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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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I am here in Beijing (since 2003) and my wife and children are 1200 miles away down on the family farm in Sichuan. In my Wechat circle of friends I have over a 1000 contacts (I have been a teacher all these years) and aside from asymptomatic cases I believe that the numbers from China are most likely reliable. I was advised by my school to return my tickets (I had a later start planned for the Chinese New Year) and have been, like hundreds of millions of other people, totally isolated and only going out once a week to the grocery store (everyone wearing mandatory masks). I have a good friend in Hubei province and asked him if he knew personally of a single case and he answered in the negative. Another friend, a graduate of UPenn, is in Wuhan and also has no personal knowledge of a single case. Within my circle of contacts of students and teachers I do not know of a single case. As I stated previously, posts in Chinese critical of the initial mistreatment of the doctor who tragically died at such a young age were NOT removed. New cases in Beijing are announced by the distict, and in some cases, by the neighborhood of occurrence. As soon as a connection was identified between returning travelers all international flights into the capital were rerouted to other cities to effect mandatory quarantine. Six miles away from where my family is there was one case (a visitor from Hubei) that was completely sealed off; each village in those mountains was , like my building complex in Beijing, barricaded and restricted to residents only who are allowed to go out for grocery shopping, and whose temperature is taken at several points of ingress and egress. All countries, China included, have their positive and negative attributes, all of which are best evaluated from a socio-historical context. In their efforts to control, and moreover, to treat the victims of this virus, China has taken decisive and effective measures that involve enormous costs.
Thanks for information. I guess lockdown in Wuhan is still in place. We are under self isolation (Only can go out for essential items). Can you tell rough lockdown period in Beijing and shanghai ? (When it started and when lifted.
Take care everyone
Thanks and regards.
 

maty

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That's not what the local grocery stores are doing - at least not yet. They're cutting hours but not increasing wages. As a result I expect they will find many of their employees quitting now that they can collect unemployment benefits (possibly in excess of their wages) by applying under the "fear of a dangerous work environment" classification. I don't know about Costco however, they might be increasing wages as well.


I'd wager that although most have heard of Spain... probably less than 30-40% could find the country on a map (without using their smartphone). Geography stopped being a required course long ago unfortunately - it was woefully inadequate when I was in school... and things haven't gotten better in the past 30 years. :( I'm sure 85%+ could tell you what Kim Kardashian was wearing yesterday however. :facepalm:
I remember being a young man, about fifteen years old, our history teacher asked the class what was the capital of the United States. 50% said New York!

Since then, the Spanish educational system has worsened greatly in the face of widespread indifference. In Spain for many years excellence or merit has not been valued. The best heads leave the country fed up.
 

RayDunzl

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I remember being a young man, about fifteen years old, our history teacher asked the class what was the capital of the United States. 50% said New York!
Since it was a history class, maybe they weren't entirely wrong...

"New York City remained the capital of the U.S. until 1790, when the role was transferred to Philadelphia."

At least they were able to name a city in the U.S.
 
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Thanks for information. I guess lockdown in Wuhan is still in place. We are under self isolation (Only can go out for essential items). Can you tell rough lockdown period in Beijing and shanghai ? (When it started and when lifted.
Take care everyone
Thanks and regards.
Here in Beijing some people have returned to work (government employees I think) but restaurants are closed; neighborhoods are still blocked off with no visitors allowed, and schools are still giving classes online. It has been like this for two months. Down on the farm they are allowed to work in their fields without masks, but if they go into town they must wear them. One lesson learned from all of this as I have gazed at the photographs of heavily laden plates of food taken by my son is that the possession of a self-sufficient farm (sustainable and organic) in dire times is true wealth.
 

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Frank Dernie

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One lesson learned from all of this as I have gazed at the photographs of heavily laden plates of food taken by my son is that the possession of a self-sufficient farm (sustainable and organic) in dire times is true wealth.
I think this crisis has taught us is that money isn't everything.
A lesson I expect to be forgotten pretty well as soon as the pandemic is over.
Some people are so poor all they have is money - Bob Marley
 

maty

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Since it was a history class, maybe they weren't entirely wrong...

