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The Slow Death and Rebirth of Intel

Ron Texas

Ron Texas

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Three years ago Apple switched from Intel x86 processors to their own ARM based M series chips. Last month Microsoft and its PC partners released the Copilot+ PC based on a Qualcomm ARM based chip. The ARM technology has much lower power usage for doing a given amount of work. Intel is transitioning its business away from proprietary X86 CPU's to a foundry manufacturing semiconductors based on other companies designs similar to the business model of TSMC. This is also driven by a US national security imperative to manufacture vital semiconductors domestically and billions in subsidies to encourage this goal.
 
Intel had their chance with ARM. My Compaq iPaq had an Intel StrongARM CPU in it in 2001. Intel developed the StrongARM into XScale and then sold it to Marvell, presumably with the ARM license.

I'd like to think that the UK could also increase our chip making capacity, but I don't think ASML will sell us any more machines after the football :)
 
Ron Texas said:
Three years ago Apple switched from Intel x86 processors to their own ARM based M series chips. Last month Microsoft and its PC partners released the Copilot+ PC based on a Qualcomm ARM based chip. The ARM technology has much lower power usage for doing a given amount of work. Intel is transitioning its business away from proprietary X86 CPU's to a foundry manufacturing semiconductors based on other companies designs similar to the business model of TSMC. This is also driven by a US national security imperative to manufacture vital semiconductors domestically and billions in subsidies to encourage this goal.
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I've assembled my own PCs using Intel CPUs for the last 20+ years. Will this affect future builds? Am I to expect motherboards and CPUs designed by someone else and built by Intel?
 
kelesh said:
I've assembled my own PCs using Intel CPUs for the last 20+ years. Will this affect future builds? Am I to expect motherboards and CPUs designed by someone else and built by Intel?
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I don't think Intel are interesting in manufacturing boards for anyone else, this is about silicon. Intel are setting themselves up to manufacture whatever design someone will pay them to manufacture. Whether this ends up in a 'PC' is another matter. I suspect Intel is interested in the more custom (and lucrative) end of the market (AI, Defence, etc.)
 
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Berwhale said:
I don't think Intel are interesting in manufacturing boards for anyone else, this is about silicon. Intel are setting themselves up to manufacture whatever design someone will pay them to manufacture. Whether this ends up in a 'PC' is another matter. I suspect Intel is interested in the more custom (and lucrative) end of the market (AI, Defence, etc.)
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So in the end, we enthusiast PC builders will be affected, as they will concentrate on the said AI and defence production, while normal boards and CPUs will be of secondary importance.
 
When the i9s were first coming out I thought they were cool but now i9's are just guineapig products. 12th gen was a major step-up from 11th gen but it had some loses like Bifurcation and Latency. 12900K's are super unwanted when you get a 13700K that's faster and runs cooler (At the time). Now the 13th and 14th gen i9s are having I/O problems.

I still remember the "Top M.2 Slot" drama with the 10th gen and 11th gen chips. If somebody weren't tech savvy enough, it would be easy to mix up those parts.

ARM is future now, no doubt its just the matter of adaption like 64-bit was. I've experienced Intel 64-bit Chromebooks and Qualcomm? ARM Chromebooks, the ARM ones were cheaper, thinner, quieter, took less power, all around better. Sure you couldn't run Windows on them for how lacking the specs but they had the Google Play store which was good enough for most people using those types of laptops. Maybe RISC-V will replace ARM chips because of its free-to-use deal.

kelesh said:
So in the end, we enthusiast PC builders will be affected, as they will concentrate on the said AI and defence production, while normal boards and CPUs will be of secondary importance.
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AI was fun at first but now its just cancer, literally. Every product has AI now and they usually don't use it that well. AI can create amazing things while at the same time creating recycled garbage. There is so much AI content floating around on the internet that other AI is using that said content as data to generate with. AI is gonna be like Ford's Flathead V8, they can only push it so far. I just think its a big bubble that's been over inflated and will eventually pop.
 
