What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[maty]

[Spanish] https://www.diaridetarragona.com/ta...-por-coronavirus-en-un-dia-20200331-0093.html

Today, Camp de Tarragona: 29 new cases

29/562 -> 5%

Outbreak came later, it went up very fast but now it is also slowing down fast.

 

[raistlin65]

The Atlantic: Why There’s No National Lockdown

Not sharing this so that we can have a political discussion about whether or not the US should have a national lockdown.

Rather, this is an FYI for those of you in other countries who wonder why the US does not have a national lockdown. This article discusses the separation of powers and how many of the emergency powers in a health crisis rest within US states.

 

[MediumRare]

Illinois data released moments ago. 472 cases/m, 1.7% mortality. Hard to say the lockdown imposed 10 days ago has had an effect. Perhaps the next few days will show something. http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

 

[carlob]

You need at least 3 weeks to see any effect

 

[MediumRare]

The Dutch prime minister just gave a press conference. The decision is to extend the current measures with another three weeks until 28 April. This means people work at home if they can but those in e.g. industry or construction can still go to work, most shops are open but under strict rules about keeping 1.5 meter distance from each other, but restaurants, schools etc remain closed. We also keep a safe 1.5 meter distance from others at all times, etc. We are still allowed to go for walk or a bicycle tour. So it is not the complete lock down that one sees elsewhere. Thus far the secret ingredient is that people are very disciplined, so more invasive measures would add nothing. Shops are still brimming with food.
Current measures are slowly beginning to have an effect on new infections, but only slowly, so we need more time. .

I like the sound of all that - and I mean no disrespect - but all these calm-rational-logical-middle-way approaches are resulting in a fatality rate equal to or higher than Italy. http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#deaths-eu-norm I used to live in Amsterdam so it grieves me to see this result.

 

[Thomas H]

The Atlantic: Why There’s No National Lockdown

Not sharing this so that we can have a political discussion about whether or not the US should have a national lockdown.

Rather, this is an FYI for those of you in other countries who wonder why the US does not have a national lockdown. This article discusses the separation of powers and how many of the emergency powers in a health crisis rest within US states.

That is what worries me most about the situation in the States. We only had 16 "governors" to come to a conclusion and they delivered, although some were more drastic than others in their measures. You apparently need to get 50 to act in concert.

 

[MediumRare]

You need at least 3 weeks to see any effect

5994 x 1.15^11 = 27,886 cases and 460 fatalities in Illinois eleven days from now (total three weeks since the lock-down). That would be 2,200/m cases, 25% higher than Italy today. :O

 

[MediumRare]

My phone just let out a long siren (like a tornado warning) and this popped up.

 

[MediumRare]

The Atlantic: Why There’s No National Lockdown

Not sharing this so that we can have a political discussion about whether or not the US should have a national lockdown.

Rather, this is an FYI for those of you in other countries who wonder why the US does not have a national lockdown. This article discusses the separation of powers and how many of the emergency powers in a health crisis rest within US states.

It doesn't bother me and I'm a libtard (well, at capitalist one, like most of us libtards). Governors have sufficient power to enforce quarantines within state lines. We've seen too recently once you start handing power to the government in a crisis, that power gets misused eventually. The Genie will not go back into that damn bottle.

 

[BDWoody]

That is what worries me most about the situation in the States. We only had 16 "governors" to come to a conclusion and they delivered, although some were more drastic than others in their measures. You apparently need to get 50 to act in concert.

They don't really need to agree, but they need to learn how to coordinate between themselves more effectively.

The idea is that what is needed in Nebraska with 6000 acre farms vs. Rhode Island, vs. Hawaii, vs. Alaska are all different enough that the State Governor is in fact best positioned to manage that state, with support as needed.

If they can better allocate what are still limited resources among themselves as the virus works its way around the country, that might be better.

No one expects the EU members to all agree with how to do things, even though you share a geographic space about 1/2 of the U.S., with roughly 3 times the population density.

 

[Thomas H]

They don't really need to agree, but they need to learn how to coordinate between themselves more effectively. The idea is that what is needed in Nebraska with 6000 acre farms vs. Rhode Island, vs. Hawaii, vs. Alaska are all different enough that the State Governor is in fact best positioned to manage that state, with support as needed.

Agreed and quite a very different situation compared to my tiny country, I was referring to with the 16 "governors". I was not even considering the EU ... But coordination seems to be lacking in some areas currently, I remember a news broadcast recently (not sure which of your many TV channels it was), where different governors (off all parties) complained that they have to compete for medical supplies.

 

[Wes]

There is quite a diversion between rural states and large cities inside them - often headed by different political parties.

Texas is one example.

 

[Laserjock]

Information and FAQs on Performance, Protection, and Sterilization of Masks Against COVID-19
https://utrf.tennessee.edu/informat...tion-sterilization-of-masks-against-covid-19/

[ Sterilization using radioactive such as gamma rays has the potential to decompose the PP materials, using alcohol will erase the charges. However, charges are retained by exposing the masks in the hot air at elevated temperatures such as 70C for 30 minutes, which kills the coronavirus according to a report. But be sure to suspend the masks in the hot air without contacting or being too close to a metal surface because the metal temperature is much higher than that of the hot air leading to a severe charge decay or to the damage of the masks... ]

[ Polymer PP has a surface energy of 35 dynes/cm, a hydrophobic material, much lower than the surface tension of room temperature water, 71.2 dynes/cm. Alcohol has a lower surface tension, 20 dynes/cm, than PP. Alcohol will penetrate into the MB PP fabric and erase the charges. Therefore, face masks cannot be sterilized using alcohol because the charges are erased by either liquid or vapor alcohol. The testing standards to test a filter efficiency after erasing the charges by alcohol include ASHRAE 52.2 Appendix G, EN 776, and EN 16890... ]

[ Q2: Can the masks be treated using alcohol?

