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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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Some observations today as I went out. In general, it is strange to go places and see a fraction of the usual population out and about.
It's great to see places so quiet. I've just booked some travel. Can't wait to see some of these countries without the crowds! It will be like traveling in the early 1990's again (but with the Internet...) - when I'd argue there were far more things to be concerned with. Lonely Planet was the only research/guide available at the time, and you could get yourself into some interesting/unexpected situations back then.
 

StevenEleven

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So I am ball-parking what I would think of as a very optimistic estimate that “only“ 700,000 people in the world die of this. That‘s one percent of the world‘s 7 billion people (actually as I look it up, much closer to 8 billion people) contracting it and 1 percent of those people dying. I would say that based on the early numbers I am seeing probably a lot more will contract it and a lot more will die. Looking at expert projections, I could be low by a factor of nearly 100. It’s very unlikely my estimate is high. That’s mind-boggling to my imagination but that’s what my rough-cut intellect tells me—that even this number may be dramatically optimistic. I can only wish that I missed a decimal point somewhere.

It’s come to my small ciy in Maryland (USA). What it reminds me of: There was a sniper going around shooting random people here in this area in 2001 and it was terrifying, even though the odds that any one person would be shot were minuscule. People would look very frightened and apprehensive just putting gas in their car.

This may turn out to be similar, in terms of fear to leave one’s home, or fear of being around other people.
 
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raistlin65

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So I am ball-parking what I would think of as a very optimistic estimate that “only“ 700,000 people in the world die of this. That‘s one percent of the world‘s 7 billion people (actually as I look it up, much closer to 8 billion people) contracting it and 1 percent of those people dying. I would say that based on the early numbers I am seeing probably a lot more will contract it and a lot more will die. Looking at expert projections, I could be low by a factor of nearly 100. It’s very unlikely my estimate is high. That’s mind-boggling to my imagination but that’s what my rough-cut intellect tells me—that even this number may be dramatically optimistic. I can only wish that I missed a decimal point somewhere.

It’s come to my small ciy in Maryland (USA). What it reminds me of: There was a sniper going around shooting random people here in this area in 2001 and it was terrifying, even though the odds that any one person would be shot were minuscule. People would look very frightened and apprehensive just putting gas in their car.

This may turn out to be similar, in terms of fear to leave one’s home, or fear of being around other people.
Estimates are that one third of the world's population contracted the Spanish flu of 1918. We now live in a world where a much larger percentage of the population lives in suburban and urban centers, where thousands and thousands of people travel back and forth from one urban center to another every day, in a single day.

I think we'll be lucky if only one third of the world's population contracts COVID-19.
 

StevenEleven

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/arts/music/sxsw-cancelled.html

If you caught the virus at a organised event could you sue the organisers ?
As with so many things, the answer to such a broad question is “it depends.” By analogy you might imagine a spectrum on one end from an adult knowingly and maliciously, or recklessly, exposing another adult to the risk of contracting aids, to, on the other end, a child contracting a common cold at school. And you have laws of varying jurisdictions and how they are administered under different legal systems and even by different individuals.
 
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RayDunzl

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RayDunzl

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I see.

You have to also click "Show this thread", I suppose. I don't twit much.

She's using exponential growth of cases, maybe without limit.

Assuming China's reporting is accurate, and assuming China's population density to be "worst case" for spread, I don't see exponential growth in cases there, after they instituted some controls.

1583646494797.png


It is a series of tweets by the same author.
Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
Assoc. Director of Science & Technology
@GoodFoodInst
.Supporting alternative proteins for a sustainable food future. UCSD PhD, JHU ChemBE. Views my own.
 
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maxxevv

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So I am ball-parking what I would think of as a very optimistic estimate that “only“ 700,000 people in the world die of this. That‘s one percent of the world‘s 7 billion people (actually as I look it up, much closer to 8 billion people) contracting it and 1 percent of those people dying. I would say that based on the early numbers I am seeing probably a lot more will contract it and a lot more will die. Looking at expert projections, I could be low by a factor of nearly 100. It’s very unlikely my estimate is high. That’s mind-boggling to my imagination but that’s what my rough-cut intellect tells me—that even this number may be dramatically optimistic. I can only wish that I missed a decimal point somewhere.

It’s come to my small ciy in Maryland (USA). What it reminds me of: There was a sniper going around shooting random people here in this area in 2001 and it was terrifying, even though the odds that any one person would be shot were minuscule. People would look very frightened and apprehensive just putting gas in their car.

This may turn out to be similar, in terms of fear to leave one’s home, or fear of being around other people.
I seriously wonder how you pressed the calculator on those numbers.

1% of the world's population would be approximately 75,000,000.

Edit: I missed the 1% of the 1%.

At current rates, when medical facilities get over stretched, its closer to 3.5%.

Even if only 20% of the population get infected, that would be 1500,000,000, and 3.5% mortality out of that is staggering, 52,500,000 deaths.

You prepared for that ?
 

RayDunzl

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Even if only 20% of the population get, that would be 1500,000,000, and 3.5% mortality out of that is staggering, 52,500,000 deaths.

You prepared for that ?

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

"Of the 56.9 million deaths worldwide in 2016 . . . . . "

Here's a crass thought:
I suppose a considerable percentage of the deaths would be accelerated, not additional, if the weak/frail/sick/elderly (those that may have died soon anyway) are the majority of the fatal victims of the virus.
 
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raistlin65

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I see.

