What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[Laserjock]

That's what the wet markets are all about... not just as far as bats are concerned, of course. Actually the bats themselves aren't usually the problem... it's all the other species that can potentially become a springboard for a mutated strain to infect humans. Likely civets last time and pangolins this time - although neither has been proven conclusively, AFAIK.

Very interesting article... and frightening as well.

@Laserjock - you shouldn't be apologizing to anyone, it's that kind of soft-shoe approach that creates problems. It is not a false premise at all... it's a very well supported one. I guess I've missed all the accolades showering the CCP and it's transparency and respect for individuals (or dissenting collectives for that matter) but disagreement with tone doesn't invalidate all content. In fact, it's the very reason that the researchers in that article you linked were so surprised that the outbreak occurred where it did - as opposed to much farther south (where more natural human-bat interactions occur). Conspiracy theorists might grasp upon her first thought which was that it escaped their lab.

For whatever reason it seems to be inherently problematic when predators eat other predators in many cases - and that is certainly not isolated to any country or culture (nor even species). It even largely applies to fish as well. In general it makes sense that when you eat an animal that eats other animals... it can enable "leaping" of problems - i.e. you are subjected to more distant contaminants, viruses, bacteria, etc. of the secondary prey.

As omnivores, although we can debate the ethics of meat-eating... our digestive system doesn't. However, in general, it's healthier and more natural to eat herbivores... which most "prey" animals are by nature. Of course, the other healthy advantage to not eating other predating carnivores: they help keep "shared" prey animals healthier by culling the herds. When we eat them... everything gets sicker as a result. Naturally, that includes the occasional pandemic virus mutation as well.

And while we're at it... BSE was caused by a similar issue (but even more of a crime against nature) and is a prime example of why you get even more problems when you force cannibalism on an herbivore population in the name of "progress".

Thanks, good points and what I was trying to say.

 

[Putter]

Nothing suggests that "they" played fast and loose with the projections

Instead, the epidemiological models used can vary widely based on what assumptions are made regarding both contact likelihood and transmissibility given a contact. The former is subject to public compliance with orders. The latter is still not well known. Thus, you will get a wide range of model outputs.

By way of analogy, you can think of this as predicting the course of a hurricane - a number of models are used with different facts considered, and different factor weightings, hence a wide range of the colored straws on the map.

I understand that models use assumptions, but those assumptions are not disclosed. The problem is that the administration did not give all the data behind the projection. Instead they took the parts they liked; a lower number of deaths, not mentioning that the projection used assumes social distancing through at least June 1 not April 30, and finally not mentioning that for it to work that ALL states mandate social distancing.

All these things may actually come to pass. If people get scared enough, the social distancing will work with or without state mandates. There is also the problem of that most people will still not have been exposed and therefore immune. Maybe the virus will burn itself out or we'll have effective treatments.

 

[blueone]

NO ONE is doing that to me while I'm conscious. End of story.

Today I had the chance to talk with someone who administers COVID-19 tests in the US. I expressed my concern about sticking what looks like a six-inch long Q-Tip in my nose, especially about the possibility of starting a nose bleed, since I'm on an anti-coagulant. He "displayed the instruments" for me, and they are actually a very thin, flexible plastic rod with a small wad of what appears to be cotton on the end. He emphasized that it is very flexible and demonstrated by bending one. I asked him how many nose bleeds he's caused and he said none, and he would know if he did, because the presence of blood would contaminate the sample. He said some people early on in his testing complained about pain, but now that he's done well over 100 tests he said he figured out a technique that draws very few complaints.

Nonetheless, I still think I'd have to be unconscious.

 

[Laserjock]

https://techstartups.com/2020/04/01...ous-disease-specialist-dr-stephen-smith-says/

Hmmm,
Hoping it’s true

 

[gikigill]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

A good resource for tracking and projections. Its in Amir,s backyard.

 

[Doodski]

Today I had the chance to talk with someone who administers COVID-19 tests in the US. I expressed my concern about sticking what looks like a sic-inch long Q-Tip in my nose, especially about the possibility of starting a nose bleed, since I'm on an anti-coagulant. He "displayed the instruments" for me, and they are actually a very thin, flexible plastic rod with a small wad of what appears to be cotton on the end. He emphasized that it is very flexible and demonstrated by bending one. I asked him how many nose bleeds he's caused and he said none, and he would know if he did, because the presence of blood would contaminate the sample. He said some people early on in his testing complained about pain, but now that he's done well over 100 tests he said he figured out a technique that draws very few complaints.

Nonetheless, I still think I'd have to be unconscious.

Yeah sticking a long Q-tip in my nose and penetrating my brain would be a issue.

 

[Thomas savage]

I was sat outside a well respected ' foodie' pub a few years ago , ford fiesta pulls up, couple of Springer spaniels jump out the back seat, boot opens , loads of dead pheasants. Just piled up in the back.

