What do the next 2 years hold in store for speakers+DAC+DSP?

[jeffme]

As a techie / audophile n00b considering something in the D&D, Kii, Mesanovic, LS60, Beolab 90 (jk) category, it seems like a horrible time to invest $x,000 given what might be coming in the near future. For example, there are plenty of third-parties who have all of the required skills and production facilities in house, but have yet to enter the market. This group clearly includes existing vendors who probably won't innovate for fear of undercutting their primary revenue streams. But... how long can B&W or Sonus Faber sell their high-end all-in-ones without better processing? Or JBL, Bose, Polk, etc., not launch some sort of copycat? DSP doesn't have to be super-spatial to be awesome & clearly more than a handful of companies have figured out how to do this on their own without help from Dirac. I'm not expecting a full range, large room solution to be available for $2,000, but I'm also don't think it's outrageous to imagine a D&D 8C competitor at 1/3 the price in 2025. There's already a Mesanovic and Kii (soon) nipping at 8C performance at 1/2 the price, not to mention the LS60. Also hard to imagine all those Camilla Rpis owners out there aren't already experimenting with some sort of DIY all-in-one.

Please don't mistake my question about how far prices might drop in the next 2 years as any slight on the amazing engineering all of these companies have accomplished. I've worked with startups shipping integrated hardware and software products, so I am truly in awe. And grateful!

That said, I'm wondering what soothsaying perspective the grizzled industry vets here at ASR might provide.

 

[kemmler3D]

As a techie / audophile n00b considering something in the D&D, Kii, Mesanovic, LS60, Beolab 90 (jk) category, it seems like a horrible time to invest $x,000 given what might be coming in the near future. For example, there are plenty of third-parties who have all of the required skills and production facilities in house, but have yet to enter the market. This group clearly includes existing vendors who probably won't innovate for fear of undercutting their primary revenue streams. But... how long can B&W or Sonus Faber sell their high-end all-in-ones without better processing? Or JBL, Bose, Polk, etc., not launch some sort of copycat? DSP doesn't have to be super-spatial to be awesome & clearly more than a handful of companies have figured out how to do this on their own without help from Dirac. I'm not expecting a full range, large room solution to be available for $2,000, but I'm also don't think it's outrageous to imagine a D&D 8C competitor at 1/3 the price in 2025. There's already a Mesanovic and Kii (soon) nipping at 8C performance at 1/2 the price, not to mention the LS60. Also hard to imagine all those Camilla Rpis owners out there aren't already experimenting with some sort of DIY all-in-one.

Please don't mistake my question about how far prices might drop in the next 2 years as any slight on the amazing engineering all of these companies have accomplished. I've worked with startups shipping integrated hardware and software products, so I am truly in awe. And grateful!

That said, I'm wondering what soothsaying perspective the grizzled industry vets here at ASR might provide.

I'm not sure the industry will or won't start offering major DSP-driven improvements in sound / price over the next few years.

In order to reap the benefits of DSP you generally need extra amplifier power to overcome other compromises in the design. Even though "power is cheap" today, clean power capable of producing 100dB at 20hz regardless of driver diameter will not suddenly become free. Likewise, drivers with that level of performance need a certain amount of copper, magnet, and precision manufacturing, and that costs money regardless of the DSP you put in the box. Similarly, the box itself can't be made of cardboard, and that also costs what it costs, regardless of what DSP you put in there.

"Good design doesn't cost more" is true, but only after you put the design into mass production. Before that, you need a good acoustic engineer, and they DO cost more.

Coming from the speaker world, I can tell you that acoustic engineers capable of producing a Kii or D&C 8C killer are not just sitting around waiting for someone to call them. Even with unlimited CPU power built into the cabinet, not everyone can just sit down and crap out a world-class speaker. If they could, the prototypes for $150 actives we planned (and scrapped) would have come out a lot better, let me tell you.

B&W may have some people like this on staff, Bose probably does, but those brands have long since distanced themselves from objectively good performance. They have a house sound and their customers are looking for that, not "the perfect cardioid speaker".

JBL is one to watch on this front. So is Revel, by virtue of the Harman family. So I would not be surprised if you see some interesting LS60 or 8C-like designs coming from that end in the next few years.

So bottom line - in order to produce 8C / LS60 / Kii-like sound, you need several high quality drivers, you need sturdy boxes, and you need powerful amps. There is no reason to think the prices of those things will drop quickly in the near future.

