I'm curious, are there studies out there that validate this?
For example, although the boomers are going to die off, their millenial children are an even bigger cohort, and will be reaching their peak earning years (perhaps belatedly) starting in the late 2020's. Will that help offset the outflow? I don't know, just asking.
Also, taking in the field as a whole, suppose it is true that there will be less interest in megabuck equipment. (I don;t know that; this is a hypothetical.) The contrary trend is that it has never been cheaper to become an audiophile.
I used to spend $1000's in the 1980's-90's for LP's and then CD's. Now I have 95 million lossless recordings available for $7.99/month on Amazon HD, and many (if not all) are as good or better than the original CD's or LP's.
Since when could you get low distortion, straight-wire-with-gain dac's and amps for less money? So much improvement.
And markets are now not just USA and Europe, they are global, with billions (yes with a "b") of people gradually upgrading their living standards toward and into the consumer class. (This research I'm more familiar with.) Is it possible that many of them will enjoy recorded music well enough to look beyond their phones? And will some of them become hobbyists, or status conscious?
(For example, did the emergence of Chi-Fi happen because of Western markets? Topping doesn't even have a service presence here. But they sure do in the Far East.)
Again, I'm just asking, is there some useful research on this out there? Is there some evidence that today's kids don't take up an interest in hi-fi once they establish careers and start nesting? I'm just not familiar with it and I'm curious.
Well, let's take a look at the US distribution.
Source
Seeing how the average life expectancy in the US is 78.79 years and the oldest Boomers are 76 and the youngest are 58 then yes. Between now and 20 years that group will be almost completely gone. In 10 years time you can probably expect that group to be reduced to only half their size and the previous 'Silent Generation' to be gone as well.
That means that a lot of brands that only appeal to that group will be in trouble.
Millenials only partially grew up on CDs. Those born later grew up in the time of MP3 and online streaming. Many of them do not own hifi but are used to cheap stereo sets, soundbars or bluetooth speakers. The cheap '
Good enough' is often better than the affordable options in the 90's and earlier.
That is of course juxtaposed with these generations growing up with the internet and being used to finding people sharing their particular hobby or interest on forums and places like Reddit.
Globally, you see a slightly different distribution where younger people make up a far larger part of the population.
Source 2021
I'd say, globally at least, Gen-X might save the Boomer-brands for a while but in most of the Western world... not really. The younger generation chooses their own brands. The classic brands from Japan are being replaced by new brands from China and the local brands either adapt.... or die.
Combine that with people preferring integrated designs (
the smartphone does it all as well) and some of the old-school "
20 boxes for the perfect sound" designs will go out of fashion.
I for one
hate the way McIntosh looks and cannot for the life of me imagine someone wanting that in their living room.