well no more corn to eat. Even worse, no more corn to feed to cows so we have beef to eat.
 

Xulonn

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Even worse, no more corn to feed to cows so we have beef to eat.
There is always the other grass-fed beef...:p

Betsy-grass-fed-cattle-1.jpg
 
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Wombat

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In New Zealand the hillside-grazing sheep have legs which are shorter on one side. RHS for clockwise movers, LHS for counter-clockwise ones.
 

Xulonn

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In American folklore, a Sidehill gouger is a fearsome critter adapted to living on hillsides by having legs on one side of their body shorter than the legs on the opposite side. This peculiarity allows them to walk on steep hillsides, although only in one direction; when lured or chased into the plain, they are trapped in an endless circular path.

Gougers are said to have migrated to the west from New England, a feat accomplished by a pair of gougers who clung to each other in a fashion comparable to "a pair of drunks going home from town with their longer legs on the outer sides.


A Vermont variation is known as the Wampahoofus. It was reported that farmers crossbreed them with their cows so they could graze easily on mountain sides.
 

kevinh

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And we have tons of observations on the subject of evolution, which is backed by countless experiments covering endless permutations of hypotheses.

If we take your argument to the extreme, you would have to faithfully recreate the entire origin of life and species 100%, while making detailed observations of every minute detail, to be able to prove evolution happened and the exact moment life arose.

Science doesn't work that way, and you know it.


Not really, the premise is that random mutations of DNA drives all evolution. That is where the probabilities get involved. The links provided in this thread cite studies that show relatively rapid evolution. This would seem to contradict the random mutation theory. It is accepted that most mutations are deadly to the organism, many 'failed' mutations for a single 'good' mutation. Not really 'settled' science given the vast uncertainties involved.

It does raise my skeptics antenna when I see such fundamental issues glossed over and people who ask questions treated like heritics beofree the inquisition in the middle ages.

Having said that I am not really sure why Evolutionary Theory is being taught to school children, much less and unquestionable fact. If would be nice if children could learn to actually read, write and do mathematics and learn basic science as opposed to Evolutionary Biology perhaps some understanding of how animals systems function, plants ect.
 

kevinh

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Indeed, and I happen to do research on natural climate change so I am very aware of this. However, that is irrelevant for the current debate on man made climate change. The reason is simple: humans can also change climate, and it is awfully obvious that we have done so.
As it so happens I live in a country that is largely below sea level. Fortunately, it is also the country with the world's best engineering to build dikes etc. and a country that is rich enough to do so. The Netherlands has already commissioned large research projects to decide how to maintain our 1:10,000 year risk model in the new circumstances. However, much of the world does not have the expertise, the political will, and the money to cope, unfortunately.



It may be very possible that Humans have saved organic life on this planet by replenishing the supply of CO2 in the atmosphere. Inadvertently of course but non the less we see that ~160M years ago CO2 levels. The levels used to be >1,500pm and had decreased in a rather linear way to as low as 180pm during the last ice age. If that process had continued for another 400,000 to 500,00 years levels would have reached the 150ppm level at which point Photosynthesis stops and with that the planet would die.

BTW the mechanism by which a trace gas was supposed to heat the planet was through a feedback effect that would manifest itself by causing heating in the lower troposphere, that heating hasn't been observed, hence a s per Feynman the theory is wrong. I won't even get into the poor quality of Global Data sets over the past 300 years, or the modification by NOAA of the US data set top try to support the narrative of CO2 as pollution. Of course particulate Carbon emissions are bad for living things and should always be avoided IOW scrubbers for power plants and other industrial activities.
 
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Wombat

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Not really, the premise is that random mutations of DNA drives all evolution. That is where the probabilities get involved. The links provided in this thread cite studies that show relatively rapid evolution. This would seem to contradict the random mutation theory. It is accepted that most mutations are deadly to the organism, many 'failed' mutations for a single 'good' mutation. Not really 'settled' science given the vast uncertainties involved.

It does raise my skeptics antenna when I see such fundamental issues glossed over and people who ask questions treated like heritics beofree the inquisition in the middle ages.

Having said that I am not really sure why Evolutionary Theory is being taught to school children, much less and unquestionable fact. If would be nice if children could learn to actually read, write and do mathematics and learn basic science as opposed to Evolutionary Biology perhaps some understanding of how animals systems function, plants ect.