What we might see are lower-SPL or slightly lower-performance speakers with cardioid designs using cheaper components. So maybe Kali or Adam puts out a cardioid monitor with 8C DNA in the $2000 range sometime soon? I would not hold my breath for these designs breaking new ground in the $1000 range though, the parts cost to make it work is simply too high at the minimum. Think about it, you can pay >$1000 for a traditional monitor with one woofer... what happens when you have 2-4 woofers on the same box?

TL;DR:
DSP is basically free
Drivers and amps are not free, and will not get cheap fast
Harman, Kali, Adam, maybe iLoud are ones to watch for a lower-tier cardioid monitor IMO
Don't hold your breath for sub-$2K high-quality cardioid designs

 

[suttondesign]

my experience buying and selling integrated active speaker things at the high end and low end is that reliable ones will remain few because expensive to do right. but the trend toward consumer-grade things that simplify using a streaming music service through an integrated device will accelerate, but the devices will break or become obsolete sooner than one would wish.

the upshot is that audiophile-grade integrated devices cannot be much cheaper without sacrificing frequency range, reliability, or both. furthermore, my experience as a dealer is that having US reps and repair facilities is a must, so that is another reason good things will remain expensive.

finally, full-range integrated systems are heavy. the euro ones like genelec and dutch are expensive just to ship, to say nothing of the fair European wages to make them. KEF seems to have made compromises on longevity to get its complex things made less expensively outside of Maidstone, Kent. I personally hesitate to get involved with models like the ls60 for that reason, though presumably there is decent US repair support.

Finally, the real-dollar price for dutch, genelec, etc. is lower than I spent in the 1980’s for good stuff.

My 2 cents.

 

[jeffme]

TL;DR:
DSP is basically free
Drivers and amps are not free, and will not get cheap fast
Harman, Kali, Adam, maybe iLoud are ones to watch for a lower-tier cardioid monitor IMO
Don't hold your breath for sub-$2K high-quality cardioid designs

Great reply - TY! I've clearly forgotten that there's ample evidence of a large number of competitors already happily (?) existing in the high-performance passive speaker space with apparently little downward pricing pressure - or, a price floor being enforced by quality material costs, as you point out.

Coming from the speaker world, I can tell you that acoustic engineers capable of producing a Kii or D&C 8C killer are not just sitting around waiting for someone to call them. ...

B&W may have some people like this on staff, Bose probably does, but those brands have long since distanced themselves from objectively good performance. They have a house sound and their customers are looking for that, not "the perfect cardioid speaker".

JBL is one to watch on this front. So is Revel, by virtue of the Harman family. So I would not be surprised if you see some interesting LS60 or 8C-like designs coming from that end in the next few years.

I was imagining (hoping/wishing?) a small number of B&W or Bose acoustics team members getting inspired to strike out on their own. I'm wondering if Arendal might be intriuged by the segment.

What we might see are lower-SPL or slightly lower-performance speakers with cardioid designs using cheaper components. So maybe Kali or Adam puts out a cardioid monitor with 8C DNA in the $2000 range sometime soon? I would not hold my breath for these designs breaking new ground in the $1000 range though, the parts cost to make it work is simply too high at the minimum. Think about it, you can pay >$1000 for a traditional monitor with one woofer... what happens when you have 2-4 woofers on the same box?

This was the other angle I was imagining. Trimming performance around the fringes while still outperforming much of what's out there. How far could you get with 2-3 yo sota compoents or whatever is 1 gen older than sota? 1 cut below Hypex amps? Kali, Adam, SVS (?) all seem like they could make credible runs at a $3-4K system, which for them might burnish some of their brand?

On that point, I also wonder if Sonos (I know, I know...) would consider a super-Sonos setup for $1.5-$2K per speaker?

Don't hold your breath for sub-$2K high-quality cardioid designs

Ha! I'd settle for sub-$5K, but I'm still not holding my breath. Thanks again for the quality response!

 

[jeffme]

my experience buying and selling integrated active speaker things at the high end and low end is that reliable ones will remain few because expensive to do right. but the trend toward consumer-grade things that simplify using a streaming music service through an integrated device will accelerate, but the devices will break or become obsolete sooner than one would wish.

the upshot is that audiophile-grade integrated devices cannot be much cheaper without sacrificing frequency range, reliability, or both. furthermore, my experience as a dealer is that having US reps and repair facilities is a must, so that is another reason good things will remain expensive.

finally, full-range integrated systems are heavy. the euro ones like genelec and dutch are expensive just to ship, to say nothing of the fair European wages to make them. KEF seems to have made compromises on longevity to get its complex things made less expensively outside of Maidstone, Kent. I personally hesitate to get involved with models like the ls60 for that reason, though presumably there is decent US repair support.

