What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[maty]

Las mutaciones del coronavirus SARS-CoV-2
[Spanish] https://francis.naukas.com/2020/03/07/las-mutaciones-del-coronavirus-sars-cov-2/

Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 mutations
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://francis.naukas.com/2020/03/07/las-mutaciones-del-coronavirus-sars-cov-2/

Between November 29, 2019 and March 7, 2020, 209 complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2 have been sequenced, in which 111 non-synonymous amino acid mutations have been observed (remember that the genetic code is redundant and the mutations they occur in nucleotides, then there are many more nucleotide mutations). None of these amino acid mutations have demonstrated clinical relevance in COVID-19 infection; then it cannot be said that there are two strains (or more) well separated. So do not be fooled, for now there is only a quasi-species of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 among the human population...

 

[andymok]

WHO says coronavirus is deadlier than the flu

https://cnn.it/2uQnEbI

 

[BDWoody]

I like the creative approach...

https://www.cnn.com/travel/amp/italy-lambrusco-wine-from-faucet-castelvetro-trnd/index.html

 

[raistlin65]

A Twitter thread explanation by a Professor, School of Chemistry, UNSW, which discusses the molecular biology behind how the virus sticks (or not) to different surfaces, and how soap works best to eliminate it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236549305189597189

 

[andymok]

Coronavirus epidemic will not end this year, Hong Kong’s leading microbiologist says
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...navirus-epidemic-will-not-end-year-hong-kongs

Professor Yuen Kwok-yung from the University of Hong Kong, who advised authorities on control measures against the disease, said although the situation in mainland China and Hong Kong might improve in summer, there could be more imported cases from the southern hemisphere in winter.

“We think the epidemic will probably not come to an end,” Yuen said on a pre-recorded television interview aired on Sunday. “There will be what we call reversed imported cases. In the beginning other countries feared us, now we fear them [for bringing in the virus].”

“If everyone washes his or her hand, wears a mask all the time and maintains social distancing, the risk of infection will be lowered. It’s a matter of compliance,” Yuen said.

“We cannot guard against the virus forever, but the longer we delay its spread, the higher the chances of getting a vaccine in time.”

Coronavirus outbreak will not subside soon, expert says
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/brea...s-outbreak-will-not-subside-soon,-expert-says

There could be improvement to the outbreak during summer, but the virus would spread to the southern hemisphere and return in winter via imported cases, he said in a television interview yesterday.

“It will not come to an end. The situation may get better when summer arrives but it'll come back in winter,” he said.

 

[MediumRare]

Estimates are that one third of the world's population contracted the Spanish flu of 1918. We now live in a world where a much larger percentage of the population lives in suburban and urban centers, where thousands and thousands of people travel back and forth from one urban center to another every day, in a single day.

I think we'll be lucky if only one third of the world's population contracts COVID-19.

How does this math stack up with the apparent fact of Wuhan’s cases topping out in the low 100,000 range against a population over 10 million? I’m not minimizing the threat, just trying to reconcile with empirical evidence.

 

[PierreV]

How does this math stack up with the apparent fact of Wuhan’s cases topping out in the low 100,000 range against a population over 10 million? I’m not minimizing the threat, just trying to reconcile with empirical evidence.

The previous models aren't necessarily adequate given 1) the extreme measures being taken now 2) the technical abilities we have now. If you model something like the flu spread, you are modeling something we take no special precautions (and certainly not as extreme as we do now) other than trying to vaccine a few (relatively speaking) persons. I'd say that if containment works, at least to some significant extent, we'll have tons of data to analyze in terms of what worked and what did not and will refine the models. If containment doesn't work, then we could very well end up very close to the worst modeled cases. The math isn't fundamentally wrong, we're just fighting quite hard so it is does not become applicable.

Those of us old enough to remember the start of the aids epidemy remember the many, many months researchers were in "wtf is going on???" mode. Here, we had zero doubts and full sequencing of the pathogen in a matter of days (after the initial Chinese cover-up) and an extreme reaction. That's really a different world.

 

[raistlin65]

How does this math stack up with the apparent fact of Wuhan’s cases topping out in the low 100,000 range against a population over 10 million? I’m not minimizing the threat, just trying to reconcile with empirical evidence.

Go beyond the math. The Spanish Flu outbreak lasted from January 1918 through December 1920. Certainly could happen faster with COVID-19 due to the concentration of global populations in urban centers and the amount of travel that happens today.

Is it possible in free societies, to maintain a marshall law style quarantine like China did in Wuhan, coupled with an effective travel ban, until COVID-19 dies out? And what is the guarantee that it won't come back once the quarantine is lifted? What would stop the pandemic is (1) a vaccine or (2) enough of the population in a region contracts the virus and survives it such that there are not enough new carriers to transmit it.

Let's imagine that the US imposes an air travel ban on an infected area like the San Francisco bay area and encourages citizens to engage in a quarantine. Many Americans feel very little social responsibility. Many people will jump in their cars and flee the area. Could the US government declare marshall law and block off the roadways surrounding the bay area? I'm not sure that's politically, legally, or logistically feasible.

 

[BDWoody]

Let's imagine that the US imposes an air travel ban on an infected area like the San Francisco bay area and encourages citizens to engage in a quarantine. Many people will jump in their cars and flee the area. Could the US government declare marshall law and block off the roadways surrounding the bay area? I'm not sure that's politically, legally, or logistically feasible.

Good question...

The governor of each state has the individual capability to impose martial law within the state, and the President can declare nationally. How that specific scenario might play out is interesting to think about. Surrounding states could all lock down...

 

[andymok]

Is it possible in free societies, to maintain a marshall law style quarantine like China did in Wuhan, coupled with an effective travel ban, until COVID-19 dies out?

