• WANTED: Happy members who like to discuss audio and other topics related to our interest. Desire to learn and share knowledge of science required. There are many reviews of audio hardware and expert members to help answer your questions. Click here to have your audio equipment measured for free!

Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

Status
Not open for further replies.

North_Sky

Major Contributor
Joined
Oct 31, 2019
Messages
2,741
Likes
1,553
Location
Kha Nada
Shopping online (groceries) is the safest.
This is part of the new normal.
 

Wes

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Dec 5, 2019
Messages
3,843
Likes
3,788
I don't necessarily agree with any of those articles. And the 'new' models, while interesting, seem to be really rocket-science complex and susceptible to the smallest butterfly-effect mistake.

Just trying to figure out what will be the next 'official' strategy so I can better prepare mine. Latest news seem to point to a 2nd wave and we'll probably need to deal with it without a vaccine. I did a bit of travelling and have many contacts around the EU. There are many funny trends and reactions everywhere but I wouldn't use 'terrified' either.

There are signs of the 'immunity' trend gaining momentum ~everywhere around EU but nothing clear enough to say that it'll be the next strategy. Anyone who can provide more info/links? (from ~any EU language/country)
Or if you think there will be a different wave2 strategy, add some info on that.

@Thomas savage
Sorry, I did not check the other threads much. Hopefully this one does not go any 'dark places'.

why do you think they are susceptible to minor parameter fluctuations?

did you do a stability analysis or sensitivity analysis on these models?
 

Vasr

Major Contributor
Joined
Jun 27, 2020
Messages
1,409
Likes
1,922
Just trying to figure out what will be the next 'official' strategy so I can better prepare mine. Latest news seem to point to a 2nd wave and we'll probably need to deal with it without a vaccine. I did a bit of travelling and have many contacts around the EU. There are many funny trends and reactions everywhere but I wouldn't use 'terrified' either.

Until there is a vaccine (which is impossible to predict a timeline for), Whack-a-Mole will be the "official" global strategy.
 

scott wurcer

Major Contributor
Audio Luminary
Technical Expert
Joined
Apr 24, 2019
Messages
1,501
Likes
2,821
LOL, mind you I don't think this has reached the problematic level yet. Let's see where it goes ...

Good luck, mask wearing has been common in Asia for decades. I have pictures of volunteering for Habitat (2006) and all the food service personnel always wore them.
 

Don Hills

Addicted to Fun and Learning
Joined
Mar 1, 2016
Messages
708
Likes
464
Location
Wellington, New Zealand
Simple measures can keep the spread down to a low level. In this country, the spread of flu-like disease is tracked year on year. Recent results:

Flutracker.png


Timeline:
4/3 First case
26/3 Level 4 (Total country lockdown)
27/4 Level 3
13/5 Level 2
8/6 Level 1 (No internal restrictions, but strict border controls)

The initial surge after restrictions were lifted has been countered by simple measures:
- Practice basic hygeine (sanitiser, hand washing, cover coughs / sneezes).
- If you have respiratory symptoms, get a COVID-19 test.
- STAY HOME / ISOLATE until you've recovered, don't soldier on at work and spread it around.

It works for the 'flu, it'll work for COVID-19.
 

Vasr

Major Contributor
Joined
Jun 27, 2020
Messages
1,409
Likes
1,922
Simple measures can keep the spread down to a low level. In this country, the spread of flu-like disease is tracked year on year. Recent results:

View attachment 75768

Timeline:
4/3 First case
26/3 Level 4 (Total country lockdown)
27/4 Level 3
13/5 Level 2
8/6 Level 1 (No internal restrictions, but strict border controls)

The initial surge after restrictions were lifted has been countered by simple measures:
- Practice basic hygeine (sanitiser, hand washing, cover coughs / sneezes).
- If you have respiratory symptoms, get a COVID-19 test.
- STAY HOME / ISOLATE until you've recovered, don't soldier on at work and spread it around.

It works for the 'flu, it'll work for COVID-19.

The last statement is problematic and can be mis-applied outside the context. But it does seem to be the story of places that have managed to contain the pandemic successfully. But it can flare up anytime with just a few unaware super-spreaders because of the nature of covid-19. So, one has to be cautiously optimistic.

