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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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raistlin65

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Why don't you stop with the name calling and find a group of economists who are predicting a 15% reduction in world trade. So far only a 2% reduction in daily crude oil consumption is predicted.
15% reduction in world trade is an estimate of what would happen if the Chinese shut down most of their export and import business due to the coronavirus. And I never claimed that economists are currently factoring that into their economic forecasts???
 

g29

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The floating petri dish is approaching 10% infection spread within 1 month. The Diamond Princess set sail on January 20th.
  • The 67 new cases bring the number of infections on board the cruise ship to 285 (up from 174 four days prior)
  • The US initially said it would send a chartered flight to evacuate some 380 citizens on board, but Japan later said it would not be happening

Coronavirus: 67 new infections on Diamond Princess confirmed
 
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Ron Texas

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The floating petri dish is approaching 10% infection spread within 1 month.
  • The new cases bring the number of infections on board the cruise ship to 285
  • The US initially said it would send a chartered flight to evacuate some 380 citizens on board, but Japan later said it would not be happening

Coronavirus: 67 new infections on Diamond Princess confirmed
I wonder how long it was from the first confirmed case until everyone was put under quarantine. The Japanese should have gotten their people into an onshore quarantine soon after the ship docked. The "not happening" headline may be misleading. A chartered aircraft is supposed to land tomorrow, but the departure date is uncertain.

My overall take is the situation is incremental. Different parts get worse here and there every day. Nobody knows what will happen next.

@Wes could you provide some details on supply chain disruptions? My research is the main problems are within China. Elsewhere manufacturers are adapting to the loss of Chinese made components. One article from last week indicated there were already adjustments to supply chains due to the tariff dispute.

The world isn't ending, yet.
 
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Wes

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I don't have a NYT access anymore but saw it as a headline in today's paper edition. Didn't read the article tho.
 

RayDunzl

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The mortality rate is much higher than 2%. Those who die now have been sick for a while when the number of infected was much smaller. I'm willing to say it's around 10%.
How about mortality vs recovered?

1527/8582 = 17.8%

Let's see how that changes.
 

Ron Texas

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That's a great article.

"In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined. " This is exactly what I have been saying.

Estimates in the article vary all the way from 2.2% (flawed) to 15%. I don't know what is correct.

"At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present. "

I hope I know what "impossible" means.

How about mortality vs recovered?

1527/8582 = 17.8%

Let's see how that changes.
The article gives this formula: CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered) 1,527 / (1,527 + 8,608) = 15% CFR (worldwide)
 

Ron Texas

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Just a few random thoughts on the current epidemic:

A senior official of an Indian drug manufacturer (many generic and brand name drugs are manufactured in India and shipped to many countries) recently commented that since China produces significant quantities of raw materials for drug manufacture, the current outbreak in China will impact the supply chain of drug product to market in the near future.

Attempts to make a semi-reliable estimate on the fatality rate of this epidemic at this juncture is futile. I think the numbers gave out by CDC on the yearly impact of flu (number of death related to the infections caused by the flu virus) is a good reference point. Based on all the numbers currently available (relaible or not), the fatality rate of this virus appears to be lower than that of SARS and MERS, and significantly less than that of Ebola. Until the dust settled, we will not have any reliable information.

The Diamond Princess case is a real fiasco. Japan does not know how to handle the situation. Therefore, the Japanese official just keep the passengers and staffs on the ship. All the people locked down on the ship are likely suffering from cross-infection. The environment on the ship is not appropriate for quarantine. The ship is now a big incubator for the virus and humans are the medium. I suspected some of the people got infected after the locked down. And I believe if the lock down continues, more and more people will be infected. A real sad case of mis-handling.
New viruses popped up every year (viruses "evolve" by mutation). Once in a while, one of these new ones will hurt us. Some people will die (just like in a natural disaster such as earth quake, tornado, Tsunami, hurricane etc.). This will not be the last epidemic we see. There will be more to come, as have seen from history. We just have to learn how to deal with it.
 

mi-fu

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Just a few random thoughts on the current epidemic:

A senior official of an Indian drug manufacturer (many generic and brand name drugs are manufactured in India and shipped to many countries) recently commented that since China produces significant quantities of raw materials for drug manufacture, the current outbreak in China will impact the supply chain of drug product to market in the near future.

Attempts to make a semi-reliable estimate on the fatality rate of this epidemic at this juncture is futile. I think the numbers gave out by CDC on the yearly impact of flu (number of death related to the infections caused by the flu virus) is a good reference point. Based on all the numbers currently available (relaible or not), the fatality rate of this virus appears to be lower than that of SARS and MERS, and significantly less than that of Ebola. Until the dust settled, we will not have any reliable information.

