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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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digicidal

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I don't care for him personally (or politically), but I think our Governor did well in shutting down a city which relies almost entirely on tourism - before we even had our 10th case... and long before testing started being widespread. Had he been wrong and just over-reacting... that would have been grounds for immediate impeachment. You don't order all of the casinos shut down without major repercussions.

I can't help but think that the 10/1/2017 mass shooting helped put this in perspective for many (private and public) as far as planning for a worse outcome than is necessarily supported by evidence at the time. There's still plenty of asshats of course... but in general (despite unemployment going up about 300%) people are handling it well and staying put.
 

mi-fu

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html

In particular, the high level of symptom-free cases is leading the C.D.C. to consider broadening its guidelines on who should wear masks.

“This helps explain how rapidly this virus continues to spread across the country,” the director, Dr. Robert Redfield, told National Public Radio in an interview broadcast on Tuesday.

The agency has repeatedly said that ordinary citizens do not need to wear masks unless they are feeling sick. But with the new data on people who may be infected without ever feeling sick, or who are transmitting the virus for a couple of days before feeling ill, Mr. Redfield said that such guidance was “being critically re-reviewed.”

Now, they say wearing masks is good and even necessary, only 3 months late.
 

amirm

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andymok

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Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions

Alex W.H. Chin, Julie T.S. Chu, Mahen R.A. Perera, Kenrie P.Y. Hui, Hui-Ling Yen, Michael C.W. Chan, Malik Peiris, Leo L.M. Poon*
School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036673v2.full.pdf

To the Editor,

We previously reported the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in different clinical samples1 . This virus can be detected on different surfaces in a contaminated site2 . Here, we report the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions.

We first determined the stability of SARS-CoV-2 at different temperatures. SARS-CoV-2 in virus transport medium (VTM; final concentration: ∼6.8 log TCID50/mL) was incubated for up to 14 days and then tested for its infectivity (Table A). The virus is highly stable at 4°C, but sensitive to heat. At 4°C, there was only ∼0.7-log unit reduction of infectious titre on Day 14. With the incubation temperature being increased to 70°C, the time for virus inactivation was reduced to 5 minutes.

We further investigated the stability of this virus on different surfaces. In brief, a 5-µL droplet of virus culture (∼7.8 Log unit of TCID50/mL) was pipetted on a surface (Table B; ∼1cm2 per piece) and left at room temperature (22°C; Relative humidity: ∼65%). The inoculated objects retrieved at desired time points were immediately soaked with 200 µL of VTM for 30 minutes to elute the virus. No infectious virus could be recovered from printing and tissue papers after a 3-hour incubation, whereas no infectious virus could be detected from treated wood and cloth on Day 2. By contrast, SARS-CoV-2 was more stable on smooth surfaces. No infectious virus could be detected from treated smooth surfaces on Day 4 (glass and banknote) or Day 7 (stainless steel and plastic). Strikingly, a significant level of infectious virus could still be detected on the outer layer of a surgical mask on Day 7 (∼0.1% of the original inoculum). Interestingly, a biphasic decay of infectious SARS-CoV-2 could be found from samples recovered from these smooth surfaces (Appendix). Representative negative samples were tested positive by RT-PCR3 (N=39; data not shown), demonstrating that non-infectious viruses could be recovered by the eluents.

We also tested the virucidal effects of disinfectants by adding 15 µL of SARS-CoV-2 culture (∼7.8 Log unit of TCID50/mL) to 135 µL of various disinfectants at working concentration (Table C). With the exception of a 5-min incubation with hand soap, no infectious virus could be detected after a 5-minute incubation at room temperature. In addition, we also found that SARS-CoV-2 is extremely stable in a wide-range of pH values at room temperature (pH3-10; Table D)

Overall, SARS-CoV-2 can be highly stable in a favourable environment4 , but it is also susceptible to standard disinfection methods.

We declare that we have no competing interests. This work was supported by NIADI, NIH (USA) (contract HHSN272201400006C). LLMP was supported by Croucher Foundation.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036673v2.full.pdf
 

maxxevv

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Its has some odd looking " coincidences " in the table for different temperatures.

