We had an anti racism demonstration in Amsterdam that turned out much larger (i.e. perhaps 10k people) than the expected few hundred. As a result social distancing was impossible. I was very sympathetic to the cause but worried about the risk of infections and thought people were madly irresponsible. We can now conclude that that concern was unjustified as the demonstration did not lead to infections. It seems one more indication that the risk outdoors is very limited, unlike indoors.
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[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]
- Thread starter andymok
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maty
Major Contributor
Dos empresas española en Marruecos registran el mayor foco de coronavirus en el país, con 560 contagios
[Spanish] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2020/06/20/5eedbc1121efa015228b45ee.html
Two Spanish companies in Morocco register the largest focus of coronavirus in the country, with 560 infections
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2020/06/20/5eedbc1121efa015228b45ee.html
[ The most serious focus of coronavirus appeared in Morocco is concentrated in two Spanish companies for the treatment of strawberries and other fruits, both located in a rich agricultural region located between Larache and Rabat .
The Moroccan Ministry of the Interior confirmed tonight that, according to their data, only in the plant of the Sevillian company Frigodar 457 positive cases have appeared, while in the plant of Navarra Natberry they amount to 103.
The situation is so serious that the ministry has completely closed the accesses to various villages and towns in the fruit region where Frigodar and Natberry operate, except in cases of extreme necessity, and this precisely on the day when the passage of the largest was announced. part of the country to deconfinition measures... ]
[ The news of the coronavirus outbreak in this fruit region occurs precisely on the day that the measures of unconfinement and relaxation of the restrictions were announced throughout Morocco, and which have had as notable exceptions the North Atlantic regions: Tangier, Larache and Kenitra, in addition to Marrakech.
The coronavirus pandemic has progressed slowly in Morocco, and to date 9,613 cases and 213 deaths have been recorded, but never before have 500 new cases been exceeded in a single day. ]
Days ago I commented that the last boat [patera] with illegal inmigrants that arrived in the Canary Islands had 14 positives. The previous average was one or two. Well that, as if to believe the data provided by African countries.
[Spanish] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2020/06/20/5eedbc1121efa015228b45ee.html
Two Spanish companies in Morocco register the largest focus of coronavirus in the country, with 560 infections
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2020/06/20/5eedbc1121efa015228b45ee.html
[ The most serious focus of coronavirus appeared in Morocco is concentrated in two Spanish companies for the treatment of strawberries and other fruits, both located in a rich agricultural region located between Larache and Rabat .
The Moroccan Ministry of the Interior confirmed tonight that, according to their data, only in the plant of the Sevillian company Frigodar 457 positive cases have appeared, while in the plant of Navarra Natberry they amount to 103.
The situation is so serious that the ministry has completely closed the accesses to various villages and towns in the fruit region where Frigodar and Natberry operate, except in cases of extreme necessity, and this precisely on the day when the passage of the largest was announced. part of the country to deconfinition measures... ]
[ The news of the coronavirus outbreak in this fruit region occurs precisely on the day that the measures of unconfinement and relaxation of the restrictions were announced throughout Morocco, and which have had as notable exceptions the North Atlantic regions: Tangier, Larache and Kenitra, in addition to Marrakech.
The coronavirus pandemic has progressed slowly in Morocco, and to date 9,613 cases and 213 deaths have been recorded, but never before have 500 new cases been exceeded in a single day. ]
Days ago I commented that the last boat [patera] with illegal inmigrants that arrived in the Canary Islands had 14 positives. The previous average was one or two. Well that, as if to believe the data provided by African countries.
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maty
Major Contributor
The risk outside is 1/19 versus inside.
In the new apps, which will work with bluetooth, a register will be generated if one has been close to a person for at least two minutes and less than two meters. If the person is infected -> private alert.
In the new apps, which will work with bluetooth, a register will be generated if one has been close to a person for at least two minutes and less than two meters. If the person is infected -> private alert.
