Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[North_Sky]

This is the first time the skies clear a little (about half) this morning in about two weeks, good.

Germany is a country that is doing very good. I don't read the German news daily, just not enough time so I can't comment in the overall feel. But the numbers to me mean that the German people are conscientious people on health, ...and on many many more issues, excellence. I have the greatest respect and trust for Germany.
Our numbers in Canada are similar, but Germany is ahead.
I'm also more familiar with the news in Canada, and the overall feel.
But the numbers reflect our average mentality facing the pandemic, including the news reporting...all that jazz.
Some things I like, and other things I really don't like in Canada. It's normal, like most places in the world. We aim for our best.

I was supposed to be in Quebec right now, but I decided to not fly. I am way too much @ risk personally. Here's my window's view from the ground: You drive on the road, going to town or on the highway going to another town...you are a good safe driver, you are confident of your driving skills. All good till out of nowhere (you didn't see it coming) another driver crashes right on you. With this pandemic we didn't have driving courses and the unexpected is much higher.

Also, what we know is that not everyone are on the same page when it comes to wearing masks, self-distancing, washing hands, taking preventive measures, being more alert, respect, social gatherings, travelling, etc., etc., etc.

We balance what we have, we read scientific medical reports, we listen to what our health chiefs have to say and their recommendations, we trust less the people outside the health experts, but count on them to support us economically with our taxes, our health, our jobs, our bills, our mortgages, our sanity. If it doesn't work it's much tougher for some segments than others, from our society. It becomes a much more personal responsibility for all, rich and poor, employed or not, readjustment of life.

Vietnam is doing great; what are they doing good that we don't?

 

[North_Sky]

Vietnam is doing great; what are they doing good that we don't?

And so is Japan, Taiwan and Thailand. ...New Zealand.

UK and Italy? ...On the rise again

* Saturdays are always the days where the numbers start to go down (new cases and departed related to COVID-19). And Sundays and Mondays are always the slowest days of the week, registering the lowest numbers. Tuesdays are the start of the rise. The remaining three other days are the peaks of the week. This is pretty consistent for several months.

Since the beginning of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic announcement (official: Wednesday, March 11), our planet is averaging roughly 5,000 departed daily.
• https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-pandemic/

 

[North_Sky]

The US? Compare with Indonesia; a difference of roughly 60 (57.3) million people.

 

[raistlin65]

The US? Compare with Indonesia; a difference of roughly 60 (57.3) million people.

With five times the geographical space.

 

[North_Sky]

Yes, but also several islands (Indonesia) ...
US vs Indonesia (land superficy):

 

[North_Sky]

And we have to add Alaska and Hawaii to the USA ...

 

[North_Sky]

Better maps (scale) ...

 

[North_Sky]

An overview, as of September 19 ... still a very very very long way from herd immunity ...
¤ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
Not good news for the huge number of people facing starvation @ the end of the year.

"Governments across the world have been forced to limit public movement and close businesses and venues in a bid to slow the spread of the virus. This has had a devastating impact on the global economy.

Damage to the world's major economies is four times worse than the 2009 global financial crisis, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Meanwhile, the United Nations has said that up to 265 million people could face starvation by the end of the year because of the impact of Covid-19."
_____

Good news for pets ... cats & dogs ...
• https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...a-pandemic-payoff-has-been-good-pets-interest

 

[North_Sky]

Dr. Fauci: ‘We may be able to put this coronavirus outbreak behind us’ — but he says Americans must play a critical role

‘With the combination of a good vaccine along with public-health measures, we may be able to put this coronavirus outbreak behind us the way we put the original SARS behind us and, hopefully, in the way we put MERS, or the Middle East Respiratory System, behind us.’
— Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

[Fauci said last month that he was hopeful that a coronavirus vaccine could be developed by early 2021(early, like January 20/21), but has repeatedly said it’s unlikely that a vaccine will deliver 100% immunity; he said the best realistic outcome, based on other vaccines, would be 70% to 75% effective. The measles vaccine, he said, is among the most effective by providing 97% immunity.]

 

[Aerith Gainsborough]

Meanwhile, the United Nations has said that up to 265 million people could face starvation by the end of the year because of the impact of Covid-19."

If that comes to pass, our "COVID protection measures" were around 130x as deadly as the virus itself (assuming 2M C19 deaths until the end of the year).

 

[Wombat]

Re the OP. I was watching the news and saw/heard the Potus say it was about herd mentality.

I am only passing this on without comment. No political slant either way.

 

[mansr]

Re the OP. I was watching the news and saw/heard the Potus say it was about herd mentality.

I am only passing this on without comment. No political slant either way.

Although he undoubtedly misspoke, it's actually not far from the truth.

 

[Vasr]

If that comes to pass, our "COVID protection measures" were around 130x as deadly as the virus itself (assuming 2M C19 deaths until the end of the year).

Bad calculation. You would need to compare the (contrafactual) number of deaths that would have occurred without the protection measures to the (contrafactual) number of lives saved (not dying of starvation) by not having those measures.

If you read the article itself, you would see that this risk of starvation which has its own bad side-effects is in the poorer nations (not necessarily death) which don't have the financial resources to withstand the disruptions. This has not been a general problem in the developed countries where the governments have printed money and implemented other measures to counteract the financial hardships. The bodies are asking the richer nations to spread some of that financial resources to help the countries where they would face starvation otherwise. This is from the imbalance of financial resources not protective measures.