The Diamond Princess case is a real fiasco. Japan does not know how to handle the situation. Therefore, the Japanese official just keep the passengers and staffs on the ship. All the people locked down on the ship are likely suffering from cross-infection. The environment on the ship is not appropriate for quarantine. The ship is now a big incubator for the virus and humans are the medium. I suspected some of the people got infected after the locked down. And I believe if the lock down continues, more and more people will be infected. A real sad case of mis-handling.
New viruses popped up every year (viruses "evolve" by mutation). Once in a while, one of these new ones will hurt us. Some people will die (just like in a natural disaster such as earth quake, tornado, Tsunami, hurricane etc.). This will not be the last epidemic we see. There will be more to come, as have seen from history. We just have to learn how to deal with it.
Good analysis.

What do you make of the lockdown in Wuhan? To me, it is almost like a gigantic version of the Diamond Princess case, particularly with the hundreds of thousands of people not receiving proper medical treatment. While I understand that the Chinese government's intention to contain the virus, I am just not sure whether it is a good way to handle it.
 

sweetchaos

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After disembarking in Cambodia a passenger in her 80's became ill upon reaching the airport in KL. She tested positive. So what happens next with the thousands of passengers who were on that ship and have scattered all over the world by now?
BBC Reporter, said 45min ago:
#Cambodia cruise ship disembarkation has stopped after a woman who’d been onboard has now tested positive to the #coronavirus in #Malaysia. Passengers already on land to be quarantined.
 

g29

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The floating petri dish is approaching 10% infection spread within 1 month. The Diamond Princess set sail on January 20th.
  • The 67 new cases bring the number of infections on board the cruise ship to 285 (up from 174 four days prior)
  • The US initially said it would send a chartered flight to evacuate some 380 citizens on board, but Japan later said it would not be happening

Coronavirus: 67 new infections on Diamond Princess confirmed
A further 70 people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined in Japan have tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total to 355 (out of 3,770 passengers and crew).

Coronavirus: 70 more cases on Japan cruise ship as China infections pass 68,000
 

RayDunzl

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Good analysis.

What do you make of the lockdown in Wuhan? To me, it is almost like a gigantic version of the Diamond Princess case, particularly with the hundreds of thousands of people not receiving proper medical treatment. While I understand that the Chinese government's intention to contain the virus, I am just not sure whether it is a good way to handle it.
I understand your point of view. For such a large scale epidemic, quarantine is the only effective way to slow or stop the spread since there are no effective medicines (drugs or vaccines) to treat the patients. In Wuhan, my personal opinion is that there are sufficient space to separate inffected and uninfected subjects, unlike the situation on the cruise ship where prople are packed together. When the movement of people is stopped, spreading will stop. And since Wuhan is the "epicenter" of this epidemic, the government can focus a large part their effort in this area. Imagine if there were no lock down, everyone from Wuhan would have fled to every corner of the earth, and we know what will be the results.

Let's be realistic, when a natural disaster strikes, there are really no good way to cover all angles and help everyone. Let's hope the governments will learn from it. Studies showed that most countries have not spent much in preventing and managing public health disasters like this after SARS. Bill Gates' foundation has be a strong advocate for better public health management for a while and have donated money towards this cause. .

Regards,
 

maxxevv

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I understand your point of view. For such a large scale epidemic, quarantine is the only effective way to slow or stop the spread since there are no effective medicines (drugs or vaccines) to treat the patients. In Wuhan, my personal opinion is that there are sufficient space to separate inffected and uninfected subjects, unlike the situation on the cruise ship where prople are packed together. When the movement of people is stopped, spreading will stop. And since Wuhan is the "epicenter" of this epidemic, the government can focus a large part their effort in this area. Imagine if there were no lock down, everyone from Wuhan would have fled to every corner of the earth, and we know what will be the results.

Let's be realistic, when a natural disaster strikes, there are really no good way to cover all angles and help everyone. Let's hope the governments will learn from it. Studies showed that most countries have not spent much in preventing and managing public health disasters like this after SARS. Bill Gates' foundation has be a strong advocate for better public health management for a while and have donated money towards this cause. .

Regards,
Agreed, its probably the only way to effectively stem propagation of such a disease that has no effective direct treatment/cure.

Epidemics / Pandemics are inevitable in a densely populated environment, anywhere. Its not a matter of "ÏF" , its really just where and when.

From another perspective, the world should be glad that something like this actually is in China rather than in any other well connected city in the world, like what happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic.

I highly doubt if there's any other country's government that has the overarching authority and resources at hand to pull off all the things they have put in place to fight this contagion to date.

Let's hope for a quick stabilization of the situation over the next 2~3 weeks so that the virus can die out sooner.
 
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