Evolution Myths

Do you include Evolutionary Bibleology in your restriction on teaching children?
 

Putter

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Not really, the premise is that random mutations of DNA drives all evolution. That is where the probabilities get involved. The links provided in this thread cite studies that show relatively rapid evolution. This would seem to contradict the random mutation theory. It is accepted that most mutations are deadly to the organism, many 'failed' mutations for a single 'good' mutation. Not really 'settled' science given the vast uncertainties involved.

It does raise my skeptics antenna when I see such fundamental issues glossed over and people who ask questions treated like heritics beofree the inquisition in the middle ages.

Having said that I am not really sure why Evolutionary Theory is being taught to school children, much less and unquestionable fact. If would be nice if children could learn to actually read, write and do mathematics and learn basic science as opposed to Evolutionary Biology perhaps some understanding of how animals systems function, plants ect.



It may be very possible that Humans have saved organic life on this planet by replenishing the supply of CO2 in the atmosphere. Inadvertently of course but non the less we see that ~160M years ago CO2 levels. The levels used to be >1,500pm and had decreased in a rather linear way to as low as 180pm during the last ice age. If that process had continued for another 400,000 to 500,00 years levels would have reached the 150ppm level at which point Photosynthesis stops and with that the planet would die.

BTW the mechanism by which a trace gas was supposed to heat the planet was through a feedback effect that would manifest itself by causing heating in the lower troposphere, that heating hasn't been observed, hence a s per Feynman the theory is wrong. I won't even get into the poor quality of Global Data sets over the past 300 years, or the modification by NOAA of the US data set top try to support the narrative of CO2 as pollution. Of course particulate Carbon emissions are bad for living things and should always be avoided IOW scrubbers for power plants and other industrial activities.

While this is supposed to be an audio site, I'll give some responses. NOT all mutations are instantly fatal or we would have no blond haired, red haired, etc. let alone different races and that's just for a start. Our genetic code is if anything, a data bank of random mutations. The reason Evolutionary Biology is taught is because it is the best explanation that is congruent with both biological and geological data out there. It's biggest problem is that it minimizes the role of religion (i.e. God) in the start of life. And notwithstanding your opinion evolution is basic science. It is integral to the science of Biology.

As for human effects on CO2 levels were about 280 ppm (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GB004247) from 100 years ago to the start of the industrial revolution not 160 ppm. There weren't enough of us then to have a significant effect on CO2 levels. BTW if you're going to post 'facts' you need to reference them. This is what scientists do, as opposed to armchair philosophers.
 
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Wombat

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It may be very possible that Humans have saved organic life on this planet by replenishing the supply of CO2 in the atmosphere. Inadvertently of course but non the less we see that ~160M years ago CO2 levels. The levels used to be >1,500pm and had decreased in a rather linear way to as low as 180pm during the last ice age. If that process had continued for another 400,000 to 500,00 years levels would have reached the 150ppm level at which point Photosynthesis stops and with that the planet would die.

BTW the mechanism by which a trace gas was supposed to heat the planet was through a feedback effect that would manifest itself by causing heating in the lower troposphere, that heating hasn't been observed, hence a s per Feynman the theory is wrong. I won't even get into the poor quality of Global Data sets over the past 300 years, or the modification by NOAA of the US data set top try to support the narrative of CO2 as pollution. Of course particulate Carbon emissions are bad for living things and should always be avoided IOW scrubbers for power plants and other industrial activities.


To save some typing. In brief:

73395391_10219980615123684_3368145007432171520_n.jpg
 
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Wombat

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It would be interesting to know if 'beliefs', pervasive or otherwise, influence biological evolution.
Nerd.png


We do know that they can be infectious and virulent in cultures of social identity, ignorance, conformism, denial, self-interest, etc.

You know, just as in audio navel gazing. o_O
 
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digicidal

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I think the biggest question I have - whether it pertains to climate change or for that matter religion - is why there are so few (relative to the total number of 'committed participants') who are more invested in the profit-potential or political capital side than the actual problem/benefit.

As someone from a very (I mean very) religious upbringing, that was always the biggest question I always had for whatever evangelist, church, etc. my parents were rabidly funding: "If it's the only way of saving the world, and it was freely given in the first place - then why does it seem like everyone is always demanding money to have access to it?"