A: No, face masks cannot be sterilized using alcohol because the charges will be erased by either alcohol liquid or its vapor as described in a previous section.

My friend, Dr. Cai, a retired filtration testing scientist, had experimental data conducted in February 2020 as in the below table that support my above results in the past.

Treatment using alcohol or soap water Experimental
Initial Filtration Efficiency (3-fold medical mask) 93.2%
After Immersion in medical alcohol 67.0%
After treatment with saturated IPA vapor (ISO) 47.4%
After washing by hand with soap/water for 2 minutes 54.0%

The first web link in Q3 had the similar results of charge decay in sterilization using alcohol. ]

[ Q4: Can the masks be reused after hanging dry?

A: Not sure. According to a study published in New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), The COVD-19 can survive in the air for three hours, four hours on a copper surface, 24 hours on a cardboard, two-three days on a stainless or a plastic surface. It is reported from CDC that the possibility of infection from a package being shipped for a few days from China is very slim, which is a similar result as in the NEJM. PP is a hydrophobic plastic material with zero moisture content. The virus needs a host – a cell – to survive. A respirator can get dry in less than two-three days in a dry air environment. Based on the above reports, three-four respirators can be numbered, let them get dry, and reuse in the numbered sequence. ]

Did you see anything I posted about using UV-C light?
US state of Nebraska has a procedure and I’ve posted links several times.

 

[BDWoody]

...But coordination seems to be lacking in some areas currently, I remember a news broadcast recently (not sure which of your many TV channels it was), where different governors (off all parties) complained that they have to compete for medical supplies.

That's absolutely been an issue, and this is where some federal agencies are getting involved to try to better act as a central source to mitigate some of those very issues. Hopefully there can be much better coordination on that front.

As the hottest spots are coming clear, the governor's are more likely to share supplies if they know they are covered. If you are expecting an outbreak in Kansas, you are not going to want to send your ventilators to NY, because you may not get them back when you need them. Once the spread can be monitored through better testing (over 1 million tested now), and better screening, Kansas is much more likely to pitch in.

It's certainly an all hands on deck situation...

If you think of the states as separate countries that all pay dues to the Fed's, that's closer than you might think. Different income and sales tax rates and laws, gun laws, health care laws, abortion laws, speed limits, and on and on... The States individually are very independent, but I predict will coordinate much better once this early panic/stock up subsides.

Get those tests out...

 

[SemperUnum]

I like the sound of all that - and I mean no disrespect - but all these calm-rational-logical-middle-way approaches are resulting in a fatality rate equal to or higher than Italy. http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#deaths-eu-norm I used to live in Amsterdam so it grieves me to see this result.

Comments like this are understandable but are unfortunately coming from some underbelly feelings.

Due to different measuring profiles and methods per country (like what do they really count as a COVID-19 death? How will the final curve be?) we will only know the final and complete results long afterwards.

So please, in the mean time let's not resort to finger-pointing, it will only divide people.

 

[Lao Lu]

Hope all will settle down soon for you.

There was this discussion with regards to falsified / questionable death numbers in Wuhan due to the sheer number of people collecting ashes of cremated family members after lifting of lockdown. Simple maths suggests well over 10,000 according to the article. Citing things like some of these crematoriums worked 19 hour days and that there endless queues of people collecting ashes from various crematoriums and that there was "strong security" at those locations. And the collection window was spread over 5 days.

I had a brief chat with a Chinese friend working in one of my vendor's company. He thinks its just a conspiracy theory.

Looked up the annual death rate, normalized across China and it was 7.26 / Thousand. Which means in Wuhan on an annual basis (with 11million) has about 79,860 'normal' deaths. So on an average month, that would be about 6655 deaths. Over the 2 months lockdown, 13,310 deaths.
Considering that it was winter and the additional stress of the lockdown, a rounded up 10% or even 20% is not out of the possibility either. So, the city's nominal mortality over that 2 months could have been 15,000~16,300. Add in the official 2500+ from the Covid-19, then it adds up to 17,500+ deaths during that period of time.

So, the actual mortality from the Covid-19 may not be far off from what the Chinese government reported unlike how that article suggests otherwise. Unless of course, the number of cremated ashes collected from the various crematoriums far exceed 18,000.

 

[Lao Lu]

I just saw a government announcement warning about asymptomatic infections and the necessity for continued mask wearing...the announcement also asked that these cases be reported within two hours.

 

[Wes]

That is what worries me most about the situation in the States. We only had 16 "governors" to come to a conclusion and they delivered, although some were more drastic than others in their measures. You apparently need to get 50 to act in concert.

it's worse than that...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/governors-trump-coronavirus-156875

 

[raif71]

I just saw a government announcement warning about asymptomatic infections and the necessity for continued mask wearing...the announcement also asked that these cases be reported within two hours.

reported within two hours or ...

 

[Prana Ferox]

Why do all the work yourself trying to avoid others when they can avoid you?

We were half-joking at work today about getting squirt guns. If someone gets too close, you spritz 'em. In range of the gun, in range of the virus.

(A very American solution, if I say so myself.)