Just random ones from anywhere. We also eat random rabbits , pigeon ( rats of the sky ) and a bunch of other random beasts. .. horse lasagna anyone....

Oh and yes BSE , it's indeed sophisticated to make Molly the cow and her mates eat their grandparents to save money on feed costs.

There's minimum xenophobia and general cultural prejudiced here but on my Facebook there's loads of people trying to make out the Chinese are disgusting for eating certain things and use that as a spring board to blame them for all this. We all have our cultural norms and what we see as viable food options can be very different.

Maybe there's something in avoiding eating other carnivores, that's a interesting idea.

 

[Laserjock]

I don’t care what you eat but being as these viruses seem to originate from bats and jump to another host before humans, I’d say it makes sense not to have any around each other.

 

[Doodski]

Oh and yes BSE , it's indeed sophisticated to make Molly the cow and her mates eat their grandparents to save money on feed costs.

There's minimum xenophobia and general cultural prejudiced here but on my Facebook there's loads of people trying to make out the Chinese are disgusting for eating certain things and use that as a spring board to blame them for all this. We all have our cultural norms and what we see as viable food options can be very different.

I toured a very large meat packing plant processing 1200 meat cattle / day in Alberta Canada and they showed the spine bits being removed and then the meat being rinsed thoroughly with lactic acid(milk stuff) to wash off any spinal stuff or brains on the meat and to wash off any BSE stuff.
I worked in a Chinese restaurant for 2.5 years while I studied in college. I ate majorly fancy lunch and dinner meals everyday there for free and the food was incredible!!! All of it traditional and not the red candy Chinese food some people eat. The food was piping hot and sterile when served and no weird beasts or weird bits of animals. They where very conventional and laughed at all the strange things some Chinese eat. To put them all in the same boat per eating weirdO bits and pieces is not reality.

 

[Thomas savage]

I toured a very large meat packing plant processing 1200 meat cattle / day in Alberta Canada and they showed the spine bits being removed and then the meat being rinsed thoroughly with lactic acid(milk stuff) to wash off any spinal stuff or brains on the meat and to wash off any BSE stuff.
I worked in a Chinese restaurant for 2.5 years while I studied in college. I ate majorly fancy lunch and dinner meals everyday there for free and the food was incredible!!! All of it traditional and not the red candy Chinese food some people eat. The food was piping hot and sterile when served and no weird beasts or weird bits of animals. They where very conventional and laughed at all the strange things some Chinese eat. To put them all in the same boat per eating weirdO bits and pieces is not reality.

I didn't put anybody in the ' same boat' , there's accepted norms within cultures. Within nationalities there's also cultural nuance and differences .

Up north they put gravy on their chips ... I actually quite like it but you won't find it a option at chippys in most southern counties. Many think it's very wrong lol and let's not start on cream tea ' jam and cream , cream and jam' ... There's also economic disparity between North and South and you will find quite a lot of southerners expressing their disdain for those that they say are of inferior culture up north.

There's snobbery and prejudice, it's everywhere but I'm glad it's at a minimum here.

 

[Doodski]

I didn't put anybody in the ' same boat' , there's accepted norms within cultures. Within nationalities there's also cultural nuance and differences .

Up north they put gravy on their chips ... I actually quite like it but you won't find it a option at chippys in most southern counties. Many think it's very wrong lol and let's not start on cream tea ' jam and cream , cream and jam' ... There's also economic disparity between North and South and you will find quite a lot of southerners expressing their disdain for those that they say are of inferior culture up north.

There's snobbery and prejudice, it's everywhere but I'm glad it's at a minimum here.

Here in Canada we still have English vs Scots rubbish. I was raised English with a English surname but my real surname is Scotch. So I put up with prejudice from both sides of the fence dependent on the time in my life and what surname I used. Now I just laugh them all off and shrug.

 

[Putter]

https://techstartups.com/2020/04/01...ous-disease-specialist-dr-stephen-smith-says/

Hmmm,
Hoping it’s true

It sounds good, but I always feel a little skeptical when doctors talk to news shows instead of other doctors. The statistics calculated by his son of 0.000 something % sounds odd. What are his son's qualifications to make that calculation.

For that matter let put out a different hypothesis.
50 patients come into the clinic with corona virus symptoms, which usually means that they've had it awhile and it got bad enough for them to seek treatment. 20 get worse and have to be intubated. The other 30 having reached their peak infection, start to mount an immune response and get well.

This means that 20% developed severe symptoms that required intubation. 80% recovered with or without hydroxychloroquine treatment. That doesn't sound so different than the current results. That doesn't seem much different than the normal course of the illness.

In Cuomo latest press conference, 12,226 people hospitalized of which 3022 in ICU which usually means intubated. So that means about 25% needed intubation. My numbers are admittedly rough in that maybe more of the hospitalized might require intubation, but they don't seem significantly different than Dr. Smith's or what is currently be found. The only real proof are large studies with treated and untreated patients.

