Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[mansr]

I never understood that position, which is surprisingly ubiquitous. Don't you prefer to just be right, irrespective of what anyone thinks or says? I don't understand why you would base your evaluation of what is true or not based on popularity.

Ironically, by trying to be an outsider, by choosing opinions based on their lack of popularity, it seems to me that you're as defined by the mob as you would if you chose to agree with everyone. It's a bit as if the mob used reverse psychology on you and you'd fall for it everytime.

 

[scott wurcer]

Yup, one of my first lessons in life and I remember the exact moment and place. I was 8yr. old and my best friend with 2 older beatnik brothers told me, "My brothers and their friends are non-conformists because the all dress in black".

 

[Darvis]

This could be debated for 9 1/2 weeks . There are good arguments on all sides.
E.g. some think that a "mob intelligence" exists and the stock markets could be a very good example. OTOH, many successful stock investors just go against "the mob".

When I see a big crowd going one direction I usually go the other way. At the very least it's much quieter.

I would say that going against the mob in your example is the result of a rational decision (a statistical analysis or something similar), so it not at all going against what you presume to be the truth just to not be seen agreeing with everyone.

 

[Thomas savage]

The covid19 strategy is ' there's not a lot we can do about this , let's try and mitigate the worse of it while not going bankrupt ' .

For there to be a strategy there has to be some options, it's not like anyone is turning down a vaccine in favour of spontaneous herd immunity.

 

[A Surfer]

Herd immunity is the only way forward. And the morbidity rate is not as high as was suggested above. I am not saying that any deaths are inconsequential, but if we like it or not people are going to die. Yes death is tragic and for those who have lost loved ones it is devastating I am sure, and I am not at all suggesting such things should be taken lightly.

I have also not heard of evidence that this particular virus has mutated, but I might have just missed that information. Like many here have been, I do follow as much of the science around the pandemic and I recall watching an interview with a specialist in such things who noted that viruses often mutate to be less dangerous so a mutation alone does not mean the risk has increased. As for vaccines, clearly they will be part of the strategy and work in concert with organic herd immunity, but vaccines have highly variable efficacy rates so don't put all your eggs in that basket.

Frankly despite being in my early 50s and having asthma that requires daily medication, I would still almost prefer to get covid and allow my immune system to respond to it. Naturally developed immunity is known to be more robust over time.

 

[Vasr]

The covid19 strategy is ' there's not a lot we can do about this , let's try and mitigate the worse of it while not going bankrupt ' .

For their the be a strategy there has to be some options, it's not like anyone is turning down a vaccine in favour of spontaneous herd immunity.

With respect to vaccines vs herd immunity, you are correct.

However, there are two starkly opposing options both of which have negative consequences and one is likely to be more successful than the other in retrospect. History will be the judge.

Policies to promote herd immunity by loosening restrictions that promote spread vs Policies to mitigate by prophylactic measures to reduce spread that don't allow for herd immunity even if possible.

Therein lies the dividing line in the face of uncertainty (not to mention vested interests).

 

[Vasr]

Herd immunity is the only way forward.

...

Frankly despite being in my early 50s and having asthma that requires daily medication, I would still almost prefer to get covid and allow my immune system to respond to it. Naturally developed immunity is known to be more robust over time.

Great. Please participate in the experiment by mingling around as much as you can and take one for the team, I will sit at home to see how it works.

But seriously, it is one thing to voluntarily accept the risk of herd immunity and volunteer, it is quite a different thing when the experiment for it necessarily requires unwilling participants that don't have a choice nor is the outcome for them certain.

Only the Generals like the Human Wave attack strategy, never the foot soldiers.

 

[tmtomh]

Herd immunity is the only way forward. And the morbidity rate is not as high as was suggested above. I am not saying that any deaths are inconsequential, but if we like it or not people are going to die. Yes death is tragic and for those who have lost loved ones it is devastating I am sure, and I am not at all suggesting such things should be taken lightly.

I have also not heard of evidence that this particular virus has mutated, but I might have just missed that information. Like many here have been, I do follow as much of the science around the pandemic and I recall watching an interview with a specialist in such things who noted that viruses often mutate to be less dangerous so a mutation alone does not mean the risk has increased. As for vaccines, clearly they will be part of the strategy and work in concert with organic herd immunity, but vaccines have highly variable efficacy rates so don't put all your eggs in that basket.

Frankly despite being in my early 50s and having asthma that requires daily medication, I would still almost prefer to get covid and allow my immune system to respond to it. Naturally developed immunity is known to be more robust over time.