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maty
Major Contributor
[ Wearing the mask on your elbow on the street prevents coronavirus because people see that you are an asshole and turn away from you. ]
maty
Major Contributor
[ "Neither a defensive denial of events in plain sight nor the blame game will help. What matters now is how we might do things differently to protect care home residents if we have a second surge or a new pandemic" ]
-> David Oliver: Let’s be open and honest about covid-19 deaths in care homes
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2334
[ From the first recorded UK case to June 5, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported 17,422 deaths of care home residents from covid-19 in England and Wales—47% of the total.1
England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, was insisting in the media that only around 30% of deaths in England were in care homes, saying that it was lower than the European average, by using Department of Health and Social Care data based only on people who had tested positive for covid-19 (when tests were in short supply) rather than on death certification—an approach used by ministers throughout the pandemic... ]
[ “Abandoning” residents
The mainstream media narrative around covid-19 care home deaths became one of cruel bureaucrats, politicians, and managers callously abandoning care home residents to preventable deaths, knowingly sacrificing residents to “protect” acute hospital beds. Allegedly, hospitals had deliberately sent residents back to care homes with no covid-19 tests or even after positive ones.8 New data analysis suggests that discharges from hospitals back to care homes increased year on year during a critical period in March,9 despite claims from the government and NHS Providers that discharge numbers from hospital to care homes had been much lower in March and April than in previous years.10 11
Before any instruction from NHS England, emergency legislation, or government cash injections,12 acute hospitals around the country were busy implementing escalation plans to prevent hospitals from being swamped. Part of this was a focus on more ambulatory emergency care, prompt transfer of inpatients back home (or to care homes or community hospitals), and close collaboration with community health services to enhance support and speed... ]
maty
Major Contributor
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-06...virus-en-espana-y-en-el-mundo-en-directo.html
[ Data Germany. The increase in new coronavirus positives in Germany continues above half a thousand daily, due to outbreaks in the meat industry and residential blocks in Berlin and Göttingen. In the last 24 hours, the Robert Koch Institute, the country's epidemiological reference center, has recorded 601 new infections, bringing the total number since the start of the epidemic to 189,135. The death toll stands at 8,883 in Germany; 11 of those deaths occurred since yesterday and raise the death rate to 4.7%.
The number of people who have overcome the disease amounts to 173,700 and of them, 300 have been cured since yesterday. The virus's reproduction rate, which measures the average number of infections per person, stood at 1.06 last night, above the threshold considered critical by health and political authorities.
The results of diagnostic tests carried out at the infected slaughterhouse and packaging plants for pig meat in North Rhine-Westphalia indicate that there are already 803 infections among employees. Up to 7,000 people are in quarantine in the area, reports Ana Carbajosa. ]
FT has not yet updated the graphs. If the graph for Germany continues to drop today too ... I will look elsewhere to compare just in case it was a FT problem
[ Data Germany. The increase in new coronavirus positives in Germany continues above half a thousand daily, due to outbreaks in the meat industry and residential blocks in Berlin and Göttingen. In the last 24 hours, the Robert Koch Institute, the country's epidemiological reference center, has recorded 601 new infections, bringing the total number since the start of the epidemic to 189,135. The death toll stands at 8,883 in Germany; 11 of those deaths occurred since yesterday and raise the death rate to 4.7%.
The number of people who have overcome the disease amounts to 173,700 and of them, 300 have been cured since yesterday. The virus's reproduction rate, which measures the average number of infections per person, stood at 1.06 last night, above the threshold considered critical by health and political authorities.
The results of diagnostic tests carried out at the infected slaughterhouse and packaging plants for pig meat in North Rhine-Westphalia indicate that there are already 803 infections among employees. Up to 7,000 people are in quarantine in the area, reports Ana Carbajosa. ]
FT has not yet updated the graphs. If the graph for Germany continues to drop today too ... I will look elsewhere to compare just in case it was a FT problem
maty
Major Contributor
I just sent an email to John Burn-Murdoch (FT) asking him about Germany.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...lative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=cases
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...lative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=cases
maty
Major Contributor
Interview to Luis Enjuanes, responsible for the development of one of the most promising Spanish SARS CoV-2 vaccines.