You have to also click "Show this thread", I suppose. I don't twit much.

She's using exponential growth of cases, maybe without limit.

Assuming China's reporting is accurate, and assuming China's population density to be "worst case" for spread, I don't see exponential growth in cases there, after they instituted some controls.

View attachment 53290

Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
Assoc. Director of Science & Technology
@GoodFoodInst
.Supporting alternative proteins for a sustainable food future. UCSD PhD, JHU ChemBE. Views my own.
She's focusing on what would happen if it was exponential growth into May, so not without limits.

China is far different from our society. I think you have to watch what happens in South Korea and Italy to get a better projection of what we might have to look forward to.

However, the US healthcare system could easily be at a disadvantage compared to most industrialized nations because we don't have socialized medicine. I think that puts us at disadvantage in having a coordinated response.
 

digicidal

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True but with the above esitmate... that would be a 100% increase in the annual death rate. That's not small, though admittedly it also isn't likely to be permanent, however with reinfection occurring in China... it's pretty much up to hoping for it to be temperature sensitive and die off during the summer at this point IMO.

However, the US healthcare system could easily be at a disadvantage compared to most industrialized nations because we don't have socialized medicine. I think that puts us at disadvantage in having a coordinated response.
In countries with socialized medicine there are still massive problems with treatment and space availability. The largest problems however won't be the fact that we don't have enough negative pressure isolation rooms, nor medical professionals to treat the sick... it will be the fact that if things don't significantly improve in China - we'll have people with heart disease, diabetes, cancer, measles, bacterial infections, etc. dying in much greater numbers as well.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-dependence-pharmaceutical-products-china
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/con...-biotech-and-pharmaceutical-products-07312019
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/20/policymakers-worry-china-drug-exports-088126
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...irus-raises-fears-us-drug-supply-disruptions/
 
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StevenEleven

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I seriously wonder how you pressed the calculator on those numbers.

1% of the world's population would be approximately 75,000,000.

At current rates, when medical facilities get over stretched, its closer to 3.5%.

Even if only 20% of the population get infected, that would be 1500,000,000, and 3.5% mortality out of that is staggering, 52,500,000 deaths.

You prepared for that ?
I didn’t use a calculator, or even a piece of paper. Just a brain and a rough memory. One percent of an estimated world population 7 billion is 70,000,000 and a death rate of one percent of those 70,000,000 people would come out to 700,000 deaths. And I acknowledged my world population estimate was low after I looked it up and said that the total deaths of 700,000 was my low estimate and according to some experts I could be low by a factor of about 100. My math and my reasoning were perfectly sound, and my intent was to orient people as to the enormous magnitude of the problem.

I’d say current estimates are indeed uncertain within a factor of about 100. That’s how much we don’t know.
 
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maxxevv

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I didn’t use a calculator, or even a piece of paper. Just a brain and a rough memory. One percent of 7 billion is 70,000,000 and one percent of 70,000,000 is 700,000. That’s grade school stuff. And I acknowledged my world population estimate was low after I looked it up and said that the total deaths of 700,000 was my low estimate and according to some experts I could be off by a factor of 100. My intent was to orient people as to the enormous magnitude of the problem. Don’t really see your point, except to throw some shade.

I’d say current estimates are indeed uncertain within a factor of about 100. That’s how much we don’t know.
My apologies if my amendment didn't come fast enough. As shown above, I have edited that I missed the "1% of the 1%" before you even posted your reply.

Its not throwing shade, but it was what I saw as being wrong figures, which I saw wrongly instead.

WuHan has a 11 million population, it had close to 60,000 infections. Hubei as a province has 58 million people and some 67,000 infections.
That's 0.5% of the city and 0.01% of the province infected.

And that was with draconian and effective quarantine. It will be easily a few times that percentage in any major city in the world if those measures are not in place. 5% of the population in a major city infected is not out of the question, even higher figures like 15% are plausible. Those 1% mortality rates are only applicable if the medical facilities have sufficient capacity to cope with the numbers. Once that is crossed, its closer to 4%. In the 3+% ballpark.

So its a moving figure, not static as many would like to see it as. Italy has 5888 infections ( ~0.1% of population) as I read now, it has 233 deaths already. Meaning its almost 4% mortality. Its medical capacity is at its limits now as far as I read.

Those figures for infection will rise for a while yet until it stabilises. 10000~12500 infected is not out of the question as far as things in China has shown how fast it can spread.
 

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BDWoody

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It’s come to my small ciy in Maryland (USA). What it reminds me of: There was a sniper going around shooting random people here in this area in 2001 and it was terrifying
That was an interesting time...

That was particularly terrifying for one of my employees. Apparently the profile they were following was for a young black man in a hooded sweatshirt driving a white cargo van...
He was in DC, driving our standard white cargo van (which he parked in an alley), wearing our standard dark hooded sweatshirt, and on a rooftop doing the work we do. Between one of his trips down to the Van, then back up to the roof, the building was surrounded by police, several helicopters were overhead, and his day became a lot more interesting. I'm very glad he didn't do anything that would have gotten him hurt or worse, but they were taking that shit very seriously back then...
 

maty

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In Tarragona province (Catalonia, Spain) there has not yet been any case but I fear that it is only a matter of time, as in the rest of the European continent.

Very interesting, with a lot of images and schemes.

Guía de actuación ante el coronavirus
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/06/actualidad/1583504237_786490.html

Guide to action against the coronavirus
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/06/actualidad/1583504237_786490.html
 
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