Finally, the real-dollar price for dutch, genelec, etc. is lower than I spent in the 1980’s for good stuff.

My 2 cents.

Thank you, as well, for this great answer. Having shipped stuff from Europe in the past, I should have been more attuned to the pains of getting things through custom, shipping costs, etc. And, the points about reliability are a critical selling point at these price points. The failure rate of all of these low-cost class D amps with great specs becomes more real when you have effectively 2 or more more in the same box...

 

[Keith_W]

I'm not sure the industry will or won't start offering major DSP-driven improvements in sound / price over the next few years.

Great reply! I suspect the Chinese will move more into the loudspeaker space more over the next few years. They have been electronics for a while now, and IAG Group (which makes Mission, Wharfedale, Quad) is headquartered in China. At the moment they are making mass market speakers with a few high end brands, but have yet (to my knowledge) moved into speakers that we would consider to be objectively good, like KEF's, Kii's, Dutch&Dutch, and so on. I hope they make speakers that are priced like Toppings and SMSL but perform like Genelecs. If anybody can do it, they can.

 

[sam_adams]

 

[Ellebob]

I think it comes down to market desire. Is it possible, I would say definitely. Will it sell in enough quantity to keep pricing down, I doubt it. I just don't see enough desire among the general public to make a high quality full range speaker cost effective.

 

[kemmler3D]

Great reply! I suspect the Chinese will move more into the loudspeaker space more over the next few years. They have been electronics for a while now, and IAG Group (which makes Mission, Wharfedale, Quad) is headquartered in China. At the moment they are making mass market speakers with a few high end brands, but have yet (to my knowledge) moved into speakers that we would consider to be objectively good, like KEF's, Kii's, Dutch&Dutch, and so on. I hope they make speakers that are priced like Toppings and SMSL but perform like Genelecs. If anybody can do it, they can.

Lots of drivers and speakers are already produced in China. There is no reason they couldn't go after the high end to some extent. There are enough wealthy consumers just in their domestic market to make it worth putting together a D&D (I guess it would be C&C there) type offering.

In their favor, they have access to cheap amps and DSP components.

Working against them, they have no particular advantage in getting raw materials or shipping bulky things back and forth, which are hallmarks of DSP-heavy speakers.

I think they are on even footing in terms of engineering, and probably have an advantage in terms of getting quality drivers manufactured, since they simply have a lot of that infrastructure there. Not every factory is set up for high-end driver manufacturing, but a good handful are.

They won't have as much success marketing outside of China. High end purchase is very brand driven, more than performance-drive, outside of ASR. We see this all over the place, poorly measuring speakers like Wilson commanding massive premiums for what ASR considers "bad" reasons. Meanwhile Ascend acoustics, Mesonovic, Sigberg etc. don't get the attention they deserve.

A Chinese speaker would need to claim the title of "best in the world" in some aspects to break into the market in the west. That's a tall order for a new company.

So I am not sure how it will shake out. Topping could probably sell cardioid DSP speakers to Chinese consumers. Would westerners buy them? ASR is relatively pro-Topping and I think a lot of members would have doubts about reliability. If I was a PM at Topping could I convince the CEO that it was worth a shot? Could I convince them to put a 5-year warranty on it? Would I bet my career on it? Who knows... It's probably a $1M+ investment for them to design and tool such a speaker... meanwhile they can keep putting out DACs and amps with low risk.

Thinking beyond all-Chinese firms doing this, I would love to see what Linkplay could do with one of the high-end contract manufacturers based there. Take the ruthless competence of the WiiM brand, find a whiz-kid acoustic engineer, and use the factory that builds B&W or ELAC stuff and what do you get...?

 

[jeffme]

We can always hope.

ASR is relatively pro-Topping and I think a lot of members would have doubts about reliability. If I was a PM at Topping could I convince the CEO that it was worth a shot? Could I convince them to put a 5-year warranty on it? Would I bet my career on it? Who knows... It's probably a $1M+ investment for them to design and tool such a speaker... meanwhile they can keep putting out DACs and amps with low risk.

This was my point above & the reliability concern only gets worse when you put multiple amps in one box.

Thinking beyond all-Chinese firms doing this, I would love to see what Linkplay could do with one of the high-end contract manufacturers based there. Take the ruthless competence of the WiiM brand, find a whiz-kid acoustic engineer, and use the factory that builds B&W or ELAC stuff and what do you get...?

We can always hope... my (cheap) fingers are crossed!

