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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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raistlin65

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The world is about to find out how reliant it is on China.
I think most people don't have a grasp of the global economy to recognize what would happen if the world's 2nd largest economy shuts down for 6 months. It's not just retail goods, but all of the global manufacturing that depends on Chinese components will be greatly impacted. For example, the audio industry would severely suffer.

And then if commerce is shut down in China, they aren't going to be buying goods either.

It would be catastrophic. Couple that with coronavirus getting out in other countries, and best to be ready for a far worse ride than the last recession.
 

beefkabob

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My wife's sister and family are locked in their home 24/7, and they're not even in the same province. Jobs shut down. Not good.
 

Ron Texas

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I think most people don't have a grasp of the global economy to recognize what would happen if the world's 2nd largest economy shuts down for 6 months. It's not just retail goods, but all of the global manufacturing that depends on Chinese components will be greatly impacted. For example, the audio industry would severely suffer.

And then if commerce is shut down in China, they aren't going to be buying goods either.

It would be catastrophic. Couple that with coronavirus getting out in other countries, and best to be ready for a far worse ride than the last recession.
It's way too early to predict a repeat of 2008. US equity markets are not showing strain, but are poised for a 10% correction. China exports a lot more than it imports by dollar value so the loss of business will not be severe in the US. Multinational companies are nimble and have the ability to restore supply chains for things like auto parts. Definitely companies like B&W and KEF which rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing will be impacted.

The real threat is if there is worst case rapid spread of the virus with billions sick and millions dead. Again, those most likely to die are elderly who are not in the working population.

As of 3 hours ago:

Beijing orders residents returning to the city to self-quarantine for 14 days.”

Source: Beijing Daily Client.

Beijing has a population of 21 million.
For comparison, that’s the population of Australia.
Thank you. Much news from inside China isn't being reported on major US news outlets. Those who know Chinese are a major resource in this regard. A lot of the news in the US is dominated by other things, but I won't mention the word.
 

sweetchaos

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CDC Recommends Also Wearing Face Mask On Back Of Head In Case Coronavirus Attacks From Rear

As documented cases of the disease increased and more Americans wanted to take proactive measures to avoid infection, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reportedly recommended Thursday also wearing a face mask on the back of one’s head in case the coronavirus attacks from the rear.
more here
This is Fake news. “The Onion” is a parody site. I don’t know why this site still exists, as many people get fooled into believing this site is real.
 
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raistlin65

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It's way too early to predict a repeat of 2008. US equity markets are not showing strain, but are poised for a 10% correction. China exports a lot more than it imports by dollar value so the loss of business will not be severe in the US. Multinational companies are nimble and have the ability to restore supply chains for things like auto parts. Definitely companies like B&W and KEF which rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing will be impacted.
If a US manufacturer relies on one Chinese component out of 50 they use to build their product, a component for which there is no substitute, they can't make their product. Or if there are substitutes, scarcity may kick in creating higher prices.

And you have a net dollar trade surplus/deficit way of looking at things. If China largely stops buying from the US, there are not necessarily other buyers that will purchase US products, or certainly not at the same prices. Look what happened to US agriculture with the Chinese tarriffs. It has not been pretty.

Finally, US indicators do look pretty good for the next year based on projections. But some analysts will tell you that many stocks in the market are overpriced. Anyone who can read P/Es can tell that. The stock market's success isn't based on economic fundamentals, it's based on confidence. For example, if Apple tells you that iPhone production is shut down in Shenzen, that's not going to be great for Apple's stock. Have bad things happen to a significant percentage of S&P 500 companies, and then complicate it with coronavirus spread in the US, and the market could easily flip into a bear market.
 

Ron Texas

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If a US manufacturer relies on one Chinese component out of 50 they use to build their product, a component for which there is no substitute, they can't make their product. Or if there are substitutes, scarcity may kick in creating higher prices.

The key is "no substitute". In the auto sector so far only Hundai and Nissan are reporting problems. Due to the recent tariff dispute a lot of companies have been working on alternate supply chains. Higher prices are a distinct possibility. It's still to early to make predictions of a catastrophe.
 

g29

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Funeral Homes in China's Wuhan 'Working 24/7 to Cremate Bodies'

Month's salary being offered for 8 hours of work.

The Wuchang Funeral Home in Wuhan, capital of Hubei province, recently advertised for 20 new members of staff to man a four-hour night shift collecting bodies from their homes.

An advertisement seen by RFA offered 4,000 yuan (U.S.$572) for four hours' work. The average monthly salary for city-dwellers in China is around 8,452 yuan (U.S.$1,228.38).

The ad calls for applicants aged 16-50 years old, regardless of gender, with "bold and strong" personalities who have no fear of ghosts.

