-
WANTED: Happy members who like to discuss audio and other topics related to our interest. Desire to learn and share knowledge of science required. There are many reviews of audio hardware and expert members to help answer your questions. Click here to have your audio equipment measured for free!
[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]
- Thread starter andymok
- Start date
- Status
Also, case fatality rates should always be stratified by relevant demographics to provide any insightful information, in the case of COVID-19 you need to at least group the fatality rates by age groups.
Here is a study (which was criticized by Anthony Fauci as not a valid comparison) that says fatality rate is about 20x for a one-week period compared to flu:
“These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase,” the authors wrote.
https://www.contagionlive.com/news/why-comparing-flu-covid-19-severity-not-equivalent
But I really caution folks to only look at one number for fatality rate, because it will be dramatically different depending on the age group, and also race as we have recently learned.
Thank you for your post. It's unfortunate, but this pandemic has always had political aspects. I've tried not to cross the line by being as fact based as possible.
maty
Major Contributor
-> How many needless Covid-19 deaths were caused by delays in responding? Most of them
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths/
[ To compare each country’s responses to the pandemic on a consistent basis, we turned to the work of an Oxford University team that has constructed a stringency index based on 13 policy responses (lockdowns, border closings, tests, etc.) to measure how strongly each country responded over time. The Oxford index shows that 14 days from the date of the 15th confirmed case in each country — a vital early window for action — the U.S. response to the outbreak lagged behind the others by miles. The U.S. stringency score of 5.7 at that point was 25% of Australia’s (23), 23% of Germany’s (25), 18% of Singapore’s (32), and only 15% of South Korea’s (38)... ]
[ Due to exponential viral spread, our delay in action was devastating. In the wake of the U.S. response, 117,858 Americans died in the four months following the first 15 confirmed cases. After an equivalent period, Germany suffered only 8,863 casualties. Scaling up the German population of 83.7 million to America’s 331 million, a U.S.-sized Germany would have suffered 35,049 Covid-19 deaths. So if the U.S. had acted as effectively as Germany, 70% of U.S. coronavirus deaths might have been prevented.
Seventy percent, though, is the most conservative estimate. Scaled-up versions of South Korea, Australia, and Singapore would have experienced 1,758, 1,324, and 1,358 deaths, respectively, in the four months after 15 cases were confirmed in each country. Had we handled the coronavirus as effectively as any of these three countries, roughly 99% of the 117,858 U.S. Covid-19 deaths might have been averted... ]
[ Another crucial failure involved testing. Three weeks after the 15th Covid-19 case had been confirmed in the U.S., only about 10,000 tests had been administered. By an equivalent point in its epidemic, South Korea had administered approximately 17 times more tests per capita than the U.S. had done. This testing fiasco crippled vital early contact tracing efforts when hot spots could have been contained... ]
[ Two recent studies published in Nature confirm the “astonishing effectiveness” of the type of government interventions we have discussed, especially when adopted early. Our analysis shows that with the same actions actually taken by other nations large and small, from East and West, the U.S. could have prevented 70% to 99% of its Covid-19 deaths. This has been a needless tragedy. ]
maty
Major Contributor
[ The 5 states with the highest slope of case increasing, per million population, June 20th 1. Arizona (way out in front) 2. South Carolina 3. Florida 4. Texas 5. Oklahoma (pre-rally) ]
maty
Major Contributor
[ The latest, high daily positive test rates in these states are telling 1. Arizona *17%* 2. Texas 10% 3. South Carolina 10% 4. Florida 9% 5. Oklahoma 6% also noting Alabama 12%, Utah 10% all have the pattern recent upswing in last 2 weeks like AZ ]
onofno
Active Member
During the last 24 hours 16 people died from Covid 19 in France.
maty
Major Contributor
Dave Zan
Active Member
In Australia the reports of the US demonstrations showed mainly Minnesota, New York and the capitol, DC.
A look at the John Hopkins data shows that these places had a decline in cases.