 

[kemmler3D]

Today I was also thinking about Sonos and JBL and why they haven't made a world-beating DSP cardioid bookshelf or floorstander. JBL has the chops, just look at how much DSP they use on the M2, let alone their Atmos soundbars and whatnot. Sonos certainly has the DSP chops too.

Ultimately I think the high-end-audiophile markets are simply not their bread and butter. Brand has a lot to do with it. When I sold speakers on Amazon, a majority of the traffic was not up for grabs. Most people in the market for speakers or headphones started by searching for "Bose" or "Sonos" or "sony", or another name brand. And people have pre-formed notions of whether those speakers are good or not.


Putting drivers on the back or sides of a speaker is also a bit counterintuitive. So a mainstream brand like JBL or Sonos might not bother.

I think that leaves Revel, maybe Focal (not price competitors), new entrants, or possibly Kali. If I were to bet on where the next great cardioid active will come from, I'd put them near the top of the list.

 

[Timcognito]

Near total flat infinite baffle 2pi DML with no baffle step and super wide horizontal dispersion perhaps doubling as a video screen embodiment.

 

[Purité Audio]

Manufacturers with traditional ranges don’t tend to introduce designs which make their current designs irrelevant.
Keith

 

[Timcognito]

Manufacturers with traditional ranges don’t tend to introduce designs which make their current designs irrelevant.
Keith

Yes that is true but innovators disrupt. Just look what Class D is doing to conventional amplification. Things are going towards video integration and flat panels. As square footage increases in price, floor space is at a premium. Deep bass though, has few answers to new design in form factor.

 

[Philbo King]

As a techie / audophile n00b considering something in the D&D, Kii, Mesanovic, LS60, Beolab 90 (jk) category, it seems like a horrible time to invest $x,000 given what might be coming in the near future. For example, there are plenty of third-parties who have all of the required skills and production facilities in house, but have yet to enter the market. This group clearly includes existing vendors who probably won't innovate for fear of undercutting their primary revenue streams. But... how long can B&W or Sonus Faber sell their high-end all-in-ones without better processing? Or JBL, Bose, Polk, etc., not launch some sort of copycat? DSP doesn't have to be super-spatial to be awesome & clearly more than a handful of companies have figured out how to do this on their own without help from Dirac. I'm not expecting a full range, large room solution to be available for $2,000, but I'm also don't think it's outrageous to imagine a D&D 8C competitor at 1/3 the price in 2025. There's already a Mesanovic and Kii (soon) nipping at 8C performance at 1/2 the price, not to mention the LS60. Also hard to imagine all those Camilla Rpis owners out there aren't already experimenting with some sort of DIY all-in-one.

Please don't mistake my question about how far prices might drop in the next 2 years as any slight on the amazing engineering all of these companies have accomplished. I've worked with startups shipping integrated hardware and software products, so I am truly in awe. And grateful!

That said, I'm wondering what soothsaying perspective the grizzled industry vets here at ASR might provide.

There's always the promise of improvements to come. You can wait for perfection, or settle on 'pretty damned great'. But the ultimate is like tomorrow; it never comes.

For the future:
I think there is potential in beam-forming tech for multielement speaker arrays, though perhaps not so much for living room setups (except maybe multisub setups).

 

[jeffme]

There's always the promise of improvements to come. You can wait for perfection, or settle on 'pretty damned great'. But the ultimate is like tomorrow; it never comes.

Oh, I hear you... that's why I'm asked the original q... trying to get a feel of where to land. Feels to me like LS60s are the price/performance sweet spot in this category. Amazing full-range sound. 1/2 the price of 8C, missing the amazing placement correction, but going to drop to by at most, maybe $2K in the next 2 years? Maybe?

 

[fudun]

I was just thinking something like this, and my uneducated guess it that things could start moving quite fast.

With good design, decent drivers and plentiful cheap amplification you can achieve a lot as long as you have the skill to DSP it. But the real magic happens when you adapt the DSP to the room and the listening position(s). Brilliant designs like the LS60s still doesn't do this. It's just a matter of software. In that sense, manufacturers like Sonos are miles ahead. Its not close to Dirac, but it works, and I think they and other manufacturers could do a lot more if they felt they needed that to stay ahead of the market segment they aim for.

And that is of course the main stream segment. Not audio scientists or semi-audiophiles like myself. So we need a few more disruptors to bring the audio science to the masses before the big old guys gets in the game. It's very much like electric cars vs the traditional car manufacturers. They just recently realized they are about to have a Kodak moment as the market is flooded with cheap Chinese cars. Now they just have to realize they have become software companies.

 

[srrxr71]

Software really matters. The Genelec ecosystem would be useless without GLM being so good and easy to use.

