What does it take to succesfully transition to a green energy economy?

[Keith_W]

Exactly what your great-great-grandfather would have said about his horse vs. the Model T.

Oh realllllly. OK then, i'll take the Model T, you can take the horse. Zurich to Vienna. $10,000 prize. Easy money for you.

 

[Willem]

Here is the university man who wrote about high speed trains. I am an economic historian with a lot to say about technological change, energy and economic growth. I was an older father with young kids and we did not have a car at the time (spent our money on the design of one of the town's most beautiful and valuable modern houses - you can only spend your money once). It was not a real problem at all and the children loved train travel.
One of the important aspects of the issue is that private convenience is not all that matters. CO2 emissions do matter. So the question is if an EV is good enough. I would say almost, and I am not alone. A quarter of Dutch company cars are now fully electric, and many of the larger and more visible companies now insist that their entire fleet should be electric.
Let us not forget that the discussion is about a transition. EVs will be an increasing part of that, but so will be wind turbines, a beefed up grid, high speed trains, restrictions on flying, steel factories running on hydrogen etc.

 

[symphara]

Here is the university man who wrote about high speed trains. I am an economic historian with a lot to say about technological change, energy and economic growth. I was an older father with young kids and we did not have a car at the time (spent our money on the design of one of the town's most beautiful and valuable modern houses - you can only spend your money once). It was not a real problem at all and the children loved train travel.
One of the important aspects of the issue is that private convenience is not all that matters. CO2 emissions do matter. So the question is if an EV is good enough. I would say almost, and I am not alone. A quarter of Dutch company cars are now fully electric, and many of the larger and more visible companies now insist that their entire fleet should be electric.
Let us not forget that the discussion is about a transition. EVs will be an increasing part of that, but so will be wind turbines, a beefed up grid, high speed trains, restrictions on flying, steel factories running on hydrogen etc.

City living isn't the same as rural living. I also biked my way though a city when I was younger, and worn out my Oyster card in London. That's not everybody everywhere.

Again, "good enough" is an all-encompassing term that I will disagree with. And the market disagrees with it too. It's picking up, sure thing, but EVs are still a minority purchase. People are rational when it comes to cars, and a car that just plain fails to do part of its job isn't that great.

This is a forced transition to a half-baked solution (EVs) with, simultaneously, a closure of nuclear power plants, which is stupid, no other way to say it.

And believe it or not, I am on your side of the transition. Me and others are trying to get a large power line to our (shared) underground parking, so we can put EV charging points to anyone who'd want one. All I can say is, it's Sisyphean work.

 

[Willem]

We deliberately opted to live in town and within easy cycling distance from work and schools. We decided to postpone the switch to an EV and opted to invest heavily in upgraded home insulation and a heatpump. Fortunately we have a large garden and parking space on our own driveway so it will be easy to install our private charging point. It will happen.

 

[Ornette]

Oh realllllly. OK then, i'll take the Model T, you can take the horse. Zurich to Vienna. $10,000 prize. Easy money for you.

How fast did Model T's go on bumpy dirt roads (or no roads)? We're not talking about doing such a race today.

 

[Ornette]

Well, he's dead, not silly. You don't know anything about him or his life. But sure, keep the ad hominems if they make you feel like a big man.

You lack basic reading comprehension.

I'm writing metaphorically. But yes, people who assert that ICE cars are in any way superior to EVs will look silly in a generation or two given current technology trends. And thanks for the gratuitous ad hominem, by the way...

EVs don't make sense for the title of the thread unless you have the energy to support it. If you charge your EV using coal-generated electricity, as Germany is doing to a sad extent, that's hardly a step forward. Let's see how the EU ICE ban from 2035 will go, when we simply lack the infrastructure and electricity generation capacity to sustain that transition.

I'm so tired of this bogus argument about "charging your EV with coal-generated electricity". Gasoline refineries consume huge quantities of electricity, also presumably from these dirty sources. Furthermore, my wife and I are in the process of installing eighteen solar panels on the roof of our modest northern California home, which will supply enough energy to run the house and provide about 10,000 miles of electric driving yearly. I realize that Switzerland (and northern Europe) gets far less sunshine than we do, but you probably have more hydroelectric and wind potential.