“Para que el virus desaparezca hay que vacunar al menos al 70% de la población”
[Spanish] https://www.elindependiente.com/vid...y-que-vacunar-al-menos-al-70-de-la-poblacion/
"For the virus to disappear, at least 70% of the population must be vaccinated"
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elindependiente.com/vida-sana/salud/2020/06/20/para-que-el-virus-desaparezca-hay-que-vacunar-al-menos-al-70-de-la-poblacion/
[ The virologist Luis Enjuanes has been researching coronavirus for 35 years and directs, from the Higher Council for Scientific Research, an ambitious vaccine project against COVID-19 that he plans to be ready by the summer of 2021. ]
[ This Valencian born in 1945 already developed a vaccine against another disease caused by a coronavirus, SARS, in 2014 - perfected in 2016 - which was never commercialized because the virus disappeared and has not given any case again. ]
[ “Ours is the only vaccine that is based on the virus itself. It is a synthetic version to which we have eliminated the genes that contribute to its virulence and spread and therefore it is a very safe vaccine candidate," ]
[ Another big difference separates the Enjuanes project. Her vaccine would be administered by the nasal route, through a spray instead of injection and would reach the mucosa directly. "It is its great advantage, that it presents the antigen in the respiratory tract, which is what needs to be done to induce secretory immunity in the mucous membranes of the lungs." ]
[ A safe vaccine that could generate greater immunity "both systemic and secretory" and, in addition, very safe as it is a modified virus and is free of virulence or propagation capacity... ]
[ Enjuanes believes that vaccines will be able to induce immunity of between one and three years, both intramuscularly and intranasally, and that in order to overcome the virus, "mass immunization" must be carried out. "This requires vaccinating at least 70% of the population, which is when studies show that the virus gradually disappears," he concludes. ]
“Para que el virus desaparezca hay que vacunar al menos al 70% de la población”
[Spanish] https://www.elindependiente.com/vid...y-que-vacunar-al-menos-al-70-de-la-poblacion/
"For the virus to disappear, at least 70% of the population must be vaccinated"
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elindependiente.com/vida-sana/salud/2020/06/20/para-que-el-virus-desaparezca-hay-que-vacunar-al-menos-al-70-de-la-poblacion/
[ The virologist Luis Enjuanes has been researching coronavirus for 35 years and directs, from the Higher Council for Scientific Research, an ambitious vaccine project against COVID-19 that he plans to be ready by the summer of 2021. ]
[ This Valencian born in 1945 already developed a vaccine against another disease caused by a coronavirus, SARS, in 2014 - perfected in 2016 - which was never commercialized because the virus disappeared and has not given any case again. ]
[ “Ours is the only vaccine that is based on the virus itself. It is a synthetic version to which we have eliminated the genes that contribute to its virulence and spread and therefore it is a very safe vaccine candidate," ]
[ Another big difference separates the Enjuanes project. Her vaccine would be administered by the nasal route, through a spray instead of injection and would reach the mucosa directly. "It is its great advantage, that it presents the antigen in the respiratory tract, which is what needs to be done to induce secretory immunity in the mucous membranes of the lungs." ]
[ A safe vaccine that could generate greater immunity "both systemic and secretory" and, in addition, very safe as it is a modified virus and is free of virulence or propagation capacity... ]
[ Enjuanes believes that vaccines will be able to induce immunity of between one and three years, both intramuscularly and intranasally, and that in order to overcome the virus, "mass immunization" must be carried out. "This requires vaccinating at least 70% of the population, which is when studies show that the virus gradually disappears," he concludes. ]
maty
Major Contributor
Aumentan los contagios de COVID entre los adolescentes y jóvenes de Cataluña [España]
[Spanish] https://www.elindependiente.com/vid...entre-los-adolescentes-y-jovenes-de-cataluna/
COVID infections are increasing among adolescents and youth in Catalonia [Spain]
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elindependiente.com/vida-sana/salud/2020/06/20/aumentan-los-contagios-de-covid-entre-los-adolescentes-y-jovenes-de-cataluna/
[ In an interview on TV3, Ramentol revealed that since the end of May they have been detecting "an increase in cases among young people and adolescents, between 15 and 29 years old, and which is an element of special concern."
"It is not a high number," he pointed out, "about 5.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, but we are concerned about the trend, which is on the rise.".. ]
[Spanish] https://www.elindependiente.com/vid...entre-los-adolescentes-y-jovenes-de-cataluna/
COVID infections are increasing among adolescents and youth in Catalonia [Spain]
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elindependiente.com/vida-sana/salud/2020/06/20/aumentan-los-contagios-de-covid-entre-los-adolescentes-y-jovenes-de-cataluna/
[ In an interview on TV3, Ramentol revealed that since the end of May they have been detecting "an increase in cases among young people and adolescents, between 15 and 29 years old, and which is an element of special concern."