Also cloudcal is constantly being improved. That’s where the real magic is.

Then I tried Trinnov. They already reduced the price in the Nova by going with an ARM based system. This level of R&D like 15 years of research and product development will not be replicated and it certainly won’t be for cheaper.

Also if you are a slightly OCD audiophile type you won’t really compromise on having “gold standard” equipment.

Studios will not switch in Chinese product to save a few bucks.

I remember listening to some $120k mark levinson martin Logan system in the early 2000s. It did nothing for me.

Now for a small fraction of that cost in 2023 dollars - that system would be something like $300k - you can have something that is about as close to perfect as possible. Something so incredible your brain can hardly handle what your ears are sending to it.

Singers singing in front of you. Instruments being played in your living room. Bass impact that shakes you even at normal SPL. Better than VR for me.

Remember Dutch and Dutch needed 8 years to even produce their first product and then it took 3-5 years to get enough traction that people could rely on their cloud EQ service. The price went up from $8k to $13k just based on their reputation and status going up.

This is not an easy game to innovate in and create a product people can trust.

However you can do your own thing with class D amps and MiniDSP and keep your costs down. But you cannot get to the point these companies have. Bunch of super smart people working for 8 years.

 

[srrxr71]

I was just thinking something like this, and my uneducated guess it that things could start moving quite fast.

With good design, decent drivers and plentiful cheap amplification you can achieve a lot as long as you have the skill to DSP it. But the real magic happens when you adapt the DSP to the room and the listening position(s). Brilliant designs like the LS60s still doesn't do this. It's just a matter of software. In that sense, manufacturers like Sonos are miles ahead. Its not close to Dirac, but it works, and I think they and other manufacturers could do a lot more if they felt they needed that to stay ahead of the market segment they aim for.

And that is of course the main stream segment. Not audio scientists or semi-audiophiles like myself. So we need a few more disruptors to bring the audio science to the masses before the big old guys gets in the game. It's very much like electric cars vs the traditional car manufacturers. They just recently realized they are about to have a Kodak moment as the market is flooded with cheap Chinese cars. Now they just have to realize they have become software companies.

Why do I have a feeling some of those old companies will just become marketing companies and trade on status prestige and “old school luxury”.

They are not trading on performance anymore and haven’t been for years.

It sort of reminds me of the Seiko vs Rolex story. Some people just want a Rolex.

 

[jayapple]

Lots of drivers and speakers are already produced in China. There is no reason they couldn't go after the high end to some extent. There are enough wealthy consumers just in their domestic market to make it worth putting together a D&D (I guess it would be C&C there) type offering.

In their favor, they have access to cheap amps and DSP components.

Working against them, they have no particular advantage in getting raw materials or shipping bulky things back and forth, which are hallmarks of DSP-heavy speakers.

I think they are on even footing in terms of engineering, and probably have an advantage in terms of getting quality drivers manufactured, since they simply have a lot of that infrastructure there. Not every factory is set up for high-end driver manufacturing, but a good handful are.

They won't have as much success marketing outside of China. High end purchase is very brand driven, more than performance-drive, outside of ASR. We see this all over the place, poorly measuring speakers like Wilson commanding massive premiums for what ASR considers "bad" reasons. Meanwhile Ascend acoustics, Mesonovic, Sigberg etc. don't get the attention they deserve.

A Chinese speaker would need to claim the title of "best in the world" in some aspects to break into the market in the west. That's a tall order for a new company.

So I am not sure how it will shake out. Topping could probably sell cardioid DSP speakers to Chinese consumers. Would westerners buy them? ASR is relatively pro-Topping and I think a lot of members would have doubts about reliability. If I was a PM at Topping could I convince the CEO that it was worth a shot? Could I convince them to put a 5-year warranty on it? Would I bet my career on it? Who knows... It's probably a $1M+ investment for them to design and tool such a speaker... meanwhile they can keep putting out DACs and amps with low risk.

Thinking beyond all-Chinese firms doing this, I would love to see what Linkplay could do with one of the high-end contract manufacturers based there. Take the ruthless competence of the WiiM brand, find a whiz-kid acoustic engineer, and use the factory that builds B&W or ELAC stuff and what do you get...?

Honestly, that's not likely to happen. In terms of cheap decoders or amplifiers, perhaps only ASR users know about these brands and buy them. More consumers only know those few old brands. SONY sold a lot of MP3 players in the past, but they had no success in the stereo area. China has everything it takes to make premium speakers, but no one wants to do it, it's a backward and entrenched industry. Look at electric vehicles or other advanced high-end industries, this is the future.