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Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

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North_Sky

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North_Sky

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Can't trust China's numbers, everyone knows that.

* As an aside, earlier today I was looking @ the state of high-end audio forums.
The vast majority (97.75%) are on a decline...with nowhere to go but down.
And I'm not kidding, you all can check for yourselves,

But, there is an exception, yes, it is ASR, right here. The trend is up.
But then, is it hi-end? Of course not, it's science, better that hi-fi, better than wi-fi.
 

Vasr

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Well, it's a cumulative display, so ultimately, we all will end up in the burgundy.
Not necessarily.

Without a vaccine perhaps asymptotically at best over many, many years if not decades but that assumes that there is no vaccine and that the R would not fall to such a low value from mitigation efforts that the probability of infection gets asymptotically closer to zero.

If you look at the "burgundy" countries, they are all ones that had huge flare-ups relatively early in their histories that they could not control and so no going back from those numbers. US is one of the few exceptions still averaging about 700+ deaths a day and a case study in mis-management combined with stupidity. If there was a color beyond Burgundy, US would mostly likely reach it.

Many of the ones that are in lighter colors would have to see a huge second/third wave flare-up to rise up to the burgundy level of proportion.
 

Willem

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What is striking is that of all advanced economies Germany stands out with low numbers. What is also striking is that the US failed to take full advantage of the low initial numbers in the country, and most of all that unlike in other advanced economies in the US there is no end to the rising number of fatalities.
 
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US even have a covid-19 party, the guy whom was infected invite everyone.
One of the participant dies later on.

Well, no country can stop the spread if the people act like idiots.
 

Harmonie

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Theoretical study:

If a whole society is confined for 6 weeks. The infected are isolated and cured (or not, but isolated).
will the covid concerning that society dye by itself (as no further contamination and nutrition to it)?


If the answer is yes; several countries had this experience, but it wouldn't work.

" Well, no country can stop the spread if the people act like idiots. "
+1
 

mansr

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Without a vaccine perhaps asymptotically at best over many, many years if not decades but that assumes that there is no vaccine and that the R would not fall to such a low value from mitigation efforts that the probability of infection gets asymptotically closer to zero.
The mitigation efforts can't be kept indefinitely. Another year, and you're looking at a total collapse of the economy with mass unemployment, homelessness, etc. Recovering from that would take decades. Oh, and once the economy is shot, the virus will probably start spreading uncontrollably anyway along with various other diseases. Continuing with heavy-handed restrictions is only defensible if a vaccine is expected to be ready pretty damn soon.
 

Harmonie

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From all the vaccine announcements, is there any of them informing the immunized period ?
Another year, and you're looking at a total collapse of the economy with mass unemployment, homelessness, etc.
Otherwise, some counties will/may consider the history of similar (worse) pandemics and make an economical choice.
 

Willem

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Not all measures are equally effective or economically disruptive. Germany or the Netherlands never had a complete lockdown, and managed to mitigate the infection rate quite effectively without totally destroying the economy. Social distancing and masks probably go a long way, if they are obeyed effectively, and do not necessarily result in a massive economic downturn. Conversely, the freedom that some are now demanding seems mostly to be the freedom to behave like idiots and go to bars.
 

mansr

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Not all measures are equally effective or economically disruptive. Germany or the Netherlands never had a complete lockdown, and managed to mitigate the infection rate quite effectively without totally destroying the economy. Social distancing and masks probably go a long way, if they are obeyed effectively, and do not necessarily result in a massive economic downturn. Conversely, the freedom that some are now demanding seems mostly to be the freedom to behave like idiots and go to bars.
A lot of businesses are unsustainable with strict distancing measures in place. Bars and restaurants, obviously, but some shops might also struggle. If online shopping looks like a solution, consider that meeting that demand while maintaining distancing in the warehouses may be difficult. IIRC there have already been outbreaks at Amazon facilities.
 

