What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[maty]

Chinese Students Fleeing Virus-Hit U.S. Pay $20,000 for Seats on Private Jets
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/202...euters-health-coronavirus-china-students.html

 

[maty]

Coronavirus latest: The outbreak in Italy went undetected for weeks
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w

[ The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was in Northern Italy as early as 1 January.

An epidemiological analysis of Lombardy, the epicentre of the outbreak in Italy, reveals that the first onset of symptoms in the country occurred weeks before the disease was reported there on 20 February. The study looks at nearly 6,000 laboratory-confirmed cases to track how the outbreak unfolded in the region. It was posted to the arXiv preprint server on 20 March.

The undetected spread in January is “very striking”, says Michele Tizzoni, an infectious disease modeller at the ISI Foundation in Turin, Italy, who was not involved in the work. “At that time we were probably still talking about Wuhan.” ]

 

[maty]

Últimas noticias del coronavirus, en directo | España, con 3.434 fallecidos, adelanta a China en número de víctimas y ya es el segundo país del mundo tras Italia
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/noticias-y-ultima-hora-del-coronavirus-en-directo.html

Latest news of coronavirus, live Spain, with 3,434 deaths, overtakes China in death toll and is already the second country in the world after Italy
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/noticias-y-ultima-hora-del-coronavirus-en-directo.html

[ Spain is already the second country in the world with the most victims of coronavirus, behind only Italy. With 3,434 dead, according to the latest balance offered on Wednesday by the Ministry of Health, Spain overtakes China, where the epidemic originated and has 3,287, while Italy, with at least 6,820, is well ahead. In just 24 hours, Spain has added 738 new victims, 27% more than yesterday.

Health reports that 47,610 people have become infected, an increase of 20%, when 7,937 new infected people joined in one day. In addition, 3,166 people are in the ICU and 5,367 have been discharged... ]

 

[vert]

Raoult's protocol

· Pour tous les patients infectés, dont un grand nombre peu symptomatiques ont des lésions pulmonaires au scanner, de proposer au plus tôt de la maladie, dès le diagnostic :
– un traitement par l’association hydroxychloroquine (200 mg x 3 par jour pour 10 jours) + Azithromycine (500 mg le 1er jour puis 250 mg par jour pour 5 jours de plus), dans le cadre des précautions d’usage de cette association (avec notamment un électrocardiogramme à J0 et J2), et hors AMM. Dans les cas de pneumonie sévère, un antibiotique à large spectre est également associé.

So, for all infected patients, symptomatic or not (unless you want to scan them all), immediately hydroxycholoroquine + azithromycine, with the "usual precautions" which include, among other things, two ECGs. Add large specter antibiotics if severe pneumonia is diagnosed (Rx/scanner).

While it may be the best therapeutic option (we'll know soon enough, or at least, very much faster than we have ever known anything in that field), it isn't especially easy to deploy at a large scale and it is very far from what the public does with chloroquine right now (when they take the correct form ).

Raoult may be totally correct, and I would be extremely happy if he is, but the issue is far from simple.

Bottom line: in crisis situations, everyone yells at everyone for every reason. Everyone has its favorite conspiracy theory.
Here's what the "pro" summary said here (2018, took a pre Corona edition). The QT issue is why ECGs are required. Full blood panels as well.
The "R" at the right after the dose and before the price means that it is available on prescription only. Remember, this is pre-corona, outside of Buzin jurisdiction, not linked to any potential conspiracy back then.

If you give hydroxychloroquine to 60 millions, or if 60 millions start to automedicate just in case, rest assured that "rare" complications will become an severe issue. And don't forget to start hoarding those ECG machines and queue to get your regular full blood panels...

View attachment 55688

For sure, but to be clear I'm not sure testing the whole French population [60 million] was advocated by Prof. Raoult, rather testing on a large scale. By contrast the French government said testing was useless, and as a result 20x less tests were performed compared to say, Germany. As to self-medication, Raoult clearly said it shouldn't be done. It can be mentioned however that chloroquine is used massively to this day in some malaria-prone, typically poor countries where medical supervision is likely to be far less extensive. Yes it's not as easy as it sounds, but there already is an example: South Korea. Or is it that the French authorities think they are smarter than their South Korean counterparts?