"New York City remained the capital of the U.S. until 1790, when the role was transferred to Philadelphia."

At least they were able to name a city in the U.S.
I suppose it must be a follow-up question she asked each year to detect the increasing general lack of knowledge of new student remittances. Today even the vast majority of Spanish teachers are mediocre as they are the result of the current disastrous educational system, except for the oldest.

- End off topic -
 

maty

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Here in Beijing some people have returned to work (government employees I think) but restaurants are closed; neighborhoods are still blocked off with no visitors allowed, and schools are still giving classes online. It has been like this for two months. Down on the farm they are allowed to work in their fields without masks, but if they go into town they must wear them. One lesson learned from all of this as I have gazed at the photographs of heavily laden plates of food taken by my son is that the possession of a self-sufficient farm (sustainable and organic) in dire times is true wealth.
Fortunately, Spain is a great producer of all kinds of food, while a few European countries import most of them, especially one that has just left. Our problems will be others soon.
 

carlob

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PierreV

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I think this crisis has taught us is that money isn't everything.
A lesson I expect to be forgotten pretty well as soon as the pandemic is over.
Some people are so poor all they have is money - Bob Marley
True, true. I notice I am being pulled in two different directions these days. On one hand, a simpler, quieter life is attractive. On the other hand, given the unstable nature of economic wealth and the uncertainty of life, why not spend like crazy while you can?

I am looking at an expensive, heavy amplifier which, I am sure, doesn't measure too well and which I do not need right now. I could always use the excuse that I helped the economy...
 

fredoamigo

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Yesterday I was reading an interview with Boris Cyrulnik, who has popularized the concept of "resilience", a process that allows one to be reborn from one's suffering.
here about what we are going through... some excerpts...

"One way or another, this will all come to an end. Like building the after?

"Boris Cyrulnik: We will have to try to start projects, which is an excellent energizer, both at the individual and collective level. And also looking for the causes of the disaster. Why are there repeated epidemics? Knowing and understanding is one of the keys to resilience, and the media have an important role to play in this: at the moment, apart from those who sensationalize or repeat things over and over again, I think that the media are holding their own, they are both pedagogical and practical, while at the same time asking the questions that cause annoyance about dysfunctions, as in the case of the masks.

What can be the face of this "post-coronavirus"?

Boris Cyrulnik: There is going to be a conflict between those who will want continuity and those who will want to change civilization. I already have a feeling that economists and politicians will say: "We know what needs to be done to revive activity". And surely they will reactivate the processes that led to the catastrophe, that is, excessive consumption, the cultural sprint. Are we going to let them? I have worked with Japanese, Chinese and Koreans and they all said: "School has become a form of abuse, making our children sprint at an exorbitant psychological cost, it leads to suicides, psychopathy, boys lock themselves up with video games", whereas the countries of the North - by rather following the rhythm of the children - obtain the same school results at 15 years old as the Japanese. In this fascinating debate, philosophers and scientists, democracy, journalists, novelists and word makers will have to get down to work to decide together on the desired future. The debates will be fascinating and, I am afraid, passionate, but if they are not passionate, it will mean that we are simply putting back in place the old processes, the processes of failure.

For you, we can't go on as we have been doing up to now...

Boris Cyrulnik: With every epidemic, or natural disaster, there has been a cultural change. After the trauma, we are forced to discover new rules, new ways of living together. In the Middle Ages, we didn't understand that we had to set up containment: infected people fled, taking the bacillus with them. And in Europe, two years after the plague epidemic of 1348, one in two Europeans had disappeared. By the time the epidemic stopped, social values had completely changed. People had discovered the arts of the home. Before that, art was essentially religious. Game and delicately painted fruit appeared, carpets under tables. Above all, we saw that production relationships had completely changed: before the epidemic, most men were considered serfs and were sold with the land. Afterwards, there had been so many deaths that the survivors who agreed to work were no longer serfs: they had to be paid to work. Production relationships and the hierarchy of values had been completely transformed. I want to believe that we are on the eve of a transformation of this magnitude.
 

