What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[carlob]

It seems it is beneficial in for those who suffer from an exaggerated IL-6 response to the virus.

A proper clinical trial is ongoing

http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=49409

"fun" tidbit - from the end of the 50ies to the end of the 70ies, interferon was the holy grail of anti-viral research - you would get headlines about the flu/common cold/any viral infection being cured when interferon would be widely available. Then, in the 80ies, when it became widely available, it appeared that yes, it was part of the necessary immune response, it was also what was causing a lot of the disagreeable symptoms. A simple plan suddenly became more complicated. Then a bunch of other cytokines showed up and the whole thing became very, very complex. Most of those molecules play ambiguous roles, favorable at some level for some, annoying at other levels for others.

less fun tidbit - those drugs (talking about the class in general) are amongst the most expensive commonly prescribed drugs

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK349513/table/T43/

The Italian Drug Agency (AIFA) authorized the clinical trial a couple of days ago, I have read that as of today there are 50 patients enrolled. Roche is supplying the drug for free.

 

[snapsc]

Two interesting articles along these lines of discussion:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/17-700-bottles-hand-sanitizer-155735689.html


https://www.yahoo.com/gma/medical-p...-national-173000270--abc-news-topstories.html

 

[raistlin65]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/17-700-bottles-hand-sanitizer-155735689.html

This guy seems to think people should sympathize with him because he has 17,700 bottles of hand sanitizer that he can't sell because profiteering has been stopped.

Hopefully, a nonprofit will buy them from him at his cost, and then distribute them where needed.

 

[raif71]

Just inhale. Your Immune System will do the rest.

View attachment 54236

looks like dr manhattan or one of the blue men

 

[stunta]

Shit's getting real in Boston area with school closures, working from home, empty train stations, but luckily around my neighbourhood, people are just taking walks with dogs and family. It's nice to see more people out and about. Nice weather helps.

 

[MediumRare]

Has anyone studied Ultraviolet in the 260nm wavelength to help kill these viruses?
I have skimmed some stuff for efficacy on other influenza and it looks like it has some promise although I’m not sure how long it needs and at what strength the UV needs to be.

Surprised I haven’t seen that angle.

That’s the main reason flu goes down in the summer, not higher temps. It’s the sunlight disinfecting clothing.

 

[MattHooper]

Two interesting articles along these lines of discussion:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/17-700-bottles-hand-sanitizer-155735689.html


https://www.yahoo.com/gma/medical-p...-national-173000270--abc-news-topstories.html

Good!* F*ck that guy and any like him! I have a lot more than just "no sympathy" for amoral *ssholes like those re-sellers. I have a "string 'em up" level of antipathy.

*(Good to the degree he loses as much money as possible. Bad of course because he's sitting on badly needed supplies).

 

[andymok]

Be careful about your toilets if you're living in crowded area.

Multiple cases in Hong Kong linked to virus leaked from fecal matter in sewage aerosofted. Make sure the drainage in your neighborhood are all air-tight.

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2020/03/20200314/20200314_223510_350.html?type=ticker

Prof Yuen said: “There is a possibility that when the patients on the 32nd floor are defecating - we know now that the fecal material actually contains the virus - while they’re defecating the fecal material goes into the sewer system.

“There is a vent of air that comes through the venting pipe, which goes to the top floor and maybe aerosolised in the air and then the droplets try to settle but, while at the same time, when there’s a light wind blowing, in which the air current going over the rooftop carries the particles back into the top floors.

“And of course, the 34th floor is the top floor. That is the most dangerous, followed by the 33rd and 32nd floors.”

Prof Yuen added he is uncertain if the venting pipe will continue to produce more infected aerosolised particles.

“So it is just a precautionary measure that we must remove the residents from the top six floors in units 13 and 14 for a period of time.”

 

[raistlin65]

"This review found that the estimated mean R0 for 2019-nCoV is around 3.28, with a
median of 2.79 and IQR of 1.16, which is considerably higher than the WHO estimate
at 1.95. These estimates of R0 depend on the estimation method used as well as the
validity of the underlying assumptions."