It is possible actually, if people asked for it. HKer begged the govt for a self lock-down, the gov chickened out because of bearing the "world's freest economy" name instead.

 

[MediumRare]

Go beyond the math. The Spanish Flu outbreak lasted from January 1918 through December 1920. Certainly could happen faster with COVID-19 due to the concentration of global populations in urban centers and the amount of travel that happens today.

Is it possible in free societies, to maintain a marshall law style quarantine like China did in Wuhan, coupled with an effective travel ban, until COVID-19 dies out? And what is the guarantee that it won't come back once the quarantine is lifted? What would stop the pandemic is (1) a vaccine or (2) enough of the population in a region contracts the virus and survives it such that there are not enough new carriers to transmit it.

Let's imagine that the US imposes an air travel ban on an infected area like the San Francisco bay area and encourages citizens to engage in a quarantine. Many Americans feel very little social responsibility. Many people will jump in their cars and flee the area. Could the US government declare marshall law and block off the roadways surrounding the bay area? I'm not sure that's politically, legally, or logistically feasible.

I understand the worst case scenario, but there are plenty of counterfactuals. First off, Covid-19 has a transmission rate far lower than several other diseases, yet they are (mostly) not endemic either. Second, less draconian quarantines can be effective, thus reducing average transmission rates below 1.0 in defined localities. For example, so far in Chicago the growth rate in cases is very slow, despite Chicago being only the second US location to have a reported case, direct from Wuhan. Third: Malthus was wrong. Again, I’m not disregarding real risks, just looking at actual empirical evidence.

 

[dshreter]

I don’t think there’s anyone arguing that containment measures aren’t effective. But they come with huge societal costs (economic, psychological, social). And the belief is the virus is far too widespread at this point to be eradicated.

So you can either take extreme containment measures, or let the vulnerable perish. Both are pretty grim until a vaccine is developed.

 

[raistlin65]

Good question...

The governor of each state has the individual capability to impose martial law within the state, and the President can declare nationally. How that specific scenario might play out is interesting to think about. Surrounding states could all lock down...

I don't think the US government can use the military to enforce marshall law without Congressional approval. And politically it would be a nightmare for the federal government, even with Congressional support, to try to impose marshall law without the state's approval. Remember Katrina and the issues with using US military support without Louisana's approval. Heck, Louisana dropped the ball on declaring an emergency so that FEMA could get involved. So politically and legally, the state and the federal government have to both be on the same page.

Meanwhile, individual states would likely confront legal challenges from some of its citizens if the governor attempts to impose an extended quarantine through marshall law on an urban area. Factor in all of the political complications of doing so, and the logistical issues of something as simple as trying to provide food for an urban population for six weeks. Based on smaller emergencies, we know that FEMA is not up to the task. China is simple in comparison. The government can pretty much decide to do it, and then they figure it out. In comparison, it's a quagmire to do this in the US.

 

[raistlin65]

I understand the worst case scenario, but there are plenty of counterfactuals. First off, Covid-19 has a transmission rate far lower than several other diseases, yet they are (mostly) not endemic either. Second, less draconian quarantines can be effective, thus reducing average transmission rates below 1.0 in defined localities. For example, so far in Chicago the growth rate in cases is very slow, despite Chicago being only the second US location to have a reported case, direct from Wuhan. Third: Malthus was wrong. Again, I’m not disregarding real risks, just looking at actual empirical evidence.

But that's not what MediumRare asked, which is what I was replying to. His question was focused on Wuhan and the Chinese containment effectiveness.

 

[MediumRare]

But that's not what MediumRare asked, which is what I was replying to. His question was focused on Wuhan and the Chinese containment effectiveness.

To clairify, my question was not focused on Wuhan, I used that as an example where transmission rates have declined below 1.0. It's not the only example nor the only way to reduce the transmission rate.

 

[BDWoody]

In comparison, it's a quagmire to do this in the US.

There would certainly need to be more levels of agreement than normally exists for anything to happen.
I would hope that if/as 'things' get worse and something as extreme as martial law from anyone is being seriously considered, that the common goal of effective containment might win the day, but that's a long way off...and certainly not guaranteed.

I am happy for the acres of isolation around me.

 

[dshreter]

It might sound extreme, but an Apollo style program to develop treatment and and preventive measures is needed here. On top of that, an FDR style economic program is needed to float the small businesses and employees that must go on hiatus to keep this disease under control for the next year.

I hope the US can develop the political courage quickly to do what is needed to head off a human and economic tragedy of massive proportions.

 

[raistlin65]

There would certainly need to be more levels of agreement than normally exists for anything to happen.
I would hope that if/as 'things' get worse and something as extreme as martial law from anyone is being seriously considered, that the common goal of effective containment might win the day, but that's a long way off...and certainly not guaranteed.

I am happy for the acres of isolation around me.

That's an understatement. lol

I think in the short run of the next month or two, states that have a governor who is seriously focused on the problem, has good leadership skills, and has the political capital to take significant action will have the most success. I'm not sure that's where I live.

 

[raistlin65]

To clairify, my question was not focused on Wuhan, I used that as an example where transmission rates have declined below 1.0. It's not the only example nor the only way to reduce the transmission rate.

You seem to have forgotten, it was focused on Wuhan.

How does this math stack up with the apparent fact of Wuhan’s cases....

Otherwise, I don't know.

 

[MediumRare]

You seem to have forgotten, it was focused on Wuhan.
Otherwise, I don't know.

Sorry, I didn't forget, you misinterpreted. The focus was: "How does the math stack up?". The answer is, it doesn't. So let's not hyperventilate. The world is not ending. This is a threat, just like all the previous (and virtually annual) infectious disease threats in the 21st century. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics Again, not minimizing the risk, just looking for facts and evidence.