"It is not a high number," he pointed out, "about 5.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, but we are concerned about the trend, which is on the rise.".. ]
maty
Major Contributor
-> Why Acting Fast Is the Key to Beating a Second Wave of Covid-19
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-swift-covid-19-lockdowns-more-effective/
[ The U.S. response to the virus was both slower and weaker than most other countries. With the exception of a ban on travelers arriving from China, and eventually Europe, containment was handled almost entirely by state and local governments that didn’t agree on how serious a threat the virus posed, or whether a lockdown was worth the economic hit. Despite confirming its first case in January, most states didn’t begin to cancel large gatherings or close schools until mid-March. Even then many people continued to travel across state lines.
“In a country that has the mobility of the United States, you just can’t leave it up to the states,” Dybul said. “So we are not going to be ready for a second wave unless there’s a federal response. And we can’t reopen safely, or well.” ]
[ Countries that are reopening in spite of rising cases, including the U.S., are likely to face resurgences sooner than they otherwise would have, making it all the more urgent for them to prepare to act as soon as warning signs emerge. Unfortunately, that’s not always happening. New cases are ticking up in more than 20 states, according to a Johns Hopkins virus tracker measuring the three-day moving average in each state, though the trend is particularly pronounced in fewer than 10 states. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan scrapped a plan to reimpose a lockdown after cases jumped by 1,000 in a single day—instead urging people to be careful and maintain social distancing at all times.
“We’ll have more infections spreading throughout the next 3 or 4 months than we need to have,” said Dybul. “That doesn’t augur well for a large second wave. It means we’re not ready for one, and it means the second wave will be larger than it needs to be.” ]
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maty
Major Contributor
[Pedro] Sánchez rechaza tomar medidas adicionales de control del Covid-19 el aeropuerto de Barajas por ahora
[Spain] https://www.abc.es/espana/madrid/ab...te-nueva-normalidad-202006200110_noticia.html
[Pedro] Sánchez refuses to take additional control measures for Covid-19 at Barajas airport for now
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.abc.es/espana/madrid/abci-aeropuerto-barajas-gran-preocupacion-madrid-ante-nueva-normalidad-202006200110_noticia.html
[ For Sánchez, the controls are "among the most rigorous in European airports, as they include a primary control for all passengers, with temperature taking and documentary control through a questionnaire." In his opinion, they are coordinated with the EU States with recommendations from the Commission itself, the European Aviation Safety Agency, airport and company associations, and in close collaboration with the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control... ]
[ One of the Community's requirements is that the central government "tries to establish controls on travelers at origin, when taking the flight, by means of a negative test certificate". The regional government also requested that telephone operators be asked to receive a text message in different languages from the travelers using the telephones of the autonomous health services, so that they contact if they have symptoms.
The problem may be further aggravated as of July 1 when the borders are phased in. In his letter, Sánchez only details "that this opening will be coordinated with our Union partners through a" common list "based on restrictions established jointly for these third countries." In this case, travelers must prove, "as an essential requirement, that the epidemiological situation of origin is analogous or better than the EU". ]
As in late February. He knew perfectly well what was happening in northern Italy and China thanks to (public) National Security reports. When they act they will be late and wrong, AGAIN. Then they will say that nobody could have foreseen it.
[Spain] https://www.abc.es/espana/madrid/ab...te-nueva-normalidad-202006200110_noticia.html
[Pedro] Sánchez refuses to take additional control measures for Covid-19 at Barajas airport for now
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.abc.es/espana/madrid/abci-aeropuerto-barajas-gran-preocupacion-madrid-ante-nueva-normalidad-202006200110_noticia.html
[ For Sánchez, the controls are "among the most rigorous in European airports, as they include a primary control for all passengers, with temperature taking and documentary control through a questionnaire." In his opinion, they are coordinated with the EU States with recommendations from the Commission itself, the European Aviation Safety Agency, airport and company associations, and in close collaboration with the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control... ]
[ One of the Community's requirements is that the central government "tries to establish controls on travelers at origin, when taking the flight, by means of a negative test certificate". The regional government also requested that telephone operators be asked to receive a text message in different languages from the travelers using the telephones of the autonomous health services, so that they contact if they have symptoms.