Shifts will run from 4.00 p.m. to 4.00 a.m. daily, with the option of earning up to 8,000 yuan a night.
 

raistlin65

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The key is "no substitute". In the auto sector so far only Hundai and Nissan are reporting problems. Due to the recent tariff dispute a lot of companies have been working on alternate supply chains. Higher prices are a distinct possibility. It's still to early to make predictions of a catastrophe.
US companies are still buying Chinese goods, despite the tariffs. Walmart and other retailers still stock lots of Chinese goods (Walmart's shelves would look empty without them). Countries other than the US depend on Chinese goods for consumer use and manufacturing.

It is naive to think that if Chinese exports and imports slow to trickle for six months that it won't have a devastating effect on the world economy. It's too much of world total trade. That view represents the same overconfidence in American markets which is currently fueling stock prices, and that confidence is easily shattered.
 

Ron Texas

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It is naive to think that if Chinese exports and imports slow to trickle for six months that it won't have a devastating effect on the world economy. It's too much of world total trade. That view represents the same overconfidence in American markets which is currently fueling stock prices, and that confidence is easily shattered.
Are you calling me naive because I disagree with you? Can't we just disagree politely? You are exaggerating. Perhaps you would feel better after a trip to Walmart to stock up.
 

vitalii427

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MWC 2020 was cancelled due to coronavirus

https://www.mwcbarcelona.com/

GSMA STATEMENT ON MWC 2020

12 February 2020, Barcelona: Since the first edition of Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in 2006, the GSMA has convened the industry, governments, ministers, policymakers, operators and industry leaders across the broader ecosystem.

With due regard to the safe and healthy environment in Barcelona and the host country today, the GSMA has cancelled MWC Barcelona 2020 because the global concern regarding the coronavirus outbreak, travel concern and other circumstances, make it impossible for the GSMA to hold the event.

The Host City Parties respect and understand this decision.

The GSMA and the Host City Parties will continue to be working in unison and supporting each other for MWC Barcelona 2021 and future editions.

Our sympathies at this time are with those affected in China, and all around the world.
 

gikigill

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The saga continues...another "martial law exercise" as of 1 hour ago:

View attachment 50129

Yunmeng County (wiki), is a county in eastern Hubei province. It has a population of 524,799 (as of 2010).

Interesting enough...I'm not seeing anyone else reporting these.
I checked CNN (US), CBC (Canada) and ABC (Australia) and no one is even mentioning these.
ABC News has been reporting these:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...china-6.5-per-cent-worlds-population/11968114

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-25/wuhan-coronavirus-lockdown-how-has-it-worked/11896630 (20 day old article)

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/shanghai-in-lockdown-over-coronavirus/11929726

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/virus-fears-halt-china-going-back-to-work/11952650
 

gikigill

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US companies are still buying Chinese goods, despite the tariffs. Walmart and other retailers still stock lots of Chinese goods (Walmart's shelves would look empty without them). Countries other than the US depend on Chinese goods for consumer use and manufacturing.

It is naive to think that if Chinese exports and imports slow to trickle for six months that it won't have a devastating effect on the world economy. It's too much of world total trade. That view represents the same overconfidence in American markets which is currently fueling stock prices, and that confidence is easily shattered.
Forget consumer goods, the supply chain disruption is where it gets serious. Your Made in USA/Europe DAC has parts made in China and getting a local supplier to come up with a repalcement will take years and cost money.
 

sweetchaos

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Thanks for the links. I found this quote particularly interesting:
As of Friday (2020-02-14), at least 48 cities and four provinces in China have issued official notices for lockdown policies, with measures ranging from "closed-off management", where residents of a community have to be registered before they are allowed in or out, to restrictions that shut down highways, railways and public transport systems.
UPDATE: Found the source of this information. (Reuters)
 
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sweetchaos

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Reuters is now tracking now many people are affected by the "lockdowns":

Link

1581722574650.png

1581722941757.png


Overall?
PARTIAL OR FULL (1st photo) lockdown =>Estimated at 500 million => That's more population than US (for comparison).
FULL (2nd photo) lockdown =>Estimated at 76.94 million => That's close to population of UK or Germany (for comparison).
 
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raistlin65

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Are you calling me naive because I disagree with you? Can't we just disagree politely? You are exaggerating. Perhaps you would feel better after a trip to Walmart to stock up.
Would you prefer the term myopic thinking? A 15% reduction in world trade is not a zero-sum game where the only impact is the difference between the imports and exports. It would have cascading effects. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a group of economists that would not agree with me.
 

Ron Texas

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Would you prefer the term myopic thinking? A 15% reduction in world trade is not a zero-sum game where the only impact is the difference between the imports and exports. It would have cascading effects. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a group of economists that would not agree with me.
Why don't you stop with the name calling and find a group of economists who are predicting a 15% reduction in world trade. So far only a 2% reduction in daily crude oil consumption is predicted.
 
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