Although I never had a chance to pose the same question to Al Gore... it definitely came to mind as a rather "inconvenient truth" when hearing him speak in the past. ;)

Of course, there are exceptions - people who have personally sacrificed a great number of conveniences in order to do their part in reducing waste, pollution, non-renewable energy dependence, etc... but there are many notable and very public faces of our environmental crisis that fly from place to place, maintaining multiple homes and vehicles... all to tell middle and lower class people what they need to stop doing or buy in order to fix things.

Just like there are Christians who are going out to the streets and giving food and comfort to homeless people or visiting dying old people in care facilities... much of the time just listening to them without preaching or condemning. It's just that no one actually sees those people, because they don't care about acknowledgement - instead what we see are a bunch of scammers on TV taking the last dollars of the poorest and least intellectually capable citizens in exchange for empty promises of healing or financial windfalls. :mad:

It's human nature so not likely to change... but regardless of the subject - we could all do with a lot more "living the example" and a lot less "preaching from the pulpit". Of course, I'm guilty of the same in many cases - although I don't charge anyone for my horseshit advice or opinions... so there's that. :p
 

JJB70

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Personally I tend to the live and let live approach to life.
This is bad news good news kind of a thing. It means no more alcohol in our gasoline. Yeah! Why yeah!? Environmentally alcohol from corn in our gasoline is somewhere between break even or most likely a negative in terms of energy. So it worsens carbon emissions. So no more corn, no more corn based ethanol. It also is good news because ethanol in our gasoline is bad for our gasoline powered machinery.

Of course the bad news is well no more corn to eat. Even worse, no more corn to feed to cows so we have beef to eat.

This actually illustrates a good point, that in considering measures to combat climate change we need to consider whether or not they would be beneficial and look beyond carbon. That is so obvious that some policy makers, encouraged by highly simplistic advocacy, seem to ignore it. Some of the requirements for biofuels and incentives have created perverse incentives and been rather damaging. And certain green NGOs who scream about listening to scientists can be wilfully deaf when it comes to listening to scientists and engineers who point out the holes in their own pet ideas.
 

Tks

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Not really, the premise is that random mutations of DNA drives all evolution. That is where the probabilities get involved. The links provided in this thread cite studies that show relatively rapid evolution. This would seem to contradict the random mutation theory. It is accepted that most mutations are deadly to the organism, many 'failed' mutations for a single 'good' mutation. Not really 'settled' science given the vast uncertainties involved.

It does raise my skeptics antenna when I see such fundamental issues glossed over and people who ask questions treated like heritics beofree the inquisition in the middle ages.

Having said that I am not really sure why Evolutionary Theory is being taught to school children, much less and unquestionable fact. If would be nice if children could learn to actually read, write and do mathematics and learn basic science as opposed to Evolutionary Biology perhaps some understanding of how animals systems function, plants ect.


Your first sentence is a strawman of the theory of evolution. Random mutations aren't solely the "premise" that "drives all evolution". Evolution isn't a brute force drive or some material force acting upon reality, it's an observation of what is occurring.

Likewise in your ending paragraph you talk about children should be learning how to read, write, math, and "basic science" as opposed to "Evolutionary Biology". Well those prior things were involved in the codificaiton of evolution as a field of study. No one is "learning evolutionary biology" without "basic science, math, and literacy" as you exclaim.
 
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Wombat

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Personally I tend to the live and let live approach to life.


This actually illustrates a good point, that in considering measures to combat climate change we need to consider whether or not they would be beneficial and look beyond carbon. That is so obvious that some policy makers, encouraged by highly simplistic advocacy, seem to ignore it. Some of the requirements for biofuels and incentives have created perverse incentives and been rather damaging. And certain green NGOs who scream about listening to scientists can be wilfully deaf when it comes to listening to scientists and engineers who point out the holes in their own pet ideas.

The scientific skeptics are so few in number compared to mainstream climate scientists that only immense entrenched vested interest support raises their voice above a squeak. These vested interests are also quietly but significantly investing in low emission technologies. They see the writing on the wall but wish squeeze as much out of their traditional investments as they can.

I doubt that anyone on this forum is on-top of the vast amount of scientific publications on this topic, let alone able to analyse it and reach a rational conclusion.
If one doesn't accept the broad scientific consensus on the subject, where is the broad definitive scientific disagreement. There is lots of funding waiting for contrarian scientists and not many takers.