How do they actually know which duration to start the test for each temperature range to get a starting value that are almost identical ? "6.5" for "Mean" or it was not done fore shorter durations.

It just look odd. Or is there an explanation for the "6.5" in the mathematics somewhere ?
 

Laserjock

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Since most of these viruses seem to come from bats(?), can someone tell me the reason for bats being in proximity of humans?
 

digicidal

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Since most of these viruses seem to come from bats(?), can someone tell me the reason for bats being in proximity of humans?

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/-scene-british-reporters-say-chinese-markets-again/

Learning from our mistakes? Nope! Not even a little bit. :facepalm: (Though hard to test the validity of the article... several sources questionable... however, there are other ways even if the markets are closed).

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...line-china-shuts-markets-200324040543868.html

And other reasons for the proximity...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...by-possible-link-to-coronavirus-idUSKBN2130L9

Possibly part of the reason for this happening...
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...onavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive
 
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Dave Zan

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That is perhaps the scariest post I have seen in this thread.
If avoidance of the blame takes priority over how to fix the problem then the USA is in even deeper trouble than already apparent.
And so is the world economy for sure, and probably other aspects of life around the world.
I don't know what to say, I already wish everyone to stay safe and healthy, what more can I add?
American friends need to be even more careful.

Best wishes
David
 

RayDunzl

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"Lock down the whole country!"

"No, we don't want to do that!"

"Then figure it out yourselves!"

"No we need guidance!"

"International travel restrictions!"

"But my holiday in Italy will be cancelled!"

"Feds Take Over Everything!"

"You're trampling on our rights!"

"Feds Didn't Do Enough!"

"Well they should have!"

---

Jeez.

---

March 9,
RE: St. Patrick's Day Festivities

"Two of the biggest parades in the U.S., however, are still moving forward as planned. Boston and New York still plan to host their events, despite confirmed cases of coronavirus in both cities."

I don't know if they cancelled or not, don't live there.

Result, March 17: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-borough...rs-host-small-march-amid-coronavirus-outbreak
 
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gikigill

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NY had a small party and bars were shut. No St Patrick day party there.

The Feds should have made arrangements for supplies and coordinated a response.

FEMA was snapping up medical supplies and was outbidding states when it came to purchasing medical equipment. Instead of dealing directly with manufacturers on behalf of the entire nation , the Feds were bidding over and above.

Some US manufacturers are even selling supplies overseas since they are getting more money than what FEMA and the states have to offer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/15/coronavirus-mask-shortage-texas-manufacturing/

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200324011253315?section=national/diplomacy

A lot of the states didn't implement any lockdown despite the ongoing crisis, Florida being one of them but Mississippi and Louisiana and some Mega churches are giving everyone else a run for their money as to how many people they can get in a church.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/03/31/ron-desantis-continues-to-resist-a-florida-shutdown/

https://www.myjournalcourier.com/ne...pastor-says-he-ll-keep-violating-15169615.php

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-clai...theyre-asking-i-dont-believe-you-need-1494599

The DPA has been invoked but not implemented. I cannot think of a single reason why US manufacturers cannot be made to participate in a war level effort to go all in
 
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” Anders Bjorkman, a leading epidemiologist who spent years at the forefront of malaria research, challenges the model used by researchers at Imperial College London, which estimated that about 1 per cent of those who contracted the virus would die. He argues that the estimate is misleading as it does not include those with the virus who exhibit no symptoms.

“They say there’s 1 per cent mortality. That’s not true. They completely discard the asymptomatics,” he said. “In all these groups there are some who don’t have symptoms and aren’t reported. In Sweden the average age of all reported corona cases is 56 years roughly. The average age of the population is 40 … and I believe that all age groups have been more or less equally exposed. Among the younger population, those under 40, there are so many non-symptomatics.”

The death rate in Sweden, he said, was likely to be closer to 0.1 per cent than 1 per cent. Hundreds, rather than tens of thousands, would die before herd immunity was achieved.

