What does it take to succesfully transition to a green energy economy?

[Willem]

Maybe bring control of the grid back into public hands? The Dutch high voltage grid is owned by a private company whose shares are 100% owned by the Dutch state. There is extensive planning to increase grid capacity but wind and solar power generation are increasing so fast that there may be temporary capacity issues.

 

[robwpdx]

Except that is not what is happening. As green sources get added the old capacity is being retired so there is not enough backup. Texas and California are prime examples .... eveything is good until unusual weather and then the grids collapse. The economics of green energy don't work out if you have to back them up 100% so reliabilty suffers. Unfortuneltly people die when the grid collapses during very cold or very hot weather.

To a degree you need 1:1 backup for wind, and to a lesser extent solar.

Every generator has a capacity factor, which would be a year average, shown in the charts others have posted. In practice it is modeled very rigorously at an hour level forecast out 20 years for climate change for each generator. It is modeled for thermal plants too - coal, gas and nuclear. Coal and gas have had unexpected losses with weather extremes inconsistent with their forecast capacity patterns.

It is modeled probabilistically with an acceptable loss of load probability which is never zero.

California and Texas have a problem in market design. They both put faith they can buy energy at the last moment, 5-15 minutes ahead. Nearby utilities to both, subject to the same weather, were fine. The recent East freeze is a better example of a low load forecast not taking into account extreme weather and some thermal plants having inexpected weather-related outages. It will be thoroughly investigated.

There is still hydro to be built in Canada, and there are still power lines to be built to bring it into the US. There is also thinking about a national grid to move more energy over longer distances.

https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/seams.html

It is all an important discussion for the public to have.

 

[Inner Space]

This discussion reminds me of the old Chinese maxim - Q: What's the best time to plant a tree? A: Fifty years ago.

 

[Timcognito]

The grid No. Cal was intermittently shut down by PG&E during high fire danger very few or no brown outs. The power supply had nothing to do with it and in fact the aging poorly maintained grid was the cause wildfire that they caused that led to huge lawsuits over loss of property that they lost. The solution CYA and shut down power. Can't speak to Texas problems.

 

[Marc v E]

Except that is not what is happening. As green sources get added the old capacity is being retired so there is not enough backup. Texas and California are prime examples .... eveything is good until unusual weather and then the grids collapse. The economics of green energy don't work out if you have to back them up 100% so reliabilty suffers. Unfortuneltly people die when the grid collapses during very cold or very hot weather.

Well, after reading several sources on the Texas blackout, it looks like the major cause was freezing weather which was affecting all sources of energy generation, combined with the inability to stabilize the Texas grid with power from outside Texas. It appears the Texas grid is stand alone, which makes it very susceptable to blackouts during extreme events.

1 of the sources I consulted: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-texas-wind-turbines-explain-idUSKBN2AJ2EI

 

[robwpdx]

Well, after reading several sources on the Texas blackout, it looks like the major cause was freezing weather which was affecting all sources of energy generation, combined with the inability to stabalise the Texas grid with power from outside Texas. It appears the Texas grid is stand alone, which makes it very susceptable to blackouts during extreme events.

1 of the sources I consulted: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-texas-wind-turbines-explain-idUSKBN2AJ2EI

It will be studied in depth by a team of national grid engineers which will take about a year and the report will be released publicly.

Here is an example and a fun read: https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Augu...on DL/NERC_Final_Blackout_Report_07_13_04.pdf

The grid has a huge number for sensors and recorders to allow a detailed reconstruction of failures.

The state of Texas does not like regulation, so some of their thermal plants had freezing equipment problems which regulation would identify and correct. Another problem Texas had is that some of the private Internet systems used to control even renewable generators did not have their own backup power for the communications, so they could not run.

 

[Triliza]

I don't know, when I read stories like this I remember the whole recycling fairy-tale we were told so whoever sold plastic continued doing so, as long as we are sold in recycling, we have faith in plastic too. Mind you I am taking recycling very seriously, but I fully understand it's not an viable model. It would be better if they had restricted the usage of plastic in the first place.

There is no doubt that all renewable and green sources are way better that the old way, but they still have their own impact on the environment. We need to drastically reduce consumption, which mean we need to change how our economies work, what we now perceive as economic growth and the investing for quick profits. With all the progress we have seen, one would think we would be in heaven, but imho quality of life has gone down in many aspects, food quality, air, water, general health, and in some countries life expectancy has gone down by a couple of years (before covid).