Denial is comforting until reality can no longer be denied. It is often then too late or much more difficult to remedy. This applies in many areas of human consequence.

If the majority of medical science confirmed a diagnosis of cancer I wouldn't go to the natural healing espousers. Some do of course. Wishful thinkers.
 
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JJB70

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The scientific skeptics are so few in number compared to mainstream climate scientists that only immense vested interest support raises their voice above a squeak.

I doubt that anyone on this forum is on-top of the vast amount of scientific publications on this topic, let alone able to analyse it and reach a rational conclusion,
If one doesn't accept the broad scientific consensus on the subject, where is the broad definitive scientific disagreement. There is lots of funding waiting for contrarian scientists and not many takers.

Denial is comforting until reality can no longer be denied. It is often then too late or much more difficult to remedy. This applies in many areas of human consequence.

If the majority of medical science confirmed a diagnosis of cancer I wouldn't go to the natural healing espousers. Some do of course. Wishful thinkers.

I am not denying climate change, I am saying that there are some questionable responses to it and that listening to those who understand the merit or otherwise of these potential responses is just as important as listening to climate scientists.
 

Killingbeans

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KozmoNaut

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Of course, there are exceptions - people who have personally sacrificed a great number of conveniences in order to do their part in reducing waste, pollution, non-renewable energy dependence, etc... but there are many notable and very public faces of our environmental crisis that fly from place to place, maintaining multiple homes and vehicles... all to tell middle and lower class people what they need to stop doing or buy in order to fix things.

That's the thing. While personal efforts are viable and objectively good, the real major change has to be political and societal. Reducing personal consumption and reusing/recycling as much of that limited consumption as possible is absolutely something we should do, the simple fact is that the greatest threat to the climate comes from the fossil fuels industry, and we can't hope to change that on a personal level.

Even if you can refrain from driving, and even if you can reduce your power consumption as much as possible, the major polluters are industry, production and shipping, and the solutions need to come from political action.

Unfortunately, the majority of politicians are more concerned about staying in power and kowtowing to those with disproportionate wealth, not ordinary people.
 

Tks

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I think the biggest question I have - whether it pertains to climate change or for that matter religion - is why there are so few (relative to the total number of 'committed participants') who are more invested in the profit-potential or political capital side than the actual problem/benefit.

As someone from a very (I mean very) religious upbringing, that was always the biggest question I always had for whatever evangelist, church, etc. my parents were rabidly funding: "If it's the only way of saving the world, and it was freely given in the first place - then why does it seem like everyone is always demanding money to have access to it?"

Although I never had a chance to pose the same question to Al Gore... it definitely came to mind as a rather "inconvenient truth" when hearing him speak in the past. ;)

Of course, there are exceptions - people who have personally sacrificed a great number of conveniences in order to do their part in reducing waste, pollution, non-renewable energy dependence, etc... but there are many notable and very public faces of our environmental crisis that fly from place to place, maintaining multiple homes and vehicles... all to tell middle and lower class people what they need to stop doing or buy in order to fix things.

Just like there are Christians who are going out to the streets and giving food and comfort to homeless people or visiting dying old people in care facilities... much of the time just listening to them without preaching or condemning. It's just that no one actually sees those people, because they don't care about acknowledgement - instead what we see are a bunch of scammers on TV taking the last dollars of the poorest and least intellectually capable citizens in exchange for empty promises of healing or financial windfalls. :mad:

It's human nature so not likely to change... but regardless of the subject - we could all do with a lot more "living the example" and a lot less "preaching from the pulpit". Of course, I'm guilty of the same in many cases - although I don't charge anyone for my horseshit advice or opinions... so there's that. :p



That biggest question portion was simply your sanity kicking in and your nose for smelling horseshit about to present itself.