 

[Shadrach]

For sure, but to be clear I'm not sure testing the whole French population [60 million] was advocated by Prof. Raoult, rather testing on a large scale. By contrast the French government said testing was useless, and as a result 20x less tests were performed compared to say, Germany. As to self-medication, Raoult clearly said it shouldn't be done. It can be mentioned however that chloroquine is used massively to this day in some malaria-prone, typically poor countries where medical supervision is likely to be far less extensive. Yes it's not as easy as it sounds, but there already is an example: South Korea. Or is it that the French authorities think they are smarter than their South Korean counterparts?

I think, although this is purely my opinion, that at some point one of the large pharmaceutical concerns will suddenly announce they have a cure.
Naturaly they will demand vast amounnts of money for the drug and in the hysteria people will pay without realising that the drug has been available at next to no cost for many years.
But, I'm a cynic..........

 

[DuxServit]

An article that made a splash locally and beyond
http://jdmichel.blog.tdg.ch/archive/2020/03/24/covid-19-the-game-is-over-305275.html
and a bombshell follow-up (not translated yet) giving the broader perspective on the crisis, "how bad science became a religion"
http://jdmichel.blog.tdg.ch/archive...la-mauvaise-science-est-devenue-u-305255.html

This is a good read, thanks @vert

If there is a translation into English of the 2nd article, please post it.

 

[Thomas savage]

Waffle House closed in the USA. That's a bad sign.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index

This waffle house remains open ..

Construction (some large scale public projects like hinkley point nuclear power plant etc continues ) has shut down in the uk , mostly on the initiative of the national building firms and contractors as government did not show very good leadership to the industry.

What's happening in Spain and Madrid in particular is genuinely frightening as is the situation in Italy.

There's a few places where things look like they might be turning for the better but far more where things are heading in a more worrying direction.

Take care all !

 

[maty]

It is believed that we are about to reach the peak of infection in Spain. It seems to confirm that Madrid is already down. In other regions it started later and there will be a few more days.

It is assumed that for the weekend there will be certainty about it. The problem will now be in hospitals, more specifically in ICUs, due to the necessary days of hospitalization for the most serious cases and the lack of resources.

Therefore the "Spanish-style" quarantine is working. Maybe if it were a little stricter everything would happen sooner but the economic damage would be greater. It should not be easy to decide about it, it takes a few days to confirm or not the overcoming of the peak.

On Friday and Tuesday there is a Council of Ministers. Presumably if more restrictions are needed they will be approved next Tuesday.

 

[HemiRick]

I just got back from my local Walmart, no meat except some ham, no pasta, very little bread, no toliet paper. The store is essentially wiped out. Waffle house here are closed. Here is Memphis TN...

 

[kokishin]

I hope it's ok to post something humorous. I am not taking the corona virus lightly as Mrs K and I are currently under a shelter-at-home legal order for Santa Clara County CA and I'm taking that very seriously.

Social distancing applied to iconic album covers:

Source: https://www.designboom.com/design/s...-the-beatles-abbey-road-activista-03-24-2020/

 

[Shadrach]

I've read a lot about flattening the curve. It seems that some do not really understand how this works.
Flattening the curve is trying to spread the burden on the health sevice by trickle feeding the sick through the sytem rather than dumping the lot on the system in a short period of time.
The burden is an unknown quantity, a variable, while a health services capacity is fixed to a greater, or lesser extent.
Should the burden, the unknown quantity, exceed the capacity at any point the strategy fails.
It gets more complicated.
There is a regular burden; the normal sicknesses that a health system has to deal with under normal conditions. This doesn't seem to be factored into the current strategy. There isn't much extra capacity in most health systems so in times of high demand the system is bound to fail.
Neither of these two involved in this political dispute seem to have grasped this.
The time for a total lockdown is long past. The curve flattening isn't working because the system doesn't have the capacity.
China seemed to understand this from the outset. Most of the European countries haven't nor has the USA or UK.


https://www.catalannews.com/politic...onal-measures-maybe-until-june-if-no-lockdown

 

[maty]

I just got back from my local Walmart, no meat except some ham, no pasta, very little bread, no toliet paper. The store is essentially wiped out. Waffle house here are closed. Here is Memphis TN...