 

[Marc v E]

I don't know, when I read stories like this I remember the whole recycling fairy-tale we were told so whoever sold plastic continued doing so, as long as we are sold in recycling, we have faith in plastic too. Mind you I am taking recycling very seriously, but I fully understand it's not an viable model. It would be better if they have restricted the usage of plastic in the first place.

There is no doubt that all renewable and green sources are way better that the old way, but they still have their own impact on the environment. We need to drastically reduce consumption, which mean we need to change how our economies work, what we now perceive as economic growth and the investing for quick profits. With all the progress we have seen, one would think we would be in heaven, but imho quality of life has gone down in many aspects, food quality, air, water, general health, and in some countries life expectancy has gone done by a couple of years (before covid).

According to the report in the 1st post we'll need to generate 50% of the energy we do today, if we use renewables like wind, solar and nuclear. Even with population and economic growth that would probably mean a reduction in energy generation if we switch to renewables.

I still find this mind boggling. I guess I personally find it hard to come to terms with all the negative news and resistance to renewable energy.

 

[abdo123]

As of now, "green" energy needs subsidies

For around more than a year now solar and wind energy are slightly cheaper per Kw to produce than other sources. Which is the reason why green energy is actually becoming a thing.

If it wasn't profitable we would be having a mad max dystopian future by 2100.

 

[Triliza]

According to the report in the 1st post we'll need to generate 50% of the energy we do today, if we use renewables like wind, solar and nuclear. Even with population and economic growth that would probably mean a reduction in energy generation if we switch to renewables.

I still find this mind boggling. I guess I personally find it hard to come to terms with all the negative news and resistance to renewable energy.

Sorry man, I didn't intend to inject this thread with pessimism and negativity. What I was trying to say is that the way we produce energy isn't the only problem, even if we had 100% free green energy, if we continue to use it like we do today, we would still had a lot of problems. Things are connected and we need to see the big picture. But yes, I support renewable energy, and definitely we need to have conversation like this, so please continue.

 

[CrustyToad]

What I find problematic in all these discussions is that energy = electricity. In Europe where I know the numbers, at least half of the energy demand is for heating /cooling. That is never discussed as part of the green energy transition.

In any case reneables also have an impact and require materials that are not abundant. Dont get me wrong it's great how far solar and wind have come

Levelized cost of energy by technology

The average cost per unit of energy generated across the lifetime of a new power plant. This data is expressed in US dollars per kilowatt-hour. It is adjusted for inflation but does not account for differences in the cost of living between countries.

ourworldindata.org

(by the way the website is a great resource for energy and other data facts)

But they are intermittent so storage is a requirement. Large scale storage at the grid level is still quite far but I am cautiously optimistic on that

 

[robwpdx]

What I find problematic in all these discussions is that energy = electricity. In Europe where I know the numbers, at least half of the energy demand is for heating /cooling. That is never discussed as part of the green energy transition.

In any case reneables also have an impact and require materials that are not abundant. Dont get me wrong it's great how far solar and wind have come

Levelized cost of energy by technology

The average cost per unit of energy generated across the lifetime of a new power plant. This data is expressed in US dollars per kilowatt-hour. It is adjusted for inflation but does not account for differences in the cost of living between countries.

ourworldindata.org

(by the way the website is a great resource for energy and other data facts)

But they are intermittent so storage is a requirement. Large scale storage at the grid level is still quite far but I am cautiously optimistic on that

Yes. The theory is beneficial electrification to phase out fossil fuels. So all building heating and cooling, and most transportation would switch to electric systems and the efficiency would be improved.

We are still working on some kind of synthetic jet fuel, and process heat for ore to iron, and limestone to concrete, and probably some bulk glass making.

 

[Marc v E]

What I find problematic in all these discussions is that energy = electricity. In Europe where I know the numbers, at least half of the energy demand is for heating /cooling. That is never discussed as part of the green energy transition.

In any case reneables also have an impact and require materials that are not abundant. Dont get me wrong it's great how far solar and wind have come

Levelized cost of energy by technology

The average cost per unit of energy generated across the lifetime of a new power plant. This data is expressed in US dollars per kilowatt-hour. It is adjusted for inflation but does not account for differences in the cost of living between countries.

ourworldindata.org

(by the way the website is a great resource for energy and other data facts)

But they are intermittent so storage is a requirement. Large scale storage at the grid level is still quite far but I am cautiously optimistic on that

I think the heating/cooling part with renewables is mostly covered through heat pumps. These give 3 units (kw) of heat for 1 in energy.

