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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

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Putter

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This is from Vox but it does reference a couple of studies
https://www.vox.com/21296067/corona...uperspreaders-superspreading-bars-restaurants
Only one of the 22 cluster location types the team analyzed in a preliminary study was an outdoor setting (building sites in Singapore; four clusters were linked to these sites, causing a total of 95 infections acquired directly from the sites).

These findings line up with other preliminary research that calculated closed environments to be almost 20 times more likely to spur additional coronavirus infections than open-air ones.


This may explain why the Black Lives Matter Rallies haven't been superspreader events (at least so far). They have been outdoors and at least some of the participants wore masks and tried to socially distance.

This at least is our experience in NYS where infections have continued to go down while having large rallies in all the major cities and this appears to be true in Connecticut, Minnesota (where it all started), and other "Blue states" where I would expect more protests and more mask wearing and social distancing than 'red states'.

On the other hand the President's indoor rally in Tulsa seems to have all the hallmarks associated with at least a potential superspreader event. They say they will check for fever which won't catch all cases and may be difficult to do for people coming in from outside with temperatures in the high 80's, likely crowded together to get into the venue. Masks will be distributed and one can hope the attendees will wear them notwithstanding the President's disdain to wearing one himself.

My analysis may sound political, but I think I'm being objective about what appears to at best, an inadvisable event. I also think that if it does significantly spread coronavirus and particularly if there are deaths as a result, the media will be all over it like a cheap suit.

Finally in what might well be considered political NY Governor Andrew just gave his last daily Coronavirus briefing. As he pointed out NY and NYC in particular have gone from the highest number of cases and rates of transmission to one of the lowest numbers of cases and rates of transmission.

All it took was buy in from the citizens to wear masks, socially distance and accept that these and other steps were necessary to control the virus. The guy is a control freak, but that might well be what's needed for this pandemic.
 

Ron Texas

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My analysis may sound political, but I think I'm being objective about what appears to at best, an inadvisable event. I also think that if it does significantly spread coronavirus and particularly if there are deaths as a result, the media will be all over it like a cheap suit.

Your post reeks of politics. We are seeing infections from BLM demonstrations in Houston.
 

maty

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Ivermectina y COVID-19: cómo una base de datos dudosa dio forma a la respuesta de varios países latinoamericanos a la pandemia
[Spanish] https://www.isglobal.org/healthisgl...of-several-latin-american-countries/2877257/0

Ivermectin and COVID-19: how a dubious database shaped the response of various Latin American countries to the pandemic
https://translate.google.es/transla...of-several-latin-american-countries/2877257/0


Un grupo evangélico peruano inyecta un medicamento [Ivermectina] veterinario a miles de personas para la covid-19
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-06...icamento-veterinario-a-miles-de-personas.html

A Peruvian evangelical group injects a veterinary [ivermectin] drug into thousands of people for covid-19
https://translate.google.es/transla...icamento-veterinario-a-miles-de-personas.html


Ivermectin
https://medlineplus.gov/druginfo/meds/a607069.html
 

maty

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https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...lative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=cases

covid-19-cases-million-Sudamerica-19062020.png


BTW, I can see the US graph is going up.

PS: In Germany there have been strong outbreaks these days but the chart continues its downward path, so ... someone is falsifying the data or counting the positives in a very different way than other countries, in breach of the WHO standard, I say.

...However, some of the errors made were caused by lack of understanding of basic statistics. Should every broadcaster run a course for its journalists in statistics? I think so. In my career, I have often been astounded by basic errors made in reporting something as obvious as percentages in a survey. As one of the experts I consulted said, you don’t need a degree in statistics, ’You need a critical mind.’ ]
 
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maty

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Why Weren't We Wearing Masks From the Beginning? Dr. Fauci Explains
https://www.thestreet.com/video/dr-fauci-masks-changing-directive-coronavirus

[ "Masks are not 100% protective. However, they certainly are better than not wearing a mask. Both to prevent you, if you happen to be a person who may feel well, but has an asymptomatic infection that you don't even know about, to prevent you from infecting someone else," said Fauci. "But also, it can protect you a certain degree, not a hundred percent, in protecting you from getting infected from someone who, either is breathing, or coughing, or sneezing, or singing or whatever it is in which the droplets or the aerosols go out. So masks work.".. ]

[ So, why weren't we told to wear masks in the beginning?

"Well, the reason for that is that we were concerned the public health community, and many people were saying this, were concerned that it was at a time when personal protective equipment, including the N95 masks and the surgical masks, were in very short supply. And we wanted to make sure that the people namely, the health care workers, who were brave enough to put themselves in a harm way, to take care of people who you know were infected with the coronavirus and the danger of them getting infected." ]

As in Spain, treating citizens as if they were small children, lying to them for their own good. What credibility will the next recommendations or information have?
 

Putter

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Your post reeks of politics. We are seeing infections from BLM demonstrations in Houston.

You may be correct. I didn't say that there was no transmission, just less. However it's complicated by the fact that "Gov. Greg Abbott said allowed his stay-at-home order to lapse on April 30, a move that gave Texas, the nation’s second-largest state, one of the shortest such orders in the country."

Reopened

Outdoor and recreation, State parks; Pools; Gyms; Natural caverns; Water parks; Zoos,
Retail, Retail stores, malls,
Food and drink Restaurant dining; Bars
Entertainment Movie theaters, museums, libraries; Bowling alleys, bingo halls, skating rinks, rodeos; Aquariums
Personal care Salons, barbershops, etc.; Massage and personal care
Industries Offices, manufacturing

Reopening soon Entertainment Amusement parks; Carnivals

There were some restrictions on capacities, but the spike in cases began on May 27 around the time of the George Floyd murder. However it takes 5-6 days on average for symptoms to appear. The fact that Texas opened up so quickly while cases holding steady is the opposite of what was done in New York State where it was almost too slow.

