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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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Putter

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Not #1 per capita.



Rate of increase, or count of increase?



Isn't everything?



Depends on how and what you choose to count.

It's not very helpful to answer everything with questions rather than actual evidence. Read the cited reference. It shows US cases doubling every 2.5 days or so, a rate of increase that's higher than the other countries. I can't figure out how to import the interactive chart into my post.
 
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RayDunzl

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It's not very helpful to answer everything with questions rather than actual evidence.

It shows US cases doubling every 2.5 days or so

First US confrimed case January 21

If doubling every 2.5 days since the first case: 8,589,934,592 (oops, that would be next Sunday) 1,073,741,824 cases today, 4/5/20.

Nope.
 
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Putter

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First US confrimed case January 21

If doubling every 2.5 days since the first case: 8,589,934,592 (oops, that would be next Sunday) 1,073,741,824 cases today, 4/5/20.

Nope.

The chart I cited used uses the first 100 confirmed cases. Frankly it was not what you need to know, but rather a fairly negative post for which I apologize. It has occurred to me that the statistic I cited would be what is called a lagging indicator. It shows what was happening 2 to 3 weeks ago when we were still not locked down and hopefully the curve will now start to show signs of flattening. Also, if you want to continue your game of 'Gotcha' I won't bother to respond.
 
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MattHooper

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I watched a news release a few days ago. A restaurant owners association stated that according to their figures 18% of the closed restaurants will close for business permanently. In Canada. In a month that figure will be worse and in several months the closure rate will be horrendous.

I'm in Toronto and have already seen numerous restaurants closed for good.
 

RayDunzl

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Also, if you want to continue your game of 'Gotcha' I won't bother to respond.

Nor will I if my responses are taken as a personal affront.

Have a nice day.
 

Doodski

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I'm in Toronto and have already seen numerous restaurants closed for good.
This hit to the economy is going to last for years and years. Soon we will all be wearing masks in public with the expectation to reduce the transmission. People like tailors are making them out of vacuum filters now and sewing those into fabric masks. Whatever it takes. Can't go on like this for years.
 

Blumlein 88

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This hit to the economy is going to last for years and years. Soon we will all be wearing masks in public with the expectation to reduce the transmission. People like tailors are making them out of vacuum filters now and sewing those into fabric masks. Whatever it takes. Can't go on like this for years.
Not going to happen. In the end, you go about your business and let the chips fall where they may. This isn't close to an existential crisis. It's bad. Our reaction to it looks worse. This more than ever makes me loath to listen to prescriptions of chicken little climate change people. And I fully know climate change is a real problem.
 

Frank Dernie

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I'm in Toronto and have already seen numerous restaurants closed for good.
I can see a lot of businesses not surviving this, not just restaurants.
Here we keep being told food supplies are OK etc..
Maybe now but since we import 70% of our food, most from the EU, and Spain is in lockdown how long will this continue?
Farmers here are not going to get their produce picked - the harvest starts soon - since there is no free movement so how are all the pickers going to arrive? Who is going to do it? Up to now Eastern European migratory workers have been doing it.
I suppose we have plenty of newly unemployed who could do it but I see no reason for economic optimism in the short or long term.
I am OK since I am retired. I am only allowed out to walk the dog but I have plenty to do at home. OTOH my pension has lost ⅓ of its value already and it will probably, no certainly, get worse money has lost ~95% of its value since 1970.
It may well take decades to get back to where we were financially, but that, IMO, is not the important thing.
If this has taught us anything it has shown how very, very important a lot of very badly paid people are to our way of life and how very, very superficial and unimportant "celebrities" really are!
 

raif71

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This hit to the economy is going to last for years and years. Soon we will all be wearing masks in public with the expectation to reduce the transmission. People like tailors are making them out of vacuum filters now and sewing those into fabric masks. Whatever it takes. Can't go on like this for years.

Some people are wearing body suits like this guy.... kinda looks like your avatar :)

 

maty

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Thomas savage

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I can see a lot of businesses not surviving this, not just restaurants.
Here we keep being told food supplies are OK etc..
Maybe now but since we import 70% of our food, most from the EU, and Spain is in lockdown how long will this continue?
Farmers here are not going to get their produce picked - the harvest starts soon - since there is no free movement so how are all the pickers going to arrive? Who is going to do it? Up to now Eastern European migratory workers have been doing it.
I suppose we have plenty of newly unemployed who could do it but I see no reason for economic optimism in the short or long term.
I am OK since I am retired. I am only allowed out to walk the dog but I have plenty to do at home. OTOH my pension has lost ⅓ of its value already and it will probably, no certainly, get worse money has lost ~95% of its value since 1970.
It may well take decades to get back to where we were financially, but that, IMO, is not the important thing.
If this has taught us anything it has shown how very, very important a lot of very badly paid people are to our way of life and how very, very superficial and unimportant "celebrities" really are!
As far as horticulture and migrant workers go this has been a big problem for a few years now. Unfortunately British nationals are not capable of doing this work, they are too soft. The youth of the UK are incapable when it comes to manual work. Not only do they lack the desire to work hard they lack the mental capacity and fortitude needed too.

Double whammy is the competition in Holland and Poland etc have invested a lot more in automation. Lack of inward investment over the last 20 or so years is the real problem for us we were just ' getting away with it' before now.