Willem

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Sure and that is why I argued that well respected somewhat less rigourous measures may be enough. Our shops never had to close and we were never banned from going outdoors to shop for whatever or go for a walk or a bicycle ride. People who could not work from home mostly continued to work on site.
 

Dave Zan

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...efforts can't be kept indefinitely...a total collapse of the economy with mass unemployment, homelessness, etc. Recover[ery] would take decades....heavy-handed restrictions is only defensible if a vaccine is expected to be ready pretty damn soon.
You make a series of assumptions in your post that don't appear to be supported by facts.
First a straw man about efforts that can't be kept indefinitely - no one proposes unsustainable restrictions.
A temporary lock-down can essentially eliminate community transmission.
The best evidence is from China itself, they have controlled the disease to the point that their death rate is ~200 times less than the US, the UK or Sweden.
And that includes deaths from the mishandled, early phase of the outbreak, current rate seems to be essentially zero.
Similar results from the other extreme of the spectrum, New Zealand, so it looks broadly applicable.

Second, the assumption is that restrictions will cause "a total collapse of the economy"
The evidence is clearly to the contrary, I posted in the economics thread but for those that missed it.
Kohler.PNG

Countries that imposed restrictions early and effectively have better economic outcomes.
As well as less deaths and sickness.

Finally, it is a false dichotomy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma) to criticise unsustainable efforts and therefore imply that the alternative is the abolition of restrictions.
The choice is not between restrictions and economic slow down versus no restrictions and no slow down.
Once the virus is widespread people restrict themselves anyway and the slowdown is even worse and almost certainly more sustained because it takes so much more time to control a widespread outbreak.

The McKinsey corporation have done an analysis of this
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...ousands-of-lives-and-trillions-in-livelihoods

The fact that such extremes as the Chinese Communist Party and the very capitalist McKinsey Corporation reach the same conclusion makes me think it's probably true, not the result of their, obviously very different, preconceptions.

So, yes, no one wants restrictions but they seem to be the least worst response.
They have worked for us in Australia
We had an outbreak from a quarantine failure of returned travellers, after we had eliminated community transmission.
Almost entirely in one state, and now almost back under control.
Australia.PNG


So control looks doable without economic disaster or tyrannical restrictions.
The states that controlled earliest also opened sooner, with less economic downturn and less disruption of peoples lives.
And our death rate is ~20 times less than USA.
No cases at all in my own jurisdiction (the Australian Capital Territory) for months, life is practically normal.
Except for prayers, maybe, that we stay on track.
And determination not to repeat the mistakes that let the virus spread.

Best wishes
David
 
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Vasr

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You make a series of assumptions in your post that don't appear to be supported by facts.
First a straw man about efforts that can't be kept indefinitely - no one proposes unsustainable restrictions.
A temporary lock-down can essentially eliminate community transmission.
The evidence is from China itself, they have controlled the disease to the point that their death rate is ~200 times less than the US, the UK or Sweden.
And that includes deaths from the mishandled, early phase of the outbreak, current rate seems to be essentially zero.
Similar results from the other extreme of the spectrum, New Zealand, so it looks broadly applicable.

Second, the assumption is that restrictions will cause "a total collapse of the economy"
The evidence is clearly to the contrary, I posted in the economics thread but for those that missed it.
View attachment 84275
Countries that imposed restrictions early and effectively have better economic outcomes.
As well as less deaths and sickness.

Finally, it is a false dichotomy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma) to criticise unsustainable efforts and therefore imply that the alternative is the abolition of restrictions.
The choice is not between restrictions and economic slow down versus no restrictions and no slow down.
Once the virus is widespread people restrict themselves anyway and the slowdown is even worse and almost certainly more sustained because it takes so much more time to control a widespread outbreak.

The McKinsey corporation have done an analysis of this
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...ousands-of-lives-and-trillions-in-livelihoods

The fact that such extremes as the Chinese Communist Party and the very capitalist McKinsey Corporation reach the same conclusion makes me think it's probably true, not the result of their, obviously very different, preconceptions.