Liu, Y., Gayle, A A., Wilder-Smith, A., Rocklöv, J. (2020) The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus Journal of Travel Medicine

https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1396034/FULLTEXT01

 

[TLEDDY]

I look at a plethora of forums and ASR is by far the most informative.

Good job, hive mind!

 

[kschmit2]

A very good explanation of how the spread of the virus can be affected by different measures like social distancing or strict lockdown vs. no restrictions.

Uses a visualization by simulation, really impressive:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...r/?itid=hp_hp-banner-low_virus-simulator520pm

 

[maxxevv]

What could have been done better for Italy:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03...9Ul8G_CcQHEU_-fYZn-oGplGoeYb6orFQhRI93l6A31go

 

[RayDunzl]

Air Travel business forecast from the IATA... last December

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2019-12-11-01/

"Geneva - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecast that the global airline industry will produce a net profit of $29.3 billion in 2020, improved over a net profit of $25.9 billion expected in 2019 (revised downward from a $28 billion forecast in June). If achieved, 2020 will mark the industry's 11th consecutive year in the black."

Update, March 5

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-03-05-01/

"Singapore - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) updated its analysis of the financial impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) public health emergency on the global air transport industry. IATA now sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of COVID-19). No estimates are yet available for the impact on cargo operations."

 

[Soundstage]

Good!* F*ck that guy and any like him! I have a lot more than just "no sympathy" for amoral *ssholes like those re-sellers. I have a "string 'em up" level of antipathy.

*(Good to the degree he loses as much money as possible. Bad of course because he's sitting on badly needed supplies).

He is right. And if the market was free, the price of toilet paper and other supplies would increase with the demand. That would prevent People from buying more than they need. We would still have stocks in supermarkets. Price control is the direct path to wasting of resources.

 

[DuxServit]

This SCMP article is suggesting that the first patient in the Wuhan area contracted the virus as early as Nov 17th. How reliable is the SCMP, anyone know? (Is it just another gov controlled newspaper).

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...nas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

 

[Willem]

The market is indeed an efficient allocation system (I teach that). However, it does not ensure social equality. Is it morally right if in an emergency like this only the rich can have it? The problem is that of the price elasticity of supply: in the short run that is very low. All this is why in emergency situations like wars price controls and rationing are introduced. Not that any of this already applies of course. Here we just have one shark who got bitten himself and that serves him right.

 

[kschmit2]

This SCMP article is suggesting that the first patient in the Wuhan area contracted the virus as early as Nov 17th. How reliable is the SCMP, anyone know? (Is it just another gov controlled newspaper).

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...nas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

SCMP (South China Morning Post):
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/south-china-morning-post/
Mixed factual reporting

 

[maty]

Así evoluciona la curva del Coronavirus en España y en cada CCAA
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/13/actualidad/1584091954_865510.html

Italy - Double in 3 days - South Korea - Spain - Germany - France - Norway

Inaction has very serious consequences.
Moral: Mediocre societies often elect mediocre rulers.

 

[carlob]

What could have been done better for Italy:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03...9Ul8G_CcQHEU_-fYZn-oGplGoeYb6orFQhRI93l6A31go

This sort of nonsense that doctors are picking who's going to have a ICU bed is hard to kill even if I understand that it makes for good headlines. The reality is as follows: Lombardy had 650 ICU beds before the start of the pandemic, 300 more Icu beds were found in two weeks and they are working to add more in few days. At the moment more than 150 intubated patiens have been moved in other regions of Italy with the help of airforce flights. As of yesterday 6pm there are 732 ICU bed used in Lombardy.

The issue is that they predict that in one month if the growth doesn't slow down we could need 3K additional ICU beds in Lombardy and this is out of our capabilities.

Numbers by region: https://statistichecoronavirus.it/regioni-coronavirus-italia/
Italian civil protection site (in Italian) with datasets: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1

 

[carlob]

The biggest issue is to find ventilators. In Italy we have only one company producing them, their entire production is of 500 pieces/year most of that was for export. Now we seized all the ventilators that were ready to be shipped abroad and the factory is tripling its capacity. You cannot buy ventilators from abroad as every country is doing the same so nobody will sell them to you BUT China which already sent us a couple of hundred (used) ventilators and is supposed to send more of them. Same for masks etc. you can count pretty much only on your local production if you have one.