The wealth-building thread

[levimax]

Bill Miller may hold the record (15) for consecutive years outperforming the S&P 500, but even the smartest people make mistakes sooner or later.

Even Warren Buffett is not doing so hot.... trailing the S&P for 5, 10, and 15 years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/how...ll-battle-against-the-sp-500-is-changing.html

 

[Jim Matthews]

Interesting choice of towns, that's where my son just bought a house (in the pandemic) with his new bride. Lovely place.

He's fortunate. Recent sales in Fairhaven were all subject to escalation clauses, where the listing price was just the "reserve" before bidding began in earnest.

Steepest town I ever visited, and I lived in Vail (a lifetime ago).

 

[MRC01]

Pesky Math.
https://livingwage.mit.edu/metros/13380

Calling it "math" is misleading as that implies an objectivity that does not exist. It is data collection, rife with assumptions in data selection and presentation. Its subjectivity is demonstrated by the fact that people with conflicting, even opposite views, can all present data to support their views.

 

[HiFidFan]

Calling it "math" is misleading as that implies an objectivity that does not exist. It is data collection, rife with assumptions in data selection and presentation. Its subjectivity is demonstrated by the fact that people with conflicting, even opposite views, can all present data to support their views.

When I lived in Encinitas, CA (early 1990s) I shared an apartment with a friend, cost was $600 month, $300 each. I just looked it up, that same apartment currently costs $2,800 month. Is something misrepresented in this data?

 

[MRC01]

When I lived in Encinitas, CA (early 1990s) I shared an apartment with a friend, cost was $600 month, $300 each. I just looked it up, that same apartment currently costs $2,800 month. Is something misrepresented in this data?

Of course. Every individual anecdote, however true, is subject to sample bias.

 

[HiFidFan]

Of course. Every individual anecdote, however true, is subject to sample bias.

OK, lets cut to the chase. . . Is there be any data that you would accept? If so, please show it.

 

[MRC01]

No matter what data any of us present, we could argue endlessly about the bias & assumptions behind that data, and find other data to counter it, then repeat on that data. Endless loop. Pointless discussion.
The take-away point is to understand that all economic data is selected, computed and presented by people who have beliefs and biases. It is inherently political. That doesn't make it "right" or "wrong", just an observed fact.

 

[HiFidFan]

No matter what data any of us present, we could argue endlessly about the bias & assumptions behind that data, and find other data to counter it, then repeat on that data. Endless loop. Pointless discussion.
The take-away point is to understand that all economic data is selected, computed and presented by people who have beliefs and biases. It is inherently political. That doesn't make it "right" or "wrong", just an observed fact.

There is truth though. Somewhere. It's what we should strive for.

 

[Jim Matthews]

Calling it "math" is misleading as that implies an objectivity that does not exist. It is data collection, rife with assumptions in data selection and presentation. Its subjectivity is demonstrated by the fact that people with conflicting, even opposite views, can all present data to support their views.

Bull - $hit.

The *only* time I hear analysis involving verifiable numbers rejected outright for "political slant" is when it violates a quasi-religious belief.

http://dyingwords.net/carl-sagans-bullshit-detection-kit/

 

[Jim Matthews]

No matter what data any of us present, we could argue endlessly about the bias & assumptions behind that data, and find other data to counter it, then repeat on that data. Endless loop. Pointless discussion.
The take-away point is to understand that all economic data is selected, computed and presented by people who have beliefs and biases. It is inherently political. That doesn't make it "right" or "wrong", just an observed fact.

What a steaming load.

 

[MRC01]

...
The *only* time I hear analysis involving verifiable numbers rejected outright for "political slant" is when it violates a quadi-religious belief.
http://dyingwords.net/carl-sagans-bullshit-detection-kit/

The belief that economic data is not subject to political bias, is either naive or quasi-religious.

 

[Jim Matthews]

The belief that economic data is not subject to political bias, is either naive or quasi-religious.

That's a logical fallacy, "No true Scotsman".

You got nothing, and you're out of your depth.

 

[HiFidFan]

Congrats to your niece; wishing her many years of happiness. As for your bulging disc, damn that sucker to hell! Get well.

I suppose that GDP per capita could be an interesting metric to use, as that metric is commonly used to gauge a country's standard of living. And I suppose the purpose of minimum wage is to ensure a minimum standard of living.

Enjoy your trip; I'll continue to ruminate...

Yeah, bulging disc is quite literally a pain. Not the best time for me to be traveling/schlepping, but I'll soldier on. Thanks for the well wishes, much appreciated

 

[HiFidFan]

The belief that economic data is not subject to political bias, is either naive or quasi-religious.

I'm as cynical as anyone. All data is subject to all sorts of bias, political or otherwise, that doesn't meal all data is corrupted. I think that the data on wages and GDP over time is pretty clean.

 

[HiFidFan]

been there, done that. You have my sympathies.

Did you find any resolution for yours? Thank you sir.

 

[Chromatischism]

I'm afraid there isn't enough evidence for this across managers, he's an outlier. I dearly wish durable alpha were more possible in large cap stocks, but there just isn't good evidence (the type, for instance, we would accept in a blind test) that they can.

Yes, I responded to that earlier in the thread. The entire market is always about time periods. Times change, technology changes, regulations change, managers retire, etc. Always keep your shoes on.

Note that when it comes to work 401ks, I mostly set them and forget them. I may tilt it towards broader market trends (like skipping bonds and foreign stocks, or leaning into growth or something) but they are still funds, sometimes index funds. It's separate money I do other things with.

And always get your employer match!

 

[Chromatischism]

ROFLMAO. Nice joke! If you torture the data, it will always confess. It's politics disguised as data.

What is so controversial about staying under 30% of your income on housing expenses? That has been the advice since...a very long time. Unfortunately that number has to rise now, reducing savings, investing, and discretionary income, which negatively affects the economy as much of it is based on consumer spending.

 

[Chromatischism]

I'm on my way out the door to physical therapy appt (bulging disc )

Sorry to hear that. I had a ruptured L5/S1 disc that led to a diskectomy and replacement. Doing much better now, so it's curable.

 

[HiFidFan]

Sorry to hear that. I had a ruptured L5/S1 disc that led to a diskectomy and replacement. Doing much better now, so it's curable.

Gads! I hope it doesn't come to that.

Glad you're doing better!

 

[Chromatischism]

Yeah, I shouldn't suggest surgery is the only option. Mine actually had a rupture, so one step further.