P.S. I'll be quite happy to be proven wrong.

 

[Laserjock]

It sounds good, but I always feel a little skeptical when doctors talk to news shows instead of other doctors. The statistics calculated by his son of 0.000 something % sounds odd. What are his son's qualifications to make that calculation.

For that matter let put out a different hypothesis.
50 patients come into the clinic with corona virus symptoms, which usually means that they've had it awhile and it got bad enough for them to seek treatment. 20 get worse and have to be intubated. The other 30 having reached their peak infection, start to mount an immune response and get well.

This means that 20% developed severe symptoms that required intubation. 80% recovered with or without hydroxychloroquine treatment. That doesn't sound so different than the current results. That doesn't seem much different than the normal course of the illness.

In Cuomo latest press conference, 12,226 people hospitalized of which 3022 in ICU which usually means intubated. So that means about 25% needed intubation. My numbers are admittedly rough in that maybe more of the hospitalized might require intubation, but they don't seem significantly different than Dr. Smith's or what is currently be found. The only real proof are large studies with treated and untreated patients.

P.S. I'll be quite happy to be proven wrong.

would you take it if you tested positive?
I would

 

[TLEDDY]

Mask update: NEJM, Apr 2, 2020

We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.

 

[andymok]

I toured a very large meat packing plant processing 1200 meat cattle / day in Alberta Canada and they showed the spine bits being removed and then the meat being rinsed thoroughly with lactic acid(milk stuff) to wash off any spinal stuff or brains on the meat and to wash off any BSE stuff.
I worked in a Chinese restaurant for 2.5 years while I studied in college. I ate majorly fancy lunch and dinner meals everyday there for free and the food was incredible!!! All of it traditional and not the red candy Chinese food some people eat. The food was piping hot and sterile when served and no weird beasts or weird bits of animals. They where very conventional and laughed at all the strange things some Chinese eat. To put them all in the same boat per eating weirdO bits and pieces is not reality.

We do snakes, we do entrails and scraps from chicken, duck, goose, pig and beef, we have Century egg. Mate you need to try the Hong Kong dishes.

 

[Doodski]

We do snakes, we do entrails and scraps from chicken, duck, goose, pig and beef, we have Century egg. Mate you need to try the Hong Kong dishes.

The chef I worked for was from mainland China.

 

[Thomas savage]

Interesting article on age demographic of those going into US hospitals.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/01/coronavirus-young-americans-covid-19

We do snakes, we do entrails and scraps from chicken, duck, goose, pig and beef, we have Century egg. Mate you need to try the Hong Kong dishes.

Century egg, that separates the men from the boys lol

 

[rajapruk]

https://techstartups.com/2020/04/01...ous-disease-specialist-dr-stephen-smith-says/

Hmmm,
Hoping it’s true

They tried it in Sweden, but are stopping using it in my hometown Göteborg due to severe side effects like heart stopping. Actually some deaths might be due to this medicin used by so many doctors, a Göteborg-doctor beleive. He regrets using it.
Swedish article:
https://www.gp.se/nyheter/göteborg/...ng-med-malariamedicin-mot-covid-19-1.26236140

 

[digicidal]

I don’t care what you eat but being as these viruses seem to originate from bats and jump to another host before humans, I’d say it makes sense not to have any around each other.

That may be a self-resolving issue eventually (and unfortunately, because if you think bats are bad... consider the disease vectors for insects before you write them off). The little guys eat a crapload (a precise scientific term) of them - though most aren't significant disease vectors necessarily:

Free-tail bats consume enormous amounts of moths and other insects. Some roosts are known to contain millions of bats. In those colonies it is estimated that 250 tons of insects can be consumed every night.

At the same time, I think this is the primary reason they shouldn't be considered for food (beside the fact that they're adorable IMO) - they mostly eat the things that make us sick in one way or another... essentially taking the bullet for us. When we deliberately reduce their populations or worse capture for pets or food... we upset the natural balance. Just like decimating shark and wolf populations because "they eat too much of our food" - we will eventually reap the consequences of eliminating natural controls on other populations which can (and often is) a much bigger threat to our survival than the "problems" they cause.

I guess if you can eat cats, dogs, foxes, bears, etc... a bat isn't a stretch at all - they even look similar. Pigs are very similar genetically to humans... but I still find them delicious. Go figure - hypocrisy at work. Theoretically, just like pigs/boars, there could be a means of making almost anything safe(ish) for us to eat... but even common food animals require careful certification and testing in order to not be harmful. No matter where you live... buying something from an "amateur butcher" can be life threatening. Of course, on the other hand, most animal husbandry practices are absolutely barbaric IMO... so again, hypocrisy.

I try to eat as little of anything with a face as possible... but I also readily admit many of them are incredibly tasty (and plants somewhat less tasty).

 

[digicidal]

Century egg, that separates the men from the boys lol

It will definitely put hair on something...