Whereas Arizona had comparatively few demonstrations I believe, and the worst increase in cases.
So protest demonstrations look to have actually a protective outcome!*
(At least as effective as Hydroxychloroquine, and the data quality is probably better than the papers either pro or contra.)
[Edited after @Racheski 's post #2876
*Not really, it was an attempt to point out counter-intuitive data in a less serious way.
The data hints that perhaps states have worse Covid outcomes if they had less protests because that is correlated with a conservative outlook and hence also earlier removal of restrictions.
But I wanted to avoid the politics, not to mention the work to test this seriously.[/Edit]
Unfortunately that's about all the positive news I can extract from the US.
@Putter, it's not that there is no interest in your posts, it's just that I (and I suspect I am not alone) am lost for words.
Many Australians are just dumbfounded by the US response, for instance the recent statement by the POTUS that he requested tests be slowed down.
I won't, of course, make a political call on that.
I will say that it seems Australia's intensive test system has been one of the major factors in our success.
Our restrictions were not particularly severe compared to many other countries.
But our death rate is almost 100 times less than the USA and we haven't had a death in more than 4 weeks.
Only 2 people left in Intensive Care Units in the whole country so the ratio should exceed 100 soon.
We still have not beaten Covid but our medical people have done a heroic job and the test teams are crucial.
Best wishes
David
Last edited:
I don't know your academic level, aptitude or education so I can't judge whether to take your view seriously.
I take the advice of people with years of knowledge and experience in their subject, personally.
Personally I abhor the "death of expertise" which is fundamentally due to some humans preferring to ignore facts which do not support their opinion rather than to change their opinion to match facts.
It is usually non-experts and politicians who do this, I apologise in advance if you have years of relevant scientific experience leading to this view.
maty
Major Contributor
European countries (EU) share intelligence and their leaders knew very well what was happening in China and later in northern Italy, but the vast majority decided not to act until it was late. Knowing that it had exponential growth (confirmed in northern Italy) its inaction is faulty and has proven a great excess in mortality.
Any European healthcare system is liable to collapse if it is not acted upon accordingly. Some would take a few days longer than others but still collapse.
In South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, they were more aware of the great danger from the previous SARS pandemics and their leaders did not hesitate to act as soon as their intelligence services warned them.
This negligence is guilty and in many countries it is prosecutable, as in Spain, even with the opposition of the prosecution thanks to investigating judges -inheritance of the French Napoleonic code- and private accusations.
Any European healthcare system is liable to collapse if it is not acted upon accordingly. Some would take a few days longer than others but still collapse.
In South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, they were more aware of the great danger from the previous SARS pandemics and their leaders did not hesitate to act as soon as their intelligence services warned them.
This negligence is guilty and in many countries it is prosecutable, as in Spain, even with the opposition of the prosecution thanks to investigating judges -inheritance of the French Napoleonic code- and private accusations.
maty
Major Contributor
Two images of the "new normal" in South Korea.
https://www.ft.com/content/d68d6292-0486-4bfc-bf5c-54ce850a3f7a
I suppose that many will say that it is something exaggerated, unnecessary in Europe. As it happened with the masks.
I am very afraid that they will only separate the tables in the classrooms, with fewer students per class. And almost nothing else. Maybe the hydroalcoholic at the entrance, maybe. Will students necessarily wear a mask?
Then everything will be in a hurry and they will say that they have not had time for it. Surely what many public schools will not have is money to equip the classrooms like the Korean ones. There are other more priority expenses...
https://www.ft.com/content/d68d6292-0486-4bfc-bf5c-54ce850a3f7a
I suppose that many will say that it is something exaggerated, unnecessary in Europe. As it happened with the masks.
I am very afraid that they will only separate the tables in the classrooms, with fewer students per class. And almost nothing else. Maybe the hydroalcoholic at the entrance, maybe. Will students necessarily wear a mask?
