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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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sweetchaos

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This case is particularly close to me, so it caught my attention:

Woman in BC, Canada tests positive for coronavirus after returning from Iran.
Source: https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020HLTH0041-000304

Iran is a country of 83 million.
BNONews is tracking and showing Iran's confirmed cases at 5.
Yes, you read that right...Five.
This case has chilling implications if the Iranian government is hiding the outbreak.

That could be an indicator that there's more widespread transmission.
-said the BC's provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry
 
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sweetchaos

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South Korea's confirmed cases went up to 204. (source)
More than double, in less than 48 hours.

South Korea is now #1 (behind China) in terms of confirmed cases and escalating faster than other countries.
This proves the *lockdown* in Daegu we saw a couple of days ago.
 

sweetchaos

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As of 4 hours ago:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...l-cities-reports-two-new-deaths-idUSKBN20F1GU

Iran:
“Based on existing reports, the spread of coronavirus started in Qom and with attention to people’s travels has now reached several cities in the country including Tehran, Babol, Arak, Isfahan, Rasht and other cities,” health ministry official Minou Mohrez said, according to the official IRNA news agency.

“It’s possible that it exists in all cities in Iran,” she said.
Avoid flying to Iran for a while ...
 

North_Sky

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https://nationalpost.com/news/world...f-that-means-containment-measures-are-working

Four days ago there were news of a slowdown. Four days is a long time for this serious and fast growing subject with so many uncertainties and without a cure....it's an awfully high level of old news...dead news.

Latest ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus

MarketWatch ... 5G v COVID-19
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...oronavirus-could-slow-it-even-more-2020-02-21

 
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sweetchaos

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How does the COVID-19 spread?

There are 2 types of transmission:
1. droplets
2. airborne

What's the difference between droplets and airborne transmissions?
Basically:
1. droplets => transmitted up to 2m distance, via caughing or sneezing of infected person
2. airoborne => transmitted in the same room, or across rooms, just by breathing of infected person

For more info, see this video that explains the difference:

What does US CDC say?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html
1582338109444.png

Most of the official reports from China (as well as US CDC) have claimed that it's transmitted via droplets only.

Now, for the big shocker...

About 48 hours ago, Chinese Authorities have admitted that COVID-19 could be airborne (spread by aerosol) transmissible.

This would certainly explain a few things...
 
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The key thing is aerosol has to be present in the environment onto which the virus can adhere to. When the "loaded" aerosol get dispersed, the virus is spread. A medical team in HK Public Health Service has conducted an experiment that showed the virus is unlikely to be transmitted via airborne. The doctor who conducted the experiment also mentioned that it is a different story when aerosol is present in the environment. Apparently, such a situation will exist in a hospital room when some kind of treatment is being administered to the patient. The virus expelled by the patient can adhere to the aerosol that is suspended in the atmopshere. Anyone that comes into contact with the aerosol loaded with the virus will be contaminated. There is a 2 part video (Youtube ?) featuring this discussion. It appeared that this doctor was explaining the phenomenon to a group of medical health Service workers.
 

RayDunzl

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Israel confirms first coronavirus case as cruise ship returnee diagnosed
One of 11 Israelis who arrived in the morning following quarantine aboard Diamond Princess ship tests positive, after entering 14-day isolation at Sheba Medical Center
source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israe...virus-case-as-cruise-ship-returnee-diagnosed/
reliability of source: high https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/times-of-israel/

Coronavirus: two Australians evacuated from Diamond Princess test positive in Darwin
All cruise ship passengers tested negative before flight home, but two found to have Covid-19 upon arrival
source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...from-diamond-princess-test-positive-in-darwin
reliability of source: high https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-guardian/

10 Italian towns in lockdown over coronavirus fears
Authorities in northern Italy on Friday ordered the closure of schools, bars and other public spaces in 10 towns following a flurry of new coronavirus cases.
Five doctors and 10 other people tested positive for the virus in Lombardy, after apparently frequenting the same bar and group of friends, with two other cases in Veneto, authorities said at a press conference.
Over 50,000 people have been asked to stay at home in the areas concerned, while all public activities such as carnival celebrations, church masses and sporting events have been banned for up to a week.
source: https://www.france24.com/en/20200221-10-italian-towns-in-lockdown-over-coronavirus-fears
reliability of source: high https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/france24/