As for the whole "why are so few invested in earning potential" (That's simple, there's just almost no money to be had in solving of problems of this kind compared to the creation of problems you've already invested in creating solutions for). The only reason there are any attempts at solving the global warming issue, is because there are people genuinely convinced (people in government or the people that voted them in) that foster some level of growth in this sector with tax breaks because they truly believe there are real existential threats awaiting us in a few generations. With the current globalized libertarian economic model that basically functions in the majority of nations, when something doesn't generate profit, it simply does not get done from a business sense. There simply is no economic headroom for multiple solar panel companies, or wind turbine companies and such. The math simply doesn't add up. Especially with the sort of consolidation possible under legal frameworks for multinational conglomerates to exist, this sort of archaic idea that competition will be spurring some massive innovations is ludicrous. At the level of these Too Big To Fail companies are now, you basically can look at the example of Intel. Hibernates on any real progress because they own the majority of the market, and basically use the legal system to hopefully starve out competition.. not actually foster competition.. (Anyone that believe contrary is crazy. Why would any company welcome competition if they have the ability to starve it? I can keep listing companies that act this way, all the way since the Railroad companies and their legendary monopoly, to Amazon etc..).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for the whole Al Gore bit, I was a bit confused. Were you wondering why seemingly rich folk talk about telling what everyone else should do (like going green and living more humbly or something to that effect?). If that's the case, then it's simple. He's not going to throw away his riches, nor can he be expected to live a lifestyle he's never lived, and do it over night. In the same way you and I can agree on global warming, we're not exactly going to sell our phones and live an agrarian lifestyle in the middle of some woods, and practice "zero waste" methods.


Now Al Gore's problem is literally physics (instead of philosophical, unless his whole goal was just to spread awareness, and not iron clad facts on how to proceed), he advocates for things that will barely matter (all forms of "green energy" pale in complete comparison to the net return on energy for a basic economy). Nothing comes remotely close to they caloric density of fossil fuels. In America, in a study I last seen a while back when they calculated the sort of energy sector economy that would be required to sustain "green" energy, it was basically something to the tune of half the American population. In our current economic paradigm, it's simply not feasible for any country to have something like half of it's population workforce so heavily employed within the Energy Industry. The only replacement to current energy demands (unless you want to genocide a sizable portion of the population), is nuclear energy(actually much greater than even fossil fuels). It's basically folly to expect we can "go green" and still have any semblance of the current society we have today, we've seemingly missed the boat on avoiding a bad situation either way you look. All we're doing now is making a decision on just how bad we're going to allow things to get. All energy ventures have already come to these conclusions with mathematically verified reality. You might be tempted to ask "well if nuclear is so good, why don't companies chase that". Because privatized nuclear has many-fold problems that instantly come to mind when thinking about "Nuclear" and "Privately-owned".

1) With current standards, the timeframe to get a nuclear plant operational and merged onto the grid from scratch, is a decade give or take depending on pre-discovery efforts and surveying of suitable locations. (And then awaits you all the regulatory things that need to be tested for extensively, and maintained.

2) MASSIVE long term investment sink that could go belly-up at any moment with most political terms being 4 years that can throw things into haywire where you then have a black hole for funds.

3) Horrible PR. Simply almost impossible in the climate post-Fukushima to sell anyone on the idea of nuclear, especially anyone that isn't combing through studies about how those sorts of catastrophe's wouldn't be possible today.

4) Energy surplus that destroys the rest of the economic energy sector. Basically, energy ceases to be much of a problem, and if headway into viable fusion efforts ever come to fruition, we're basically set for a while for our energy needs. And if the plant is nationalized or government made and owned, there is no room to sell energy to anyone anymore with artificial scarcity (like limiting the barrels of oil production rate and other such annoying and society damaging tactics of the financial markets).

It's like digital audio in the present day. In terms of audibility, we're finished in terms of DACs for example. And is why the only viable way to compete is either insanely low prices, or insanely high value with secondary features. Except in nuclear, there is no "secondary features" to sell to anyone, no means of manipulation (conman will prove me wrong on this one of course), no source to exploit (like a country being "blessed" with natural supplies of oil by chance).

Or like the industrial revolution, where for the first time in history we have the capability of serving the needs of every person on the planet (if honestly applied). Not only that, but we have surplus for the first time, so much so, that economic activity would come to a standstill. When this was realized, that's when conceptualization of things like intrinsic and planned obsolescence started(intrinsic, by using inherently flawed and inadequate materials - planned, but giving a targeted life span to products that are made to fail on purpose after the elapsed time). This is what I mean't about "more profit in the creation of problems, rather than solving them". Most people aren't aware that world hunger is an absolutely artifical, and completely solvable issue with respect to resources. The only problem is: that present day libertarian economic model that has ravaged like a wildfire anywhere it reaches.
 
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