Zero-emission vehicles, their batteries & subsidies/rebates for them.- No politics regarding the subsidies!

[j_j]

Well I think it is more like every 4 hours, and there are now some systems that can can cut that 1 hour down to 30 minutes using the 800 volt architectures. Driving an ICE I'd stop every 4 hours and can theoretically gas up and go in 5 minutes, but usually wish to go to the rest room, stretch my legs etc. So it turns into more like 15 minutes. So already the EVs aren't far from that.

If my job was a traveling salesman I wouldn't pick an EV. If I travel a half dozen times a year, I'd put up with the wait those few times to have the other benefits of EV ownership.

The good thing about batteries is that they are very easily recycled in either case. I've seen a lot of objections to EV's based on the idea that the "materials are wasted", which is just ridiculous.

 

[Blumlein 88]

It will be very nice if calcium batteries come along or anything other than scarce lithium, cobalt and nickel. Policy makers are pushing for rapid deployment of EV's which could easily get ahead of technology with high prices and shortages the result. I find it risky to base policy on yet to be developed technology. Some other technologies have shown up in my reading but not calcium.

Tesla has already gone to lithium iron phospate batteries for all their standard range cars.

 

[Ron Texas]

Tesla has already gone to lithium iron phospate batteries for all their standard range cars.

That still has lithium and I understand Tesla uses enough nickel that they had to raise prices last week. I was a stone's throw from Austin's Tesla complex this morning. As for 10 years vs 100 years, the EV industry benefits from the entire technological infrastructure which did not exist 100 years ago not to mention little things like modern suspension, coil springs and radial tires. Electric motors have been around a long time, EV transmissions are simple single speed items. The big deal is high capacity batteries.

 

[Blumlein 88]

That still has lithium and I understand Tesla uses enough nickel that they had to raise prices last week. I was a stone's throw from Austin's Tesla complex this morning.

The reason for the nickel use is they managed to greatly reduce the need for cobalt doing so. I think that was a change about 2 years ago. They still use nickel in their long range batteries. The need for a price increase isn't a world wide supply issue. It is that Russia supplies a fair bit of it and so nickel prices shot up more than 60% in the last two weeks.

 

[okaudio]

The good thing about batteries is that they are very easily recycled in either case. I've seen a lot of objections to EV's based on the idea that the "materials are wasted", which is just ridiculous.

There is many different opinions on how many EV batteries are or will get recycled. I don't think anyone claims it is "easy" but is rather expensive to do so. One must also look at the amount recovered in the recycling process. Hopefully governments will put plans in place (high deposit value or heavy fines) to push EV owners to recycle.

 

[Blumlein 88]

There is many different opinions on how many EV batteries are or will get recycled. I don't think anyone claims it is "easy" but is rather expensive to do so. One must also look at the amount recovered in the recycling process. Hopefully governments will put plans in place (high deposit value or heavy fines) to push EV owners to recycle.

I don't think any of that is necessary. There are already a few large recycling operations and some larger ones are being built. The EV recycling issue is further along than most people realize and not the big problem most people imagine.

We recycle 99% of regular lead acid car battery materials and EV batteries will reach this level soon enough.

 

[okaudio]

I don't think any of that is necessary. There are already a few large recycling operations and some larger ones are being built. The EV recycling issue is further along than most people realize and not the big problem most people imagine.

We recycle 99% of regular lead acid car battery materials and EV batteries will reach this level soon enough.

At the very least they should mandate strict tracking/reporting of EV batteries so it can't turn into a issue or guessing game on how much is recycled.

 

[Ron Texas]

The reason for the nickel use is they managed to greatly reduce the need for cobalt doing so. I think that was a change about 2 years ago. They still use nickel in their long range batteries. The need for a price increase isn't a world wide supply issue. It is that Russia supplies a fair bit of it and so nickel prices shot up more than 60% in the last two weeks.

There was a problem in the commodities market. Some outfit shorted nickel and the market went against them causing a short squeeze and the resultant price spike.

However, I remain convinced the policy makers efforts to force EV adoption by regulation will run up against supply constraints. If you think the chip shortage is bad now, just wait.

 

[jbags]

there is a New Yorker cartoon for all topics

 

[Spocko]

Well I think it is more like every 4 hours, and there are now some systems that can can cut that 1 hour down to 30 minutes using the 800 volt architectures. Driving an ICE I'd stop every 4 hours and can theoretically gas up and go in 5 minutes, but usually wish to go to the rest room, stretch my legs etc. So it turns into more like 15 minutes. So already the EVs aren't far from that.

If my job was a traveling salesman I wouldn't pick an EV. If I travel a half dozen times a year, I'd put up with the wait those few times to have the other benefits of EV ownership.

As a traveling salesman I'd definitely get a Prius Hybrid straight up because time is money and I don't have time to deal with the whole EV fast charging whack-a-mole.

 

[Spocko]

There was a problem in the commodities market. Some outfit shorted nickel and the market went against them causing a short squeeze and the resultant price spike.

However, I remain convinced the policy makers efforts to force EV adoption by regulation will run up against supply constraints. If you think the chip shortage is bad now, just wait.

Definitely not just "chips" that are in short supply - I've been waiting months for a motorized stand-up desk because car makers are first in line for the exact same control module for their seats - can't make cars without the adjustable seats right? Apparently, there are very few companies in the world that supply these things. After driving my Volvo C40 for several weeks, it was finally called in to receive the sensor module that allowed me to wave my foot under the bumper for the trunk to lift.

 

[j_j]

There is many different opinions on how many EV batteries are or will get recycled. I don't think anyone claims it is "easy" but is rather expensive to do so. One must also look at the amount recovered in the recycling process. Hopefully governments will put plans in place (high deposit value or heavy fines) to push EV owners to recycle.

