What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[carlob]

https://www.newsweek.com/anti-paras...-help-stop-coronavirus-new-study-says-1496083

 

[MarcT]

I have perhaps an inconvenient question with respect to any possible flattening of the curve that may be going on in Italy or Spain. To what extent does the loss of the population contribute to the flattening of the curve? It seems to me that, with so many deaths occurring in some of these areas, there are simply less people who can be infected.

Another question is, in the absence of a vaccine, at what point does the total number of people who have been exposed to the virus obviate the need to continue an economic shut down? Say, for example, that 20% of the population has now been exposed. Will continued social distancing policies do any good?

 

[Lao Lu]

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

View attachment 57183

Three beautiful spring days here in Beijing....many more people walking outside and even some small shops have reopened, including some hair salons. I guess we will soon see whether this malady has been brought to heel or not.....knock on wood.

 

[pavuol]

Not that it really matters, but who owns this mansion?

FYI, I accidentally tripped over an article about this "home"

Bruce Makowsky (born 1956)[1] is an American real estate developer and entrepreneur. In 2017, he set the record for the most expensive home listed in the United States by listing a home he developed in Bel Air on the market for $250 million[2], which ultimately sold for $94 million in October 2019. [3]

12 bedrooms and 21 bathrooms: Bel-Air mega-mansion sells for $94 million

 

[carlob]

I have perhaps an inconvenient question with respect to any possible flattening of the curve that may be going on in Italy or Spain. To what extent does the loss of the population contribute to the flattening of the curve? It seems to me that, with so many deaths occurring in some of these areas, there are simply less people who can be infected.

Another question is, in the absence of a vaccine, at what point does the total number of people who have been exposed to the virus obviate the need to continue an economic shut down? Say, for example, that 20% of the population has now been exposed. Will continued social distancing policies do any good?

Lumbardy has about 11 million of people (or maybe 14 I don't remember), we had 8k deaths in that region.

 

[leftside]

I have perhaps an inconvenient question with respect to any possible flattening of the curve that may be going on in Italy or Spain. To what extent does the loss of the population contribute to the flattening of the curve? It seems to me that, with so many deaths occurring in some of these areas, there are simply less people who can be infected.

You've fallen into the media hysteria trap. Whilst "so many death"/thousands of deaths is truly terrible, it is a very, very low percentage of the overall population of Italy or Spain.

 

[maty]

I have perhaps an inconvenient question with respect to any possible flattening of the curve that may be going on in Italy or Spain. To what extent does the loss of the population contribute to the flattening of the curve? It seems to me that, with so many deaths occurring in some of these areas, there are simply less people who can be infected.

Another question is, in the absence of a vaccine, at what point does the total number of people who have been exposed to the virus obviate the need to continue an economic shut down? Say, for example, that 20% of the population has now been exposed. Will continued social distancing policies do any good?

The flattening has been accomplished by reducing mobility to a minimum this week (and next week). Then it will return to the situation of the first two weeks, with greater mobility.

The economy must be reactivated. It is assumed that the pressure will have decreased greatly in hospital and ICU care, being able to attend to patients with other diseases.

It is clear to me that much more people have died than the official data, say 80% more. It is difficult to know at the moment. In other countries, with fewer official deaths, the multiple is sure to be higher.

The vast majority have died without entering the ICU. And then there are those who have died outside the hospital, from the coronavirus and other ailments that have not been properly managed.

Until there is effective treatment, a certain number of additional daily deaths will have to be assumed. It must be very difficult to decide when to focus on the economy. We expect a beastly indebtedness, unaffordable without the help of the US and the ECB. A rescue of Italy and Spain will be necessary. I hope that this time they will impose conditions that will force the Spanish economy to be truly healthy. With these Spanish rulers and their possible successors, I am very pessimistic. There is enormous superfluous non-productive spending, just to maintain the political caste that lives at the expense of the population. As said, a mediocre society elects also mediocre rulers and representatives.

 

[MarcT]

You've fallen into the media hysteria trap. Whilst "so many death"/thousands of deaths is truly terrible, it is a very, very low percentage of the overall population of Italy or Spain.