The real challenge imo then becomes the older houses and buildings. These don't have the insulation required. They don't reach a comfortable room temperature because they leak too much heat.

To be honest this costs several €10.000's to fix and is a challenge for middle incomes, and unsurmountable challenge for lower incomes.This is especially true for countries that heavily relied on heating by gas and have cold winters. That's why I think heat pumps and insulation will be mostly done in new buildings and require government subsidies if we really want to reach net zero.

If I were to think of a solution I would make rules for new houses to have heat pumps (which we have where I live) and make rules that require heat pumps and insulation when you buy an old house. There is a government tax associated with buying a house in my country, which amounts to something like 5 to 8% of the total amount, which is a lot. Giving back a part of this tax by the required expenses for insulation and heat pumps, would make sense imo.

 

[CrustyToad]

I think the heating/cooling part with renewables is mostly covered through heat pumps. These give 3 units (kw) of heat for 1 in energy.

The real challenge imo then becomes the older houses and buildings. These don't have the insulation required. They don't reach a comfortable room temperature because they leak too much heat.

To be honest this costs several €10.000's to fix and is a challenge for middle incomes, and unsurmountable challenge for lower incomes.This is especially true for countries that heavily relied on heating by gas and have cold winters. That's why I think heat pumps and insulation will be mostly done in new buildings and require government subsidies if we really want to reach net zero.

If I were to think of a solution I would make rules for new houses to have heat pumps (which we have where I live) and make rules that require heat pumps and insulation when you buy an old house. There is a government tax associated with buying a house in my country, which amounts to something like 5 to 8% of the total amount, which is a lot. Giving back a part of this tax by the required expenses for insulation and heat pumps, would make sense imo.

Heat pumps and electrified heating in general will put a massive additional load to already old and ineffecicient main grids. Most grids as shared before are simply struggling to cope with increased amounts of renewable production. Add in the extra requirements for heating (these loads were not there before) and the situation becomes even more grim.

Plus heat pumps are only as renewable as your electricity mix. Which is not that much in most countries.

In households in latitudes like Germany for example heat demand is about 65% of primary energy use. And hot water another 10-15%. So led lights are practically a joke in terms of energy savings.

There is still a very long way to go. There is a lot of technical innovation and progress of individual components but the energy systems part and infrastructure is massively lacking and will require significant public investments to even try to keep up.

But things are moving and it is much more prominent now than it has been 2 years ago for example. Exciting times

 

[Marc v E]

@Jim Taylor @CrustyToad I agree. It's the most challenging part. I'm having doubts about the feasibility of heating by heat pumps as a complete solution by 2050 myself.

 

[Marc v E]

Iirc Sweden and/or Norway have a high percentage of heat pumps. I will have a look to see what I can find.

 

[JaMaSt]

https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissions-china-goes-on-a-coal-spree

 

[Blumlein 88]

In which climate would this be true for the heating aspect? At which temperature do heat pumps become ineffective, and how would the insulated space be heated from that temperature on down?

Just asking for a friend.

Jim

Most heat pumps are fine without other heat sources until 15 degrees F. Some are good to between 0 and 5 degrees F. Even a little below that additional heat from gas or resistance heat strips will allow it to work at lower temps. Most of the heat may be from the heat pump even as the other heat is in use. So I'd say anywhere you don't have extended periods below those temp levels. There are some caveats. Your home should be reasonably snug and insulated. If it is an old drafty house with gaps around the doors, single pane windows and no insulation you might raise effective temps a bit.

Some makers are saying they can be used even in artic regions. I'm guessing maybe that is in a home much more insulated than normal. And you'll need larger heat pump too. Whether that is cheaper or not depends upon electricity and gas/oil costs where you are. Some of course want to leave you only with the heat pump option due to carbon emissions.

 

[Blumlein 88]

Arctic Heat pumps - Cold Climate Air to Water Heat Pumps for Homes and Pools

Arctic series cold climate heat pumps are both advanced and cost effective air source heat pumps with the ability to heat your home, office, pool and more.

www.arcticheatpumps.com

These claim to work down to -22F or -30C.

 

[Doodski]

Arctic Heat pumps - Cold Climate Air to Water Heat Pumps for Homes and Pools

Arctic series cold climate heat pumps are both advanced and cost effective air source heat pumps with the ability to heat your home, office, pool and more.

www.arcticheatpumps.com

These claim to work down to -22F or -30C.

That is cold, Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr... I experience that kind of cold for months each winter and worse. I am amazed there are warmer molecules available. That's how it works?