Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[onofno]

Thinking that a mask will protect you from viruses is the same as thinking that a swimsuit will keep you dry...
There are much more than 500 000 000 viruses floating around in your living-room, do you wear a mask ?
Selling masks is just another business...
When in France we had no masks the radios told us that it was not necessary, now we have so many masks in supermarkets, pharmacies, and in many others places that we must wear a mask everywhere but outdoor.

I've been living during many years in Africa (Tchad/Togo/Ivory Coast) - all my schooling - when malaria killed lots of people. Vaccination helped saving lots of lives BUT could not stop malaria... then India told us that people infected by malaria should be isolated... so more people have been saved but malaria is still there.
What is the best product against malaria : chloroquine. This is what I took for months...

 

[Chromatischism]

Thinking that a mask will protect you from viruses is the same as thinking that a swimsuit will keep you dry...
There are much more 500 000 000 viruses floating around in your living-room, do you wear a mask ?
Selling masks is just another business...
When in France we had no masks the radios told us that it was not necessary, now we have so many masks in supermarkets, pharmacies, and in many others places that we must wear a mask everywhere but outdoor.

Masks and face coverings are not to keep you safe from the virus directly entering. They are source control. In that way, it stops virus particles as they leave us and ride on our droplets.

 

[LeftCoastTim]

I don't want another covid19 thread , 2 already caused endless grief.

Anything politically divisive gets this thread closed and removed.

Zero tolerance.

I give it about 3 pages worth of comments before politics come in.

Edit: haha 2 pages.

 

[A Surfer]

Thinking that a mask will protect you from viruses is the same as thinking that a swimsuit will keep you dry...
There are more 500 000 000 viruses floating around in your living-room, do you wear a mask ?
Selling masks is just another business...
When in France we had no masks the radios told us that it was not necessary, now we have so many masks in supermarkets, pharmacies, and in many others places that we must wear a mask everywhere but outdoor.

Same where I live, and while I am not a fan, given that there seems to be some credible science/rationale for wearing masks in certain situations, at least as part of a suite of responses it seems reasonable. Saying that, I do not think it should be relied upon or considered as a long term strategy, simply as a way to help people feel more secure and venture out again. I am shocked by just how many people I encounter who are genuinely fearful. I am wearing a mask not out of choice, but neither do I consider it a problematic infringement on my rights for a time. If they were to be maintained I would have to see very robust science that irrefutably demonstrates their efficacy, and significant efficacy, not just measurable. Like with audio something may have a measurable effect but still be practically insignificant. Not sure where the science of mask wearing lands just yet so I am willing to take a leap of faith and go with it for now anyway.

 

[A Surfer]

I give it about 3 pages worth of comments before politics come in.

Edit: haha 2 pages.

LOL, mind you I don't think this has reached the problematic level yet. Let's see where it goes ...

 

[Chromatischism]

Same where I live, and while I am not a fan, given that there seems to be some credible science/rationale for wearing masks in certain situations, at least as part of a suite of responses it seems reasonable. Saying that, I do not think it should be relied upon or considered as a long term strategy, simply as a way to help people feel more secure and venture out again. I am shocked by just how many people I encounter who are genuinely fearful. I am wearing a mask not out of choice, but neither do I consider it a problematic infringement on my rights for a time. If they were to be maintained I would have to see very robust science that irrefutably demonstrates their efficacy, and significant efficacy, not just measurable. Like with audio something may have a measurable effect but still be practically insignificant. Not sure where the science of mask wearing lands just yet so I am willing to take a leap of faith and go with it for now anyway.

They do more than just make people feel safe.

 

[A Surfer]

Nice. And to be clear my comment about making people feel more confident was meant as an acceptable minimal reason. I tend to be cautious in what science and sources I feel confident in. I will be getting more familiar with the subject as being in graduate school still I have access to many journals so as the science moves forward the data points will build up. Cheers.

 

[Soniclife]

Thinking that a mask will protect you from viruses is the same as thinking that a swimsuit will keep you dry...

You don't wear a swimsuit to keep you dry, you do it to protect others from being exposed to your junk.

 

[Soniclife]

What do people make of the interferon beta trial? It looks like the first real big win for treatment, if it checks out, the trial was very small though, and not published last time I knew.

 

[onofno]

You don't wear a swimsuit to keep you dry, you do it to protect others from being exposed to your junk.

I don't care about swimsuit I go to a nudist beach... there is a nudist beach every 20km in France and they are free and full with people from all over Europe during summer.
The 2 largest nudist beaches of Europe are in France one is located on the Atlantic Ocean near Bordeaux, the other one "Cap d'Agde" is located on the Mediterranean Sea.

 

[lashto]

COVID-19 dashboards:
https://covid19-projections.com/
https://www.ncov2019.live/

interesting projections. And their current performance is better than expected

 

[onofno]

When you breathe out your lungs release carbon dioxide into the mask which retains 50% of the carbon dioxide and when you inhale you send this carbon dioxide into your lungs... what do you think ?
When I go to a Supermarket I try to stay in no more than 30 minutes.

 

[zelig]

Herd immunity becomes effective at around 70% infected with this virus. That's not a strategy - that's sit back and do nothing. Truth be told, without a vaccine that's all we can do. And vaccines for these types of viruses are notoriously ineffective. Of the last 3 years of flu vaccine, the best year was still under 50% effective and the worst year was under 20%. Covid is here to stay, just like the cold and the flu, and this is just the start of a relentless battle with it. We have yet to fully acknowledge this reality and until we do there can be no strategy.

