Coronavirus (COVID-19): Global business, economics, and stock markets updates

[North_Sky]

New Smartphone Sales Data ...
• https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnko...otorola-down-62-in-new-smartphone-sales-data/

Mostly all down ...

 

[North_Sky]

Where are we @ on the global economic sector with this COVID-19 pandemic ...
• https://markets.businessinsider.com...way-end-2019-levels-amundi-2020-9-1029566271#

Are we recovering, some countries faster, how long until we get back to normal?
Or is the word "normal" extinct, like not in the dictionary anymore?
Maybe we can reinvent the world and create new jobs good for the humanity in distress?

The economy; what is more important if not the economy then what?
Can we live and be healthy and survive without the economy, without money, without a paycheck, a job, a car, gas, electricity, audiophile hi-fi stereo sound system?

I think it depends, of where we live and what we cultivate.
In Canada we have corn, in China they have rice, in Russia they have ice.
What do you have?

 

[North_Sky]

This might be of interest to world techno scientists ...
• https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020...e-leading-the-way-in-digital-competitiveness/

Which countries are leading...in the digital age.
The analog age is a movie now...from the silent era with a live piano.

 

[Dave Zan]

Where are we @...with this COVID-19 pandemic ...
The economy; what is more important if not the economy then what?

Looks like the countries that decided people and health were important did better economically anyway.
It's a cliche at a personal level, "What's the use of money if you don't have your health?"
Looks like countries should follow a similar rule, those that prioritised money over the welfare of their people ended up with neither.
Of course, correlation is not causation - so there is another possible interpretation.
But the idea that China simply had more competent leadership is likely to be unpopular with some, so better not to discuss it.

Picture from Alan Kohler, credited to Deloitte.

Best wishes
David

 

[Vasr]

Business: Sweden (Coronavirus economy relaxed lockdown...stronger than the rest) ...
• https://markets.businessinsider.com...own-stronger-rest-of-europe-2020-7-1029415101

I am guessing they are not going to update that "research report" with the 2Q results when the impact was maximum.

 

[Vasr]

Are we recovering, some countries faster, how long until we get back to normal?
Or is the word "normal" extinct, like not in the dictionary anymore?
Maybe we can reinvent the world and create new jobs good for the humanity in distress?

New normal to use that cliche.

All tectonic movements in the global economy creates winners and losers.

People who make their money deploying capital and leverage its liquidity and relatively free movements globally have done fairly well with this pandemic induced volatility. People who have had to depend on their labor for a living and in jobs that weren't mobile have losers and survivors. This may last for a while with some changes that are irreversible or at least as long-lasting as the secondary effects of Covid-19 infection.

The consumer-based economies are still strong as people in jobs that haven't gone away actually find themselves with a lot of discretionary income unspent which would have been previously spent on dining/travel/entertainment (the amount of money spent on these is enormous). Those industries will be the long-time losers. But it has accelerated delivery systems, online activities and in-home consumption. That will be a semi-permanent change.

Increased use of remote work-places is actually a good thing for the labor force. It makes them a lot more mobile. Real estate developers will hate it as the pricing power in concentrated mobile areas decreases. That also reduces wage pressures on companies and wage-inflation will be in check despite huge price-inflation pressures from the stimulus money and disruptions in supply-chains.

 

[North_Sky]

It's best to be wealthy and healthy than unhealthy and unwealthy.
What works best during a pandemic? ...Healthy food, healthy bank account, healthy investments, good hygiene, staying away of contagious people (invisible ones), not take any chance (wear a quality mask...one that works...N95 medical and surgical...don't go for less with more), high humor spirit and humility. ...Invest by acting and respecting smart. People, families, love ... before addictions. ...A normal life, helping each other beyond our owns.

What's the value of a man to gain the kingdom if he loses the trone?

I can predict who's going to end up winner, and who's going to end up loser.

 

[LeftCoastTim]

My Doom-and-Gloom theory goes like this:

1. Even without many deaths, social distancing will hurt consumer spend. Many food service, entertainment, retail, transport companies will go bankrupt and workers in those industries who are mostly working class and living without any savings will go bankrupt as well. That means default on loans and mortgages will spike.
2. The above could mean something like a second Great Depression.
3. In the near term, the market will be driven by bad news. If US gets hundreds of deaths per day, which is likely for a modest total death count (50k), or thousands of deaths per day (in the case of 100k+ total deaths), market sentiment will not be rosy.
4. A long lasting US market depression will shift the global capital to somewhere else. Our bubbly stock market had been driven by low interest rates and slow global growth. If US stops growing, that money will likely go to China instead, who still has a large and growing economy.

That’s my doom and gloom version. Check back with me 6 months from now

Ok, one week shy of 6 months. Let's see how my predictions did.

1 and 2. Right.
3. Wrong. Even at 200k deaths, the stock market didn't care and hit all time highs!
4. Wrong. Since US market is so high, the recovery in the Chinese economy has been overshadowed.

My new predictions for the next 6 months:

1. Global growth restarts, probably with vaccines or new therapeutics. Recovery will be strongest in EU and Asia.
2. US stocks will reconnect with the real economy and take a major dive.
3. US stocks will further be suppressed due to continued political chaos. World's confidence in America will be badly shaken.
4. Chinese index will sky rocket.

 

[North_Sky]

Six months from now I cannot predict where the global markets will be overall.
...What the global economy will look like. That is embarrassing because of an uncertain/unsecured future ahead. ...eCommerce should stay on top.

 

[Xulonn]

The world will never go back to what is was. With the power of the Chinese economy and the emergence of a navy bigger than even the U.S. (according to a report by the U.S. Naval Institute this month), and the purposeful alienation of long-time military and economic allies, the U.S. has abdicated its leadership and opened the door to global chaos.

At the age of 78, fortunately with still pretty good mental acuity, the world I will leave eventually will be quite different than that which my deceased contemporaries left behind in the past couple of decades. The Star Wars meme is more real than I imagined in 1977 - the "dark side" (of human nature) is much stronger than I realized in my younger days, and "the force" with its base of light and reason will always struggle to suppress it.

The recovery from this pandemic may run head-on into a growing set of negative results associated with anthropogenic global warming and related climate change as the evolving science keeps uncovering harmful (to human civilization) trends in climate and weather-related problems.

 

[North_Sky]

The world will never go back to what is was. With the power of the Chinese economy and the emergence of a navy bigger than even the U.S. (according to a report by the U.S. Naval Institute this month), and the purposeful alienation of long-time military and economic allies, the U.S. has abdicated its leadership and opened the door to global chaos.

At the age of 78, fortunately with still pretty good mental acuity, the world I will leave eventually will be quite different than that which my deceased contemporaries left behind in the past couple of decades. The Star Wars meme is more real than I imagined in 1977 - the "dark side" (of human nature) is much stronger than I realized in my younger days, and "the force" with its base of light and reason will always struggle to suppress it.

The recovery from this pandemic may run head-on into a growing set of negative results associated with anthropogenic global warming and related climate change as the evolving science keeps uncovering harmful (to human civilization) trends in climate and weather-related problems.

That is quite a vision.

Mine: It's our children's children who will built tomorrow's world with the tools and knowledge @ their disposition. ...Starting today and each and every day.

Yes, you and I (I'm 65) we won't be here to witness the world in the year 2100.
But we'll be here next month same day (9) to witness this ...
• https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/

 

[onofno]

That is quite a vision.

Mine: It's our children's children who will built tomorrow's world with the tools and knowledge @ their disposition. ...Starting today and each and every day.

Yes, you and I (I'm 65) we won't be here to witness the world in the year 2100.
But we'll be here next month same day (9) to witness this ...

I'me 68 and I don't think I'll be here in 2050... unless a magic pill is able to to give me many more years without aging.
The problem is : do I want to see what's happening after 2050 ? Today I'm not able to say yes... even if I have no pathologies.

 

[North_Sky]

You would be 98, and Xulonn 108.
_____

What's new today? Apple and Microsoft ^ ... Tesla <>
• https://www.investors.com/market-tr...e-apple-tesla-stock-lululemon-slack-earnings/

 

[North_Sky]

This one is for fun ... it cannot be serious ... Snowflake and unicorn ...
• https://markets.businessinsider.com...-snowflake-ipo-rare-unicorn-2020-9-1029574925

 

[Xulonn]

You would be 98, and Xulonn 108.

My maternal great-grandfather, Cornelius Hoogenboom, was a crusty old bigoted conservative Calvinist (Christian Reformed) Dutchman who moved to the U.S. at age 57 to live with one of his daughters - my great-Aunt Anna and her husband, Walter Van Prooyen. He died a day before his 101st birthday, having lived in the USA for 44 years without ever learning to speak even basic English.

If I inherit his longevity, I have 22 more years to go - until 2041. That would probably be long enough to see more major global political shifts and climate change impacts.

 

[North_Sky]

That's the best read ^ in I can't remember how long...truly.

 

[RickSanchez]

If I inherit his longevity, I have 22 more years to go - until 2041. That would probably be long enough to see more major global political shifts and climate change impacts.

22 more years ... heck, that might be long enough to see PS Audio actually build a decent product.

 

[North_Sky]

Speaking of around 2049 or 2050 ...

 

[North_Sky]

And speaking of Elon Musk ...
• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...usk's net worth,the Tesla Inc. rout continued.

 

[Alice of Old Vincennes]

The world will never go back to what is was. With the power of the Chinese economy and the emergence of a navy bigger than even the U.S. (according to a report by the U.S. Naval Institute this month), and the purposeful alienation of long-time military and economic allies, the U.S. has abdicated its leadership and opened the door to global chaos.

At the age of 78, fortunately with still pretty good mental acuity, the world I will leave eventually will be quite different than that which my deceased contemporaries left behind in the past couple of decades. The Star Wars meme is more real than I imagined in 1977 - the "dark side" (of human nature) is much stronger than I realized in my younger days, and "the force" with its base of light and reason will always struggle to suppress it.

The recovery from this pandemic may run head-on into a growing set of negative results associated with anthropogenic global warming and related climate change as the evolving science keeps uncovering harmful (to human civilization) trends in climate and weather-related problems.

My great aunt felt the same way in 1968. She didn't mention "anthropogenic". Just the same gloom and doom..