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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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andymok

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Facts

Virus: SARS-CoV-2
Type: Coronavirus
Disease: “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”)

Transmission: Droplets – Aerosol, Direct Contact infected surfaces (via mouth, nose, eyes)

Symptoms: Fever, Cough, Shortness of breath ( 2-14 days after exposure )
Common Features: Lymphopenia ( low white blood cells ), Pneumonia
Incubation Period: ~4 days ( 2-14d )
Complications: Pneumonia, ARDS, kidney failure
Death Rate : ~2%

Keywords : 武漢 , 肺炎, 新型冠狀病毒, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19

Wikipedia – Coronavirus disease 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

World Health Organisation (WHO) – Emergencies / Diseases / Coronavirus disease 2019
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) - Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [English | 中文 | Español]
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

Global Dashboard ("Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by John Hopkins CSSE") :
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The Lancet – Specialty Collections: Coronavirus
https://www.thelancet.com/collections/coronavirus

The New England Journal of Medicine – Topics: Coronavirus
https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus


Other resources on coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

https://www.audiosciencereview.com/...novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov.11102/post-348589

Insightful article which basically summarises with figures and charts of what I have been paralleling on this thread. Worth a thoughtful read if you are still nonchalant about the whole thing.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
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  1. --- PRC govt officials statements = BS
  2. --- HKSAR govt officials statements = BS
    --- Read local news / notes from experts / professional groups instead
  3. --- HKSAR Govt is doing LESS than that of 2003 SARS
  4. --- Highly contagious, very efficient
  5. --- Likely an airborne disease
  6. --- Infectivity ~2.6, range 1.5~3.5 ; Attack rate 83% : Death Rate 15%
  7. --- Estimate ~5% of cases have been reported
  8. --- Eye can be point of entry
  9. --- When infected, there can be no immediate symptom at all, and still be contagious
  10. --- 5th wave of transmission has begun. Patient does not need to have traveled to Wuhan to be infected.
  11. --- Hong Kong is not locked down
  12. --- Everybody Lies, just like House says. Patients have lied to medical teams in HK when admission.

Keywords : 武漢 , 肺炎,

For YouTube and Google Image, so you can see what your local media cannot show / unable to translate for you

ps ----- My personal experince: 2 weeks ago, quite a few ppl coughing in a full-house A380
pps ---- speaking from HK
 
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3n9v3x.jpg
 
andymok said:
  1. --- PRC govt officials statements = BS

  2. --- HKSAR govt officials statements = BS
    --- Read local news / notes from experts / professional groups instead

  3. --- HKSAR Govt is doing LESS than that of 2003 SARS

  4. --- Highly contagious, very efficient

  5. --- Likely an airborne disease

  6. --- Infectivity ~2.6, range 1.5~3.5 ; Attack rate 83% : Death Rate 15%

  7. --- Estimate ~5% of cases have been reported

  8. --- Eye can be point of entry

  9. --- When infected, there can be no immediate symptom at all, and still be contagious

  10. --- 5th wave of transmission has begun. Patient does not need to have traveled to Wuhan to be infected.

  11. --- Hong Kong is not locked down

  12. --- Everybody Lies, just like House says. Patients have lied to medical teams in HK.

Keywords : 武漢 , 肺炎

For YouTube and Google Image, so you can see what your local media cannot show / unable to translate for you

ps ----- My personal experince: 2 weeks ago, quite a few ppl coughing in a full-house A380
pps ---- speaking from HK
Click to expand...
Where did you find these, attack rate 83% is a bomb, usually is not greater than 25%..
 
sonci said:
Where did you find these, attack rate 83% is a bomb, usually is not greater than 25%..
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https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10219187303526942&set=a.10219037284536561&type=3

Dr. Pak-leung HO is an Associate Professor in HKU Faculty of Medicine
Prof KY Yuen is the Chair of Infectious Diseases, HKU


A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster

https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620301549.pdf

"The attack rate is rather high, up to 83% if we included the five patients (patients 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) with unexplained ground-glass radiological changes of the lungs on CT scan as the case definition in this family outbreak after visiting Wuhan." (p.8)
 
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SARS-2003's-outbreak

At that time - I had two plants to manage in China, one was in the Xinjiang province, the second one in the Gansu province.
From May-2003 thru July-2003, the flights between Urumqi, Xinjiang, and Lanzhou, Gansu, where stopped.
We were used to travel by cars (12-hrs. trip at least) between the two provinces, going thru several SARS-check-points.
(Pls. see the attached pics.)

I'm glad I'm in Europe and not in China this time ... I hope everyone's there can stay safe and away from the outbreak.
 

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FWIW, if you read the excellent paper from the lancet @andymok has posted, especially pages 7, 8 and 9 on the phylogenetic tree of genomic sequences, you'll see why a lot of the sensational headlines in a certain press don't make sense. But we'll have dozens of conspiracy theories anyway I guess... :(
 
graz_lag said:
SARS-2003's-outbreak

I'm glad I'm in Europe and not in China this time ... I hope everyone's there can stay safe and away from the outbreak.
Click to expand...

Indeed. Safe wishes to those in these areas. It is staggering (to my unaware ass) that China has over 100 cities with populations of 1mm+.

The U.S. has about 10...
 
Just hope Americans keep their eye on the ball instead of being overly distracted by where and what's going on with the coronavirus: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...deadlier-than-wuhan-china-disease/4564133002/

80,000 people in the US died of the flu in the 2017/2018 flu season: https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ Compared to 800 people dying during the SARS outbreak: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/coronavirus-victims-wuhan.html

Focus on best practices for avoiding the flu, and you'll do more to help yourself and prevent the death of others than you will tracking and worrying about the coronavirus.
 
raistlin65 said:
Just hope Americans keep their eye on the ball instead of being overly distracted by where and what's going on with the coronavirus: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...deadlier-than-wuhan-china-disease/4564133002/

80,000 people in the US died of the flu in the 2017/2018 flu season: https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ Compared to 800 people dying during the SARS outbreak: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/coronavirus-victims-wuhan.html

Focus on best practices for avoiding the flu, and you'll do more to help yourself and prevent the death of others than you will tracking and worrying about the coronavirus.
Click to expand...

It appears a different set of stats are used between the 2 countries. Comparing apples to oranges (not to mention China has regular flu deaths as well).

"The US flu mortality rate includes cases where flu causes other illnesses to worsen and lead to death, while China only counts people who die directly from flu," an observer who prefers to be anonymous told the Global Times.

The statistical methods used by the Chinese CDC should be revised, as deaths from pneumonia caused by the flu, for example, are not counted, the observer said.

Observers called for an improved statistical approach, and encouraged the public to get an annual flu shot.

An analysis led by Chinese scientists published in The Lancet Public Health in September 2019 found that there were 84,200 to 92,000 flu-related deaths in China each year, accounting for 8.2 percent of all deaths from respiratory diseases. (what are the other 91.8% of respiratory related deaths ?).
Click to expand...

Anyone know if this is true ???
 
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g29 said:
It appears different set of stats are used between the 2 countries. Comparing apples and oranges.
Click to expand...

"During November 2002 through July 2003, a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with severe acute respiratory syndrome that was accompanied by either pneumonia or respiratory distress syndrome (probable cases), according to the World Health Organization (WHO)."
https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/faq.html

So the number of people who died from the flu or complications of it in 2017/2018 in the US was an order of magnitude greater than the number of people who contracted SARS during the last outbreak.

Keep your eye on the ball :)
 
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