My main point was in many places we haven't seen a resurgence and spiking of cases and the outdoor vs. indoor and at least some mask wearing and social distancing seem to play a role.

As for politics, I've read is "allocation of scarce resources", I can't think of a more scarce resource than life itself.
 

Ron Texas

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From today businesses in Harris county must require customers and employees to wear masks. The order does not apply directly to individuals, only to businesses.
 

Ron Texas

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@Putter your point is blue is good, red is bad. Cases are rising in California which stayed shut down longer than Texas, but that does not register in your hypothesis. Please spare us from your thinly disguised politics. You can't fool me even if you manage to fool people who share your beliefs.
 

Putter

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@Putter your point is blue is good, red is bad. Cases are rising in California which stayed shut down longer than Texas, but that does not register in your hypothesis. Please spare us from your thinly disguised politics. You can't fool me even if you manage to fool people who share your beliefs.


My politics as you put it was that more red states opened up quicker and put less emphasis on mask wearing and social distancing. I'm mostly trying to determine why there hasn't been a major spike in many places that had large demonstrations. Yes, I'm a registered Democrat, but mostly I believe listening to the epidemiologists. I also thought you had promised to put me on the ignore list.


I said the rally in Tulsa was a potential superspreader event.

Here are some others that were.

Spring Break in Florida where people come all over the US onto crowded beaches and then go back home. Yes that's outdoors, but I'm sure many of them then crowded into bars and restaurants all courtesy of a governor saw no reason to restrict it.

Maty can help me on this one. There was a major Soccer game in Spain between an Italian Team and a Spanish Team. There were crowds in the streets, restaurants and bars. This went on for a week if I recall the articles. It is thought that this was a major contributor to the severity of the outbreak in both those countries.

When the pandemic was peaking in NYC the 1% or 10% or at least those well off enough leave did so. I can't quite find the article, but NY Times tracked large number of travellers to other large American cities such as Los Angeles, Dallas, Huston, Chicago and Detroit.

I'm done. Based on the lack of interest in these posts, both mine and yours I would say there is no information 'you need to know' except that masks and social distancing are useful strategies for avoiding corona virus which is not a mystery.
 

maty

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Coronavirus cases are increasing at Texas child care centers, but the state repealed safety rules
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/0...se-texas-day-cares-state-safety-rules-expire/

[ In mid-May, 36 employees and 23 children in 53 centers had reportedly been infected, according to a state tally. As of this Tuesday, 167 employees and 75 children at 203 centers had been infected. And Thursday the numbers rose further to 226 employees and 113 children in 270 centers... ]
 

Veri

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As in Spain, treating citizens as if they were small children, lying to them for their own good. What credibility will the next recommendations or information have?
It is a political decision. Health care workers needed masks, so they decide to NOT recommend every single citizen to stock up. It's ironic that other, Eastern European countries recommended masks from the start and if they couldn't get one recommended to make them yourself; they handled the epidemic with very few casualties!!
 

maty

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We are supposed to live in countries with democratic functioning, separation of powers, where citizens are treated like adults.

The Czech Republic imposed the mask from the beginning. Since there were not enough at the time, they repeatedly explained how to make them at home. Being of less protection, if everyone uses it they are effective.

When the authorities look the other way, without imposing heavy fines a few days after their imposition, a few do not use them and many others do it poorly.

In the hospitality services [Spain] almost nobody uses them except the waiters. Customers walk in without a mask and now they even stand in the bar counter like this. Nothing happens because the police do not act, I suppose because there are orders to look the other way, that the economy matters more at the moment. They do not use them even when queuing on the most popular terraces, waiting to get a table. Of course, speaking and without respecting the distance. If there are people, there is noise, then they speak louder and the risk increases, they do not care.

Only its use in public transport and shops is respected. Still many are showing the nose.
 

maty

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Where U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-TRENDS/dgkvlgkrkpb/

A lot of graphs

[ New cases of COVID-19 nearly doubled in Alabama and South Carolina in the second week of June compared to the prior seven days, a Reuters analysis found, as 17 U.S. states reported weekly increases in the spread of the novel coronavirus...

When asked to comment on the increases, South Carolina and Alabama health officials said some residents were not following recommendations to maintain social distance, avoid large gatherings and wear a mask in public... ]

covid-19-US-daily-cases-19062020.png


covid-19-US-states-daily-cases-19062020.png
 

RayDunzl

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When asked to comment on the increases, South Carolina and Alabama health officials said some residents were not following recommendations

You could make a long long list of other recommendations in all areas of life that members of the public choose to ignore.

I'm even guilty myself, to some extent. Aren't we all?
 

RayDunzl

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Tulsa

1592639256216.png
 

maty

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You could make a long long list of other recommendations in all areas of life that members of the public choose to ignore.

I'm even guilty myself, to some extent. Aren't we all?

Some of us are not guilty because we have acted well in advance, informing us well. Because of the mass, I did not tell almost anyone because I knew that they would think I was an alarmist despite all the information I already had at the time and that prompted me to act.

Like more Germans in March, I also kept quite a bit of cash at home, as I had to do years ago.
[Spanish] https://nauscopio.wordpress.com/201...ras-por-paises-alemania-x-francia-u-espana-v/

PS: In January 2006, a very few of us began to inform the Spanish network of the serious economic crisis that was looming in Spain. Of course, we do not anticipate the world crisis.
 
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