maxxevv

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I am here in Beijing (since 2003) and my wife and children are 1200 miles away down on the family farm in Sichuan. In my Wechat circle of friends I have over a 1000 contacts (I have been a teacher all these years) and aside from asymptomatic cases I believe that the numbers from China are most likely reliable. I was advised by my school to return my tickets (I had a later start planned for the Chinese New Year) and have been, like hundreds of millions of other people, totally isolated and only going out once a week to the grocery store (everyone wearing mandatory masks). I have a good friend in Hubei province and asked him if he knew personally of a single case and he answered in the negative. Another friend, a graduate of UPenn, is in Wuhan and also has no personal knowledge of a single case. Within my circle of contacts of students and teachers I do not know of a single case. As I stated previously, posts in Chinese critical of the initial mistreatment of the doctor who tragically died at such a young age were NOT removed. New cases in Beijing are announced by the distict, and in some cases, by the neighborhood of occurrence. As soon as a connection was identified between returning travelers all international flights into the capital were rerouted to other cities to effect mandatory quarantine. Six miles away from where my family is there was one case (a visitor from Hubei) that was completely sealed off; each village in those mountains was , like my building complex in Beijing, barricaded and restricted to residents only who are allowed to go out for grocery shopping, and whose temperature is taken at several points of ingress and egress. All countries, China included, have their positive and negative attributes, all of which are best evaluated from a socio-historical context. In their efforts to control, and moreover, to treat the victims of this virus, China has taken decisive and effective measures that involve enormous costs.
Hope all will settle down soon for you.

There was this discussion with regards to falsified / questionable death numbers in Wuhan due to the sheer number of people collecting ashes of cremated family members after lifting of lockdown. Simple maths suggests well over 10,000 according to the article. Citing things like some of these crematoriums worked 19 hour days and that there endless queues of people collecting ashes from various crematoriums and that there was "strong security" at those locations. And the collection window was spread over 5 days.

I had a brief chat with a Chinese friend working in one of my vendor's company. He thinks its just a conspiracy theory.

Looked up the annual death rate, normalized across China and it was 7.26 / Thousand. Which means in Wuhan on an annual basis (with 11million) has about 79,860 'normal' deaths. So on an average month, that would be about 6655 deaths. Over the 2 months lockdown, 13,310 deaths.
Considering that it was winter and the additional stress of the lockdown, a rounded up 10% or even 20% is not out of the possibility either. So, the city's nominal mortality over that 2 months could have been 15,000~16,300. Add in the official 2500+ from the Covid-19, then it adds up to 17,500+ deaths during that period of time.

So, the actual mortality from the Covid-19 may not be far off from what the Chinese government reported unlike how that article suggests otherwise. Unless of course, the number of cremated ashes collected from the various crematoriums far exceed 18,000.
 
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andymok

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maty

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Question, how to disinfect masks while supply shortages last?

I spray them with isopropyl alcohol. I take a few days to use it again, still the first one. Aesthetic problem: the first time I also sprayed on top of the printed code (FFP3 mask) and the ink spread. Ethyl alcohol > 70% must be OK.

Bleach, mixed with water, spray for gloves, keys, shopping cart (hands)... card payment, which I clean with isopropyl alcohol.

I ask it after reading Pablo Fuente, (who will I follow from today):


[ #COVID19 Repito lo que conté el otro día, metiendo la mascarilla en el horno a 70 ºC unos minutos (más de 5) se pueden volver a utilizar sin problemas. Esto son circunstancias excepcionales. ]

[ I repeat what I told the other day, putting the mask in the oven at 70 ºC for a few minutes (more than 5) can be used again without problems. These are exceptional circumstances. ]
 

raistlin65

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No it doesn't.

Multiple hospitals have failed and they have indicated accordingly. They haven't mentioned anywhere that all hospitals have failed

Maty doesn't like the fact Spain is being called out.

"Agony in Spain and Italy as deaths climb and lockdowns are extended" is the headline.

I have a NYT sub that's why I can see the full article.
Here's a little trick to access some newspaper content that requires a login that works with Washington Post, New Nork Times, and others. Try a . after .com. For example,

Blocked by sign in: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-news.html#link-79fa2e

Add the .

https://www.nytimes.com./2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-news.html#link-79fa2e
 

RayDunzl

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