The public health agency said that in tests of about 5000 people who had returned to Sweden from visits to Italy, the few hundred that were positive all exhibited mild symptoms — implying that there could be a large number of people in Sweden who are asymptomatic — with mild or no symptoms — who have not sought medical treatment.”

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/wo...y/news-story/ad3f99bac495e72475e0cd1cfd6663aa
 

BDWoody

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If you take out NY and NJ...the rest of the country is on a very different track than they are, which hopefully shows what (most of us) want it to show.

IMG_20200401_043047.jpg


Course, NY and NJ were a little late on the lockdown thing, but it looks like the national social distancing measures are having an effect.

If the rest follow their trend lines...and NY and NJ get under control over what's looking like a pretty rough couple of weeks, maybe we can get to the other side of this.

Hard to think of 'only 100,000 deaths' predicted under the best case current modeling as being a success...but that's where it is.
 

BDWoody

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When it comes to stats, I,m trying to be more on the safer side of things and going with the worst case scenario.

I'm going with trying to understand them as best I can, not to put them in the worst possible light...although that is good sport.
 

gikigill

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If you take out NY and NJ...the rest of the country is on a very different track than they are, which hopefully shows what (most of us) want it to show.

View attachment 56660

Course, NY and NJ were a little late on the lockdown thing, but it looks like the national social distancing measures are having an effect.

If the rest follow their trend lines...and NY and NJ get under control over what's looking like a pretty rough couple of weeks, maybe we can get to the other side of this.

Hard to think of 'only 100,000 deaths' predicted under the best case current modeling as being a success...but that's where it is.

Something tells me that Florida, LA, MS and a few others are sitting on a timebomb. Your state thankfully has been on top of things and the Governor has been a total boss and keeping a tight leash and so is KY while UT in all its infinite wisdom has decided to cut Health workers salaries.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/30/intermountain-is-cutting/

https://www.newsweek.com/utah-medical-provider-pay-cuts-coronavirus-pandemic-1495247
 

gikigill

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I'm going with trying to understand them as best I can, not to put them in the worst possible light...although that is good sport.

I would rather be wrong and come over prepared and have fewer dead people. Its like hunting with a .50 cal, overkill but highly effective.

Our state Premier has managed to keep infections at under 1000 and next door NSW has twice that despite similar populations.

He was criticised for his ham handed tactics and banning recreation only gun licenses for a few months but he is turning out to be right and I have a dog in this fight because while my council has a low rate of infections, the 5 immediate councils surrounding me are in the top 10 in infections in my state. Glen Eira, Boorondara, Stonnington, Banyule and Port Phillip are covering me from all sides within a radius of 20 or so km.
 

RayDunzl

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maxxevv

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Something tells me that Florida, LA, MS and a few others are sitting on a timebomb. Your state thankfully has been on top of things and the Governor has been a total boss and keeping a tight leash and so is KY while UT in all its infinite wisdom has decided to cut Health workers salaries.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/30/intermountain-is-cutting/

https://www.newsweek.com/utah-medical-provider-pay-cuts-coronavirus-pandemic-1495247

The low rates of testing is likely hiding the population of infections be they asymptomatic or mild. I'm expecting Florida and California to surge unless they ramp up their testing numbers and isolate the infected since lockdowns don't go down well in the US.
 

BDWoody

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Something tells me that Florida, LA, MS and a few others are sitting on a timebomb. Your state thankfully has been on top of things and the Governor has been a total boss and keeping a tight leash and so is KY while UT in all its infinite wisdom has decided to cut Health workers salaries.

You do have to shake your head at times...that's for sure. That's in the 'WTF is wrong with you category.'

The States you mention and others will surely see some scary numbers...question is how effective these last 2 weeks have been to keep them from going full nuclear.

If those overall trend lines for the other states stay as low as the curves indicate, that should free up a mountain of resources to be available for the places that need them. When the governor's aren't sure if they are the next NY, they aren't sending anything anywhere...

FEMA needed to be involved a lot earlier in a central role.
 
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