What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[MediumRare]

Okay, how long are YOU willing to be locked down? A year? Two? This is a reasonable question.

It's not a reasonable question.

My opinion - as a private individual - is not relevant in a public health emergency. "Typhoid Mary" was not willing to be locked up one day; she was very happy to be employed AS A COOK even when she knew she had been killing the families of her employers. Ultimately, she was imprisoned for life because she violated public safety.

From a political science perspective, I entirely support the legal basis upon which my governor objected to the flagrant partying around St. Patrick's day that flouted the state's moderate advice and declared only the 2nd "shelter in place" order in the nation. Still, we go out, run, go to the store, carry on our business (luckily I am not in a personal contact job, like a barber), etc. These things are called, under the law, "reasonable accommodations." Are you suggesting that the government of Texas is currently violating your Constitutional rights?

If you feel your government is capriciously limiting freedom of movement or not making reasonable accommodations, you are free to file a Federal lawsuit seeking an injunction. Otherwise, what are you concerned about?

 

[Wes]

“Have you been to East Texas?”

I grew up near there. It's full of snakes.

 

[MarcT]

It's not a reasonable question.

My opinion - as a private individual - is not relevant in a public health emergency. "Typhoid Mary" was not willing to be locked up one day; she was very happy to be employed AS A COOK even when she knew she had been killing the families of her employers. Ultimately, she was imprisoned for life because she violated public safety.

From a political science perspective, I entirely support the legal basis upon which my governor objected to the flagrant partying around St. Patrick's day that flouted the state's moderate advice and declared only the 2nd "shelter in place" order in the nation. Still, we go out, run, go to the store, carry on our business (luckily I am not in a personal contact job, like a barber), etc. These things are called, under the law, "reasonable accommodations." Are you suggesting that the government of Texas is currently violating your Constitutional rights?

If you feel your government is capriciously limiting freedom of movement or not making reasonable accommodations, you are free to file a Federal lawsuit seeking an injunction. Otherwise, what are you concerned about?

Well, I generally agree with your argument. I guess I'm concerned that, coming out of this, a precedent will have been set, and there will be a general diminution of our liberty going forward. Once the genie is out of the bottle... And I'm concerned about a loss of future employment opportunities for my four children as result of decreased economic activity going forward. We are shutting down our economy while China is going full speed ahead with theirs and expanding their influence and attempting to exert hegemony over Southeast Asia. Lots of bad things can happen if the USA is weakened.

 

[JustJones]

The precedent of quarantine and limited movement has already been set. Been that way since before we were even a country.

 

[LTig]

Okay, how long are YOU willing to be locked down? A year? Two? This is a reasonable question.

No, this will be impossible. Making the infection curve sufficiently flat so that the health system is not overwhelmed means for most countries a lock down of 1 to 2 years to reach 60 to 70% herd immunity. Clearly no economy will survive such a lock down.

The only way IMV to shorten this is to make the lock down so strict that the effective reproduction rate of the virus goes to less than 1 (e.g. 0.5), and keep it like this until the number of infected persons is so small the we can go back the containment phase, where infected people and their contacts are put into quarantine. Then wait for a vaccine or drug. The crisis will be over when heard immunity is reached, either by infection or by vaccination. Hopefully the virus has not mutated too much until then.

There is another short way but I don't want to think about its consequences.

 

[Xulonn]

“Have you been to East Texas?”

Traveled by train with my new adoptive mother from Chicago to Nacogdoches in 1952 to visit her sister & family. I was 10 y/o and had a cousin the same age. We went outside to play. Cousin's friends wanted to beat me up because I had a "Yankee accent." Managed to escape unharmed. I don't have a good impression of East Texas.

 

[MarcT]

No, this will be impossible. Making the infection curve sufficiently flat so that the health system is not overwhelmed means for most countries a lock down of 1 to 2 years to reach 60 to 70% herd immunity. Clearly no economy will survive such a lock down.

The only way IMV to shorten this is to make the lock down so strict that the effective reproduction rate of the virus goes to less than 1 (e.g. 0.5), and keep it like this until the number of infected persons is so small the we can go back the containment phase, where infected people and their contacts are put into quarantine. Then wait for a vaccine or drug. The crisis will be over when heard immunity is reached, either by infection or by vaccination. Hopefully the virus has not mutated too much until then.

There is another short way but I don't want to think about its consequences.

Well, just ran across this report on Ivermectin inhibiting the virus in vitro . This drug is widely available and seen as safe, according to the report. Seems like it might have some effect on the virus in vivo, but needs investigation.

https://www.newsweek.com/anti-paras...-help-stop-coronavirus-new-study-says-1496083

 

[raif71]

Monkey see, monkey do!

Hopefully we don't .... "See monkey, do monkey!"

 

[Blumlein 88]

No, this will be impossible. Making the infection curve sufficiently flat so that the health system is not overwhelmed means for most countries a lock down of 1 to 2 years to reach 60 to 70% herd immunity. Clearly no economy will survive such a lock down.

The only way IMV to shorten this is to make the lock down so strict that the effective reproduction rate of the virus goes to less than 1 (e.g. 0.5), and keep it like this until the number of infected persons is so small the we can go back the containment phase, where infected people and their contacts are put into quarantine. Then wait for a vaccine or drug. The crisis will be over when heard immunity is reached, either by infection or by vaccination. Hopefully the virus has not mutated too much until then.

