The wealth-building thread

[levimax]

The only solutions to the debt as its service (close to 15%) are revenue and inflation. Slashing entitlements would only put small dent in it and create a depression. We are already one of least taxed nations and the income gap between the wealthiest who pay the most taxes to those requiring the entitlements is very high. Flat tax with high compliance rates would help. Slashing the IRS employees was huge bungle. Our defense budget is 5X other modern nations.
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There is one other way to reduce the deficit which is to increase productivity and wages which will increase tax receipts without raising tax rates or costs and allows for higher wages and standard of living without inflation. If AI lives up to a fraction of its hype it could solve a lot of these deficit issues.

I agree that a 20% flat tax for everyone is a great way to go (the "King's fifth" has a lot of history going for it) but I don't see it happening due to politics. A consumption tax to get some of the money made by hookers and drug dealers and others from the underground economy into the tax system is also a good idea that may be politically possible.

 

[Timcognito]

There is one other way to reduce the deficit which is to increase productivity and wages which will increase tax receipts without raising tax rates

That's called revenue and inflation can do it too when wages and prices go up, the old debt in dollars is less of an issue. That is how the war in Viet Nam was paid for.

 

[JeffS7444]

Exuberant investors ignore turmoil at their own risk​

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/24/iran-war-tariffs-stock-market

 

[levimax]

Exuberant investors ignore turmoil at their own risk​

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/24/iran-war-tariffs-stock-market

Not sure the point of this article or other similar ones. Not any real actionable information besides trying to scare people. Bearish arguments always appear to be more sophisticated than bullish ones but over the long run being bearish has not been a good way to build wealth. I would say prudent optimism is a better way to think about the markets.

 

[blueone]

Exuberant investors ignore turmoil at their own risk​

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/24/iran-war-tariffs-stock-market

Humbug. All investing is at our own risk. If I let tariffs and Iran bother me I would have missed out on a 30% increase in my total accounts valuation since early April.

 

[OCA]

Not sure the point of this article or other similar ones. Not any real actionable information besides trying to scare people. Bearish arguments always appear to be more sophisticated than bullish ones but over the long run being bearish has not been a good way to build wealth. I would say prudent optimism is a better way to think about the markets.

Trend is your friend.

 

[Nih Noh]

Investing can be simple. Find out what asset had the largest returns over the last ten years and buy that.

HINT: it's not NVIDEA. It's not netflix, it's not even in the FAANG. Yet it still has a 2T marketcap lol

 

[JeffS7444]

Investing can be simple. Find out what asset had the largest returns over the last ten years and buy that.

 

[Marc v E]

Just a heads up from me: I heard from 2 people working in finance that they expect the stock market to crash. One who worked in finance on a global level. The other on national level in Europe. Do with it what you like. I just wanted to let you know. Take care.

 

[Tom C]

Just a heads up from me: I heard from 2 people working in finance that they expect the stock market to crash. One who worked in finance on a global level. The other on national level in Europe. Do with it what you like. I just wanted to let you know. Take care.

FUD. Do with it what you like I just wanted to let you know. Take care.

 

[sneakmasterG]

Just a heads up from me: I heard from 2 people working in finance that they expect the stock market to crash. One who worked in finance on a global level. The other on national level in Europe. Do with it what you like. I just wanted to let you know. Take care.

I can guarantee that the market will crash with 100% certainty.

I unfortunately cannot tell you when.

 

[Marc v E]

I can guarantee that the market will crash with 100% certainty.

I unfortunately cannot tell you when.

Same here. But if Powell is replaced I bet it is within 12 months, or even a couple of weeks.

 

[Timcognito]

A few days left on this one $380 of e-books (18) for $25 and help charity FYI

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[Noske]

Same here. But if Powell is replaced I bet it is within 12 months, or even a couple of weeks.

Just some technical things perhaps not widely appreciated and will make for fascinating dinner table talk.

Mr Powell is "just" the Chairman of the Fed Reserve Board. There are eleven other voting members.

His tenure as Chair ends in May 2026. He cannot be replaced before that on matters of policy differences, despite reports to the contrary.

He will remain on as a member of the Fed Board until Jan 31 2028.

That's all.

 

[bachatero]

Watch out!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1950975999493152905

 

[bachatero]

Something absolutely creepy

https://twitter.com/x/status/1950784303144861955

 

[Timcognito]

Jobs report and unsettled high tariffs are pointing towards recession in the US with jittery investors ready to pull the sell trigger. Guessing it will be a bumpy road with good or bad holiday sales being an indicator of where it land longer term.

 

[bachatero]

Ruh roh!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1963210368190403040

 

[levimax]

That same spread was inverted for many years until recently. These inversions "almost always lead to a recession" and people were wringing their hands hoping for a return of a "normal" yield curve. The recession never happened. Now that we have what they wanted they are wringing their hands again. Maybe they will be right this time but trying to trade off stuff like this has a poor track record.

 

[bachatero]

That same spread was inverted for many years until recently. These inversions "almost always lead to a recession" and people were wringing their hands hoping for a return of a "normal" yield curve. The recession never happened. Now that we have what they wanted they are wringing their hands again. Maybe they will be right this time but trying to trade off stuff like this has a poor track record.

This is interesting because the yield curve inversion tracks the spread between the 10yr and 2yr, while this different indicator measures the 30yr and 2yr. Previous yield curve inversions also didn't match up well with the actual recession/crash times, so it really is pretty useless.