That graph seems to be a tracking of symptomatic cases not to be conflated with "spread" (of infection) as a whole (including asymptomatic cases). Those anti-flu measures will certainly help and necessary but may not be sufficient depending on the state of the pandemic.

The problem with covid-19 compared to common flu/cold seems to be its much higher virulence in asymptomatic people so the precautions when you suspect you have something and personal hygiene aren't sufficient to control the spread IF there is a non-trivial percentage of asymptomatic people within the population.

The flu management pre-cautions above may be sufficient when the number of cases have sufficiently gone down that the R is very low. This may have happened in New Zealand from the earlier response to the pandemic. But when R is high due to a higher proportion of asymptomatic people, you would need to adopt some universal prophylactic measures to contain it. This is where some states in US seems to be having problems - a bad combination of opening restrictions too soon (when the number of infected people is still high) and reluctance of people to practice prophylactic measures (to reduce spead from asymptomatic people).

It is like fighting forest fires. If it is a wall of raging flames, the methods needed to contain a surge are much more than a smaller brush fire flaring up.
 

Ron Texas

Master Contributor
Joined
Jun 10, 2018
Messages
6,074
Likes
8,908
All I want is to be alive and not lose anyone I love by the time this is over, whenever that is. The sooner the better.
 

Don Hills

Addicted to Fun and Learning
Joined
Mar 1, 2016
Messages
708
Likes
464
Location
Wellington, New Zealand
...
It is like fighting forest fires. If it is a wall of raging flames, the methods needed to contain a surge are much more than a smaller brush fire flaring up.

Agreed. My point was to illustrate that common-sense hygiene and isolation practices are good habits to get into before the inevitable breakout, and will hopefully reduce the rate of transmission to a more manageable level when it occurs. We currently have a problem here with people who have respiratory symptoms not taking up the offer of tests. Their reasoning appears to be that it is a waste of time because we have no known community transmission. But we need to test to know that.
 

maxxevv

Major Contributor
Joined
Apr 12, 2018
Messages
1,872
Likes
1,964
IMO and also a few of the others have pointed out, herd immunity only works if sufficient percentage of the population has been infected and developed immunity to it. AND equally importantly, its a stable, non-mutating virus, which it isn't !

At current rates, average mortality is like 3~4% worldwide. To achieve say 70% infection, and say in a country of 50million, would mean 35million infected, with a death toll of 1.4 million ! Imagine for every 100 people you know, 2~3 would have to die just to reach that milestone.

AND that the virus is NOT stable. Meaning that kind of required immunity figures may never be reached from just that 70% rates alone, but a persisted 70% for a period of maybe years. Needing people to be infected multiple times and in such high concentrations to achieve.

It would mean that 3~4% mortality perpetuated over multiple cycles before the herd immunity eventually shutters the virus out. Maybe it takes 2~3 cycles for that to happen, maybe it takes 5 or even more. Nobody can say for sure .

At 3~4 % mortality of (70% of population) infected every cycle, repeated 2~3 times, even 5 times. Imagine a 50m population country losing 1.4m up to 5 times .... that's 7m !

A country may lose as much as 10% of its population before herd immunity can effectively eradicate the virus.

Not a sensible idea by any means if you treasure the people around you.
 

RayDunzl

Grand Contributor
Central Scrutinizer
Joined
Mar 9, 2016
Messages
13,198
Likes
16,981
Location
Riverview FL
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ms-to-be-developing-in-mumbai-s-poorest-areas

Sero survey finds 57% of Mumbai slum-dwellers have antibodies

“Mumbai’s slums may have reached herd immunity,” said Jayaprakash Muliyil, chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of India’s National Institute of Epidemiology, and the retired head of one of its premier medical colleges. “If people in Mumbai want a safe place to avoid infection, they should probably go there.”
 