Ron Texas said:
Three years ago Apple switched from Intel x86 processors to their own ARM based M series chips. Last month Microsoft and its PC partners released the Copilot+ PC based on a Qualcomm ARM based chip. The ARM technology has much lower power usage for doing a given amount of work. Intel is transitioning its business away from proprietary X86 CPU's to a foundry manufacturing semiconductors based on other companies designs similar to the business model of TSMC. This is also driven by a US national security imperative to manufacture vital semiconductors domestically and billions in subsidies to encourage this goal.
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Intel is not transitioning away from x86-based CPUs.
 
kelesh said:
So in the end, we enthusiast PC builders will be affected, as they will concentrate on the said AI and defence production, while normal boards and CPUs will be of secondary importance.
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I'd say the future of build your own PC is unknown right now.
 
kelesh said:
So in the end, we enthusiast PC builders will be affected, as they will concentrate on the said AI and defence production, while normal boards and CPUs will be of secondary importance.
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I've been building my own PCs for 30+ years, I don't expect to be able to build them myself in 10 years time, I just don't think it will be 'a thing' anymore.
 
Berwhale said:
I've been building my own PCs for 30+ years, I don't expect to be able to build them myself in 10 years time, I just don't think it will be 'a thing' anymore.
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That would suck B I G time! I am a do-it myself kinda guy and I have always bought gaming components and built over clocker PCs even if the latest Intel i5K PC that I built really does not have that much OC headroom.
 
Berwhale said:
But the world is and Intel will eventually follow...
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I see the demand for x86 drying up. Copilot+ is the handwriting on the wall.

Note that Intel's stock price is where it was in 2015.
 
I use a PC for Gaming and an Apple device for most else. The software & ecosystem compatibility with Apple makes the difference for me and transcends the chip. Intel missed the boat with ARM and I doubt they will get a second chance….
 
Berwhale said:
But the world is and Intel will eventually follow...
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Let's be clear about what the world is doing. Some big cloud computing companies, like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, are designing their own datacenter CPUs based on Arm chip design IP. At least one datacenter CPU merchant chip vendor, Ampere (Oracle is a big investor in them), is using Arm CPU designs too, but they have announced they are switching to what Apple and Qualcomm are doing in their client and mobile CPUs, which is designing a proprietary CPU that executes a version of the Arm instruction set. This is what Apple does with the A-series and M-series CPUs, and what Qualcomm is doing with the Snapdragons Microsoft is using in their Surface Pros. (Qualcomm acquired a CPU company called Nuvia, which does the proprietary design to execute an Arm instruction set).

So, measured by sales volumes, the winner is the instruction set, not Arm IP per se. And I very much doubt Intel will ever follow, especially not as long as the current CEO is in that position. He's the biggest x86 promoter ever.

It is also unclear how open source will affect Arm's future. Namely RISC-V. So far more talk than action, but the we're still in the first inning of that game.
 
blueone said:
Let's be clear about what the world is doing. Some big cloud computing companies, like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, are designing their own datacenter CPUs based on Arm chip design IP. At least one datacenter CPU merchant chip vendor, Ampere (Oracle is a big investor in them), is using Arm CPU designs too, but they have announced they are switching to what Apple and Qualcomm are doing in their client and mobile CPUs, which is designing a proprietary CPU that executes a version of the Arm instruction set. This is what Apple does with the A-series and M-series CPUs, and what Qualcomm is doing with the Snapdragons Microsoft is using in their Surface Pros. (Qualcomm acquired a CPU company called Nuvia, which does the proprietary design to execute an Arm instruction set).

So, measured by sales volumes, the winner is the instruction set, not Arm IP per se. And I very much doubt Intel will ever follow, especially not as long as the current CEO is in that position. He's the biggest x86 promoter ever.

It is also unclear how open source will affect Arm's future. Namely RISC-V. So far more talk than action, but the we're still in the first inning of that game.
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The ARM instruction set is ARM IP; Apple, Qualcomm and others pay ARM for an Architectural license in order to build their own CPU designs using the ARM architecture.

But I was talking about is the fact that most of the world has an ARM CPU in their pocket and do most of their computing with it. Most of the world have already transitioned away from x86 (or were never there in the first place).
 
Berwhale said:
I've been building my own PCs for 30+ years, I don't expect to be able to build them myself in 10 years time, I just don't think it will be 'a thing' anymore.
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Shame, because nothing beats a custom build. The level of control and parts selection is just far greater if you DIY.
 
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