These countries weren't just affected by protective measures. They often depend on a single trade or tourism with a very small margin for disruption for a large part of their population. Increased deaths of bread-winners from the pandemic can send whole families into starvation. Tourism would have stopped all on its own if the pandemic had been raging with no protective measures and many of these countries (or areas) would be cut-off from their primary source of income.

Let us not try to use this unfortunate situation to promote our favorite spin in the entitled, largely unaffected developed country population.

 

[Aerith Gainsborough]

Bad calculation. You would need to compare the (contrafactual) number of deaths that would have occurred without the protection measures to the (contrafactual) number of lives saved (not dying of starvation) by not having those measures.

Correct, we'd need accurate data on how deadly this thing really is and not the usual #tests/dead people, which nets us a pretty ridiculous %age.
I'm not even sure such data exists (outside of models/speculations), since most tests are done on symptomatic persons/persons under suspicion and a lot of the asymptomatic cases go by unnoticed.

I sure hope our governments manage to help the less fortunate souls on this planet, though I'd imagine they will have their hands full dealing with their own population. Germany alone expects a huge wave of people going out of business when the "money printing" measures end in November.

 

[Wes]

Which is an indication that cases are not actually rising, but #of tests are.
We will see next Wednesday, when the RKI does it's weekly analysis on the number of tests performed and the %age that returned positive. If it stays below 1%, nothing is actually happening, except media bullshitting people.

It may indicate many things, such as better care, education for MDs on appropriate care, etc.

Be sure your posts are not "bullshitting people"

 

[North_Sky]

Did you know that the USA and Brazil alone together have 35.5% of all the COVID-19 departed on the planet? That's more than a third, now you know.

Add Mexico, Peru, Colombia and Argentina ... and it's just slightly over 50% of all worldwide departed. That's half.

The Americas we are not doing good facing the COVID-19 pandemic; no sir we are not doing good. Too many people aren't taking it seriously and that's the downfall; it affects everyone else who are taking it seriously.

* Question (tough one): How many (percentage) people aren't taking COVID-19 seriously in comparison to the people who are? And how many are simply not sure one side or the other?

I know; for each country it's different. And one country can effect other countries.
This is a pandemic, with pandemic questions to the scientists.

 

[North_Sky]

If that comes to pass, our "COVID protection measures" were around 130x as deadly as the virus itself (assuming 2M C19 deaths until the end of the year).

What do you suggest the world do; if we can find the best solution it would be the best fix.

 

[North_Sky]

Bad calculation. You would need to compare the (contrafactual) number of deaths that would have occurred without the protection measures to the (contrafactual) number of lives saved (not dying of starvation) by not having those measures.

If you read the article itself, you would see that this risk of starvation which has its own bad side-effects is in the poorer nations (not necessarily death) which don't have the financial resources to withstand the disruptions. This has not been a general problem in the developed countries where the governments have printed money and implemented other measures to counteract the financial hardships. The bodies are asking the richer nations to spread some of that financial resources to help the countries where they would face starvation otherwise. This is from the imbalance of financial resources not protective measures.

These countries weren't just affected by protective measures. They often depend on a single trade or tourism with a very small margin for disruption for a large part of their population. Increased deaths of bread-winners from the pandemic can send whole families into starvation. Tourism would have stopped all on its own if the pandemic had been raging with no protective measures and many of these countries (or areas) would be cut-off from their primary source of income.

Let us not try to use this unfortunate situation to promote our favorite spin in the entitled, largely unaffected developed country population.

You and I have very similar ways of thinking, of seeing reality.

Reality check ...

⚕⚖ https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-un-food-billionaires/u-n-food-chief-urges-bezos-other-billionaires-to-step-up-to-help-worlds-starving-idUKKBN26904I#:~:text=UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - U.N.,from the World Food Programme.

 

[Aerith Gainsborough]

It may indicate many things, such as better care, education for MDs on appropriate care, etc.
Be sure your posts are not "bullshitting people"

Sorry but with all the above you would see at leas some rise in deaths.
In Germany we don't. We went from 400 cases/day to 2K cases per day and deaths remain constant in the single digit range.

To put it into reference, in April, when we had 2k Cases per day we were around 200 dead people per day.
It looks similar in the ICU occupation department, there is only a slight rise in C19 patients.

So either, the virus suddenly got a lot less dangerous or there is something wrong with the numbers we're seeing.
I'm sure it's a combination of both, better treatments leading to lower mortality but also a lot of "fake" cases due to way to excessive testing.

What do you suggest the world do; if we can find the best solution it would be the best fix.

The best thing we can do now is to try to use our wealth to help the less fortunate souls on this ball'o'mud.

There is no happy Hollywood ending here, peeps are going to die. We can only hope that our actions result in less dead people compared to our inaction.

 

[North_Sky]

We all have heard and read about this scientist ...

https://soundcloud.com/john-catsimatidis%2Fdr-li-meng-yan-9-20-20
• https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Meng_Yan

I sure did, and extensively.

Today is September 20, 2020 ... we cannot turn the clock back but only move forward with the best solutions using the most accurate and truthful data, period.