In Europe most households have one car. It varies a lot by country and rural/urban setting.

Europe also has one of the best rail networks in the world. I could imagine myself living there comfortably without a car. That's not true in the US outside of major metropolises.

 

[Willem]

I was thinking about our own experience. People have to take into account sunk cost, the remaining life expectancy of equipment of one kind or another, and make an educated guess about future technology and future prices. What I see among my friends that, just like us, they wait until their existing car is old and tired, when their heating system shows signs of impending trouble etc.
In our case we knew we would upgrade the roof insulation if and when the roofing material would need to be replaced. That would be the most cost effective moment, and that moment arrived two years ago when the roof started leaking. Similarly, our heater is now 17 years old and is showing signs of age, so we ordered a heat pump system. Of course, insulation material will be better in five years time (probably not much) and heat pump heating systems will be better and cheaper as well (maybe quite a bit) but our moment is now. Our ICE car probably still has some 5-10 years of remaining life expectancy, so it can stay. If it dies this year it will probably be replaced by an EV, but in private lease because I expect technology to improve quite a bit. And yes we will have to make a few extra stops on our long distance drives to Italy, but I don't particularly mind. We always take a break after a few hours, and we don't like driving fast, which is indeed a no no with an EV.

 

[Willem]

I'm writing metaphorically. But yes, people who assert that ICE cars are in any way superior to EVs will look silly in a generation or two given current technology trends. And thanks for the gratuitous ad hominem, by the way...

I'm so tired of this bogus argument about "charging your EV with coal-generated electricity". Gasoline refineries consume huge quantities of electricity, also presumably from these dirty sources. Furthermore, my wife and I are in the process of installing eighteen solar panels on the roof of our modest northern California home, which will supply enough energy to run the house and provide about 10,000 miles of electric driving yearly. I realize that Switzerland (and northern Europe) gets far less sunshine than we do, but you probably have more hydroelectric and wind potential.

Europe also has one of the best rail networks in the world. I could imagine myself living there comfortably without a car. That's not true in the US outside of major metropolises.

As for solar panels, the issue is not so much that we have less sunshine (today our panels produced vastly more than we consume) but the fact that our winters are so dark. The good news is that offshore wind power more than compensates.

 

[JonK99]

I just moved into a new subdivision of 40 high end homes in Massachusetts built in 2020-2022. Every single one built with propane heat when they could have had heat pumps for a relatively small incremental cost. It's going to take some more heavy handed regulation to drag the building industry into the green future as they clearly don't think it's profitable today.

 

[symphara]

But yes, people who assert that ICE cars are in any way superior to EVs will look silly in a generation or two given current technology trends.

Well in a generation or two things will change and we'll see what does what. Doesn't stop you from looking silly *right now*, does it?

I'm so tired of this bogus argument about "charging your EV with coal-generated electricity".

Again, poor reading comprehension. I don't even know how to respond to this latest stupidity. Let me spell it out for you - I don't care that much about the coal, that's not important (although there's India, China etc). But here in Europe we're shutting down our nuclear reactors. Germany just did it. In Switzerland the last one is to be closed in about 10 years. That's 30% of our power generation gone. Hydro we already have as much as it can bear.

Europe also has one of the best rail networks in the world. I could imagine myself living there comfortably without a car. That's not true in the US outside of major metropolises.

Well you're welcome to come live comfortably where I live, without a car. Won't get you far, pun intended. There's a bus every 30 minutes. Good luck with any emergency.

 

[Timcognito]

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[Willem]

The EU has just agreed on expanding the pricing and trading of CO2 emission permits. This is an important tool to use market mechanisms to stimulate the transition, particularly in heavy industry, shipping, flying etc. It will include a mechanism to prevent unfair competition from dirty non EU producers. The additional income will be used to support those less well off to join the transition. The latter will be left to individual countries, and could involve home insulation or heat pump subsidies for social housing, income support, and many other options. The target is to reduce emissions by 55% in 2030.

