The wealth-building thread

[MRC01]

Pesky Math.
https://livingwage.mit.edu/metros/13380

Calling it "math" is misleading as that implies an objectivity that does not exist. It is data collection, rife with assumptions in data selection and presentation. Its subjectivity is demonstrated by the fact that people with conflicting, even opposite views, can all present data to support their views.

 

[HiFidFan]

Calling it "math" is misleading as that implies an objectivity that does not exist. It is data collection, rife with assumptions in data selection and presentation. Its subjectivity is demonstrated by the fact that people with conflicting, even opposite views, can all present data to support their views.

When I lived in Encinitas, CA (early 1990s) I shared an apartment with a friend, cost was $600 month, $300 each. I just looked it up, that same apartment currently costs $2,800 month. Is something misrepresented in this data?

 

[MRC01]

When I lived in Encinitas, CA (early 1990s) I shared an apartment with a friend, cost was $600 month, $300 each. I just looked it up, that same apartment currently costs $2,800 month. Is something misrepresented in this data?

Of course. Every individual anecdote, however true, is subject to sample bias.

 

[HiFidFan]

Of course. Every individual anecdote, however true, is subject to sample bias.

OK, lets cut to the chase. . . Is there be any data that you would accept? If so, please show it.

 

[MRC01]

No matter what data any of us present, we could argue endlessly about the bias & assumptions behind that data, and find other data to counter it, then repeat on that data. Endless loop. Pointless discussion.
The take-away point is to understand that all economic data is selected, computed and presented by people who have beliefs and biases. It is inherently political. That doesn't make it "right" or "wrong", just an observed fact.

 

[HiFidFan]

No matter what data any of us present, we could argue endlessly about the bias & assumptions behind that data, and find other data to counter it, then repeat on that data. Endless loop. Pointless discussion.
The take-away point is to understand that all economic data is selected, computed and presented by people who have beliefs and biases. It is inherently political. That doesn't make it "right" or "wrong", just an observed fact.

There is truth though. Somewhere. It's what we should strive for.

 

[Jim Matthews]

Calling it "math" is misleading as that implies an objectivity that does not exist. It is data collection, rife with assumptions in data selection and presentation. Its subjectivity is demonstrated by the fact that people with conflicting, even opposite views, can all present data to support their views.

Bull - $hit.

The *only* time I hear analysis involving verifiable numbers rejected outright for "political slant" is when it violates a quasi-religious belief.

http://dyingwords.net/carl-sagans-bullshit-detection-kit/

 

[Jim Matthews]

No matter what data any of us present, we could argue endlessly about the bias & assumptions behind that data, and find other data to counter it, then repeat on that data. Endless loop. Pointless discussion.
The take-away point is to understand that all economic data is selected, computed and presented by people who have beliefs and biases. It is inherently political. That doesn't make it "right" or "wrong", just an observed fact.

What a steaming load.

 

[MRC01]

...
The *only* time I hear analysis involving verifiable numbers rejected outright for "political slant" is when it violates a quadi-religious belief.
http://dyingwords.net/carl-sagans-bullshit-detection-kit/

The belief that economic data is not subject to political bias, is either naive or quasi-religious.

 

[Jim Matthews]

The belief that economic data is not subject to political bias, is either naive or quasi-religious.

That's a logical fallacy, "No true Scotsman".

You got nothing, and you're out of your depth.

 

[HiFidFan]

Congrats to your niece; wishing her many years of happiness. As for your bulging disc, damn that sucker to hell! Get well.

I suppose that GDP per capita could be an interesting metric to use, as that metric is commonly used to gauge a country's standard of living. And I suppose the purpose of minimum wage is to ensure a minimum standard of living.

Enjoy your trip; I'll continue to ruminate...

Yeah, bulging disc is quite literally a pain. Not the best time for me to be traveling/schlepping, but I'll soldier on. Thanks for the well wishes, much appreciated

 

[HiFidFan]

The belief that economic data is not subject to political bias, is either naive or quasi-religious.

I'm as cynical as anyone. All data is subject to all sorts of bias, political or otherwise, that doesn't meal all data is corrupted. I think that the data on wages and GDP over time is pretty clean.