The basic chemistry required to sort the elements into useful forms is actually not terribly difficult, nor is it terribly expensive. Compared to initial extraction, there's no contest at all.

So I'm not sure how these 'different opinions' come about. The chemistry is no mystery.

LiFePO4 only has one element (lithium) that's rare or hard to come by, and Li is rather easily sorted by electrolysis. There are similar solutions for the other components. NiH is also easily recycled, but not in the same stream.

The use of Nickel and Cobalt is in the motors. Again, recycling that is a well-understood problem in metallurgy.

 

[DudleyDuoflush]

A problem here is short-range vs. long range. For short range an EV makes fantastic sense (and the price will come down with production, you're comparing an industry with 10 year experience to an industry with 100 years of paring down the cost here). For long range, I'm sorry, 1 hour charging every 3 hours does not cut it. Period.

Just planning my next trip across Spain. 5.5 hours driving, about 45 mins charging. Main issue is chargers are quite often not directly on main routes so that can cost you a few more minutes. This is sure to change. Owning and driving an EV is much less hassle than I thought. I'm no evangelist for EVs but it is worth listening to people who have taken the plunge. I haven't met many who have regretted it. Saying that - my wife's old school straight six is much more fun!

btw - I've owned a self changing hybrid (Prius) and a plug in hybrid (c350e). Neither of these made sense to me. Far too much complication for not enough gain. The plug in had miniscule range and lots of safeguards that switched back to the ICE. It did go fast though.

 

[Marc v E]

The reason for the nickel use is they managed to greatly reduce the need for cobalt doing so. I think that was a change about 2 years ago. They still use nickel in their long range batteries. The need for a price increase isn't a world wide supply issue. It is that Russia supplies a fair bit of it and so nickel prices shot up more than 60% in the last two weeks.

I think you make a fair point about raised prices of commodities.
I would like to add though, that the main price raises are due to high demand and ev production not being able to keep up with it.
You can see the analysis here for Tesla, starting at 4:00 :

If Tesla wouldn't increase their prices, delivery times would get too long (they are already close to 14 weeks iirc and for some models end of the year).
Second hand prices could get higher than new vehicle prices.
When the Berlin and Texas factories ramp up, delivery times will get shorter and prices will come down again.

 

[mhardy6647]

When the Berlin and Texas factories ramp up, delivery times will get shorter and prices will come down again.

Emphasis added.

I... umm... I wouldn't make that bet, were I you.

 

[acetogen]

The basic chemistry required to sort the elements into useful forms is actually not terribly difficult, nor is it terribly expensive. Compared to initial extraction, there's no contest at all.

So I'm not sure how these 'different opinions' come about. The chemistry is no mystery.

LiFePO4 only has one element (lithium) that's rare or hard to come by, and Li is rather easily sorted by electrolysis. There are similar solutions for the other components. NiH is also easily recycled, but not in the same stream.

The use of Nickel and Cobalt is in the motors. Again, recycling that is a well-understood problem in metallurgy.

Nickel is about 16 times more abundant than cobalt. I don't know if this matters, but cobalt is very toxic, much more so than even nickel. Cobalt is harder to fine. The aborigin tribes in Guatemala are suing their government for using their land to mind for cobalt, notably to be used in fuel batteries.

 

[j_j]

Nickel is about 16 times more abundant than cobalt. I don't know if this matters, but cobalt is very toxic, much more so than even nickel. Cobalt is harder to fine. The aborigin tribes in Guatemala are suing their government for using their land to mind for cobalt, notably to be used in fuel batteries.

Cobalt, being an odd-numbered proton count, is of course less common than its adjacent elements.

Be that as it may, both cobalt and nickel can be very toxic when they are in organic form. Neither holds a candle to hexavalent chromium, though, and in metal form, both cobalt and nickel are very hard to get into a biological process. It's the organic side you have to worry about. None of them, or iron (which is also toxic in organic form in excess) are things you want lots and lots of in organic form.

Ironically, copper is right up there, too, but we handle copper wire all the time. This is an interesting (but not entirely definitive) read:

Toxicity of mercury, copper, nickel, lead, and cobalt to embryos and larvae of zebrafish,Brachydanio rerio - Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology

The toxicity of mercury (HgCl2), copper (CuCl2: 5 H2O), nickel (NiSO4: 6 H2O), lead (Pb(CH3COO)2: 3 H2O) and cobalt (CoCl2: 6 H2O) was studied under standardized conditions in embryos and larvae of the zebrafish,Brachydanio rerio. Exposures were started at the blastula stage (2–4 h after...

link.springer.com

The results are presented in the abstract, fortunately, thanks to the runaway monetization of all scientific publications.

 

[samsa]

A problem here is short-range vs. long range. For short range an EV makes fantastic sense (and the price will come down with production, you're comparing an industry with 10 year experience to an industry with 100 years of paring down the cost here). For long range, I'm sorry, 1 hour charging every 3 hours does not cut it. Period.

Tesla's V3 Superchargers charge at 250kW. To charge a 74kWh battery pack from 12% to 80% takes 12 minutes. That adds about 200 miles of range on the highway. Which is to say, for every 3 hours driving, you'd spend 12 minutes charging, not an hour.

 

[j_j]

Tesla's V3 Superchargers charge at 250kW. To charge a 74kWh battery pack from 12% to 80% takes 12 minutes. That adds about 200 miles of range on the highway. Which is to say, for every 3 hours driving, you'd spend 12 minutes charging, not an hour.

Assuming "drive up and charge" is always what you get to do.

 

[Marc v E]

Emphasis added.

I... umm... I wouldn't make that bet, were I you.

I will report it in this thread when it happens