Then everything will be in a hurry and they will say that they have not had time for it. Surely what many public schools will not have is money to equip the classrooms like the Korean ones. There are other more priority expenses...
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2019
- Messages
- 124
- Likes
- 338
An animated statistic chart about Covid-19
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/
maty
Major Contributor
[ On the Trump event in Tulsa ... despite local authorities advising against mass meetings (and worse indoors), 6,611 people attended. I have played with this model:
https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu
Probability that 1 or more infected came: 99% ]
[ The average number of positive tests in the USA is 6%. 6,611 x 6% = 396 infected attendees.
8 people sat near each infected person. That is, 1 person sitting in front, behind, to the sides and diagonally: 8 x 396 = 3,173 attendees at risk of becoming infected. ]
Without masks in a closed room: https://www.lavanguardia.com/intern...asistencia-mitin-trump-pandemia-oklahoma.html
https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu
Probability that 1 or more infected came: 99% ]
[ The average number of positive tests in the USA is 6%. 6,611 x 6% = 396 infected attendees.
8 people sat near each infected person. That is, 1 person sitting in front, behind, to the sides and diagonally: 8 x 396 = 3,173 attendees at risk of becoming infected. ]
Without masks in a closed room: https://www.lavanguardia.com/intern...asistencia-mitin-trump-pandemia-oklahoma.html
Check out my earlier post...most major metro cities had protests, and most did not show a spike in cases, except for LA. It’s also possible that there is a bit of self selection among the protestors (younger, if you are diagnosed you are probably not attending), driving down the infection rate among protesters. I don’t think we can conclude that attending the demonstrations was protective though.
Who exactly would be prosecuted?
maty
Major Contributor
[ The 'art' of the Andalusian Health counselor to explain how to wear the mask ]
[ On the wrist? On the chin? In the throat? The Andalusian Health Minister (PP), Jesús Aguirre, explains how to wear the mask well and discards other "false" ways because there is no "scientific evidence that they have an effect". ]
[ On the wrist? On the chin? In the throat? The Andalusian Health Minister (PP), Jesús Aguirre, explains how to wear the mask well and discards other "false" ways because there is no "scientific evidence that they have an effect". ]
maty
Major Contributor
Criminal negligence is contemplated in the Spanish penal code. Some complaints even raise the crime of reckless homicide by ALL the members of the council of ministers, since the decisions are solidary. It must be shown that some of those reports reached that council. There is supposed to be a record of it, unless they are destroyed [crime again] like...
The one who surely had daily access to the National Security reports is the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez.
The one who surely had daily access to the National Security reports is the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez.
My guess is that you could prosecute many leaders for criminal negligence notwithstanding differences in laws. Here in NY, Andrew Cuomo is given credit for largely suppressing the the virus in NYS.
This is an alternative view. They point out he started too late, that he didn't test in prisons and other issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/20/andrew-cuomo-new-york-coronavirus-catastrophe
My view is that it's easy to criticize in hindsight. My suspicion is that in addition to not initially comprehending the scale of the pandemic he also thought that citizens would not tolerate a lockdown until it was clear there was no choice or wear masks or socially distance. Looking at the statistics, IT WAS TOO LATE. New York State has the highest death rate (159/100K) followed by New Jersey (145) and Connecticut (119), states surrounding NYC epicenter of the initial outbreak in the US. Those states and most of the others, primarily in the northeast, now have the lowest rates of transmission likely due as much to having the crap scared out of them (or as Old Listener put it "The Fear of God") vs. having a greater regard for civic duty or their politics. Oklahoma by comparison has only 9 deaths/100K although that no doubt will increase.
This would lead me to suspect that strategies for dealing with the pandemic such as mask wearing and social distancing will start to occur in the other states as the pandemic hits home. An example may well be the Tulsa Rally which was relatively sparsely attended (6,611 people attended in 19000 seat arena). I still think that will be a slow motion disaster as people go back to their various locations in the midwest and spread the virus.
- Status
Similar threads