 

[HiFidFan]

been there, done that. You have my sympathies.

Did you find any resolution for yours? Thank you sir.

 

[Chromatischism]

I'm afraid there isn't enough evidence for this across managers, he's an outlier. I dearly wish durable alpha were more possible in large cap stocks, but there just isn't good evidence (the type, for instance, we would accept in a blind test) that they can.

Yes, I responded to that earlier in the thread. The entire market is always about time periods. Times change, technology changes, regulations change, managers retire, etc. Always keep your shoes on.

Note that when it comes to work 401ks, I mostly set them and forget them. I may tilt it towards broader market trends (like skipping bonds and foreign stocks, or leaning into growth or something) but they are still funds, sometimes index funds. It's separate money I do other things with.

And always get your employer match!

 

[Chromatischism]

ROFLMAO. Nice joke! If you torture the data, it will always confess. It's politics disguised as data.

What is so controversial about staying under 30% of your income on housing expenses? That has been the advice since...a very long time. Unfortunately that number has to rise now, reducing savings, investing, and discretionary income, which negatively affects the economy as much of it is based on consumer spending.

 

[Chromatischism]

I'm on my way out the door to physical therapy appt (bulging disc )

Sorry to hear that. I had a ruptured L5/S1 disc that led to a diskectomy and replacement. Doing much better now, so it's curable.

 

[HiFidFan]

Sorry to hear that. I had a ruptured L5/S1 disc that led to a diskectomy and replacement. Doing much better now, so it's curable.

Gads! I hope it doesn't come to that.

Glad you're doing better!

 

[Chromatischism]

Yeah, I shouldn't suggest surgery is the only option. Mine actually had a rupture, so one step further.

 

[MRC01]

I'm as cynical as anyone. All data is subject to all sorts of bias, political or otherwise, that doesn't meal all data is corrupted. I think that the data on wages and GDP over time is pretty clean.

I agree some data sets are clean enough, but even clean data is incomplete which can create a misleading picture.

One example of drawing incorrect conclusions from clean data, relates to common misunderstandings of variance and how cohorts are formed, best explained by Phil Birnbaum: http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2014/09/income-inequality-and-fed-report.html

Another example is Picketty's famous book from a few years ago. He made some conclusions from data, and while the data he used was clean as far as it went, he failed to consider the complete picture which undermined his conclusions.

Another example is studies on minimum wage. UW and Berkeley both studied the impact of Seattle's minimum wage, and drew opposite conclusions by applying different methods and assumptions to the same data. In fact, the city of Seattle first asked UW to do the study and when they didn't like its conclusions, they asked Berkeley to publish another.

My point, that even clean data can be misleading and analysis complex and subjective, is nothing new. Bastiat phrased it as considering both what is seen, and what is unseen. Hayek in The Fatal Conceit said, "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." All this doesn't mean we can't get the answers, but it means it's not as simple as posting data and discussion here in this forum. Which is why I said what I did back in post #402.

 

[Jim Matthews]

The belief that economic data is not subject to political bias, is either naive or quasi-religious.

That's a logical fallacy, "No true Scotsman".

You got nothing, and you're out of your depth

I agree some data sets are clean enough, but even clean data is incomplete which can create a misleading picture.

This is a Gish Gallop - rather than support your original assertion, you attempt to wave away the objections. FYI - using anecdotes, claims without citations and appeals to authority aren't displays of expertise.

"#402 : Pursuing this would derail this thread and lead to a contentious political discussion. No thanks! "

(Which lead to this overtly political gem)

"#410 : ROFLMAO. Nice joke! If you torture the data, it will always confess. It's politics disguised as data."

This is a Science based forum. Make your case, support it against objections and test the conclusions.

For 1.5 million working adults, saving any amount of money (even with multiple roomates) is not possible. What might not be obvious to those no longer earning the minimum wage is the downward slide in purchasing power against rising rents.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2020/home.htm


.275 cumulative inflation since 2009.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Median rent for a single bedroom apartment is $997.
At $7.25 per hour, pre-tax, that's 137 hours on the clock.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-rent-by-state

Pesky Math