The flattening has been accomplished by reducing mobility to a minimum this week (and next week). Then it will return to the situation of the first two weeks, with greater mobility.

The economy must be reactivated. It is assumed that the pressure will have decreased greatly in hospital and ICU care, being able to attend to patients with other diseases.

It is clear to me that much more people have died than the official data, say 80% more. It is difficult to know at the moment. In other countries, with fewer official deaths, the multiple is sure to be higher.

The vast majority have died without entering the ICU. And then there are those who have died outside the hospital, from the coronavirus and other ailments that have not been properly managed.

Until there is effective treatment, a certain number of additional daily deaths will have to be assumed. It must be very difficult to decide when to focus on the economy. We expect a beastly indebtedness, unaffordable without the help of the US and the ECB. A rescue of Italy and Spain will be necessary. I hope that this time they will impose conditions that will force the Spanish economy to be truly healthy. With these Spanish rulers and their possible successors, I am very pessimistic. There is enormous superfluous non-productive spending, just to maintain the political caste that lives at the expense of the population. As said, a mediocre society elects also mediocre rulers and representatives.

Thanks. We've been locked down through the END of April here in my county in Texas. And the threats of legal action from the authorities keep escalating. I will comply with the county "stay-at-home" order for that time period, but I make no promises after that. As far as I know, our constitution has not been abrogated or abolished here, and I am not going to relinquish my very freedom over this virus.

As you say, the economy MUST be opened back up, and before not too much longer. Otherwise, there will be no way to maintain any semblance of our way of life and standard of living. Poverty, with its attendant adverse sociological effects, can and will kill as many or more than the virus. I spoke yesterday with the owner of the gym where I exercise, and he doesn't sound all that confident that his business will survive this. It's so sad because he is a fantastic guy and business owner. He told me to just not pay my April payment and we'll see what happens in May.

 

[maty]

Sant Pau recibe las primeras máscaras de buceo adaptadas para los sanitarios
[Spanish] https://www.elperiodico.com/es/soci...-buceo-adaptadas-coronavirus-covid-19-7917685

Sant Pau receives the first diving masks adapted for health workers
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200404/sant-pau-mascarillas-buceo-adaptadas-coronavirus-covid-19-7917685

[ These are Decatlhon diving masks (a product that the sports brand recalled to donate to the fight against the coronavirus) with a 3D air filter printed by the MOS company. The union of both would ensure 99% efficiency in terms of protection, since it combines facial protection (avoids any direct contact of infectious agents with the face) and air protection (blocks even possible pathogens that are transmitted by air). ]

The original Decatlhon snorkel mask:

 

[Frank Dernie]

Thanks. We've been locked down through the END of April here in my county in Texas. And the threats of legal action from the authorities keep escalating. I will comply with the county "stay-at-home" order for that time period, but I make no promises after that. As far as I know, our constitution has not been abrogated or abolished here, and I am not going to relinquish my very freedom over this virus.

As you say, the economy MUST be opened back up, and before not too much longer. Otherwise, there will be no way to maintain any semblance of our way of life and standard of living. Poverty, with its attendant adverse sociological effects, can and will kill as many or more than the virus. I spoke yesterday with the owner of the gym where I exercise, and he doesn't sound all that confident that his business will survive this. It's so sad because he is a fantastic guy and business owner. He told me to just not pay my April payment and we'll see what happens in May.

" freedom" is not absolute.
If you decide the government is useless and giving bad advice and it turns out you start spreading the virus your freedom will destroy somebody else's.
Twas ever thus.

 

[MarcT]

" freedom" is not absolute.
If you decide the government is useless and giving bad advice and it turns out you start spreading the virus your freedom will destroy somebody else's.
Twas ever thus.

Yes, but there will always be viruses and other illnesses. There has always been some spread of the seasonal flu and other illnesses in the US, and we have not given up our freedom over that, have we? We just have to accept that there will be some degree of spread of some diseases. We lost 80,000 Americans during the 2017/2018 flu season and we did not close the economy, did we? There is not, and never will be, a risk free world in which to live. Like I said, this confinement has to stop, and not too long from now. It's just the way it has to be.

