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Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

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North_Sky

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After almost nine months there are many reasons why some countries have less mortality even if the number of new cases is rising.

Remember, ...exponentially comes with time...in waves.
And as we surf the waves we acquire more experience...all that jazz.

IMHO the recommendations by health scientist experts are sound.
The economy? It always have time to rebound, and besides some are making a fortune.
We know who ...

The dead doesn't rebound, ever.

* A vaccine that could be very effective? Being rich. Share the vaccine, share the wealth, save lives ...
 

Vasr

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Correct, we'd need accurate data on how deadly this thing really is and not the usual #tests/dead people, which nets us a pretty ridiculous %age.
I'm not even sure such data exists (outside of models/speculations), since most tests are done on symptomatic persons/persons under suspicion and a lot of the asymptomatic cases go by unnoticed.

I sure hope our governments manage to help the less fortunate souls on this planet, though I'd imagine they will have their hands full dealing with their own population. Germany alone expects a huge wave of people going out of business when the "money printing" measures end in November.
Really bad take on what I said. You seem to be trying hard to fit everything into the same tired narrative. :)
 
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That sounds like BS to me.
What quantitative proof do you have?
Just look at the data. If the virus is the cause of the infections you would see a rise in dead people.
We don't, despite having nearly 2200 cases per day now.

It's most easily seen for Israel. They did similarly well like us in the beginning. But then they got a >real< second wave.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

Look at their death numbers and compare those to the summer months.

Now look at our numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Can you see the difference?
So yes: I do maintain that something is not right with Germanys numbers.

Don't get me wrong: I do not expect hundreds of deaths per day like in April. After all, we now know the vulnerable groups and protect them accordingly (many of our deaths in the early days were from the elderly). If we increase the case load by the factor of 5 though, I would expect the death numbers to react in some way.

Other quantitative proof would be the %age of positive tests relative to the tests that have been administered. That is not really rising either (will have to wait for Wednesday for new data).

Really bad take on what I said. You seem to be trying hard to fit everything into the same tired narrative. :)
I'm not trying anything, I do not have an agenda. I am not a person in power.
I merely look at the data and come to a different conclusion. Which happens to be similar to Dr. Bhakdis conclusions.

Ultimately, it's completely irrelevant what I think, since I don't get a say in what happens out there anyway.
 
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North_Sky

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In a time when the best of all is in dire need we see more divisions all around.
We act as animals in rage, losing our humanity, our soul.

We fight for money, for power, for control, for security, for superiority, for greed, for selfishness, for independence.

 
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Vasr

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I merely look at the data and come to a different conclusion.
Which is fine except you looked at my post and co-opted it for something else. That narrative co-opted into seems to be a recurring theme, just saying. ;)

My comment (paraphrased) was explaining "Let us open up beauty salons because ... starving kids in Africa" was not a logical line of reasoning.
 
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lashto

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..
Can you see the difference?
So yes: I do maintain that something is not right with Germanys numbers.
..
most probably you are wrong. At the start of the pandemic there were rumors that Germany was not properly registering/counting the COVID deaths and I guess many people were a bit suspicious of their low numbers.

But you can have a look at the total number of deaths and any differences will tell you if the COVID reporting was 'beautified'. See euromomo or similar stats from theEconomist. There is nothing suspicious there, actually looks like Germany reported better than most other EU countries, i.e. they have one of the smallest numbers of "excess deaths".
Also somewhat interesting from the Euromomo graphs: some EU countries had worse mortality during the 2018 & 2019 flu seasons than from COVID.
 
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My comment (paraphrased) was explaining "Let us open up beauty salons because ... starving kids in Africa" was not a logical line of reasoning.
And I agreed with you on that.
I admit that my post about covid measures killing more people than the virus was dumb. I spoke (or rather typed) before I thought it through.

Still, I'd be interested in a realistic assessment.
We all know that the "sky is falling" figures we had in march were a wee bit on the pessimistic side of things.

@lashto: I am talking about the numbers right now. I am aware of the rumors 6 months ago but let bygones be bygones. Right now everyone is talking about a second wave in Germany and I just don't see the data supporting that claim. One could say similar things about France. Huge rise in cases/day and barely reacting death toll.

I pose the question: what exactly are we measuring? Are these still the same C19 infections as in March/April or is the test reacting to sth else?
 
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lashto

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@lashto: I am talking about the numbers right now. I am aware of the rumors 6 months ago but let bygones be bygones. Right now everyone is talking about a second wave in Germany and I just don't see the data supporting that claim. One could say similar things about France. Huge rise in cases/day and barely reacting death toll.

I pose the question: what exactly are we measuring? Are these still the same C19 infections as in March/April or is the test reacting to sth else?
Haven't seen a clear answer anywhere but there could be lots of reasons: better treatment, better preparation/knowledge in the hospitals, testing should be better (i.e. more cases are found), some of the most vulnerable died already, the virus might have mutated slightly, etc..
Yes, the mortality is much lower nowadays but it seems ~same worldwide and I do not see any reason to suspect "funny stuff". At least not for now.
 

PierreV

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And I agreed with you on that.
I admit that my post about covid measures killing more people than the virus was dumb. I spoke (or rather typed) before I thought it through.
If you are really interested in the possible mutations of the viruses, the false positive and false negative rates of tests, the treatment protocols, etc... actually studying the issues is likely to be more enlightening than blind speculation on numbers.
 

Neutron

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And I agreed with you on that.
I admit that my post about covid measures killing more people than the virus was dumb. I spoke (or rather typed) before I thought it through.

Still, I'd be interested in a realistic assessment.
We all know that the "sky is falling" figures we had in march were a wee bit on the pessimistic side of things.

@lashto: I am talking about the numbers right now. I am aware of the rumors 6 months ago but let bygones be bygones. Right now everyone is talking about a second wave in Germany and I just don't see the data supporting that claim. One could say similar things about France. Huge rise in cases/day and barely reacting death toll.

I pose the question: what exactly are we measuring? Are these still the same C19 infections as in March/April or is the test reacting to sth else?
In fact based on how Germany performed during other animal/human pandemic, I think Germany has proven its ability in controlling most known diseases from vast outbreak. In the very beginning of the pandemic, however, most are caught off-guarded.

Back to Israel, there have been many protests against current goverment since the beginning of the year, and have not died down even in Aug. Their pressure in pandemic control comes from multiple fronts. I remebered seeing news reports on that and covid infection a few month back.
 

Wes

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If you are really interested in the possible mutations of the viruses, the false positive and false negative rates of tests, the treatment protocols, etc... actually studying the issues is likely to be more enlightening than blind speculation on numbers.
people are studying mutations of this virus, but I have heard nothing as of yet about changes in virulence
 

Willem

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For what it is worth, some recent data from the Netherlands that demonstrate that infections are really increasing:
1 number of tests is stable. We are at maximum current capacity. For now testing has to be rationed again until new capacity becomes available.
2 Number of positive tests is increasing quite rapidly.
3. tbe number of virus particles in the sewage system is carefully monitored at 300 locations. The numbers are increasing quite steadily.
4 number of hospital admissions is increasing and so are icu admissions.
5 mortality remains very low.
 
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Willem

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Yes and it is a very early indicator, days before people show any signs. The data give a very precise indication of local trends even if absolute numbers cannot be compared
 

Vasr

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