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[Blumlein 88]

This ties into the concept of oil & gas reserves. As science & technology advances it enables us to economically extract what previously was perhaps known yet not economically usable. This goes a long way in explaining why prices have been more or less flat for decades despite this resource being finite and inherently consumable. It is likely that what eventually stops us from consuming oil is not running out of it, but understanding the consequences and pricing them so that alternatives become viable.

This reminds me of something my 8th grade science teacher told us. There is no energy crisis or shortage. Energy is all around us, the universe, the sun, and even our planet has more energy than we could ever want or use. The crisis or shortage is all about our ability to economically harness this energy and put it use.

Yes, it is a complicated thing. I'm not saying we'll never have enough or never figure it out. I do think a ramp up to near BEV only in the next decade is probably a stretch to make happen. Yet if we believe the makers that is what path nearly all of them are on.

Historically humans as they have advanced in technology have used ever more compact high energy density sources. The highest density currently being nuclear reactors. Solar and wind are a step in the opposite direction to an energy source more diffuse and low density.

What is the other cliche, the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

 

[JeffS7444]

My screaming flat plane V8 with 6-speed manual is great fun

As an F1 guy, I thought you'd surely have gone with a dual-clutch transmission?

but I hardly ever use it.

I'm sure the next owner will appreciate that, but it seems like a crying shame not to drive the crap out of it. I'd think much of the associated carbon emissions happened during the manufacturing process.

IMO, the beauty of classic and enthusiast automobiles is that the rebuild/repair/make-it-last ethos tends to come automatically.

 

[JJB70]

At the risk of sounding cynical, people have been predicting "carmaggedon" all my life as result of the imminent depletion of oil and consequent collapse of society etc. Actually the RP ratio has steadily increased over most of my life and it is far more likely oil and gas reserves will be written down because we're not allowed to use them rather than us running out. And that's without considering reforming, synthetic fuels etc.

 

[JeffS7444]

At the risk of sounding cynical, people have been predicting "carmaggedon" all my life as result of the imminent depletion of oil and consequent collapse of society etc. Actually the RP ratio has steadily increased over most of my life and it is far more likely oil and gas reserves will be written down because we're not allowed to use them rather than us running out. And that's without considering reforming, synthetic fuels etc.

My understanding is that availability of fossil fuels is just fine, but much is costly to extract because it's in the form of tarry substances or in hard to reach locations. I figure that technologies like hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") should be allowed as long as rich and poor alike share the burdens - no NIMBYing out.

 

[Jim Matthews]

IMO, the beauty of classic and enthusiast automobiles is that the rebuild/repair/make-it-last ethos tends to come automatically.

Out of necessity, arises lots of swearing while searching for the 10mm socket. I think they are drawn into parallel dimensions by all the missing socks.

 

[Frank Dernie]

Ferrari ??

Yes.
I am going to sell it to go electric.

 

[Frank Dernie]

As an F1 guy, I thought you'd surely have gone with a dual-clutch transmission?

I'm sure the next owner will appreciate that, but it seems like a crying shame not to drive the crap out of it. I'd think much of the associated carbon emissions happened during the manufacturing process.

IMO, the beauty of classic and enthusiast automobiles is that the rebuild/repair/make-it-last ethos tends to come automatically.

I prefer the "purity" of doing it myself.
Having flappy paddle gearboxes means my mum could change gear as well as Ayrton Senna and is one of the reasons (if not the main reason) drivers make fewer errors in dicing resulting in fewer overtakes.
I just never feel like driving it any more so it is time for it to go.
I am going electric.
I will be 80 by the time the battery warranty runs out

I have low hopes for humans solving the energy crisis.

Most of what I hear is like a person diagnosed with curable cancer deciding the treatment would be too expensive and uncomfortable so not having it.

Every time I read about the complete lack of any serious action about climate change I am reminded of the death of Ayrton Senna.
The problem is that the people in power, or at least not enough of them, have little understanding of things technical.
Nothing gets done if it will cost money whatever the expert advice on the analysis of facts. Politicians ignore scientific advice if it doesn't confirm their narrative even when it is fact.
After Nelson Piquet's accident at Tamburello in 1987 I raised the question of circuit modification before somebody got killed at the next FIA meeting I was at. I was told nothing could be done because of the river behind the wall. I raised it with the FIA again after Berger's accident in 1989 and Alboreto's accident in 1991 and got the same response.
Other experts were pushing for a change there too with zero impact.
Senna had to die before the advice was taken seriously. This has always made me very angry.
Now we have the same sort of approach with climate change, how big does the catastrophe have to get before anything other than paying lip service is actually done?
If something had been done when the people who know what they are talking about raised the need for serious action decades ago it would have actually cost less and been more effective.
I don't have high hopes.