Coronavirus COVID-19 cases climb by two among Diamond Princess cruise ship evacuees in Darwin
Since arrival at [the quarantine facility], a total of 17 people who have shown mild respiratory symptoms have now been tested after being isolated," Mr Murphy said.
"Given the continued evidence the infection was spreading on board the Diamond Princess in recent days, the development of these positive cases after returning to Australia was not unexpected, despite all of the health screening conducted before departure, during the flight and on arrival at the facility."
source: https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/aust...ss-cruise-ship-evacuees-in-darwin/ar-BB10dhp5
reliability of source: high https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/msn-com/

Fear grips Iran after 5 deaths from coronavirus
Coronavirus has claimed 5 lives in Iran, with 18 new confirmed cases
source: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/fear-grips-iran-after-5-deaths-from-coronavirus/1740846
reliability of source: mixed https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/anadolu-agency/

Chinese Coronavirus Patient Reinfected 10 Days After Leaving Hospital
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/ch...ent-reinfected-10-days-after-leaving-hospital
reliability of source: CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE with mixed rating of factual reporting https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/zero-hedge/

Coronavirus outbreak: South Korea church cluster drives huge jump in cases
The number of infections has increased by 142 to 346, officials said on Saturday, with most of the cases linked to the city of Daegu and surrounding region two hours south of Seoul. (...)
By Saturday morning, the city of 2.5 million and nearby areas counted 283 cases, including South Korea’s first two fatalities in a hospital in Cheongdo county about 25km south of Daegu.
The central government has declared the area as a special management zone and is channeling support to ease a shortage in hospital beds, medical personnel and equipment.
source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-huge-jump-cases-china-hubei-wuhan-outbreak-
reliability of source: high https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-guardian/
 

RayDunzl

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Perspective:

China Death Rate

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/death-rate

7.402 per 1000 people per year

China Population - estimate - 1,437,210,885

1,437,210,885 / 1000 = 1,437,210 thousands

1,437,210 thousands x 7.402 per thousand = 10,638,228 deaths per year, 29,145 per day.

Reported Virus deaths in China so far = 1,115 deaths / 10,638,228 per year = 0.01048% of "normal" yearly deaths, though a bit concentrated in a local area, and due to an unexpected cause.

---

"Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year."

---

Opinion:

I might be surprised if the total deaths from flu this year isn't less than typical, due to awaremess and additional care taken by people to avoid it.

Ok...

11 days later, 2,360 reported deaths, from the earlier 1,115

If doubling continues...

We're all dead by October 21
 

Wombat

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Well, this disaster sure exposes the downside of concentrating manufacturing in global regions with old fashioned food, or other, hygiene practices.

Stock up on batteries.
 
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RayDunzl

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When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00361-5

Optimist: Already
Pessimist: between late March and late May. At this point, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected

Best Advice: Be Sure To Drink Your Ovaltine....
 
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New developments suggest coronavirus incubation could be longer than 14 days, as global infections rise
There are new indications that the incubation period for the virus could be longer than the currently believed 14 days, with patients testing positive after much longer quarantine periods.
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...dd19de-54ea-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html
reliability of source: high https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/washington-post/

Coronavirus infections increase among cruise ship passengers brought to U.S.
Twenty-eight U.S. residents flown home from the Diamond Princess cruise ship are infected with coronavirus, and health officials expect to see more positive cases among the evacuated passengers in coming days, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.
The passengers from the ship, along with three infected people previously returned from Wuhan, China, bring the total number of evacuees with the virus in the United States to 31. An additional 13 people in the United States either picked up the infection by traveling to China or from close contact with a family member who had been in China.
The passengers, who had been quarantined aboard the cruise ship in Japan, are “considered at high risk of infection and we do expect to see additional cases,” Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a media briefing.
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...20674c-54e5-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html
reliability of source: high https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/washington-post/
 

sweetchaos

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North_Sky

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Ok...

11 days later, 2,360 reported deaths, from the earlier 1,115

If doubling continues...

We're all dead by October 21
Ray, you are correct; there would be zero human left on the planet two months roughly before next Christmas. Might as well go shopping now and have an early Summer Christmas, without snow without that true Christmas spirit with Santa descending through the chimney.
 

g29

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When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00361-5

Optimist: Already
Pessimist: between late March and late May. At this point, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected

Best Advice: Be Sure To Drink Your Ovaltine....
 

gikigill

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Well, this disaster sure exposes the downside of concentrating manufacturing in global regions with old fashioned food, or other, hygiene practices.

Stock up on batteries.
Already got solar panels and winter coming so I'll be alright. Stocking up on rice, wheat and lentils.
Might need to raise some chickens though.
 
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