I recommend you write more clearly so we don't misinterpret your thoughts of what you intended to say.
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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"
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I recommend you write more clearly so we don't misinterpret your thoughts of what you intended to say.
maty
Major Contributor
maty
Major Contributor
https://vacunasaep.org/profesionales/noticias/gripe-espana-balance-2018-19
2018-2019, Spain (population: 47 M): 6,300 deaths by H1N1 influenza A.
Covid-19. Day 57, Spain.
2018-2019, Spain (population: 47 M): 6,300 deaths by H1N1 influenza A.
Covid-19. Day 57, Spain.
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Apologies if these have been posted before.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/da...w-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-coronavirus-outbreak.html
Does anyone know of a more recent version than 2/18?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/da...w-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-coronavirus-outbreak.html
Does anyone know of a more recent version than 2/18?
maty
Major Contributor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
Typical seasonal flu -> case fatality rate < 0.1%
Covid-19 vs H1N1 ratio: 22.02
Then Covid-19 (at day 57) is almost like Spanish flu (1928-1920) in fatality rate.
Note: now the medicine is much more advanced but the percentage of older people is much higher.
Typical seasonal flu -> case fatality rate < 0.1%
Covid-19 vs H1N1 ratio: 22.02
Then Covid-19 (at day 57) is almost like Spanish flu (1928-1920) in fatality rate.
Note: now the medicine is much more advanced but the percentage of older people is much higher.
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The problem with exponential growth popn. models is that they either tail over into K type (sigmoidal) growth at some point, or they crash (J shaped popn curves). I think an epidemiological modelling expert would be a better source, and something that is in a journal (even a pre-print), not twitter.
Whoa. New words for me, though I suspect I won't be surprised if they say "exponential increases don't go up up up forever in the real world".
Not to belittle what educational requirements led to her Phd., but she's currently employed in fake meat, which I would think is only tangentially related to virology, from what little I can see.
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Michiko Kaku, in one of his enterataining videos, in this case on Einstein's mathematics for relativity leading to a singularity and the resulting "infinitely small" result (a meaningless result), said something like : "To a mathematician, infinity is just a nice big number, to a physicist, it's an abomination".
He went on, getting more excited, with some black hole model that included quantum effects, and marveled at the infinity of infinities in that result. "This is a nightmare beyond comprehension", he says. "This is a collapse of physics as we know it."
Contained here, along with a lot of other interesting points:
This is a really good primer to share for people you know who are now ready to learn about the coronavirus and want to know the issues associated with it in the US: Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus
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Here'a quick look at those "new words"
https://www.dummies.com/education/s...onmental-science-of-population-growth-models/
Google Kaibab deer popn crash - might get some more info
https://www.dummies.com/education/s...onmental-science-of-population-growth-models/
Google Kaibab deer popn crash - might get some more info
TL DR - Everyone is guessing. I am guessing that we are not living through an end of times zombie virus apocalypse movie. I am certain that we will have an interesting story to tell our grandkids - either about a great die-off of the human population, or the time when everyone simply lost their minds.
Newbie here, and not a scientist. But, it would seem that there is a problem with calculating the current mortality rates, and then comparing that to historic or even seasonal outbreaks of disease.
Let’s take SARS and MERS. These occurred in the very recent past, so we have relatively precise measurements and understanding. These were very extreme diseases with few “mild” or asymptotic expressions; there was little doubt about who died from it (the numerator) and who had contracted it (the denominator). Calculating the mortality rate is pretty straightforward.
Take the annual flu next. We don’t have precise numbers of how many people contract it since most people don’t bother going to the doctor, but we have enough historical information that we can estimate the number of total cases from the rates of people who are found to have it at doctor visits (bad season means more doctor trips and positive tests). And death rates can again be compared against historical numbers. So while not precise, our estimates of flu mortality rates are probably pretty good.
What about the Spanish Flu? Trickier. The estimates for the number of people who died and who were infected vary wildly. But clearly the number of deaths were statistically much higher than normal, so we can say the Spanish Flu season was much worse than a seasonal flu. How much worse? Keep in mind this started near the end of WW1 and spread on the battlefield under less than ideal sanitary and medical conditions, and the large numbers of infected soldiers then went home and rapidly spread it. Lots of things contributed to the infection rates and mortality. But let’s agree - it definitely was worse than the average seasonal flu.
What about Covid-19? It is hard to miss extra deaths in a community, particularly when they display specific symptoms. I do not know if we are ascribing to Coronavirus any specific deaths from the regular flu but let’s grant the cause of death as being known. That’s the numerator. What about the denominator? That’s the problem right now. If, and it is a big if, the quoted stats are close to accurate and that at least 80% of cases present with very mild symptoms and probably will never be counted, we can not currently get a handle on the denominator. We could be calculating not the mortality rates of the disease, but the mortality rate of the WORST hit with the disease. I suspect that Covid-19 will stick around for a long, long time. And in time we will have reasonably good estimates of its mortality. We will even be able to look it up on Wikipedia in a few years. But now? It’s all a guessing game. The numbers today vary so widely you can pick whichever data set you want to make the point you want to make. This is confirmation bias heaven.
Oh, and why is Covid-19 spreading so much faster and killing so many more people than SARS and MERS? For the very reason that it is not as fatal a disease. SARS and MERS killed off their hosts too efficiently, reducing the spread. Being milder, Covid-19 does its damage by killing off a far smaller percentage of a far larger population. Doesn’t mean that Covid-19 is a more dangerous disease to individuals, but it is to larger populations.