 

[Frank Dernie]

At the risk of sounding cynical, people have been predicting "carmaggedon" all my life as result of the imminent depletion of oil and consequent collapse of society etc. Actually the RP ratio has steadily increased over most of my life and it is far more likely oil and gas reserves will be written down because we're not allowed to use them rather than us running out. And that's without considering reforming, synthetic fuels etc.

There is no shortage of cheap fossil fuels, the problem is the catastrophe caused by using them IMO.

 

[JJB70]

There is no shortage of cheap fossil fuels, the problem is the catastrophe caused by using them IMO.

I think it is a good example of the hazards of reducing quite a complex assessment to a simple "more is better" metric which can then be seriously misinterpreted and abused and lead to all sorts of confusion. The predictions of doom have used the RP ratio, without understanding what the RP ratio means or its limitations.
It's one of those funny truths that for all people whinge about the price of oil it is actually cheap and it's low cost has inhibited commercial development of low emission alternatives. It is not that there is no alternative to oil and gas but rather the higher cost of alternatives and development risks have prevented serious efforts to move away from them until recently. People think fuel cells are a new and exotic technology but they have been around since the 19th century. Battery power pre-dates IC engines for some applications. IC engines could have been adapted for alternative fuels such as ammonia, hydrogen and methanol decades ago. However cheap oil meant alternatives weren't commercially viable. Now however the world is being forced away from oil.

 

[Frank Dernie]

However cheap oil meant alternatives weren't commercially viable.

Massive distortion of the real situation was also caused by government subsidy of fossil fuels in many countries.

 

[Jim Matthews]

I prefer the "purity" of doing it myself.

Amen, Reverend. Until my knee gave out I was much the same. There's a satisfaction in "rowing your own" that enthusiasts share.

I once taught a brilliant Cuban physicist how to drive a manual. He was constantly over-revving and grinding gears.

Being musical, I asked him to "Hear the engine sing, and stop watching the tach. " He achieved some smoother shifts in short order.

Every time I read about the complete lack of any serious action about climate change I am reminded of the death of Ayrton Senna.

Senna had to die before the advice was taken seriously. This has always made me very angry.

My condolences. The first to know are rarely in a position to affect change.
Allan McDonald would empathize. Chalmers Johnson wrote the book.

 

[JJB70]

Unfortunately the tombstone imperative is a recurring phenomenon and we never really learn. Naval architects understood that Ro-Ro ferries were a disaster waiting to happen long before the Herald of Free Enterprise and Estonia tragedies. And most countries resisted the North European damage/stability standards adopted by a handful of countries as the Stockholm agreement before IMO agreed SOLAS amendments which entered into force in 2010.
In 1982the Royal Navy learnt a lot about warship construction as well as relearning a lot which were used to improve warship design and construction. Now a lot of those lessons are being pushed aside, usually supported by risk assessments and with naval architects voicing concerns marginalized and criticized for not moving with the times.

 

[Count Arthur]

Massive distortion of the real situation was also caused by government subsidy of fossil fuels in many countries.

3 trillion dollars since 2015: https://www.theguardian.com/environ...fossil-fuels-2015-coal-oil-gas-cliamte-crisis

We could have covered the moon in solar panels for that.

 

[Frank Dernie]

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3 trillion dollars since 2015: https://www.theguardian.com/environ...fossil-fuels-2015-coal-oil-gas-cliamte-crisis

We could have covered the moon in solar panels for that.

Yep it seems most governments are in the pockets of the oil business and politicians getting rich from it

 

[Ken1951]

Yep it seems most governments are in the pockets of the oil business and politicians getting rich from it

Truer words have never been spoken.

 

[JJB70]

It's not just government links to the oil sector. Politicians tend to be weather vanes sensitive to voter demands. And voters generally demand cheap transport and energy, as well as the economic conditions associated with low energy and transport costs.

 

[Wes]

Yes.
I am going to sell it to go electric.

Brand?

You might enjoy reading "Power Play" about the struggles to get Tesla up and running.

 

[Wes]

Yep it seems most governments are in the pockets of the oil business and politicians getting rich from it

also in the pockets of big Ag. which makes bio-ethanol

in the US, the Supreme Court ruled that money is speech, and is thus protected under the 1st Amendment

but, once an industry (say... PV solar) becomes large enough they can influence politicians; coal is shrinking, oil will shrink and solar is growing very quickly (I am optimistic that humans will solve the energy problem, but not soon enough to avoid a number of catastrophes. If for no other reasons, because of the multi-decade time lags built into the carbon cycle.)

 

[Jim Matthews]

We could have covered the moon in solar panels for that.

 

[Jim Matthews]

Brand?

You might enjoy reading "Power Play" about the struggles to get Tesla up and running.

Remember that Tesla fancies itself a power company. Cars were just the lever used to open this particular can of worms.

Their real opposition isn't GM - it's ConEd.