The economic decimation that's coming will be far reaching and profound, best case scenario we will get back to work with some loosening of restrictions around may or June.

Can you imagine the cost of these restrictions, can you imagine people eating out like they did before ? The psychological effect of all this?

There's going to be less wealth, governments are going to be buried in debt for half a century. Then there's the introspection, endless and imo will end up damaging us even more. Confidence will be totally shattered , in time this will destroy some of the social/economic pillars our way of life's been built on .

Or I guess you can see it as a ' controlled burn ' , the resulting land has room to grow and opportunity is abound. Maybe we will get to this point in , 5 years , 10 years ..

It will be what it will be , I'm sure humanity would of had it worse before now . Our life's will continue to be as easy as they've almost ever been in human history. Unless there's a WW on the way.
 

carlob

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I want to be optimist, if they discover a drug effective to treat or prevent the coronavirus soon, like in a month, we might be back in business before summer with the opportunity to rethink a lot of things. I would happily take the economic shock if this is the opportunity to make radical changes in how my country works for example.
 

maty

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I am more optimistic on the large term. The next few months will be terrible on an economic level, but then the economy will pull more strongly than before in many sectors. Others, such as hostelry, tourism, aviation ... will continue to suffer greatly until the European population is not vaccinated. A reindustrialization will take place when certain productive activities will be considered strategic. More will be invested in research and science.

This will help the EU take a step forward and assume more powers from the states and they from their regions in health issues. A common treasury and tax harmonization will also be necessary in EU.

The problem is that Angela Merkel (Ph.D. in Physics, from old East Germany) is on her way out and there are no political leaders in sight of her. At least I do not know them, much less in Spain, they are of a frightening mediocrity, nothing to do with the one that allowed the very great successful democratic transition from the dictaship.
 
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Thomas savage

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I am more optimistic on the large term. The next few months will be terrible on an economic level, but then the economy will pull more strongly than before in many sectors. Others, such as tourism, aviation ... will continue to suffer greatly until the European population is not vaccinated. A reindustrialization will take place when certain productive activities will be considered strategic. More will be invested in research and science.

This will help the EU take a step forward and assume more powers from the states and they from their regions in health issues. A common treasury and tax harmonization will also be necessary in EU.

The problem is that Angela Merkel (Ph.D. in Physics, from old East Germany) is on her way out and there are no political leaders in sight of her. At least I do not know them, much less in Spain, they are of a frightening mediocrity, nothing to do with the one that allowed the very great successful democratic transition from the dictaship.
People unite to meet a common threat more readly than a common goal or some form of mutual advantage.

Currently that threats the coronavirus, before that in the EU area it was the threat to sovereignty. Id expect that to exacerbate following this crisis.

These are political grounds , if they could be discussed in non partisan ways that would be ok.

They can't.

All further posts political in nature will be removed. Posters will be thread banned.


thanks.
 

chlipong

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This is probably the best line of the week

“Testing has no direct influence on the spread of the COVID-19 virus. It merely confirms the presence of the virus,”

Except that testing is one of the measures that South Korea is using and is one of the rare country with no drastic lockdown but with very good results against COVID spreading.
 

maty

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https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200405/coronavirus-espana-ultimas-noticias-7817968

[ 10:31 India confirms two new infections in the Dharavi neighborhood, the largest in Asia

The Indian medical authorities have confirmed the appearance of two new infections in the Dharavi neighborhood in Bombay, where five cases have already been registered amid fear that the spread of the virus will become uncontrollable in the most depressed population in the country. Dharavi is home to more than a million people and is one of the most densely populated places in the world: 280,000 people per square kilometer, about 30 times that of New York City. ]
 
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andymok

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We'll adapt, just like virus, we always do. And there will always be a new equilibrium. And if it's painful, that's because we made bad decisions in the past. We'll learn and we'll make it right.
 
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andymok

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Except that testing is one of the measures that South Korea is using and is one of the rare country with no drastic lockdown but with very good results against COVID spreading.

They locked down their nose and mouth. They wear masks.

They could could have done even better, had they not still go to churches and men spitting all over the streets. The first few weeks was horrible to them.
 

maty

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https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04-05/ultima-hora-y-noticias-del-coronavirus-en-directo.html

[ Spain has registered 674 new deaths in a day from coronavirus, 135 fewer than yesterday. It is the lowest number of victims in ten days and also the first time in that period under 700 deaths. The total of deceased rises to 12,418, as reported this Sunday by the Ministry of Health. Contagions rise to 130,759, with 6,023 new infections in the last 24 hours. Those infected grow 5%, which is the smallest increase since the start of the health crisis. 58,744 people have needed hospitalization (6,861 of them in the ICU) and 38,080 have been discharged. ] :)


https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/30/actualidad/1585589827_546714.html

Daily variation of confirmed cases
Last update: Sunday, April 5 at 11:30 am.
Cumulative confirmed cases growth % and 7-day moving average (average value of the growth rate every seven days)

covid-19-spain-variacion-diario-positivos-05042020.png


PS: Presumably, tomorrow will rebound a little, as every Monday. It is what the weekend has and so many autonomies, unless the lower saturation of the hospitals allows to correct the notificacion, without delay.
 
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