Bottom line? Everyone is guessing. I am guessing that we are not living through an end of times zombie virus apocalypse movie. I am certain that we will have an interesting story to tell our grandkids - either about a great die-off of the human population, or the time when everyone simply lost their minds.
Newbie here, and not a scientist. But, it would seem that there is a problem with calculating the current mortality rates, and then comparing that to historic or even seasonal outbreaks of disease.
Let’s take SARS and MERS. These occurred in the very recent past, so we have relatively precise measurements and understanding. These were very extreme diseases with few “mild” or asymptotic expressions; there was little doubt about who died from it (the numerator) and who had contracted it (the denominator). Calculating the mortality rate is pretty straightforward.
Take the annual flu next. We don’t have precise numbers of how many people contract it since most people don’t bother going to the doctor, but we have enough historical information that we can estimate the number of total cases from the rates of people who are found to have it at doctor visits (bad season means more doctor trips and positive tests). And death rates can again be compared against historical numbers. So while not precise, our estimates of flu mortality rates are probably pretty good.
What about the Spanish Flu? Trickier. The estimates for the number of people who died and who were infected vary wildly. But clearly the number of deaths were statistically much higher than normal, so we can say the Spanish Flu season was much worse than a seasonal flu. How much worse? Keep in mind this started near the end of WW1 and spread on the battlefield under less than ideal sanitary and medical conditions, and the large numbers of infected soldiers then went home and rapidly spread it. Lots of things contributed to the infection rates and mortality. But let’s agree - it definitely was worse than the average seasonal flu.
What about Covid-19? It is hard to miss extra deaths in a community, particularly when they display specific symptoms. I do not know if we are ascribing to Coronavirus any specific deaths from the regular flu but let’s grant the cause of death as being known. That’s the numerator. What about the denominator? That’s the problem right now. If, and it is a big if, the quoted stats are close to accurate and that at least 80% of cases present with very mild symptoms and probably will never be counted, we can not currently get a handle on the denominator. We could be calculating not the mortality rates of the disease, but the mortality rate of the WORST hit with the disease. I suspect that Covid-19 will stick around for a long, long time. And in time we will have reasonably good estimates of its mortality. We will even be able to look it up on Wikipedia in a few years. But now? It’s all a guessing game. The numbers today vary so widely you can pick whichever data set you want to make the point you want to make. This is confirmation bias heaven.
Oh, and why is Covid-19 spreading so much faster and killing so many more people than SARS and MERS? For the very reason that it is not as fatal a disease. SARS and MERS killed off their hosts too efficiently, reducing the spread. Being milder, Covid-19 does its damage by killing off a far smaller percentage of a far larger population. Doesn’t mean that Covid-19 is a more dangerous disease to individuals, but it is to larger populations.
Bottom line? Everyone is guessing. I am guessing that we are not living through an end of times zombie virus apocalypse movie. I am certain that we will have an interesting story to tell our grandkids - either about a great die-off of the human population, or the time when everyone simply lost their minds.
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25% drop in April Crude Oil Futures at the opening today...
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Whoa, on top of the 33% loss YTD, that is a big drop. Does anybody have a good link to the inventory/supply/demand info? Given the warm winter, it’s clear any hiccup in industrial demand would result in a major oversupply situation. Natural Gas was also at a near all-time low last week, a trend that started a couple years ago.
I think Saudi Arabia is pissed off at Russia: https://www.npr.org/2020/03/08/8134...ve-discount-in-oil-sold-to-asia-europe-and-u-
According to this site, Saudi's marginal cost of production is $5 per barrel, Russia's is $30. So yes, SA is telling Russia, you better follow us or we'll eliminate your cash flow. https://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country. BUT, note the US and Canada's marginal costs: These figure are perhaps out of date, but you can kiss goodbye the profits of the US oil producers.
AND, this is just the beginning of the economic disruptions to be announced this week. Buckle up, friends.
AND, this is just the beginning of the economic disruptions to be announced this week. Buckle up, friends.
And, if you laughed at Iran.... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/08/ted-cruz-self-quarantine-coronavirus-cpac-124120
etc6849
Active Member
This is awesome news (for those like me out of the market waiting for future buying opportunities).
dshreter
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Or values have actually plummeted, and interest rates are already rock bottom, inflation is coming, and we are headed towards a recession. In which case it’s bad news for everyone.
etc6849
Active Member
A recession would be even better 
But wait, there's more:
CRS Report for Congress: Executive Branch Power to Postpone Elections https://fas.org/sgp/crs/RL32471.pdf
"It is possible, however, that the Executive Branch could make decisions that would make it difficult or impractical for a particular state or federal election to occur. For instance, a variety of situations could occur under which the Executive Branch might seek to limit the movement of citizens under its emergency powers. See Harold Relyea, National Emergency Powers, CRS Rep. 98-505 GOV ( May 13 2004)."
CRS Report for Congress: Executive Branch Power to Postpone Elections https://fas.org/sgp/crs/RL32471.pdf
"It is possible, however, that the Executive Branch could make decisions that would make it difficult or impractical for a particular state or federal election to occur. For instance, a variety of situations could occur under which the Executive Branch might seek to limit the movement of citizens under its emergency powers. See Harold Relyea, National Emergency Powers, CRS Rep. 98-505 GOV ( May 13 2004)."
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