There is another short way but I don't want to think about its consequences.

Would that be virus extermination with extreme prejudice?

 

[LTig]

Would that be virus extermination with extreme prejudice?

No - just stop the lock down completely and let the people meet again. Let the infection wave crush the health system. Fast and effective ... ... and the survivers can restart the economic.

EDIT: Allright, let's suppress our feelings and talk cold math: In the US approximately 0.1% of population is infected as of today. So after 10 doublings 100% will be infected. With doubling every 3 days this would happen begin of May. Another 2 or 3 weeks later the last death will have occured. So it's over in less than 2 months... leaving behind at least 2 million dead.

 

[amirm]

Let's stop the political discussions folks. It will derail the thread.

 

[Vince2]

If I were running a business, I would use my creativity on making modifications that would comply with the CDC guidelines. Keep physical distance and eliminate contaminations. It is the unwillingness to adapt and take this seriously that required a staying at home recommendation. Any business that can guarantee compliance could resume operation under these conditions. Would not be surprised if this became the next step. I plan on running my life and business this way for the next couple of years until a vaccine is available.

 

[JustJones]

I don't see how restaurants or hair salons could operate with everyone staying 6 to 10 feet apart. I can't go out now anyway I had my wife cut my hair for some reason she wouldn't let me cut hers. I can trim shrubs pretty nice even topiary.

 

[gikigill]

If I were running a business, I would use my creativity on making modifications that would comply with the CDC guidelines. Keep physical distance and eliminate contaminations. It is the unwillingness to adapt and take this seriously that required a staying at home recommendation. Any business that can guarantee compliance could resume operation under these conditions. Would not be surprised if this became the next step. I plan on running my life and business this way for the next couple of years until a vaccine is available.

Its already happening in Australia.

I got lunch from Hakata Gensuke, a very prominent ramen shop in Melbourne which always has lines out the door.

They had pickup only by ordering via Internet or you could go to the shop and order over the counter and pickup while in the shop and in the shop, they had folks stand a fair bit apart. Went in, ordered and paid via card, hung around in the empty shop with a couple waiting for their order , picked up order and drove back home.

A surreal feeling to bring the food home as I always eat there and they seemed to still have maintained their quality and their clientele.

 

[andymok]

I don't see how restaurants or hair salons could operate with everyone staying 6 to 10 feet apart. I can't go out now anyway I had my wife cut my hair for some reason she wouldn't let me cut hers. I can trim shrubs pretty nice even topiary.

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2020/03/20200327/20200327_202339_445.html

there will be exemptions for the four-person limit regulation such as in the workplace and at weddings. This regulation will come into effect for 14 days from midnight on March 29.

A second regulation will require restaurants only to serve half their capacity of customers. Each table needs to be separated by at least 1.5m and only four people can be seated at a table.

 

[Putter]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronaviruscurve/

We're number 1!!! Oh wait, that's not an honor but rather it's tragic. The US currently leads all other developed nations in rate of increase in cumulative cases of corona virus diagnosed since the 100th case was reported. This is supposed to a non political thread, but it's hard to escape the fact this is a reflection of our political and cultural systems.

It's certainly possible that we're not number 1 due to issues in reporting and testing in this and other countries, but it seems likely that we're still near the top.

 

[RayDunzl]

We're number 1!!! Oh wait, that's not an honor but rather it's tragic.

Not #1 per capita.

The US currently leads all other developed nations in rate of increase in cumulative cases of corona virus diagnosed since the 100th case was reported.

Rate of increase, or count of increase?

This is supposed to a non political thread, but it's hard to escape the fact this is a reflection of our political and cultural systems.

Isn't everything?

It's certainly possible that we're not number 1 due to issues in reporting and testing in this and other countries, but it seems likely that we're still near the top.

Depends on how and what you choose to count.

 

[Vince2]

I don't see how restaurants or hair salons could operate with everyone staying 6 to 10 feet apart. I can't go out now anyway I had my wife cut my hair for some reason she wouldn't let me cut hers. I can trim shrubs pretty nice even topiary.

That is why I stated the problem is the resistance to adapt. If you can't maintain the physical distance, you have to address the safety in other ways. It can be done if you intent to.

 

[MarcT]

I don't see how restaurants or hair salons could operate with everyone staying 6 to 10 feet apart. I can't go out now anyway I had my wife cut my hair for some reason she wouldn't let me cut hers. I can trim shrubs pretty nice even topiary.

My understanding is that the average profit margin for restaurants is around 2 to 3%. If you cut their revenue in half, how are they going to pay rent and utilities? This is not going to work, unless they massively increase their prices, in which case half the population would not be able to afford to eat there. This is why I've been trying to tell people you cannot keep going like we are now for more than about another month. It's hard economic reality, and people need to consider things like this when they talk about never going back to it was before.

 

[Doodski]

My understanding is that the average profit margin for restaurants is around 2 to 3%. If you cut their revenue in half, how are they going to pay rent and utilities? This is not going to work, unless they massively increase their prices, in which case half the population would not be able to afford to eat there. This is why I've been trying to tell people you cannot keep going like we are now for more than about another month. It's hard economic reality, and people need to consider things like this when they talk about never going back to it was before.

I watched a news release a few days ago. A restaurant owners association stated that according to their figures 18% of the closed restaurants will close for business permanently. In Canada. In a month that figure will be worse and in several months the closure rate will be horrendous.