 

[JktHifi]

EV strongly very good for the environment. Combustion engine not so good until now. But, I have to take care myself. It’s my own safety.
Please don’t tell about this to anyone outside this forum because combustion engine is not good for the environment.

 

[Marc v E]

The EU has just agreed on expanding the pricing and trading of CO2 emission permits. This is an important tool to use market mechanisms to stimulate the transition, particularly in heavy industry, shipping, flying etc. It will include a mechanism to prevent unfair competition from dirty non EU producers. The additional income will be used to support those less well off to join the transition. The latter will be left to individual countries, and could involve home insulation or heat pump subsidies for social housing, income support, and many other options. The target is to reduce emissions by 55% in 2030.

@Willem could you clarify the workings and economic implications of using CO2 emission permits and enable trading between market parties? I remember reading a while ago it's cheaper and has better results than subsidies. I could be wrong, but if my memory is correct, it could be interesting to know a bit in the light of the thread's subject.

 

[Willem]

It is a classic tool from the economics toolkit and used quite commonly. I will try to dig up some information on the specifics of this case.

 

[Gorgonzola]

Again, poor reading comprehension. I don't even know how to respond to this latest stupidity. Let me spell it out for you - I don't care that much about the coal, that's not important (although there's India, China etc). But here in Europe we're shutting down our nuclear reactors. Germany just did it. In Switzerland the last one is to be closed in about 10 years. That's 30% of our power generation gone. Hydro we already have as much as it can bear.

So how do you feel about Germany closing down nuclear electricity generation? To it sound collosally stupid to me. The way I've heard it, renewable energy projects have managed to replace the nuclear capacity but have made no dent in the use of fossil fuels for generation.

I'm all in favor of maximizing the use of renewable sources but base power has to come from somewhere. Nuclear is probably the best for the foreseeable future. I've already pointed out that where I live generation is nuclear generates almost 60% of a electricity and had for many years without any serious incidents ... electrical powers generation in Ontario, 2019. (Note the over 90% of your power comes from non-greenhouse gas sources.) ...

All factors considered, nuclear power generation is one of the very safest and most environmentally friendly methods ...

 

[Gorgonzola]

The EU has just agreed on expanding the pricing and trading of CO2 emission permits. This is an important tool to use market mechanisms to stimulate the transition, particularly in heavy industry, shipping, flying etc. It will include a mechanism to prevent unfair competition from dirty non EU producers. The additional income will be used to support those less well off to join the transition. The latter will be left to individual countries, and could involve home insulation or heat pump subsidies for social housing, income support, and many other options. The target is to reduce emissions by 55% in 2030.

It strikes me that "green credits" are useful but would be most useful if (a) rigorously enforced, and (b) earned within a specific region. I suspect they are less useful where those credits are earned in some distant country where a monoculture of fast-growing but otherwise useless trees are planted.

 

[Willem]

This is not compensation credits but a finite and shrinking quantity of emission permissions. These are given to existing emitters. If they manage to clean up their process they can sell some of them to others. So companies have to balance the profit on selling permits to the cost of investment in emission reduction. The advantage of using the market for this is that you get the financially most efficient solution in the market as a whole.

 

[Keith_W]

So how do you feel about Germany closing down nuclear electricity generation? To it sound collosally stupid to me.

Agree. After closing down nuclear, they have to import gas from Russia. Really smart move. Replace a zero emissions technology with high carbon, and tie themselves to the Russians at the same time.

 

[Willem]

However, they had a problem. The reactors needed new fuel rods and those were not available by the time Russian energy supplies dried up. By the way, Germany no longer impots Russian gas.
I agree it would have been better if they had decided two years ago to maintain a more diverse energy mix. But to be fair they also expected gas supplies from the Netherlands but those did not materialize because of earthquake problems. Finally, electricity supplies from France were hampered because their reactors had maintenance issues. So it was a very unfortunate convergence of problems. In hindsight we are all smarter. The good news is that Europe survived the winter quite comfortably.