Please prove me wrong.

 

[North_Sky]

When this crisis is over I'll check Sweden to see if their strategy worked @ the end ...

Stay safe everyone, do what you have to do ...

 

[Chromatischism]

When you breathe out your lungs release carbon dioxide into the mask which retains 50% of the carbon dioxide and when you inhale you send this carbon dioxide into your lungs... what do you think ?
When I go to a Supermarket I try to stay in no more than 30 minutes.

There is no meaningful carbon dioxide buildup when wearing a cloth face covering or face mask.

 

[Koeitje]

When you breathe out your lungs release carbon dioxide into the mask which retains 50% of the carbon dioxide and when you inhale you send this carbon dioxide into your lungs... what do you think ?
When I go to a Supermarket I try to stay in no more than 30 minutes.

This is simply false.

 

[mansr]

When I go to a Supermarket I try to stay in no more than 30 minutes.

How do you spend 30 minutes in a supermarket? When I go shopping, it takes me closer to 3 minutes.

 

[tmtomh]

Thinking that a mask will protect you from viruses is the same as thinking that a swimsuit will keep you dry...
There are much more than 500 000 000 viruses floating around in your living-room, do you wear a mask ?
Selling masks is just another business...
When in France we had no masks the radios told us that it was not necessary, now we have so many masks in supermarkets, pharmacies, and in many others places that we must wear a mask everywhere but outdoor.

I've been living during many years in Africa (Tchad/Togo/Ivory Coast) - all my schooling - when malaria killed lots of people. Vaccination helped saving lots of lives BUT could not stop malaria... then India told us that people infected by malaria should be isolated... so more people have been saved but malaria is still there.
What is the best product against malaria : chloroquine. This is what I took for months...

Your entire comment is nonsense.

Of course we don't wear a mask in normal times... because in normal times our living rooms are filled with viruses that cause the common cold or that cause nothing at all. (Or the flu virus, whose contagion level is less than Covid and whose mortality rate is a fraction of Covid's, and for which we have a partially effective vaccine, greatly reducing the vulnerable population to begin with.)

Of course we don't wear masks to stop Malaria - Malaria is mainly transmitted through mosquito bites, not through human respiratory droplets. Anti-malarial drugs are effective against Malaria because... they're anti-malarial drugs that actually work against that pathogen. Currently there is no cure for Covid, and there is no clearly established therapeutic drug or course.

(Remdesivir has limited effectiveness at reducing duration and severity in some cases; and non-invasive oxygen methods combined with physical body turning to reduce pressure on the lungs is gradually replacing invasive intubation in all but the most severe cases. Both of these strategies appear to be reducing the death rate, but they are not medications or therapies that can prevent or reliably treat the disease.)

Masks were not initially recommended by public health authorities for Covid because (a) it was not initially known how prevalent respiratory transmission was; and (b) mask supplies were initially very limited, particularly outside SE Asia, and it was thought that the best public health strategy was to reserve them for frontline medical workers.

And selling masks has become a business because most of the world's nations are capitalist economies.

As to the OP's question, Sweden's herd-immunity approach was initially lauded when their case loads didn't exceed those of other hard-hit nations. But since then their mortality rate has become alarmingly high, and studies of their herd immunity strategy have estimated something like a 15% (give or take) infection rate, which is about 1/4 to 1/5 of herd immunity levels.

So no, herd immunity is not becoming the dominant approach, because there's no proof it's possible - by the time enough people got infected, millions more would die, and in any event as noted above we still don't even know if post-infection immunity lasts long enough to enable enough people to be immune all at the same time.

 

[LTig]

Same where I live, and while I am not a fan, given that there seems to be some credible science/rationale for wearing masks in certain situations, at least as part of a suite of responses it seems reasonable. Saying that, I do not think it should be relied upon or considered as a long term strategy, simply as a way to help people feel more secure and venture out again. I am shocked by just how many people I encounter who are genuinely fearful. I am wearing a mask not out of choice, but neither do I consider it a problematic infringement on my rights for a time. If they were to be maintained I would have to see very robust science that irrefutably demonstrates their efficacy, and significant efficacy, not just measurable. Like with audio something may have a measurable effect but still be practically insignificant. Not sure where the science of mask wearing lands just yet so I am willing to take a leap of faith and go with it for now anyway.

I am more shocked about those who behave as if there was no virus in the first place, like those drunken tourists on Mallorca or people during private parties. We just had a relative on visit here who lives on the French coast and she told us that every night young people gather in the streets outside the pubs in close contact without wearing masks and talk very loud.

In Germany the lockdown was not a total one (other than in France) but it still was very effective. Wearing a mask in shops and other closed spaces seems to be a good way to keep the number of infections low. Wearing a mask outside makes sense when you are within a large crowd for longer than a few minutes, but IMV is overkill when walking uncrowded streets. Although I really hate to wear a mask (my glasses get foggy within seconds) we should keep wearing masks where it makes sense until we have a means to fight Covid. A lockdown is not required if everybody behaves reasonable.

But when a few people break those reasonable rules they seem to start a new wave and force governments to introduce stricter rules as in France where you now have to always wear a mask outside your home (if I understand it correctly).

 

[LTig]

How do you spend 30 minutes in a supermarket? When I go shopping, it takes me closer to 3 minutes.

It depends how much you need to buy and how long you have to wait at the butcher and at the cashiers. Therefore I go to the supermarket later in the evening when it's not crowded.
Edit: just back from the supermarket, took about 15 minutes.