...about Sweden. Here's some data for reference.
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I looked at the Swedish data because Michael Levitt predicted their policy would be a winner and Australia's a "standout loser".
Now I feel much better about my lack of a Nobel Prize
, outside of his field of expertise he doesn't look that sharp.
Sweden has ~
one hundred times the fatality rate from Covid as Australia.
And their disease burden from hospitalisations and sick workers is also, of course, far worse.
The worse Covid outcome was the expected consequence of the lack of restrictions in Sweden.
The hope was that the looser restrictions would have other compensations, better economic outcomes and so on.
But this does not seem to have occurred.
Swedish Bank predicts a 6.8% decline it GDP, very similar to the ~7% decline predicted for Australia (OECD numbers, depends a bit on the details.)
Their economic stimulus handout is ~10% of GDP, essentially identical to Australia (9.9% from memory but the numbers are only forecasts so pointless to quibble about a fraction of a percent).
The unemployment numbers are hard to compare because Australia has a subsidy scheme to keep people on a company payroll rather than officially "unemployed".
But unemployment seems broadly comparable.
So I'd say it's a fairly solid disproof of the "restrictions are pointless or worse" school of belief.
A clearer comparison would be between Sweden and Norway.
I know less about the data for Norway but their death rate is far lower, about one tenth of Sweden.
And the economic hit is comparable, SEB actually predicts Norway's GDP decline will be less than Sweden.
So it looks like a bold but unsuccessful experiment.
It is still early, of course, perhaps there will be payoff later but I suspect the reverse.
With such low case numbers Australia looks better placed to move forward.
Restrictions have started to ease now.
No one at all in hospital with Covid in my territory.
No one in quarantine either, and no new cases for more than 3 weeks now.
Still a few cases in other states but I think no one would swap with Sweden.
Or the US, the UK or almost anywhere else bar New Zealand.
Best wishes
David
l