The problem may be further aggravated as of July 1 when the borders are phased in. In his letter, Sánchez only details "that this opening will be coordinated with our Union partners through a" common list "based on restrictions established jointly for these third countries." In this case, travelers must prove, "as an essential requirement, that the epidemiological situation of origin is analogous or better than the EU". ]
As in late February. He knew perfectly well what was happening in northern Italy and China thanks to (public) National Security reports. When they act they will be late and wrong, AGAIN. Then they will say that nobody could have foreseen it.
maty
Major Contributor
[ Look at the trajectories of the deceased in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The pandemic started later but is now breaking out.
Just add up to 1.7 billion inhabitants. It is going to be a catastrophe. ]
IMHO there is more than meets the eye to this story, and eventually someone from the CDC is going to drop some truth bombs about what really happened with this decision because it just doesn’t make sense. The CDC has a budget of over $10B and an entire department of infectious disease experts who would be aware of prior studies on the effectiveness of public mask-wearing. And there are plenty of ways that the government could have immediately addressed the mask shortage: encourage the public to make their own masks, used the Defense Production Act to compel manufactures to make masks (gov’t eventually did this in late March), or back channel deals with other countries to import masks. And the public doesn’t need the surgical grade masks that health care workers require. I know this may read like a conspiracy theory, but I think my logic is sound - hopefully in a year from now we’ll know more.
Article on new COVID-19 case trends before and after protests in major metro US cities.
“Data for rest of the country (irrespective of where protests occurred) shows that out of the US's 3,141 counties, 1,421 saw an increase, 1,198 a decrease and 522 had the same number of reported coronavirus cases since Memorial Day on May 25 compared to the 15 days before.” However, LA looks like an outlier:
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/i...-spike-coronavirus-cases-200608052743621.html
“Data for rest of the country (irrespective of where protests occurred) shows that out of the US's 3,141 counties, 1,421 saw an increase, 1,198 a decrease and 522 had the same number of reported coronavirus cases since Memorial Day on May 25 compared to the 15 days before.” However, LA looks like an outlier:
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/i...-spike-coronavirus-cases-200608052743621.html
If I recall correctly a study that, if more than 1/2 wear masks and social distance, the disease will spread much more slowly. I really don't think legal enforcement will help, at least in the US where many believe it's a political statement (instead of common sense public health advice.)
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Old Listener
Senior Member
I appreciated your recent posts in this thread. I don't think that your posts have been too political.
I have noted the decline in new cases in NYC and the lack of a large spike of new cases in GA. My hypothesis is that earlier spikes were enough to put the "fear of God" into residents. If that's the case, how long will the fear last?
maty
Major Contributor
Finally, Germany go up.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...lative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=cases
Robert Koch Institute (RKI)
-> [PDF] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-06-20-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
to English
[ The reported sensitive R-value can be estimated by using a 4-day moving average of the number of new cases estimated by the nowcasting. This 4-day value shows the infection process approximately one to two weeks ago. This value is sensitive to short-term changes in the number of cases, such as can be caused by individual outbreak events. This can lead to relatively large fluctuations, especially in the case of an overall small number of new cases. With data status on June 20, 2020, 0:00 a.m., the 4-day R value is estimated at 1.79 (95% prediction interval: 1.33–2.23) ]
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...lative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=cases
Robert Koch Institute (RKI)
-> [PDF] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-06-20-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
to English
[ The reported sensitive R-value can be estimated by using a 4-day moving average of the number of new cases estimated by the nowcasting. This 4-day value shows the infection process approximately one to two weeks ago. This value is sensitive to short-term changes in the number of cases, such as can be caused by individual outbreak events. This can lead to relatively large fluctuations, especially in the case of an overall small number of new cases. With data status on June 20, 2020, 0:00 a.m., the 4-day R value is estimated at 1.79 (95% prediction interval: 1.33–2.23) ]
maty
Major Contributor
[ Virginia has been reopening with masks required, and so far the curve looks pretty good. We should highlight VA as a relative success. ]
Not sure, but women, democrats, college educated, and city dwellers are more likely to wear masks:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/health/coronavirus-face-masks-surveys.html
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Where in heaven's name did you get the statistic that mortality is at least 45 times that of the flu? That doesn't line up with any published data I have seen. You must be relying on the now discredited Oxford model.
As for asymptomatic transmission, the waters are pretty murky now thankds to the WHO. Spreading panic doesn't help anything.
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