North_Sky

Major Contributor
Joined
Oct 31, 2019
Messages
2,741
Likes
1,553
Location
Kha Nada
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ms-to-be-developing-in-mumbai-s-poorest-areas

Sero survey finds 57% of Mumbai slum-dwellers have antibodies

“Mumbai’s slums may have reached herd immunity,” said Jayaprakash Muliyil, chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of India’s National Institute of Epidemiology, and the retired head of one of its premier medical colleges. “If people in Mumbai want a safe place to avoid infection, they should probably go there.”

I've read that article too this morning.
“If people in Mumbai want a safe place to avoid infection, they should probably go there.”

"Safe"? I'll wait a year or so ... and see how they're doing by then.
 
OP
L

lashto

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Mar 8, 2019
Messages
1,045
Likes
535
why do you think they are susceptible to minor parameter fluctuations?

did you do a stability analysis or sensitivity analysis on these models?
no idea.
I just said "seem to be" because that's usually the case with any complex stuff. Particularly when it's so new and hardly proven in practice (at least not for this application).

A few mentioned the ~70% infection rate required for 'immunity' as a big issue. It surely is way too much but those 'new trend' people seem to be convinced that it will be much lower. One assumption for example is that a large % of people were always immune because (somewhat) similar corona viruses were out there for a long time already. Haven't seen any clear data on that, just people throwing percents some as high as 50%. One can only hope that they are right.

P.S.
I am also quite worried (and skeptical) about this whole herd-strategy stuff, that's why I asked for more data/info. And why I would like to know asap if it goes 'official'.
 
Last edited:

onofno

Active Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
265
Likes
450
Location
Toulouse, France
Your entire comment is nonsense.

about malaria I'm not wrong... so saying my entire comment is nonsense....

anyway, I prefer to be wrong on my own more than right with others...
 

Darvis

Active Member
Joined
May 20, 2020
Messages
142
Likes
164
Location
Belgium
anyway, I prefer to be wrong on my own more than right with others...
I never understood that position, which is surprisingly ubiquitous. Don't you prefer to just be right, irrespective of what anyone thinks or says? I don't understand why you would base your evaluation of what is true or not based on popularity.

Ironically, by trying to be an outsider, by choosing opinions based on their lack of popularity, it seems to me that you're as defined by the mob as you would if you chose to agree with everyone. It's a bit as if the mob used reverse psychology on you and you'd fall for it everytime.
 

tmtomh

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Aug 14, 2018
Messages
2,634
Likes
7,483
about malaria I'm not wrong... so saying my entire comment is nonsense....

anyway, I prefer to be wrong on my own more than right with others...

You are incorrect in how you're using malaria as a comparison, as has already been clearly explained to you.

As for preferring to be wrong on your own, congratulations, you've achieved your preference.
 
OP
L

lashto

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Mar 8, 2019
Messages
1,045
Likes
535
I never understood that position, which is surprisingly ubiquitous. Don't you prefer to just be right, irrespective of what anyone thinks or says? I don't understand why you would base your evaluation of what is true or not based on popularity.

Ironically, by trying to be an outsider, by choosing opinions based on their lack of popularity, it seems to me that you're as defined by the mob as you would if you chose to agree with everyone. It's a bit as if the mob used reverse psychology on you and you'd fall for it everytime.
This could be debated for 9 1/2 weeks :). There are good arguments on all sides.
E.g. some think that a "mob intelligence" exists and the stock markets could be a very good example. OTOH, many successful stock investors just go against "the mob".

When I see a big crowd going one direction I usually go the other way. At the very least it's much quieter.
 

tmtomh

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Aug 14, 2018
Messages
2,634
Likes
7,483
This could be debated for 9 1/2 weeks :). There are good arguments on all sides.
E.g. some think that a "mob intelligence" exists and the stock markets could be a very good example. OTOH, many successful stock investors just go against "the mob".

When I see a big crowd going one direction I usually go the other way. At the very least it's much quieter.

There aren't actually good arguments on all sides. The point of scientific knowledge is repeatability of results - a scientific view that stands alone is, in and of itself, meaningless and without value.

Now, the creativity, ingenuity, insight, or unusual intelligence that can sometimes drive someone to have a singular realization or make a singular claim - that can indeed be really valuable and should be cultivated and appreciated. But that realization or claim is of use in the scientific realm only when it is then subjected to sound experimentation and confirmed to be valid.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom