Zero-emission vehicles, their batteries & subsidies/rebates for them.- No politics regarding the subsidies!

[JJB70]

At the least it makes sense to use the exhaust heat to liquify that thick gooey bunker fuel. Maybe they do that already?

Ships have used waste heat recovery units to generate steam and hot water for many decades. The steam can either be used for cargo heating (oil tankers), fuel heating (ships using HFO) or to power steam turbines connected to electrical generators or cargo pumps. They also recover heat from the jacket water, lube oil and modern turbo-chargers often operate with things like waste gates and with power take-in turbines. You can even put generators on the turbo-chargers. A lot of ships also utilize shaft generators and power take-off arrangements to run auxiliary loads from the main engines when tend to be more efficient than smaller auxiliary engines.

 

[Spocko]

This is an interesting state of the industry. Kia was only able to produce 6,000 EV6 globally since its launch in January while Tesla produced over 40,000 Model 3/Y from its Fremont factory during that same time. I believe the EV6 is a superior car in many ways and as far as energy density and charging times, it's easily as good as the Model Y (long range, not Performance) but unless Kia and Hyundai can meet demand, consumers will be left overpaying for a Model Y that should have a far better interior and suspension for a $60,000 car.

 

[j_j]

That's often said, but incorrect. Duty varies with ship type. Conventional ocean going freighters will tend to have a stable load between reaching full away speed and reducing speed at pilot stations, but the load is highly unlikely to be full power, especially today. There are container ships operating at below 20% of MCR on passage. Other ship types have engine loads which fluctuate wildly, particularly those in the offshore energy segment, dynamic positioning is possibly the most hostile engine cycle there is if the ship is operating in windy conditions. It's true that stable operation at high load is where you get the best efficiency, but one of the biggest attributes of diesels is they maintain good efficiency at high turn down ratios. At maximum load gas turbines are very efficient and if you consider the size and weight and simplicity of a GT then if you could operate at maximum load all the time GTs are a very good proposition. Their problem is that as load reduces their efficiency tends to plummet. The WR-21 engine addressed this and has a load - efficiency profile very competitive with a diesel engine by using recuperators, the problem is that it has suffered chronic reliability issues (it's a lemon of an engine).

Agreed that stationkeeping is a very difficult problem and the load is, well, variable is only part of the problem.

But I am surprised that cruising is under 20% of full power. Diesels do have reasonable part-load efficiency, though. I thought that what happened is that at cruise they run one of several engines, at higher to full power. I guess not.

 

[Marc v E]

This is an interesting state of the industry. Kia was only able to produce 6,000 EV6 globally since its launch in January while Tesla produced over 40,000 Model 3/Y from its Fremont factory during that same time. I believe the EV6 is a superior car in many ways and as far as energy density and charging times, it's easily as good as the Model Y (long range, not Performance) but unless Kia and Hyundai can meet demand, consumers will be left overpaying for a Model Y that should have a far better interior and suspension for a $60,000 car.

I think the main reason is that Tesla has planned to scale up ev production and got very good at it over the years. The other car manufacturers make evs at a loss.( I've got this info from Munro on youtube. ) They don't plan to scale up for many years to come. Instead they keep relying on their ice cars. It will probably cause the bankruptcy of many OEMs imo. GM will be the first afaics.

 

[Doodski]

I think the main reason is Tesla has planned to scale up ev production and got very good at it over the years. The other car manufacturers make evs at a loss.( I've got this info from Munro on youtube. ) They don't plan to scale up for many years to come. Instead they keep relying on their ice cars. It will probably cause the bankruptcyof many OEMs imo. GM will be the first afaics.

GM is building EV manufacturing facilities in Canada right now. They are preparing for mass production. Tesla is building a lithium battery mega manufacturing facility here too because it is close to a major lithium deposit. I think in the next few years things are going to change big time. The price of fuel is going through the roof so that's only going to encourage more people to go EV.

 

[Marc v E]

GM is building EV manufacturing facilities in Canada right now. They are preparing for mass production. Tesla is building a lithium battery mega manufacturing facility here too because it is close to a major lithium deposit. I think in the next few years things are going to change big time. The price of fuel is going through the roof so that's only going to encourage more people to go EV.

Iirc they plan to build 50% evs by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The thing is by 2025 I expect ev prices to match or be lower than ice cars. Who in their right mind would then still buy ice vehicles? The Chinese are far ahead and so is Tesla. The rest of OEMs probably won't survive the transition because their assets are hindering them to change to evs and they each have debts around and exceeding 150 billion dollar each.

You only have to listen to what Jim Farley from Ford said in the last few weeks and Herbert Diess from VW to know the rest of OEMs are not going to make it. And even for Ford and VW it will be very hard.

 

[JeffS7444]

By themselves, EVs are shiny toys for the well-to-do, living in prosperous urban centers with all of the amenities that implies. But in moving towards a more sustainable future, it may be far more important to adjust the way our communities are planned, in order to lessen our dependence on privately-owned vehicles in the first place!

I understand the good intentions behind offering express-lane access and free charge stations to ZEV drivers, but this is also pretty elitist, basically providing more perks to the people who least need them.

 

[JJB70]

Agreed that stationkeeping is a very difficult problem and the load is, well, variable is only part of the problem.

But I am surprised that cruising is under 20% of full power. Diesels do have reasonable part-load efficiency, though. I thought that what happened is that at cruise they run one of several engines, at higher to full power. I guess not.

It depends on the ship type and power package. There are diesel electric ships which run additional engines as load increases, and shut them down as it goes down, it's a very common arrangement in cruise ships, offshore support vessels and military vessels. There are also ships with multiple engines geared onto a common shaft which will run and stop the second engine on a shaft according to load to try and optimize efficiency. For big cargo carriers the most common arrangement is still to have a single slow speed direct drive engine, basically because although its the least flexible it is also the most efficient and generally cheapest option. In some sectors diesel - battery hybrid is becoming popular, it works extremely well for ships with a highly variable load profile as a diesel engine runs at maximum power continuously with the system using large batteries to boost engine power or be charged from the engine.
Slow steaming (for some reason the term is still slow steaming even though steam ships all but died out decades ago except in the LNG carrier segment where you still find quite a few) became very popular in 2008 to reduce costs in the financial crisis. Then as the market recovered it became a permanent fixture because of pressure to reduce emissions. Some container ships were designed to cruise at 25kts+, almost overnight they dropped down to 16kts, and because the propeller law shows that power is proportional to the cube of speed that represents a huge reduction in power. The problem is it really does nothing for engine reliability, local emissions or thermal efficiency. For thermal efficiency aggregate fuel use does drop down even though efficiency is also worse (not only because of lower engine thermal efficiency, but also energy recovery systems drop off) but in the case of local emissions such as NOx and PM not only do specific emissions go through the roof (gm/KWHr) but aggregate emissions can also be higher. You can mitigate the worst effects by blanking off turbochargers, fitting new fuel injectors, re-mapping the control system and such like but really running a 70MW at 15MW really isn't a good idea.

 

[JJB70]

I understand the good intentions behind offering express-lane access and free charge stations to ZEV drivers, but this is also pretty elitist, basically providing more perks to the people who least need them.

I am a tree-hugger and advocate reducing emissions to the point of achieving a GHG zero world, but I find something distasteful about people who buy expensive EVs passing blame for killing the planet onto people whose choice of car is pretty much limited to cheap second hand ICE models. I suspect many people would be happy to drive a nice EV if they were in a position to buy one (things should hopefully be changing as more enter the resale market as they come off initial lease and contract purchase schemes).

 

[Marc v E]

I am a tree-hugger and advocate reducing emissions to the point of achieving a GHG zero world, but I find something distasteful about people who buy expensive EVs passing blame for killing the planet onto people whose choice of car is pretty much limited to cheap second hand ICE models. I suspect many people would be happy to drive a nice EV if they were in a position to buy one (things should hopefully be changing as more enter the resale market as they come off initial lease and contract purchase schemes).

There will be many affordable ev models coming from China. Iirc there is also Vinfast from Vietnam, Togg from Turkey and many more new brands. It's like the 1920s all over again!

With high volume production prices will come down. Also the 4680 battery will reduce the batterypack price by half. And being the most expensive component in an ev it will reduce the price. The 4680 production has already started and I suspect it will be ramped up sufficiently within a year.

In short: no worries, the price of evs will come down. And there is a reasonable chance that around 2030 we will have full self driving, making cheap travel for everyone a reality. (I really hope and pray this will be a reality because it will help the elderly-like my parents- being mobile too.)

 

[JeffS7444]

There will be many affordable ev models coming from China. Iirc there is also Vinfast from Vietnam, Togg from Turkey and many more new brands. It's like the 1920s all over again!

With high volume production prices will come down. Also the 4680 battery will reduce the batterypack price by half. And being the most expensive component in an ev it will reduce the price. The 4680 production has already started and I suspect it will be ramped up sufficiently within a year.

In short: no worries, the price of evs will come down. And there is a reasonable chance that around 2030 we will have full self driving, making cheap travel for everyone a reality. (I really hope and pray this will be a reality because it will help the elderly-like my parents- being mobile too.)

Purchase price of the vehicle is only part of the problem: Today's charge times are slow, and unless you own a house equipped with off-street parking and your own private charging station, owning one's own electric car may actually be quite costly in terms of hassle. For those who simply must have their own car, I think the plug-in hybrid is a much more universal solution.

 

[Blumlein 88]

Purchase price of the vehicle is only part of the problem: Today's charge times are slow, and unless you own a house equipped with off-street parking and your own private charging station, owning one's own electric car may actually be quite costly in terms of hassle. For those who simply must have their own car, I think the plug-in hybrid is a much more universal solution.

Who says we must have universal solutions? More than half the car owners have homes where they can charge. Those who don't can choose what fits their needs. Just like we have different cars, trucks and suvs. No universal transportation pod.

 

[JeffS7444]

Who says we must have universal solutions? More than half the car owners have homes where they can charge. Those who don't can choose what fits their needs. Just like we have different cars, trucks and suvs. No universal transportation pod.

Because Separate tends to be Unequal? Already we have choice parking spaces being reserved for EVs, and I don't think it takes any great stretch of imagination to see IC vehicles being restricted from certain urban areas.

Meanwhile, a quick search of "Electric car owner ethnicity" brought up this tidbit: 87% of Tesla owners are white males:
https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2018/11/tesla-owner-demographics/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/oth...ind-by-the-electric-car-revolution/ar-AANpndc

 

[Blumlein 88]

Because Separate tends to be Unequal? Already we have choice parking spaces being reserved for EVs, and I don't think it takes any great stretch of imagination to see IC vehicles being restricted from certain urban areas.

Meanwhile, a quick search of "Electric car owner ethnicity" brought up this tidbit: 87% of Tesla owners are white males:
https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2018/11/tesla-owner-demographics/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/oth...ind-by-the-electric-car-revolution/ar-AANpndc

In 2021 right around 74% of truck owners were white males with an average household income of $128k. Down from about 87% in 2010. Dodge Charger/Challenger ownership was 62% minority males (which I take from what I see to be overwhelmingly black) with an average household income of $110k.

I don't give one whit about the ethnicity of ownership of any car. Anyone with the money can buy any car they want. Further you know one of the main reasons for the difference in the two examples I gave? Age. Dodge has the youngest group of owners. Average age of whites is 58 years old (average pick up buyer age is 55), while average age of blacks is 28 years old in the USA. Dodge has had more success among younger buyers as well as minority drivers.

I think the idea race is restricting ownership of cars as being retarded by people who want to see everything as race based. It appears there may be a difference in what tastes races have in cars, but again some of that is tied up in age. Average age of a Tesla owner in your link is 54 overwhelmingly white. Median age of the population is given as 38 without referencing race. Buyers of expensive cars tend to be older for obvious reasons, and older drivers are more white than younger drivers.

Cars have never been all equal and I hope they never are. The market changes with what demographic it serves and what their needs/desires are. There can never be a single type vehicle that most suits everyone buying cars. That idea is ridiculous.

 

[JeffS7444]

In 2021 right around 74% of truck owners were white males with an average household income of $128k. Down from about 87% in 2010. Dodge Charger/Challenger ownership was 62% minority males (which I take from what I see to be overwhelmingly black) with an average household income of $110k.

I don't give one whit about the ethnicity of ownership of any car. Anyone with the money can buy any car they want. Further you know one of the main reasons for the difference in the two examples I gave? Age. Dodge has the youngest group of owners. Average age of whites is 58 years old (average pick up buyer age is 55), while average age of blacks is 28 years old in the USA. Dodge has had more success among younger buyers as well as minority drivers.

I think the idea race is restricting ownership of cars as being retarded by people who want to see everything as race based. It appears there may be a difference in what tastes races have in cars, but again some of that is tied up in age. Average age of a Tesla owner in your link is 54 overwhelmingly white. Median age of the population is given as 38 without referencing race. Buyers of expensive cars tend to be older for obvious reasons, and older drivers are more white than younger drivers.

Cars have never been all equal and I hope they never are. The market changes with what demographic it serves and what their needs/desires are. There can never be a single type vehicle that most suits everyone buying cars. That idea is ridiculous.

So, if I can get access to perks (including ones funded by your tax dollars) that you can't have, because I can afford a better car, is that okay with you? It's only money after all.

 

[j_j]

Who says we must have universal solutions? More than half the car owners have homes where they can charge. Those who don't can choose what fits their needs. Just like we have different cars, trucks and suvs. No universal transportation pod.

A problem here is short-range vs. long range. For short range an EV makes fantastic sense (and the price will come down with production, you're comparing an industry with 10 year experience to an industry with 100 years of paring down the cost here). For long range, I'm sorry, 1 hour charging every 3 hours does not cut it. Period.

 

[Blumlein 88]

So, if I can get access to perks (including ones funded by your tax dollars) that you can't have, because I can afford a better car, is that okay with you? It's only money after all.

No, but it has happened through out my lifetime. Life isn't fair.

 

[j_j]

So, if I can get access to perks (including ones funded by your tax dollars) that you can't have, because I can afford a better car, is that okay with you? It's only money after all.

EV's will come down radically in price as production and competition ramps up. You're also going to see Calcium-based batteries that have less power/weight but don't combust quite as readily, and a bunch of other technologies come along.

Like I said to somebody else, you're comparing prices from a 10 year old industry to one from a 100 year old industry. Experience on how to make things cheaply will come.

 

[Ron Texas]

EV's will come down radically in price as production and competition ramps up. You're also going to see Calcium-based batteries that have less power/weight but don't combust quite as readily, and a bunch of other technologies come along.

Like I said to somebody else, you're comparing prices from a 10 year old industry to one from a 100 year old industry. Experience on how to make things cheaply will come.

It will be very nice if calcium batteries come along or anything other than scarce lithium, cobalt and nickel. Policy makers are pushing for rapid deployment of EV's which could easily get ahead of technology with high prices and shortages the result. I find it risky to base policy on yet to be developed technology. Some other technologies have shown up in my reading but not calcium.

 

[Blumlein 88]

A problem here is short-range vs. long range. For short range an EV makes fantastic sense (and the price will come down with production, you're comparing an industry with 10 year experience to an industry with 100 years of paring down the cost here). For long range, I'm sorry, 1 hour charging every 3 hours does not cut it. Period.

Well I think it is more like every 4 hours, and there are now some systems that can can cut that 1 hour down to 30 minutes using the 800 volt architectures. Driving an ICE I'd stop every 4 hours and can theoretically gas up and go in 5 minutes, but usually wish to go to the rest room, stretch my legs etc. So it turns into more like 15 minutes. So already the EVs aren't far from that.

If my job was a traveling salesman I wouldn't pick an EV. If I travel a half dozen times a year, I'd put up with the wait those few times to have the other benefits of EV ownership.