 

[Laserjock]

Yes, but there will always be viruses and other illnesses. There has always been some spread of the seasonal flu and other illnesses in the US, and we have not given up our freedom over that, have we? We just have to accept that there will be some degree of spread of some diseases. We lost 80,000 Americans during the 2017/2018 flu season and we did not close the economy, did we? There is not, and never will be, a risk free world in which to live. Like I said, this confinement has to stop, and not too long from now. It's just the way it has to be.

When a vaccine is available.
This is a unique situation.

 

[MarcT]

When a vaccine is available.
This is a unique situation.

Are you serious? They are talking 12 to 18 months for a vaccine. Being locked down that long is not going to fly in the US. No possible way.

 

[Laserjock]

Are you serious? They are talking 12 to 18 months for a vaccine. Being locked down that long is not going to fly in the US. No possible way.

I’m being serious in the way you’re thinking about the flu.

Hopefully the stuff we’re doing until end of April and being more sun of summertime coming soon will help knock it down to manageable until then.
It’s a catch 22 situation now, but you have to be smart about it.
I realize the situation is multifaceted but who wants to go out in this mess?

I’m lucky I’m that I’m getting paid to be home because of my specialty and we only have 8 positive cases in our county for the last 3 days. (South Texas small town life)

 

[danadam]

This is the main reason I'm not vaccinated since 1989.... and believe it or not I've not seen a doctor because of sickness until today... same for my wife.... and we've not absorbed products made by BigPharma since then.

So in other words you exploit herd immunity provided by others. Well, ok (not really), but why does it sound like you boast about it?

 

[chlipong]

Sant Pau receives the first diving masks adapted for health workers
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200404/sant-pau-mascarillas-buceo-adaptadas-coronavirus-covid-19-7917685

Unfortunately, it seems that it is not an anti-fog mask. Patri probably just put it up 10 seconds before the photo was taken, the 3 others will barely see 1 minute later.

 

[MarcT]

I’m being serious in the way you’re thinking about the flu.

Hopefully the stuff we’re doing until end of April and being more sun of summertime coming soon will help knock it down to manageable until then.
It’s a catch 22 situation now, but you have to be smart about it.
I realize the situation is multifaceted but who wants to go out in this mess?

I’m lucky I’m that I’m getting paid to be home because of my specialty and we only have 8 positive cases in our county for the last 3 days. (South Texas small town life)

Yes, like I said above, I'm willing to comply with this stay-at-home order for the rest of April, but I make no guarantee after that. Don't get me wrong, I am scared of this virus, as it seems to be incredibly communicable and potentially lethal, especially for someone of my age. But I'm also afraid of losing my freedom and way of life. I'm also hoping that hot weather will be of some benefit. We'll have to reassess at the end of the month.

 

[JustJones]

Freedom to wander about wherever one chooses during a pandemic is a matter of public health. Here in the US there are federal and state laws that cover health emergencies. The federal government did impose and enforce large-scale isolation and quarantine during the influenza (“Spanish Flu”) pandemic in 1918–1919.

 

[Frank Dernie]

Yes, like I said above, I'm willing to comply with this stay-at-home order for the rest of April, but I make no guarantee after that. Don't get me wrong, I am scared of this virus, as it seems to be incredibly communicable and potentially lethal, especially for someone of my age. But I'm also afraid of losing my freedom and way of life. I'm also hoping that hot weather will be of some benefit. We'll have to reassess at the end of the month.

I will go by what the analyses shows is necessary not what people hope will be OK.
I know we live in a time where expert opinion is ignored if it doesn't confirm non-expert's unwavering opinion , I am an old bloke disappointed by the way the internet has gone though.
It may not be the way of life you lose but life itself.

 

[MarcT]

I will go by what the analyses shows is necessary not what people hope will be OK.
I know we live in a time where expert opinion is ignored if it doesn't confirm non-expert's unwavering opinion , I am an old bloke disappointed by the way the internet has gone though.
It may not be the way of life you lose but life itself.

The problem with that is that, throughout history, with modeling and predictions, "expert opinion" often turns out to be wrong. Even now, the predictions of how many will need to be hospitalized in NY have been off by a factor of about four. Let's reassess this thing in May.