So, yes, no one wants restrictions but they seem to be the least worst response.
They have worked for us in Australia
We had an outbreak from a quarantine failure of returned travellers, after we had eliminated community transmission.
Almost entirely in one state, and now almost back under control.
View attachment 84281

So control looks doable without economic disaster or tyrannical restrictions.
The states that controlled earliest also opened sooner, with less economic downturn and less disruption of peoples lives.
No cases in my own Territory (statelet) for months, life is almost normal.

Best wishes
David
Brilliant reply based on logic against FUD.

What I find amusing about the "libertarian" (that is a kind spin on what is often Ayn Randian) forecasts of doomsday if Governments impose any restrictions for public good is that it often goes in parallel with total denial of worsening effects of Climate change and so not requiring any Government intervention. What is common between the two? Ideology or self-interest.
 

North_Sky

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North_Sky

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The mitigation efforts can't be kept indefinitely. Another year, and you're looking at a total collapse of the economy with mass unemployment, homelessness, etc. Recovering from that would take decades. Oh, and once the economy is shot, the virus will probably start spreading uncontrollably anyway along with various other diseases. Continuing with heavy-handed restrictions is only defensible if a vaccine is expected to be ready pretty damn soon.
Like before the end of next month, end of this year?
And how many people worldwide need to get vaccinated (out of 7.8 billion)?

* Question for you: What would you do?
...With schools, inside and outdoors music concerts, museums, movie theaters, restaurants, gyms, wedding parties, beaches, bars (including taverns and strip joints), indoors hockey games, volleyball, outdoors soccer games, football games, baseball games, tennis and golf tournaments, boxing matches, casinos, opera houses (Spain, Italy, Vienna, ...), bingo halls, ...

Do you bowl (bowling)?
 

North_Sky

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From all the vaccine announcements, is there any of them informing the immunized period ?
Another year, and you're looking at a total collapse of the economy with mass unemployment, homelessness, etc.
Otherwise, some counties will/may consider the history of similar (worse) pandemics and make an economical choice.
Harmonie, when we Google the latest news on vaccines (the serious ones, not the Russian ones) we learn more and more how complex it is to develop an effective vaccine specifically for Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). There's no miracle in pushing what cannot be pushed. I won't post any links because Google can do that for us.
And so far there is nothing serious coming up soon on that front.

Next year is our best bet, and betting on a vaccine in record time is like betting @ the Russian roulette in a New Jersey's abandoned casino.
My opinion of course, for what's worth.
I prefer to rely more on science, hard honest work, in real space and on solid analyses based in real time...not fake time. Because vaccines do require serious analyses and serious time. Pushing it is like bullying people around in drinking poisonous Koolaid.
 

North_Sky

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Dave Zan, you did ...
https://www.audiosciencereview.com/...ock-markets-updates.12077/page-11#post-508614

Asia is doing much better health and wealth management than anyone else in the world when it comes to COVID-19 pandemic...South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam+, China+.
And behind...Australia and Denmark.

The other countries? They get more vaporized with time, because they don't take it seriously enough...the measures of their populations.
 
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Vasr

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The other countries? They get more vaporized with time, because they don't take it seriously enough...the measures of their populations.
I think every one of them knows it is serious by now but a lot of them just don't have the ability or unwilling to do much about it for various reasons. India - size of population, many African countries - lack of financial resources and/or infrastructure, Latin America, US - political calculations and/or incompetence, etc.

Relatively smaller density countries with relatively disciplined citizenry, fewer anti-intellectual voices destroying trust in science, not too many below poverty line and non-demogouging leaders will do much better than others. We should see this correlation pretty well.

I would say countries like Germany, Norway and to some extent Canada all fit the above. Some South-East Asian countries too.
 

North_Sky

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Today's the first day of Autumn (Fall) in North America.
It's a nice sunny day where I am right now...outside. Some trees are colorful.

20200922_123316.jpg


Spain, France and UK are @ the start of a second wave, as predicted by WHO.
 
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