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Coronavirus (COVID-19): Global business, economics, and stock markets updates

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RayDunzl

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RayDunzl

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1587939368934.png


So, futures trading for June and July crude oil delivery has been suspended.

Existing positions can be closed before expiration, but I would suppose that is likely to lead to an imbalance among speculators and those actually buying/selling crude oil, and extreme prices at the end of the contract, again.
 

Alice of Old Vincennes

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View attachment 60614

So, futures trading for June and July crude oil delivery has been suspended.

Existing positions can be closed before expiration, but I would suppose that is likely to lead to an imbalance among speculators and those actually buying/selling crude oil, and extreme prices at the end of the contract, again.
No place to store oil. Will not find buyer for delivery. Speculation is out for a while.
 

RickSanchez

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"Why Reopening Isn't Enough To Save The Economy"
I'm confused as to why NPR refers to this as a "blockbuster" study, but regardless I found the underlying data to be very interesting. In particular this observation regarding states re-opening ...

"Finally, there are state-permitted reopenings: They don't seem to boost the economy either. Chetty and his team compare, for example, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Minnesota allowed reopening weeks before Wisconsin, but if you look at spending patterns in both states, Minnesota did not see any boost compared with Wisconsin after it reopened."
 

RayDunzl

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US Rates:

1592957107106.png


Australia apparently has a similar system, only the top rate is shown below:

1592956814301.png


The more you make, you're bumped into higher "marginal" rates.

---

George Harrison said, "'Taxman' was when I first realized that even though we had started earning money, we were actually giving most of it away in taxes. It was and still is typical."[5] As their earnings placed them in the top tax bracket in the United Kingdom, the Beatles were liable to a 95% supertax introduced by Harold Wilson's Labour government (hence the lyrics "There's one for you, nineteen for me", referring to the pre-decimal pound sterling that was worth twenty shillings)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxman#:~:text=It was and still is,sterling that was worth twenty
 

SIY

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Looking at tax brackets isn't going to tell you the effective tax rate. It's just the bracket you end up in on gross income. Say you make 39,476 gross you only pay the 22%rate on $1 if you're single. Better way to look at it is effective tax rate.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/americ...s-pay-a-lower-tax-rate-than-the-middle-class/
You have to scroll down quite a bit before finding out how this statistic is a phony one. Comparing like for like is more honest, but won’t garner the clicks.
 

Willem

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Inequality is an important subject and is far more complex both conceptually and in measurement terms than a few numbers here and there, and, for example, includes access to education and health. Apart from Thomas Piketty, other less well known but leading authors include Jeffrey Williamson, Peter Lindert and Branko Milanovic. And yes, inequality in the US is greater than in many other economically advanced democracies, and has been on the increase in more recent years.
 

Alice of Old Vincennes

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Looking at tax brackets isn't going to tell you the effective tax rate. It's just the bracket you end up in on gross income. Say you make 39,476 gross you only pay the 22%rate on $1 if you're single. Better way to look at it is effective tax rate.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/americ...s-pay-a-lower-tax-rate-than-the-middle-class/
High tax rates affect behavior. I have reduced output as attorney because of FICA and tax rate. Shifted to real estate rentals and and long term flips. No FICA and depreciation on rentals and long term capital gains on sales. If IRS code flipped I would increase attorney output and decrease realty.
 

Thomas savage

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This threads about the financial implications of covid19.

It's being use now to continue where the now closed covid19 thread left off , if this carries on this one will be closed also .

The fact this has happened has also cemented the closure of the other covid19 thread .

off topic postings have been removed, let's try and keep this thread open .
 

Willem

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With now vanishingly low infection and hospital admission numbers the Dutch government has now relaxed most of the remaining restrictions. What remains and will remain until there is a vaccine is the 1.5 metre social distancing rule. Where this is impractical as in public transport face mask have been made mandatory.
The question is what this will do for our economy. There was about a 6% decline but the signs are the picture is improving. At least the tourist industry should feel better now that travel within Europe is gradually allowed again. For the very open Dutch economy (about two thirds of gdp is exported) the fate of the German economy will be crucial. The big outbreak in an enormous meat processing plant in Germany is troubling, of course. The good news is that this is dealt with pretty aggressively, and that Angela Merkel is a steady thoughtful force. The bad news is of course that this was a disaster waiting to happen, with badly housed migrant labour working at close quarters in a cold and humid environment. Maybe we should all stop eating meat for a while.
Unlike people in the US our pensions are in big pension funds with supposedly guaranteed pay out. So by and large we do not have the worry of privately managing an evaporating portfolio. In the long run our pension funds may get into trouble but they take a very long term view, as they should. Potentially more important for private people is the housing market. It was at an all time high just before the crisis and it seems it is still stuck there, but it is bound to go down quite a lot once sellers accept the reality that there are far fewer willing buyers. This would be a good thing in many respects. The cheap credit of the recent decade has fuelled a surge in demand that has driven up prices well beyond what is realistic (house prices here are largely a function of the price of scarce land and its location). My daughter has just got her first job and we were talking about buying a house. My view is that we or she must wait until the market has adjusted with some 25% lower prices. Of course the price of our own house will also go down but who cares if you do not sell and have only a tiny mortgage remaining.
The people who are taking a real hit are those on temporary contracts. Even though the goverment is offering wage subsidies the contracts of such people are still discontinued. It also happened to my wife. She teaches Dutch as a foreign language to new international academic staff and students and had a part time permanent contract and another day on a temporary contract. That has now been discontinued because of fears the number of international students will collapse even though we have not had any infections in the region for weeks. She will probably be entitled to a few years of severance pay so the impact on our long term purchasing power and hence the economy will be minimal, but she likes her work. For the university the expected decrease in international student numbers is an issue, but what will really happen is something we will only know in September, and then a year later if this has longer term effects on international students' willingness to come to us.
The crisis will also have some lasting effects on how we live and work, I think. In the Netherlands a quite high proportion of people were already working from home and this will only increase, helped by high speed internet in virtually every home and a very good digital infrastructure. Also travel habits will change. Far more people are riding their bicycles to work to avoid public transport, and bicycle manufactuers can hardly cope with the demand. Similarly, I hear many say they will no longer travel 2-3 hours for a business meeting somewhere else in the country, now that we know how to do this online. The same applies to intercontinental flights. I would think nothing of flying to the US for two days to give a paper at a workshop. I will no longer do that, I think, and I will not be the only one. Environmentally this will of course be a good thing, and indeed such shifts are exactly what previous depressions have brought about. Outmoded business practices will go out of the window and new ones will emerge. In particular, the friction of distance will be much reduced, as it was already by online retailing. These are interesting times, with a lot of hardship but also new opportunities.
 
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