Easy explanation: in USA the fridges are bigger than in Spain and have more space to store fresh and frozen food. Houses (and mortgages) too. The more space, the greater the possibility of accumulating. In addition Hollywood produces many films about an apocalyptic future

Of course, everyday life will change for a long time, at least until we are all vaccinated. In the meantime, individuals will have to be monitored through mobile phones as they are in China, to ensure that whoever goes out on the street is healthy.

Because of the irresponsible few or many we will have restrictions on our privacy. What to avoid is that it be permanent. Thanks to those in Italy the quarantine has not been effective until now. I am afraid it will happen in many more countries.

 

[maty]

Una jueza abre la vía penal contra el Gobierno por no prohibir el 8M ante el virus
[Spanish] https://www.elconfidencial.com/espa...-prevaricacion-por-no-prohibir-el-8m_2517591/

A judge opens the criminal route against the Government for not banning the 8M against the virus
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?re...-prevaricacion-por-no-prohibir-el-8m_2517591/

[ The holder of the court of Instruction number 51 of Madrid, Carmen Rodríguez-Medel, has opened the first criminal route against the central government for the holding of mass demonstrations, such as that of the 8M, in the days before the alarm state was declared. After receiving by decanato distribution, last Friday, March 20, the complaint of an individual against the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, and against all the delegates of government of the different autonomous communities, the magistrate has filed exclusive pre-proceedings regarding the delegate of the Government of Madrid,José Manuel Franco, the only one over which he has competence... ]

 

[BDWoody]

https://www.latimes.com/science/sto...fKluAi-8oO1WilEw9nKanFg_XzSlKF5UE8HA83YkHQs-A

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”
...

Such a wide range of views from lots of smart people.

 

[Willem]

We need data. In the Netherlands the modellers at the National Institute of Public Health believe that they are seeing the first faint indicatons that thanks to the policy of social isolation the rate of subsequent infection is now dropping to just below 1.

 

[Putter]

I hope it's ok to post something humorous. I am not taking the corona virus lightly as Mrs K and I are currently under a shelter-at-home legal order for Santa Clara County CA and I'm taking that very seriously.

Social distancing applied to iconic album covers:

Source: https://www.designboom.com/design/s...-the-beatles-abbey-road-activista-03-24-2020/

I have to say that some covers looked better with 'social distancing' like the U2 cover which focuses correctly on Bono as the leader of the group.

 

[Willem]

The bad news is that the demand for icu facilities is rising rapidly. Can the system handle this until the curve does indeed flatten?

 

[Soniclife]

I've read a lot about flattening the curve. It seems that some do not really understand how this works.
Flattening the curve is trying to spread the burden on the health sevice by trickle feeding the sick through the sytem rather than dumping the lot on the system in a short period of time.
The burden is an unknown quantity, a variable, while a health services capacity is fixed to a greater, or lesser extent.
Should the burden, the unknown quantity, exceed the capacity at any point the strategy fails.
It gets more complicated.
There is a regular burden; the normal sicknesses that a health system has to deal with under normal conditions. This doesn't seem to be factored into the current strategy. There isn't much extra capacity in most health systems so in times of high demand the system is bound to fail.
Neither of these two involved in this political dispute seem to have grasped this.
The time for a total lockdown is long past. The curve flattening isn't working because the system doesn't have the capacity.
China seemed to understand this from the outset. Most of the European countries haven't nor has the USA or UK.


https://www.catalannews.com/politic...onal-measures-maybe-until-june-if-no-lockdown

The NHS will cope apparently, I'm sceptical.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52035615

 

[Soniclife]

Prince Charles tests positive but 'remains in good health'

In other UK news.

Off-licences added to list of 'essential' retailers

Off-licences have been added to the government's list of essential UK retailers allowed to stay open during the coronavirus pandemic.
The list was updated on Wednesday amid increasing reports of supermarkets are selling out some beers and wines.

Maybe it is time to panic

 

[Willem]

Boris Johnson finally got his head screwed together again.