I'm not sure what mortality rate you're referring to, but the estimated mortality rate of Covid is 0.5 to 0.8% - 5 to 8x that of the flu. Add to that the fact a lot more of the population is not immune (because the flu vaccine is partially effective and widely administered), and you have a mortality population that at least an order of magnitude greater than that of the flu. In the U.S., the worst flu season in recent memory produced about 1/50th the number of confirmed deaths as Covid has so far.

As for herd immunity, it is not only not the only way forward, it's increasingly looking like it's not the way forward.

There's a reason no one - not even Sweden - has rushed headlong into getting as many people as possible infected as quickly as possible to reach herd-immunity levels. That reason is that the virus is far more deadly than the flu. Some people will die no matter what - but without efforts to flatten the curve, more people will get gravely ill faster, meaning that there will be additional, "unnecessary" deaths from people who could have been saved dying due to lack of medical capacity to treat them. That's the entire point of flattening the curve. (Of course, social distancing and mask-wearing can also prevent some people who would die no matter what from getting infected at all, thereby saving additional lives that way.)

No society - including Sweden - has come close to herd-immunity levels, and while you are correct that surviving Covid does confer immunity, it is not currently known how long that immunity lasts or how strong it is, especially for those with mild or asymptomatic infections.

And your claim that "naturally developed immunity is known to be more robust over time" is untrue. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't.

 

[tmtomh]

it's not like anyone is turning down a vaccine in favour of spontaneous herd immunity.

Very true - although once there is a vaccine, the anti-vaxxers will really come out of the woodwork. Some of them will make the anti-mask people look almost reasonable by comparison.

 

[Canuck57]

Apparently there is a cure for COVID 19 involving DNA from aliens!

 

[Wes]

only in the US - headed south?

 

[Canuck57]

nope the border is closed thank God!

 

[mansr]

while you are correct that surviving Covid does confer immunity, it is not currently known how long that immunity lasts or how strong it is,

6 months after it took off, has there been a single confirmed case of a person being infected twice?

 

[Canuck57]

6 months after it took off, has there been a single confirmed case of a person being infected twice?

possibly I have heard of a few cases in the news

 

[mansr]

possibly I have heard of a few cases in the news

There have been a few cases where a person has tested positive, negative, and then positive again. I'm not aware of any where it has been determined with any certainty that this wasn't due to a false test result. Given the number of people involved and the accuracy of the tests (not quite 100%), a few such instances should be expected.

 

[tmtomh]

6 months after it took off, has there been a single confirmed case of a person being infected twice?

Thankfully no, there has not - all instances of people testing positive, then negative, then positive again have been attributed to either testing inaccuracy, inactive virus still in the body triggering a positive, or the minority of "long haul" cases where folks apparently take a very long time to fully clear the virus from their systems.

Believe me, no one is more hopeful than I am that post-recovery immunity is consistently strong and long-lasting, since I got a symptomatic (thankfully did not require hospitalization) case back in March.

I am cautiously optimistic that T-cell immunity is just that. But to the best of my knowledge, we still don't know - it just hasn't been long enough yet.

The studies with monkeys are encouraging - zero percent reinfection rate after as long as 35 days (I think); as is the apparent existence of T-cell immunity as much as 17 years later in some folks who recovered from SARS1. But I don't think we'll really know until next year at the earliest.

 

[Robin L]

This is an excellent time to be paranoid.

 

[North_Sky]

The most expert professional scientists on virus, vaccines, pandemics, ... what are they saying about herd immunity, anti-bodies, vaccines, vitamin D, hydroxychloroquine, zinc tablets, cannabis, and all that good health related jazz? ...Masks included, social distancing and hand sanitizers.

Can a Coronavirus vaccine split the Americas...North America?

¤ https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497

* Today is very hot here on the Island; best to be on the ocean, by the beach under the shade of a tree, having a cold one relaxing and cooling off. I am not kidding, it's 35° Celsius. B.C. Day long weekend is coming up...starting tomorrow and till Tuesday morning. Stay safe, avoid traffic...cars, ferries, walking, crowds, shopping, ...any people gathering...churches, libraries, theaters, museums, book stores, record stores, salvation army stores, grocery stores, liquor stores, restaurants, bars, pubs, taverns, strip joints ... all that busy moving jazz.

Personally I'd stay away of herd immunity; that's me. ...Mumbai slums, Rio de Janeiro favelas, ...all that stuff.

 

[North_Sky]

This is an excellent time to be paranoid.

A pandemic is the perfect reason to be unreasonable.

 

[Robin L]

A pandemic is the perfect reason to be unreasonable.

I don't know about "unreasonable", but hyperaware and responsive to threats as if the world is out to get me---in current circumstances, a reasonable position.